Item 2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis
ITEM 2. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS.
This information should be read in conjunction with the financial statements and notes included in Item 1 of Part I of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q (the “Report”). This Report includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), that involve substantial risks and uncertainties. The matters discussed throughout this Report that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on the Fund’s and Invesco Capital Management LLC’s (the “Managing Owner”) current expectations, estimates and projections about the future results, performance, prospects and opportunities of the Fund and the Fund’s business and industry and their beliefs and assumptions about future events and speak only as of the date on which they are made. Words such as “anticipate,” “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” “seek,” “outlook” and “estimate,” as well as similar words and phrases, signify forward-looking statements Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. Future economic and industry trends that could potentially impact the Fund and its performance are difficult to predict. Conditions and important factors, risks and uncertainties in the markets for financial instruments that the Fund trades, in the markets for related currencies, in the legal and regulatory regimes applicable to the Managing Owner, the Fund, and the Fund’s service providers, in the broader economy and in global politics may cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed by such forward-looking statements. There can be no assurance that the forward-looking statements included in this Report will prove to be accurate. Factors that could cause results to differ from those expressed in the forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors, including those described in the “Risk Factors” section of the Fund’s Prospectus and elsewhere in the Prospectus and in other SEC filings by the Fund, such as its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2023, as well as the following:
• Risks related to market volatility and fluctuations in the price of assets held by the Fund, including the imposition of trading limitations or trading halts, and the potential loss of investment;
• Risks that the market price of Shares will not correspond to NAV;
• Risks related to market competition;
• Risks related to the market conditions unique to futures contracts;
• Risks related to the impact of regulatory actions, such as position limits, accountability levels and daily limits;
• Risks and uncertainty related to public health emergencies and other adverse public health developments; and
• Risks related to geopolitical conflict, including the on-going hostilities in Ukraine, the conflict in Israel and surrounding areas, the possible expansion of such conflicts and potential geopolitical consequences, acts of terrorism, mass casualty events, social unrest, civil disturbance or disobedience.
You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. Except as expressly required by the Federal securities laws, the Fund and the Managing Owner undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements or the risks, uncertainties or other factors described in this Report, as a result of new information, future events or changed circumstances or for any other reason after the date of this Report.
Overview/Introduction
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (the “Fund”), a separate series of Invesco DB US Dollar Index Trust (the “Trust”)
was formed as a Delaware statutory trust on August 3, 2006. The term of the Fund is perpetual (unless terminated earlier in certain
circumstances) as provided for in the Fifth Amended and Restated Declaration of Trust and Trust Agreement of the Trust, as amended
(the “Trust Agreement”). The Fund has an unlimited number of shares authorized for issuance.
Invesco Capital Management LLC has served as the managing owner (the “Managing Owner”), commodity pool operator and commodity trading advisor of the Trust and the Fund since February 23, 2015. The Managing Owner is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (the “CFTC”) as a commodity pool operator and a commodity trading advisor, and it is a member firm of the National Futures Association (“NFA”).
The Fund establishes short positions in certain futures contracts (the “DX Contracts”) with a view to tracking the changes, whether positive or negative, in the level of the Deutsche Bank Short USD Currency Portfolio Index–Excess Return TM (the “Index”) over time. The performance of the Fund also is intended to reflect the excess, if any, of the sum of the Fund’s interest income from its holdings of United States Treasury Obligations (“Treasury Income”), dividends from its holdings in money market mutual funds (affiliated or otherwise) (“Money Market Income”) and dividends or distributions of capital gains from its holdings of T-Bill ETFs (as defined below) (“T-Bill ETF Income”) over the expenses of the Fund.
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The Fund may invest directly in United States Treasury Obligations. The Fund may also gain exposure to United States Treasury Obligations through investments in exchange-traded funds (“ETFs”) (affiliated or otherwise) that track indexes that measure the performance of United States Treasury Obligations with a maximum remaining maturity of up to 12 months (“T-Bill ETFs”). The Fund holds as collateral United States Treasury Obligations, money market mutual funds and T-Bill ETFs (affiliated or otherwise), if any, for margin and/or cash management purposes. While the Fund’s performance reflects the appreciation and depreciation of those holdings, the Fund’s performance, whether positive or negative, is driven primarily by its strategy of trading DX contracts with the aim of seeking to track the Index.
If the Managing Owner determines in its commercially reasonable judgment that it has become impracticable, including in scenarios wherein the futures market for a DX Contract is thinly traded, or inefficient for any reason for the Fund to gain full or partial exposure to a DX Contract, the Fund may invest in:
• a different month DX Contract other than the specific DX Contract that was originally required by the Index,
• another futures contract substantially similar to the DX Contracts, if available,
• the futures contracts referencing the Index Currencies, or
• a forward agreement, swap, or other OTC derivative referencing the Index Currencies,
if, in the commercially reasonable judgment of the Managing Owner, such an instrument tends to exhibit trading prices that correlate with the DX Contract.
