Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk.
As we operate globally, we are primarily exposed to currency exchange rate, commodity price and interest rate market risks. We monitor and manage these exposures as part of our overall risk management program. Our risk management program focuses on the unpredictability of financial markets and seeks to reduce the potentially adverse effects that the volatility of these markets may have on our operating results.
During 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic and related global response significantly impacted economic activity and markets around the world. National and local governments imposed preventative or protective restrictions on travel and business operations and advised or required citizens to remain at home. Temporary closures of businesses were ordered and numerous other businesses temporarily closed voluntarily. The impact of the global pandemic and response has had a material unfavorable impact on global markets, including commodity, currency and capital markets. While some of these markets such as the U.S. and other major stock markets and certain currencies have rebounded significantly in the second and third quarters of 2020, these markets are likely to continue to remain volatile while the situation continues. An economic or credit crisis could occur and impair credit availability and our ability to raise capital when needed. A disruption in the financial markets may have a negative effect on our derivative counterparties and could impair our banking or other business partners, on whom we rely for access to capital and as counterparties for a number of our derivative contracts. We are actively working to mitigate these risks and we largely employed existing strategies that are described below to mitigate these market risks related to currency, commodity and interest rate risks.
We principally utilize derivative instruments to reduce significant, unanticipated earnings fluctuations that may arise from volatility in currency exchange rates, commodity prices and interest rates. For additional information on our derivative activity and the types of derivative instruments we use to hedge our currency exchange, commodity price and interest rate exposures, see Note 10, Financial Instruments .
Many of our non-U.S. subsidiaries operate in functional currencies other than the U.S. dollar. Fluctuations in currency exchange rates create volatility in our reported results as we translate the balance sheets, operating results and cash flows of these subsidiaries into the U.S. dollar for consolidated reporting purposes. The translation of non-U.S. dollar denominated balance sheets and statements of earnings of our subsidiaries into the U.S. dollar for consolidated reporting generally results in a cumulative translation adjustment to other comprehensive income within equity. A stronger U.S. dollar relative to other functional currencies adversely affects our consolidated earnings and net assets while a weaker U.S. dollar benefits our consolidated earnings and net assets. While we hedge significant forecasted currency exchange transactions as well as certain net assets of non-U.S. operations and other currency impacts, we cannot fully predict or eliminate volatility arising from changes in currency exchange rates on our consolidated financial results. See Consolidated Results of Operations and Results of Operations by Operating Segment under Discussion and Analysis of Historical Results for currency exchange effects on our financial results. Throughout our discussion and analysis of results, we isolate currency impacts and supplementally provide net revenues, operating income and diluted earnings per share on a constant currency basis. For additional information on the impact of currency policies, recent currency devaluations and highly inflationary accounting on our financial condition and results of operations, also see Note 1, Summary of Significant Accounting Policies – Currency Translation and Highly Inflationary Accounting .
We also continually monitor the market for commodities that we use in our products. Input costs may fluctuate widely due to international demand, weather conditions, government policy and regulation and unforeseen conditions such as the current COVID-19 pandemic. To manage input cost volatility, we enter into forward purchase agreements and other derivative financial instruments. We also pursue productivity and cost saving measures and take pricing actions when necessary to mitigate the impact of higher input costs on earnings.
We regularly evaluate our variable and fixed-rate debt as well as current and expected interest rates in the markets in which we raise capital. Our primary exposures include movements in U.S. Treasury rates, corporate credit spreads, commercial paper rates as well as limited debt tied to London Interbank Offered Rates (“LIBOR”). The Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom plans to phase out LIBOR by the end of 2021. We do not anticipate a significant impact to our financial position from the planned phase out of LIBOR given our current mix of variable and fixed-rate debt. We periodically use interest rate swaps and forward interest rate contracts to achieve a desired proportion of variable versus fixed rate debt based on current and projected market conditions. For more information on our 2020 debt activity, see Note 9, Debt and Borrowing Arrangements .
See Note 10, Financial Instruments , for more information on our derivative activity.
70
Table of Contents
Value at Risk:
We use a value at risk (“VAR”) computation to estimate: 1) the potential one-day loss in the fair value of our interest rate-sensitive financial instruments; and 2) the potential one-day loss in pre-tax earnings of our currency and commodity price-sensitive derivative financial instruments. The VAR analysis was done separately for our currency exchange, fixed income and commodity risk portfolios as of each quarter end during the periods presented below. The instruments included in the VAR computation were currency exchange forwards and options for currency exchange risk, debt and swaps for interest rate risk, and commodity forwards, futures and options for commodity risk. Excluded from the computation were anticipated transactions, currency trade payables and receivables, and net investments in non-U.S. subsidiaries, which the above-mentioned instruments are intended to hedge.
The VAR model assumes normal market conditions, a 95% confidence interval and a one-day holding period. A parametric delta-gamma approximation technique was used to determine the expected return distribution in interest rates, currencies and commodity prices for the purpose of calculating the fixed income, currency exchange and commodity VAR, respectively. The parameters used for estimating the expected return distributions were determined by observing interest rate, currency exchange and commodity price movements over the prior quarter for the calculation of VAR amounts at December 31, 2020 and 2019, and over each of the four prior quarters for the calculation of average VAR amounts during each year. The values of currency and commodity options do not change on a one-to-one basis with the underlying currency or commodity and were valued accordingly in the VAR computation.
As of December 31, 2020 and December 31, 2019, the estimated potential one-day loss in fair value of our interest rate-sensitive instruments, primarily debt, and the estimated potential one-day loss in pre-tax earnings from our currency and commodity instruments, as calculated in the VAR model, were:
Pre-Tax Earnings Impact Fair Value Impact
At 12/31/20 Average High Low At 12/31/20 Average High Low
(in millions)
Instruments sensitive to:
Interest rates $ 91 $ 142 $ 308 $ 76
Foreign currency rates $ 16 $ 20 $ 31 $ 16
Commodity prices 6 25 42 6
Pre-Tax Earnings Impact Fair Value Impact
At 12/31/19 Average High Low At 12/31/19 Average High Low
(in millions)
Instruments sensitive to:
Interest rates $ 86 $ 70 $ 97 $ 49
Foreign currency rates $ 15 $ 19 $ 25 $ 15
Commodity prices 11 13 14 11
This VAR computation is a risk analysis tool designed to statistically estimate the maximum expected daily loss, under the specified confidence interval and assuming normal market conditions, from adverse movements in interest rates, currency exchange rates and commodity prices. The computation does not represent actual losses in fair value or earnings we will incur, nor does it consider the effect of favorable changes in market rates. We cannot predict actual future movements in market rates and do not present these VAR results to be indicative of future movements in market rates or to be representative of any actual impact that future changes in market rates may have on our future financial results.
71
Table of Contents