Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
ITEM 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
(Dollars in millions, unless otherwise noted)
We are exposed to market risks associated with adverse changes in commodity prices, counterparty credit, interest rates, and equity prices. We manage these risks through risk management policies and objectives for risk assessment, control and valuation, counterparty credit approval, and the monitoring and reporting of risk exposures. The Executive Committee and the Audit and Risk Committee of the Board of Directors have oversight responsibilities for risk management. The following discussion serves as an update to ITEM 7A — QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK of our 2025 Annual Report on Form 10-K incorporated herein by reference.
Commodity Price Risk
Commodity price risk is associated with price movements resulting from changes in supply and demand, fuel costs, market liquidity, weather conditions, governmental, regulatory and environmental policies, and other factors. To the extent the total amount of energy we produce or procure differs from the amount of energy we have contracted to sell, we are exposed to market fluctuations in commodity prices. We seek to mitigate our commodity price risk through the sale and purchase of electricity, natural gas and oil, and other commodities.
Electricity available from our owned or contracted generation supply in excess of our obligations to customers is sold into the wholesale markets. To reduce commodity price risk caused by market fluctuations, we enter into non-derivative contracts as well as derivative contracts, including swaps, futures, forwards, and options, with approved counterparties to hedge anticipated exposures in locations and periods where our load serving activities do not naturally offset existing generation portfolio risk. Portfolio hedging activities are generally concentrated in the prompt three years, when customer demand and market liquidity enable effective price risk mitigation. We expect the settlement of the majority of our economic hedges will occur during 2026 through 2028. We also enter into transactions that further optimize the economic benefits of our overall portfolio.
In general, increases and decreases in forward market prices have a positive and negative impact, respectively, on owned and contracted generation positions that have not been hedged. Beginning in 2024, our existing nuclear fleet is eligible for a nuclear PTC, an important tool in managing commodity price risk for each nuclear unit not already receiving state support. The nuclear PTC provides increasing levels of support as unit revenues decline below levels established in the IRA and is further adjusted for inflation annually through the duration of the program based on the GDP price deflator for the preceding calendar year. See Note 6 — Government Assistance of the Combined Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.
The forecasted market price risk exposure is the risk of a change in the value of unhedged positions. The forecasted market price risk exposure as of March 31, 2026 for our portfolio associated with a hypothetical $10/MWh reduction in the annual average around-the-clock energy price and $5/MWh reduction in around-the-clock spark spread results in an impact to earnings that is not material for 2026 and 2027. See Note 12 — Derivative Financial Instruments of the Combined Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.
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Fuel Procurement
We procure natural gas through long-term and short-term contracts, and spot-market purchases. We also enter into natural gas transportation and storage contracts that allow us to source reliable and cost-effective natural gas for our fleet and to take advantage of favorable market pricing, regardless of when the gas is used in our operations. Fuel oil inventories are managed so that, in the winter months, sufficient volumes of fuel are available in the event of extreme weather conditions and during the remaining months to take advantage of favorable market pricing.
Nuclear fuel is obtained predominantly through long-term contracts for uranium concentrates, conversion services, enrichment services, (or a combination thereof) and fabrication services, including contracts sourced from Russia. The supply markets for uranium concentrates and certain nuclear fuel services are subject to price fluctuations and availability restrictions. Supply market conditions may make our procurement contracts subject to credit risk related to the potential non-performance of counterparties to deliver the contracted commodity or service at the contracted prices. We engage a diverse set of suppliers to secure the nuclear fuel needed to continue to operate our nuclear fleet long-term. Approximately 35% of our uranium concentrate requirements for the remainder of 2026 through 2031 are supplied by three suppliers. To-date, we have not experienced any counterparty credit risk associated with these suppliers stemming from the Russia and Ukraine conflict. In the event of non-performance by these or other suppliers, we believe that replacement uranium concentrate can be obtained, although at prices that may be unfavorable when compared to the prices under the current supply agreements. Geopolitical developments, including the Russia and Ukraine conflict and United States, United Kingdom, European Union, and Canadian sanctions against Russia, have the potential to impact delivery from multiple suppliers in the international uranium processing industry. Non-performance by these counterparties could have a material adverse impact on our consolidated financial statements. See ITEM 2. MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS — Other Key Business Drivers for additional information on the Russia and Ukraine conflict.
Commodity Derivative Activity
The following table provides detail on changes in our commodity derivative contract net assets (liabilities) balance sheet position from December 31, 2025 to March 31, 2026. This table incorporates the unrealized gains and losses that are immediately recorded in earnings. This table excludes all NPNS contracts. See Note 12 — Derivative Financial Instruments of the Combined Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information on the balance sheet classification of the commodity derivative contract net assets (liabilities) recorded as of March 31, 2026 and December 31, 2025.
Balance as of December 31, 2025 (a)
$ 504
Net change in fair value of contracts recorded in results of operations
1,294
Reclassification to realized at settlement of contracts recorded in results of operations (235)
Changes in allocated collateral (265)
Contracts acquired at acquisition date (b)
1,403
Amortization of acquired contracts (b)
(228)
Net option premium paid (received) 15
Option premium amortization 18
Upfront payments and amortizations (c)
(14)
Foreign currency translation 1
Balance as of March 31, 2026 (a)
$ 2,493
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(a) Amounts are shown net of collateral paid to and received from counterparties.
(b) Includes amounts related to contracts acquired as part of the Calpine acquisition in January 2026. See Note 2 — Mergers, Acquisitions, and Dispositions of the Combined Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.
(c) Includes derivative contracts acquired or sold through upfront payments or receipts of cash, excluding option premiums, and the associated amortizations.