The Index is calculated to reflect the changes in market value over time, whether positive or negative, of short positions in DX Contracts. DX Contracts are traded through the currency markets of ICE Futures U.S. (formerly known as the New York Board of Trade®), under the symbol “DX.” The Index reflects the changes in market value over time, whether positive or negative, of the DX Contracts which expire during the months of March, June, September and December. The Fund seeks to track the Index by establishing short positions in DX Contracts. DX Contracts are linked to the six underlying currencies (the “Index Currencies”) of the ICE U.S. Dollar Index (USDX®) (the “USDX®”). The Index Currencies are the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc. The notional amounts of the Index Currencies included in the USDX® reflect a geometric weighted average of the change in the Index Currencies’ exchange rates against the U.S. dollar relative to March 1973. March 1973 was chosen as a base period of the USDX® because it represents a significant milestone in foreign exchange history when the world’s major trading nations allowed their currencies to float freely against each other.
The Fund offers common units of beneficial interest (the “Shares”) only to certain eligible financial institutions (the “Authorized Participants”) in one or more blocks of 50,000 Shares (“Creation Units”). The Fund commenced investment operations on February 15, 2007. The Fund commenced trading on the American Stock Exchange (which became the NYSE Alternext US LLC) on February 20, 2007 and, since November 25, 2008, has been listed on the NYSE Arca, Inc. (the “NYSE Arca”).
Index Description
The Managing Owner has entered into a license agreement with Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. (the “Index Sponsor”) to use the Index. The Managing Owner pays the Index Sponsor a licensing fee and an index services fee for performing its duties.
These fees constitute a portion of the routine operational, administrative and other ordinary expenses which are paid out of the management fee paid to the Managing Owner (the “Management Fee”) and are not charged to or reimbursed by the Fund.
Neither the Managing Owner nor any affiliate of the Managing Owner has any rights to influence the selection of the futures contracts underlying the Index.
The Fund is not sponsored or endorsed by Deutsche Bank AG, Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. or any subsidiary or affiliate of Deutsche Bank AG or Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. (collectively, “Deutsche Bank”). The Deutsche Bank Short USD Currency Portfolio Index—Excess Return TM (the “Index”) is the exclusive property of Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Neither Deutsche Bank nor any other party involved in, or related to, making or compiling the Index makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, concerning the Index, the Fund or the advisability of investing in securities generally. Neither Deutsche Bank nor any other party involved in, or related to, making or compiling the Index has any obligation to take the needs of the Managing Owner or its clients into consideration in determining, composing or calculating the Index. Neither Deutsche Bank nor any other party involved in, or related to, making or compiling the Index is responsible for or has participated in the determination of the timing of, prices at, quantities or valuation of the Fund. Neither Deutsche Bank nor any other party involved in, or related to, making or compiling the Index has any obligation or liability in connection with the administration or trading of the Fund.
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NEITHER DEUTSCHE BANK NOR ANY OTHER PARTY INVOLVED IN, OR RELATED TO, MAKING OR COMPILING THE INDEX, WARRANTS OR GUARANTEES THE ACCURACY AND/OR THE COMPLETENESS OF THE INDEX OR ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN AND SHALL HAVE NO LIABILITY FOR ANY ERRORS, OMISSIONS, OR INTERRUPTIONS THEREIN. NEITHER DEUTSCHE BANK NOR ANY OTHER PARTY INVOLVED IN, OR RELATED TO, MAKING OR COMPILING THE INDEX, MAKES ANY WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED BY INVESCO CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC FROM THE USE OF THE INDEX OR ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN. NEITHER DEUTSCHE BANK NOR ANY OTHER PARTY INVOLVED IN, OR RELATED TO, MAKING OR COMPILING THE INDEX, MAKES ANY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, AND EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES, OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE WITH RESPECT TO THE INDEX OR ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN. WITHOUT LIMITING ANY OF THE FOREGOING, IN NO EVENT SHALL DEUTSCHE BANK OR ANY OTHER PARTY INVOLVED IN, OR RELATED TO, MAKING OR COMPILING THE INDEX HAVE ANY LIABILITY FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, PUNITIVE, SPECIAL, CONSEQUENTIAL OR ANY OTHER DAMAGES OR LOSSES (INCLUDING LOST PROFITS), EVEN IF NOTIFIED OF THE POSSIBILITY THEREOF. EXCEPT AS EXPRESSLY PROVIDED TO THE CONTRARY, THERE ARE NO THIRD PARTY BENEFICIARIES OF ANY AGREEMENTS OR ARRANGEMENTS BETWEEN DEUTSCHE BANK AND INVESCO CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC.
No purchaser, seller or holder of the Shares of this Fund, or any other person or entity, should use or refer to any Deutsche Bank trade name, trademark or service mark to sponsor, endorse, market or promote this Fund without first contacting Deutsche Bank to determine whether Deutsche Bank’s permission is required. Under no circumstances may any person or entity claim any affiliation with Deutsche Bank without the written permission of Deutsche Bank.
