Item 1A. Risk Factors
Item 1A. Risk Factors.
Regulatory and exchange accountability levels may restrict the creation of Creation Units and the operation of the Trust
Investments in futures contracts are subject to current position limits and accountability levels established by the exchanges. Accordingly, the Sponsor and the Funds may be required to reduce the size of outstanding positions or be restricted from entering into new positions that would otherwise be taken for a Fund or not trade in certain markets on behalf of the Fund in order to comply with those limits or any future limits. These restrictions, if implemented, could limit the ability of each Fund to invest in additional futures contracts, add to existing positions in the desired amount, or create additional Creation Units and could otherwise have a significant negative impact on Fund operations and performance, decreasing a Fund’s correlation to the performance of its benchmark, and otherwise preventing a Fund from achieving its investment objective. On May 4, 2020, CME imposed a more restrictive position limit in September 2020 WTI oil futures contracts with respect to the Oil Funds. In response to CME’s imposition of a more restrictive position limit, global developments, and other factors, the Sponsor modified certain of the Oil Funds’ investment strategies to invest in longer-dated futures contracts. In early July 2020, in anticipation of the roll of the Oil Funds’ benchmark, and in order to help manage the impact of recent extraordinary conditions and volatility in the markets for crude oil and related Financial Instruments, the Sponsor modified certain of the Oil Funds’ investment strategies to invest in longer-dated futures contracts.
Risk that Current Assumptions and Expectations Could Become Outdated As a Result of Global Economic Shocks
During April 2020, the collapse of demand for fuel as a result of economic conditions relating to COVID-19 and other factors created an oversupply of crude oil production that rapidly filled most available oil storage facilities. As a result, market participants who contractually promised to buy and take delivery of crude oil were unable to store the crude oil and were at risk of default under the terms of the May 2020 WTI crude oil futures contract. The scarcity in storage was widespread, and some market participants took the extreme measure of selling their futures contracts at a negative price (effectively paying another market participant to accept their crude oil). As a result, for the first time in history, a period of “extraordinary contango” resulted in certain crude oil futures contracts trading below zero. The effects of rolling futures contracts under extraordinary contango market conditions generally are more exaggerated than rolling futures contracts under contango market conditions and could cause significant losses. The oversupply of oil may continue, impacting futures contracts for other delivery months. Such circumstances may arise as a result of a number of factors, including the following: (1) disruptions in oil pipelines and other means to get oil out of storage and delivered to refineries (as might occur due to infrastructure deterioration, work stoppages, or weather/disaster); (2) any agreement by oil producing nations regarding production limits; or (3) potential government intervention (in the form of grants or other aid) to keep oil producers, and the workers they employ, in service. It is not possible to predict if or when these economic conditions will reverse. Any reversal of these conditions could have a significant negative impact on the performance of the Short Crude Oil Fund.
On February 24, 2022, Russia commenced a military attack on Ukraine. The outbreak of hostilities between the two countries could result in more widespread conflict and could have a severe adverse effect on the region and the markets for securities and commodities, including oil. In addition, sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and other countries, and any sanctions imposed in the future could have a significant adverse impact on the Russian economy and related markets. How long such conflict and related events will last and whether it will escalate further cannot be predicted. Impacts from the conflicts and related events could have significant impact on a Fund’s performance, and the value of an investment in a Fund may decline significantly.
The price of futures contracts can change quickly and without warning. If the price of WTI crude oil futures contracts in the future were to decline significantly or reach a negative price, investors in the Ultra Crude Oil Fund could suffer significant losses or lose their entire investment.
Extreme market volatility and economic turbulence in the first part of 2020 has led to FCMs increasing margin requirements for certain futures contracts, including nearer-dated WTI crude oil and other oil futures contracts. Some FCMs may impose trading limitations, whether in the form of limits or prohibitions on trading oil futures contracts. If the Oil Funds are subject to increased margin requirements, they will incur increased costs and may not be able to achieve desired exposure. The Oil Funds may not be able to achieve their investment objective if they become subject to heightened margin requirements or trading limitations.