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Fair Values
The following table presents maturity and source of fair value for commodity derivative contract net assets (liabilities). See Note 14 — Fair Value of Financial Assets and Liabilities of the Combined Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information regarding fair value measurements and the fair value hierarchy.
Maturities Within Total Fair Value
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 and Beyond
Commodity derivative contracts (a) :
Actively quoted prices (Level 1) $ 51 $ 5 $ (9) $ (13) $ 1 $ — $ 35
Prices provided by external sources (Level 2) 54 206 23 1 1 — 285
Prices based on model or other valuation methods (Level 3) 545 474 416 177 109 452 2,173
Total $ 650 $ 685 $ 430 $ 165 $ 111 $ 452 $ 2,493
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(a) Amounts are shown net of collateral paid to and received from counterparties (and offset against derivative assets and liabilities) of $1,683 million at March 31, 2026.
Credit Risk
We would be exposed to credit-related losses in the event of non-performance by counterparties that execute derivative instruments. The credit exposure of derivative contracts, before collateral, is represented by the fair value of contracts at the reporting date. See Note 12 — Derivative Financial Instruments of the Combined Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for a detailed discussion of credit risk.
Credit-Risk-Related Contingent Features
As part of the normal course of business, we routinely enter into physically or financially settled contracts for the purchase and sale of capacity, electricity, fuels, emissions allowances, and other energy-related products. In accordance with the contracts and applicable law, if we are downgraded by a credit rating agency, especially if such downgrade is to a level below investment grade, it is possible that a counterparty would attempt to rely on such a downgrade as a basis for making a demand for adequate assurance of future performance. Depending on our net position with a counterparty, the demand could be for the posting of collateral. In the absence of expressly agreed-to provisions that specify the collateral that must be provided, collateral requested will be a function of the facts and circumstances of the situation at the time of the demand. See Note 12 — Derivative Financial Instruments and Note 15 — Commitments and Contingencies of the Combined Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information regarding the letters of credit supporting the cash collateral.
We sell output through bilateral contracts. The bilateral contracts are subject to credit risk, which relates to the ability of counterparties to meet their contractual payment obligations. Any failure to collect these payments from counterparties could have a material impact on our consolidated financial statements. As market prices rise above or fall below contracted price levels, we are required to post collateral with purchasers; as market prices fall below contracted price levels, counterparties are required to post collateral with us. To post collateral, we depend on access to bank credit facilities, which serve as liquidity sources to fund collateral requirements. See ITEM 2. MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS, Liquidity and Capital Resources — Credit Matters and Cash Requirements — Credit Facilities for additional information.
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RTOs and ISOs
We participate in all of the established wholesale energy markets that are administered by PJM, ISO-NE, NYISO, CAISO, MISO, SPP, AESO, OIESO, and ERCOT. ERCOT is not subject to regulation by FERC but performs a similar function in Texas to that performed by RTOs and ISOs in markets regulated by FERC. In these areas, power and related products are traded through bilateral agreements between buyers and sellers and in the energy markets that are administered by the RTOs or ISOs, as applicable. In areas where there is no RTO or ISO to administer energy markets, electricity and related products are purchased and sold primarily through bilateral agreements. For activities administered by an RTO or ISO, the RTO or ISO maintains financial assurance policies that are established and enforced by those administrators. The credit policies of the RTOs and ISOs may, under certain circumstances, require that losses arising from the default of one member be shared by the remaining participants. Non-performance or non-payment by a major member of an RTO or ISO could result in a material adverse impact on our consolidated financial statements.
Exchange Traded Transactions
We enter into commodity transactions on NYMEX, ICE, NASDAQ, NGX, and the Nodal exchange (each an Exchange and, collectively, Exchanges). The Exchange clearinghouses act as the counterparty to each trade. Transactions on the Exchanges must adhere to comprehensive collateral and margining requirements. As a result, transactions on Exchanges are significantly collateralized and have limited counterparty credit risk.
Interest Rate Risk
We use a combination of fixed-rate and variable-rate debt to manage interest rate exposure. We may also utilize interest rate swaps to manage our interest rate exposure, including derivatives to lock in rate levels in anticipation of future financings. A hypothetical 50 basis points change in interest rates associated with unhedged variable-rate long-term debt and interest rate swaps would not have resulted in a material impact to our earnings for the three months ended March 31, 2026. See Note 12 — Derivative Financial Instruments of the Combined Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.
Equity Price Risk
We maintain trust funds, as required by the NRC, to fund the costs of decommissioning our nuclear plants. Our NDT funds are reflected at fair value in the Consolidated Balance Sheets. The mix of securities in the trust funds is designed to provide returns to be used to fund decommissioning and to compensate us for inflationary increases in decommissioning costs; however, the equity securities in the trust funds are exposed to price fluctuations in equity markets, and the value of fixed-rate, fixed-income securities are exposed to changes in interest rates. We actively monitor the investment performance of the trust funds and periodically review asset allocations in accordance with our NDT fund investment policy.
A hypothetical 25 basis points increase in interest rates and 10% decrease in equity prices would have resulted in a $1,072 million reduction in the fair value of our NDT trust assets as of March 31, 2026. This calculation holds all other variables constant and assumes only the discussed changes in interest rates and equity prices. See Note 9 — Asset Retirement Obligations of the Combined Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements and Liquidity and Capital Resources section of ITEM 2. MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS for additional information.
Our employee benefit plan trusts also hold investments in equity and debt securities. See ITEM 7. MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS — Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates of our 2025 Form 10-K for further information.
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Text extracted from the filing as submitted to EDGAR. Formatting, tables and exhibits are simplified for reading; the original document is authoritative for anything you rely on.