The Index Sponsor may from time to time subcontract the provision of the calculation and other services described below to one or more third parties.
The Index is calculated to reflect the changes in market value over time, whether positive or negative, of short positions in DX
Contracts. The changes in market value over time, whether positive or negative, of DX Contracts is tied to the USDX®. The USDX®
is composed of notional amounts of the Index Currencies. The notional amounts of the Index Currencies included in the USDX®
reflect a geometric weighted average of the change in the Index Currencies’ exchange rates against the U.S. dollar relative to March
1973. March 1973 was chosen as a base period of the USDX® because it represents a significant milestone in foreign exchange history when the world’s major trading nations allowed their currencies to float freely against each other.
The following table reflects the index base weights (the “Index Base Weights”) of each Index Currency as of March 1973 with respect to the USDX ® :
Index Currency
Index Base
Weight (%)
Euro
57.60
%
Japanese Yen
13.60
British Pound
11.90
Canadian Dollar
9.10
Swedish Krona
4.20
Swiss Franc
3.60
Closing Level at Inception:
100.00
%
The Euro was included in the USDX ® in 1999 and replaced the following currencies that were originally included in the USDX ® : Belgian Franc, Dutch Guilder, German Mark, French Franc and Italian Lira.
Please see http://www.invesco.com/ETFs with respect to the most recently available weighted composition of the Fund and the composition of the Index.
Market Risk
Trading in futures contracts involves the Fund entering into contractual commitments to sell a particular currency at a specified date and price. The market risk associated with the Fund’s commitments to sell currencies is limited to the gross or face amount of the contracts held.
The Fund’s exposure to market risk is also influenced by a number of factors including the volatility of interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates, the liquidity of the markets in which the contracts are traded and the relationships among the contracts held. The inherent uncertainty of the Fund’s trading as well as the development of drastic market occurrences could ultimately lead to a loss of all or substantially all of the investors’ capital.
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Credit Risk
When the Fund enters into futures contracts, the Fund is exposed to credit risk that the counterparty to the contract will not meet its obligations. The counterparty for futures contracts traded on United States and on most foreign futures exchanges is the clearing house associated with the particular exchange. In general, clearing houses are backed by their corporate members who may be required to share in the financial burden resulting from the nonperformance by one of their members and, as such, is designed to disperse and mitigate the credit risk posed by any one member. In cases where the clearing house is not backed by the clearing members (i.e., some foreign exchanges), it may be backed by a consortium of banks or other financial institutions. There can be no assurance that any counterparty, clearing member or clearinghouse will meet its obligations to the Fund.
The Commodity Broker, when acting as the Fund’s futures commission merchant (“FCM”) in accepting orders for the purchase or sale of domestic futures contracts, is required by CFTC regulations to separately account for and segregate as belonging to the Fund all assets of the Fund relating to domestic futures trading. The Commodity Broker is not allowed to commingle such assets with other assets of the Commodity Broker. In addition, CFTC regulations also require the Commodity Broker to hold in a secure account assets of the Fund related to foreign futures trading. While these legal requirements are designed to protect the customers of FCMs, a failure by the Commodity Broker to comply with those requirements would be likely to have a material adverse effect on the Fund in the event that the Commodity Broker became insolvent or suffered other financial distress.
Liquidity
The Fund’s entire source of capital is derived from the Fund’s offering of Shares to Authorized Participants. The Fund in turn allocates its net assets to currency futures trading. A significant portion of the NAV is held in United States Treasury Obligations, which may be used as margin for the Fund’s trading in currency futures contracts and United States Treasury Obligations, money market mutual funds, cash and T-Bill ETFs, if any, which may be used for cash management purposes. The percentage that United States Treasury Obligations bear to the total net assets will vary from period to period as the market values of the Fund’s currency futures change. A portion of the Fund’s United States Treasury Obligations is held for deposit with the Commodity Broker to meet margin requirements. All remaining cash, money market mutual funds, T-Bill ETFs, if any, and United States Treasury Obligations are on deposit with the Custodian. Interest earned on the Fund’s interest-bearing funds and dividends from the Fund’s holdings of money market mutual funds are paid to the Fund. Any dividends or distributions of capital gains received from the Fund’s holdings of T-Bill ETFs, if any, are paid to the Fund.
The Fund’s currency futures contracts may be subject to periods of illiquidity because of market conditions, regulatory considerations or for other reasons. For example, U.S. futures exchanges and some foreign exchanges have regulations that limit the amount of fluctuation in futures contract prices that may occur during a single business day. These limits are generally referred to as “daily price fluctuation limits” or “daily limits,” and the maximum or minimum price of a contract on any given day as a result of these limits is referred to as a “limit price.” Once a limit price has been reached in a particular contract, it is usually the case that no trades may be made at a different price than specified in the limit. The duration of limit prices generally varies. Limit prices may have the effect of precluding the Fund from trading in a particular contract or requiring the Fund to liquidate contracts at disadvantageous times or prices. Either of those outcomes could adversely affect the Fund’s ability to pursue its investment objective.