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Natural Disasters and Public Health Disruptions, such as the COVID-19 Pandemic, May Have a Significant Negative Impact on the Performance of Each Fund.
Natural or environmental disasters, such as earthquakes, fires, floods, hurricanes, tsunamis and other severe weather-related phenomena generally, and widespread disease, including public health disruptions, pandemics and epidemics (for example, COVID-19 including its variants), have been and may continue to be highly disruptive to economies and markets. These conditions have led, and may continue to lead, to increased or extreme market volatility, illiquidity and significant market losses. Such natural disaster and health crises could exacerbate political, social, and economic risks, and result in significant breakdowns, delays, shutdowns, social isolation, civil unrest, periods of high unemployment, shortages in and disruptions to the medical care and consumer goods and services industries, and other disruptions to important global, local and regional supply chains affected, with potential corresponding results on the operating performance of the Funds and their investments. To attempt to curb the spread of COVID-19, federal, state, and local governments introduced various forms of vaccine and mask mandates, lockdowns, curfews, and other policy initiatives. However, several of the federal mandates were rolled back or eliminated entirely due to actions taken within the courts. In response to COVID’s shock to the labor market and economy overall. The government drastically increased its federal spending for COVID-related relief packages, which came in the form of increases in unemployment insurance and stimulus packages. A climate of uncertainty and panic, including the contagion of infectious viruses or diseases, may adversely affect global, regional, and local economies and reduce the availability potential investment opportunities and accuracy of economic projections. Further, such events can be highly disruptive to economies and markets, significantly disrupt the operations of individual companies (including, but not limited to, the Funds, the Funds’ Sponsor and third party service providers), sectors, industries, markets, securities and commodity exchanges, currencies, interest and inflation rates, credit ratings, investor sentiment, and other factors affecting the value of the Funds’ investments. These factors can cause extreme market volatility, illiquidity, exchange trading suspensions and market closures. For example, market factors may adversely affect the price and liquidity of the Funds’ investments and potentially increase margins and collateral requirements in ways that have a significant negative impact on Fund performance r make it difficult, or impossible, for a Fund to achieve its investment objective. Under these circumstances, a Fund could have difficulty finding counterparties to transactions, entering or exiting positions at favorable prices and could incur significant losses. Further, Fund counterparties may close out positions with the Funds without notice, at unfavorable times or unfavorable prices, or may choose to transaction on a more limited basis (or not at all). In such cases, it may be difficult or impossible for a Fund to achieve the desired investment exposure with its investment objective. These conditions also can impact the ability of the Funds to complete creation and redemption transactions and disrupt Fund trading in the secondary market.
The outbreak of COVID-19 (including any variants), or any future epidemic or pandemic similar to COVID-19, SARS, H1N1, or MERS, could have a significant adverse impact on the Funds and their investments, could adversely affect the Funds’ ability to fulfill its investment objectives, and could result in significant losses to the Funds. The extent of the impact of any outbreak on the performance of the Funds and their investments depend on many factors, including the duration and scope of such outbreak, the development and distribution of treatments and vaccines for viruses such as COVID-19, the extent of any such outbreak’s disruption to important global, regional and local supply chains and economic markets, and the impact of such outbreak on overall supply and demand, investor liquidity, consumer confidence and levels of economic activity, all of which are highly uncertain and cannot be predicted.
Additionally, public health issues, war (such as the war between Russia and Ukraine), military conflicts, sanctions, acts of terrorism, sustained elevated inflation, supply chain issues or other events could have a significant negative impact on global financial markets and economies. A widespread crisis may also affect the global economy in ways that cannot necessarily be foreseen at the current time. How long such events will last and whether they will continue or recur cannot be predicted. Impacts from these events could have significant impact on a Fund’s performance, and the value of an investment in the Fund may decline significantly.
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Text extracted from the filing as submitted to EDGAR. Formatting, tables and exhibits are simplified for reading; the original document is authoritative for anything you rely on.