Because the Fund trades futures contracts, its capital is at risk due to changes in the value of futures contracts (market risk) or the inability of counterparties (including the Commodity Broker and/or exchange clearinghouses) to perform under the terms of the contracts (credit risk).
On any business day, an Authorized Participant may place an order with the Transfer Agent to redeem one or more blocks of 50,000 Shares (“Creation Units”). Redemption orders must be placed by 1:00 p.m., Eastern Time. The day on which the Managing Owner receives a valid redemption order is the redemption order date. The day on which a redemption order is settled is the redemption order settlement date. As provided below, the redemption order settlement date may occur up to two business days after the redemption order date. Redemption orders are irrevocable. The redemption procedures allow Authorized Participants to redeem Creation Units. Individual Shareholders may not redeem directly from the Fund. Instead, individual Shareholders may only redeem Shares in integral multiples of 50,000 and only through an Authorized Participant.
Unless otherwise agreed to by the Managing Owner and the Authorized Participant as provided in the next sentence, by placing a redemption order, an Authorized Participant agrees to deliver the Creation Units to be redeemed through DTC’s book-entry system to the Fund no later than the redemption order settlement date as of 2:45 p.m., Eastern Time, on the business day immediately following the redemption order date. Upon submission of a redemption order, the Authorized Participant may request the Managing Owner to agree to a redemption order settlement date up to two business days after the redemption order date. By placing a redemption order, and prior to receipt of the redemption proceeds, an Authorized Participant’s DTC account is charged the non-refundable transaction fee due for the redemption order.
Redemption orders may be placed either (i) through the Continuous Net Settlement (“CNS”) clearing processes of the National Securities Clearing Corporation (the “NSCC”) (the “CNS Clearing Process”) or (ii) if outside the CNS Clearing Process, only through the facilities of The Depository Trust Company (“DTC” or the “Depository”) (the “DTC Process”), or a successor depository, and
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only in exchange for cash. By placing a redemption order, and prior to receipt of the redemption proceeds, an Authorized Participant’s DTC account is charged the non-refundable transaction fee due for the redemption order and such fee is not borne by the Fund.
The Fund is unaware of any known trends or any known demands, commitments, events or uncertainties that will result in or that are reasonably likely to result in the Fund's liquidity increasing or decreasing in any material way.
Capital Resources
The Fund does not have any material cash requirements as of the end of the latest fiscal period. The Fund is unaware of any
known material trends, favorable or unfavorable, in the Fund’s capital resources.
In the normal course of its business, the Fund is a party to financial instruments with off-balance sheet risk. The term “off-balance sheet risk” refers to an unrecorded potential liability that, even though it does not appear on the balance sheet, may result in a
future obligation or loss. The financial instruments used by the Fund are currency futures, the values of which are based upon an
underlying asset and generally represent future commitments which have a reasonable possibility to be settled in cash or through
physical delivery. The financial instruments are traded on an exchange and are standardized contracts.
The Fund has not utilized, nor does it expect to utilize in the future, special purpose entities to facilitate off-balance sheet
financing arrangements and has no loan guarantee arrangements or off-balance sheet arrangements of any kind, other than agreements
entered into in the normal course of business noted above, which may include indemnification provisions related to certain risks
service providers undertake in providing services to the Fund. While the Fund’s exposure under such indemnification provisions
cannot be estimated, these general business indemnifications are not expected to have a material impact on the Fund’s financial
position. The Managing Owner expects the risk of loss relating to indemnification to be remote.
The Fund has financial obligations to the Managing Owner and the Commodity Broker under the Trust Agreement and its
agreement with the Commodity Broker (the “Commodity Broker Agreement”), respectively. Management Fee payments made to the
Managing Owner, pursuant to the Trust Agreement, are calculated as a fixed percentage of the Fund’s NAV. Commission payments to
the Commodity Broker, pursuant to the Commodity Broker Agreement, are on a contract-by-contract, or round-turn, basis. As such,
the Managing Owner cannot anticipate the number of payments that will be required under these arrangements for future periods as
NAVs and trading activity will not be known until a future date. The Fund’s agreement with the Commodity Broker may be
terminated by either party for various reasons. All Management Fees and commission payments are paid to the Managing Owner and the Commodity Broker, respectively.
Cash Flows
A primary cash flow activity of the Fund is to raise capital from Authorized Participants through the issuance of Shares. This cash is used to invest in United States Treasury Obligations, money market mutual funds and T-Bill ETFs, if any, and to meet margin requirements as a result of the positions taken in DX Contracts to match the fluctuations of the Index.
As of the date of this Report, each of ABN AMRO Clearing Chicago LLC, Bank of America Securities, BMO Capital Markets Corp., BNP Paribas Securities Corp., BofA Securities, Inc., Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., Citadel Securities LLC, Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., Goldman Sachs & Co., Goldman Sachs Execution & Clearing LP, Interactive Brokers LLC, Jane Street Capital LLC, Jefferies LLC, JP Morgan Securities Inc., Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, Nomura Securities International Inc., RBC Capital Markets LLC, UBS Securities LLC, Virtu Americas LLC and Virtu Financial Capital Markets LLC has executed a Participant Agreement and are the only Authorized Participants.
Operating Activities
Net cash flow provided by (used in) operating activities was $10.8 million and $26.6 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024 and 2023, respectively. These amounts primarily include net income (loss), net purchases and sales of money market mutual funds and net purchases and sales of United States Treasury Obligations which are held at fair value on the Statements of Financial Condition. The Fund may hold United States Treasury Obligations, money market mutual funds and T-Bill ETFs (affiliated or otherwise) for margin and/or cash management purposes. While the Fund’s performance reflects the appreciation and depreciation of those holdings, the Fund’s performance, whether positive or negative, is driven primarily by its strategy of trading DX Contracts with the aim of seeking to track the Index.
During the six months ended June 30, 2024, $29.2 million was paid to purchase United States Treasury Obligations and $30.0 million was received from sales and maturing United States Treasury Obligations. During the six months ended June 30, 2023, $80.9 million was paid to purchase United States Treasury Obligations and $72.0 million was received from sales and maturing United States Treasury Obligations. $23.9 million was received from sales of affiliated investments and $11.3 million was paid to purchase affiliated investments during the six months ended June 30, 2024. $102.2 million was received from sales of affiliated investments and $66.4 million was paid to purchase affiliated investments during the six months ended June 30, 2023.
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Financing Activities
The Fund’s net cash flow provided by (used in) financing activities was $(10.8) million and $(27.2) million during the six months ended June 30, 2024 and 2023, respectively. This included $2.7 million and $35.8 million from Shares purchased by Authorized Participants and $13.5 million and $62.9 million from Shares redeemed by Authorized Participants during the six months ended June 30, 2024 and 2023, respectively. No distributions were paid to Shareholders during the six months ended June 30, 2024.
Results of Operations
FOR THE THREE AND SIX MONTHS ENDED JUNE 30, 2024 AND 2023
The following graphs illustrate the percentage changes in (i) the market price of the Shares (as reflected by the line “Market”), (ii) the Fund’s NAV (as reflected by the line “NAV”), and (iii) the closing levels of the Index (as reflected by the line “Deutsche Bank Short USD Currency Portfolio Index-Excess Return TM ”). Whenever the Treasury Income, Money Market Income and T-Bill ETF Income, if any, earned by the Fund exceeds Fund expenses, the price of the Shares generally exceeds the level of the Index at that time primarily because the Share price reflects Treasury Income, Money Market Income and T-Bill ETF Income from the Fund's collateral holdings whereas the Index does not consider such income. There can be no assurance that the price of the Shares or the Fund’s NAV will exceed the Index levels.
No representation is being made that the Index will or is likely to achieve closing levels consistent with or similar to those set forth herein. Similarly, no representation is being made that the Fund will generate profits or losses similar to the Fund’s past performance or changes in the Index closing levels.
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COMPARISON OF MARKET, NAV AND DEUTSCHE BANK SHORT USD CURRENCY PORTFOLIO INDEX EXCESS RETURN TM FOR THE THREE AND SIX MONTHS ENDED JUNE 30, 2024 AND 2023
NEITHER THE PAST PERFORMANCE OF THE FUND NOR THE PRIOR INDEX LEVELS AND CHANGES, POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE, SHOULD BE TAKEN AS AN INDICATION OF THE FUND’S FUTURE PERFORMANCE.
NEITHER THE PAST PERFORMANCE OF THE FUND NOR THE PRIOR INDEX LEVELS AND CHANGES, POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE, SHOULD BE TAKEN AS AN INDICATION OF THE FUND’S FUTURE PERFORMANCE.
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NEITHER THE PAST PERFORMANCE OF THE FUND NOR THE PRIOR INDEX LEVELS AND CHANGES, POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE, SHOULD BE TAKEN AS AN INDICATION OF THE FUND’S FUTURE PERFORMANCE.
NEITHER THE PAST PERFORMANCE OF THE FUND NOR THE PRIOR INDEX LEVELS AND CHANGES, POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE, SHOULD BE TAKEN AS AN INDICATION OF THE FUND’S FUTURE PERFORMANCE.
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Performance Summary
This Report covers the three and six months ended June 30, 2024 and 2023. Past performance of the Fund is not necessarily indicative of future performance.
The Index is intended to reflect the change in market value of the Index Currencies. Past Index results are not necessarily indicative of future changes, positive or negative, in the Index closing levels.
The Index provides a general indication of the international value of the U.S. dollar relative to the Index Currencies. The Deutsche Bank Short USD Currency Portfolio Index–Total Return TM (the “Short Index–TR TM ”) consists of the Index plus 3-month United States Treasury Obligations returns. Past results of the Index and the Short Index–TR TM are not necessarily indicative of future changes, positive or negative, in the Index closing levels.
The section “Summary of the Deutsche Bank Short USD Currency Portfolio Index–Total Return TM and Underlying DX Contract Returns for the Three and Six Months Ended June 30, 2024 and 2023” below provides an overview of the changes in the closing levels of the Short Index–TR TM by disclosing the change in closing levels of the underlying DX Contracts of the Index through a “surrogate” (and analogous) index that also reflects the return of 3-month United States Treasury Bills. Please note also that the Fund’s objective is to track the Index (not the Short Index–TR) and the Fund does not attempt to outperform or underperform the Index.
Summary of the Deutsche Bank Short USD Currency Portfolio Index–Total Return TM and Underlying DX Contract Returns for the Three and Six Months Ended June 30, 2024 and 2023
AGGREGATE RETURNS FOR THE
SHORT INDEX-TR
Three Months Ended
Six Months Ended
June 30,
June 30,
Underlying Index
2024
2023
2024
2023
DX Contract
(0.27
)%
0.50
%
(2.43
)%
2.33
%
If the Fund’s Treasury Income, Money Market Income and T-Bill ETF Income were to exceed the Fund’s fees and expenses, the aggregate return on an investment in the Fund would be expected to outperform the Index and underperform the Short Index – TR TM . The only difference between (i) the Index (the “Excess Return Index”) and (ii) the Short Index – TR TM (the “Total Return Index”) is that the Excess Return Index does not include interest income from fixed income securities while the Total Return Index does include such a component. Thus, the difference between the Excess Return Index and the Total Return Index is attributable entirely to the interest income attributable to the fixed income securities reflected in the Total Return Index. The Total Return Index does not actually hold any fixed income securities. If the Fund’s Treasury Income, Money Market Income and T-Bill ETF Income, if any, exceeds the Fund’s fees and expenses, then the amount of such excess is expected to be distributed periodically. The market price of the Shares is expected to closely track the Excess Return Index. The aggregate return on an investment in the Fund over any period is the sum of the capital appreciation or depreciation of the Shares over the period, plus the amount of any distributions during the period. Consequently, the Fund’s aggregate return is expected to outperform the Excess Return Index by the amount of the excess, if any, of the Fund’s Treasury Income, Money Market Income and T-Bill ETF Income over its fees and expenses. As a result of the Fund’s fees and expenses, however, the aggregate return on the Fund is expected to underperform the Total Return Index. If the Fund’s fees and expenses were to exceed the Fund’s Treasury Income, Money Market Income and T-Bill ETF Income, if any, the aggregate return on an investment in the Fund is expected to underperform the Excess Return Index.
FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED JUNE 30, 2024 COMPARED TO THE THREE MONTHS ENDED JUNE 30, 2023
Fund Share Price Performance
For the three months ended June 30, 2024, the NYSE Arca market value of each Share decreased from $17.99 per Share to $17.90 per Share. The Share price low and high for the three months ended June 30, 2024 and related change from the Share price on March 31, 2024 was as follows: Shares traded at a low of $17.67 per Share (-1.75%) on April 16, 2024, and a high of $18.17 per Share (+1.03%) on June 3, 2024. The total return for the Fund on a market value basis was -0.50%.
While not following a smooth path, the US dollar moved higher in the second quarter of 2024, leading to losses for the Fund. The key driver was the Federal Reserve’s more hawkish stance amid persistent US inflation. While the markets had expected for the central bank to start cutting rates imminently, those hopes were repeatedly dashed through the quarter. In comparison, many global economies, including Switzerland, Sweden, Canada, and the European Central Bank (ECB), had kicked off their easing (i.e., lowering interest rates) cycles. Higher interest rates generally make a country’s currency more attractive to hold.
For the three months ended June 30, 2023 the NYSE Arca market value of each Share increased from $18.78 per Share to $18.82 per Share. The Share price low and high for the three months ended June 30, 2023 and related change from the Share price on March 31, 2023 was as follows: Shares traded at a low of $18.53 per Share (-1.33%) on May 25, 2023, and a high of $19.08 per Share (+1.60%) on April 13, 2023. The total return for the Fund on a market value basis was +0.21%.
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The US dollar moved slightly higher in the second quarter of 2023, but continued to bounce back and forth on swaying Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. In April, banking sector volatility leading up to the failure of First Republic Bank, the second largest default in US history and the third failure since March 2023, resulted in heightened market expectations for a Federal Reserve pause. In comparison, other central banks like the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Canada (BoC) continued to tighten, boosting those respective currencies, and making the US dollar less attractive. However, the Federal Reserve not only did not pause rate hikes but continued to signal in May that there could be more to come before year end, thus the positive performance for the US dollar in May. While the US dollar is typically seen as a safe haven currency, given the turmoil and economic uncertainty that was taking place in the US, the Swiss Franc (CHF) benefited from the rise in safe haven demand instead. The dollar returned to losses in June after the Federal Reserve officially paused its tightening cycle.
Fund Share Net Asset Performance
For the three months ended June 30, 2024, the NAV of each Share decreased from $17.98 per Share to $17.90 per Share. Falling currency futures contracts prices for short DX Contracts during the three months ended June 30, 2024 contributed to a 1.60% decrease in the level of the Index and to a 0.27% decrease in the level of the Short Index–TR TM . The total return for the Fund on a NAV basis was -0.45%.
Net income (loss) for the three months ended June 30, 2024 was $(0.3) million, primarily resulting from $0.7 million of income, net realized gain (loss) of $(1.4) million, net change in unrealized gain (loss) of $0.5 million and net operating expenses of $0.1 million.
For the three months ended June 30, 2023, the NAV of each Share increased from $18.78 per Share to $18.83 per Share. Rising currency futures contracts prices for short DX Contracts during the three months ended June 30, 2023 contributed to a 0.78% decrease in the level of the Index and to a 0.50% increase in the level of the Short Index–TR TM . The total return for the Fund on a NAV basis was +0.27%.
Net income (loss) for the three months ended June 30, 2023 was $(0.1) million, primarily resulting from $1.0 million of income, net realized gain (loss) of $1.2 million, net change in unrealized gain (loss) of $(2.2) million and net operating expenses of $0.2 million.
FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED JUNE 30, 2024 COMPARED TO THE SIX MONTHS ENDED JUNE 30, 2023
Fund Share Price Performance
For the six months ended June 30, 2024, the NYSE Arca market value of each Share decreased from $18.43 per Share to $17.90 per Share. The Share price low and high for the six months ended June 30, 2024 and related change from the Share price on December 31, 2023 was as follows: Shares traded at a low of $17.67 per Share (-4.10%) on April 16, 2024, and a high of $18.28 per Share (-0.81%) on January 8, 2024. The total return for the Fund on a market value basis was -2.88%.
The US dollar performed positively in the first half of 2024, leading to losses for the Fund. While the dollar had fallen to end 2023 on expectations for imminent rate cuts, the Federal Reserve stuck to its higher-for-longer rhetoric as US inflation proved more persistent than expected, forcing the market to repeatedly delay easing expectations. In comparison, many global economies including Switzerland, Sweden, Canada, and the European Central Bank (ECB) had kicked off their easing (i.e., lowering interest rates) cycles; higher interest rates tend to make holding the currency more attractive. A resilient US economy and heightened geopolitical tensions also provided some support.
For the six months ended June 30, 2023, the NYSE Arca market value of each Share decreased from $18.50 per Share to $18.82 per Share. The Share price low and high for the six months ended June 30, 2023 and related change from the Share price on December 31, 2022 was as follows: Shares traded at a low of $18.20 per Share (-1.62%) on March 8, 2023, and a high of $19.08 per Share (+3.14%) on April 13, 2023. The total return for the Fund on a market value basis was +1.73%.
The US dollar posted a small gain in the first half of 2023. While the dollar moved lower in the first quarter, benefiting the Fund, prices recovered in the second quarter. To start the year, the dollar retreated rapidly on anticipation for a dovish pivot in the Federal Reserve’s rate hike plans. However, in February, expectations for the Federal Reserve turned more hawkish amid more persistent-than-expected US inflation and a strong US labor market, helping the US dollar reverse all earlier losses. In March, while the dollar initially continued higher, returning speculation for a softer Federal Reserve stance amid the heightened uncertainty sent prices lower to end the quarter. Despite continued talks for a pause in US rate hikes, which actually happened in June, the dollar remained relatively well supported in the second quarter on hawkish Federal Reserve comments (the central bank signaled in May that there could be more rate hikes to come before year end). The dollar returned to losses in June though, after the Federal Reserve officially paused its tightening cycle.
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Fund Share Net Asset Performance
For the six months ended June 30, 2024, the NAV of each Share decreased from $18.42 per Share to $17.90 per Share. Falling currency futures contracts prices for short DX Contracts during the six months ended June 30, 2024 contributed to a 5.00% decrease in the level of the Index and to a 2.43% decrease in the level of the Short Index–TR TM . The total return for the Fund on a NAV basis was -2.82%.
Net income (loss) for the six months ended June 30, 2024 was $(1.8) million, primarily resulting from $1.6 million of income, net realized gain (loss) of $(1.7) million, net change in unrealized gain (loss) of $(1.4) million and operating expenses of $0.2 million.
For the six months ended June 30, 2023, the NAV of each Share increased from $18.50 per Share to $18.83 per Share. Rising currency futures contracts prices for short DX Contracts during the six months ended June 30, 2023 contributed to a 0.14% decrease in the level of the Index and to a 2.33% increase in the level of the Short Index–TR TM . The total return for the Fund on a NAV basis was +1.78%.
Net income (loss) for the six months ended June 30, 2023 was $0.7 million, primarily resulting from $2.0 million of income, net realized gain (loss) of $(0.3) million, net change in unrealized gain (loss) of $(0.7) million and operating expenses of $0.3 million.
Critical Accounting Estimates
The financial statements and accompanying notes are prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP. The preparation of these financial statements relies on estimates and assumptions that impact the Fund’s financial position and results of operations. These estimates and assumptions affect the Fund’s application of accounting policies. In addition, please refer to Note 2 to the financial statements of the Fund for further discussion of the Fund’s accounting policies and Item 7 – Management’s Discussions and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations – Critical Accounting Estimates on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023.
There were no material estimates, which involve a significant level of estimation uncertainty and had or are reasonably likely to have had a material impact on the Fund's financial condition, used in the preparation of these financial statements.
ITEM 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITAT IVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK.
INTRODUCTION
The Fund is designed to track the performance of the Index. The market sensitive instruments held by it are subject to the risk of trading loss. Unlike an operating company, the risk of market sensitive instruments is integral, not incidental, to the Fund’s main line of business.
Market movements can produce frequent changes in the fair market value of the Fund’s open positions and, consequently, in its earnings and cash flow. The Fund’s market risk is primarily influenced by changes in the prices of currencies.
QUANTIFYING THE FUND’S TRADING VALUE AT RISK
Quantitative Forward-Looking Statements
The following quantitative disclosures regarding the Fund’s market risk exposures contain “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the safe harbor from civil liability provided for such statements by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (set forth in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 (the “Securities Act”) and Section 21E of the Exchange Act). All quantitative disclosures in this section are deemed to be forward-looking statements for purposes of the safe harbor, except for statements of historical fact (such as the dollar amount of maintenance margin required for market risk sensitive instruments held at the end of the reporting period).
Value at Risk (“VaR”) is a statistical measure of the value of losses that would not be expected to be exceeded over a given time horizon and at a given probability level arising from movement of underlying risk factors. Loss is measured as a decline in the fair value of the portfolio as a result of changes in any of the material variables by which fair values are determined. VaR is measured over a specified holding period (one day) and to a specified level of statistical confidence (99th percentile). However, the inherent uncertainty in the markets in which the Fund trades and the recurrence in the markets traded by the Fund of market movements far exceeding expectations could result in actual trading or non-trading losses far beyond the indicated VaR or the Fund’s experience to date (i.e., “risk of ruin”). In light of these considerations, as well as the risks and uncertainties intrinsic to all future projections, the following VaR presentation does not constitute any assurance or representation that the Fund’s losses in any market sector will be limited to VaR.
THE FUND’S TRADING VALUE AT RISK
The Fund calculates VaR using the actual historical market movements of the Fund’s net assets.
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The following table indicates the trading VaR associated with the Fund’s net assets as of June 30, 2024.
For the Six Months Ended
June 30, 2024
Description
Net Assets
Daily Volatility
VaR*
(99 Percentile)
Number of times
VaR Exceeded
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund
$
52,799,983
0.32
%
$
388,272
8
The following table indicates the trading VaR associated with the Fund’s net assets as of December 31, 2023.
For the Year Ended
December 31, 2023
Description
Net Assets
Daily Volatility
VaR*
(99 Percentile)
Number of times
VaR Exceeded
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund
$
65,408,515
0.36
%
$
548,310
23
* The VaR represents the one day downside risk, under normal market conditions, with a 99% confidence level. It is calculated using historical market moves of the Fund’s net assets and uses a one year look back.
THE FUND’S NON-TRADING MARKET RISK
The Fund has non-trading market risk as a result of investing in short-term United States Treasury Obligations, T-Bill ETFs and money market mutual funds. The market risk represented by these investments is not expected to be material. Although the Fund purchases and sells shares of T-Bill ETFs on an exchange, it does not establish or liquidate those positions for trading purposes.
QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES REGARDING PRIMARY TRADING RISK EXPOSURES
The following qualitative disclosures regarding the Fund’s market risk exposures—except for those disclosures that are statements of historical fact—constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Exchange Act. The Fund’s primary market risk exposures are subject to numerous uncertainties, contingencies and risks. Government interventions, defaults and expropriations, illiquid markets, the emergence of dominant fundamental factors, political upheavals, changes in historical price relationships, an influx of new market participants, increased regulation and many other factors could result in material losses as well as in material changes to the risk exposures of the Fund. The Fund’s current market exposure may change materially. Investors may lose all or substantially all of their investment in the Fund.
Several factors may affect the price of the Index Currencies (which underlie the DX Contracts), including, but not limited to:
• National debt levels and trade deficits, including changes in balances of payments and trade;
• Domestic and foreign inflation rates and investors’ expectations concerning inflation rates;
• Domestic and foreign interest rates and investors’ expectations concerning interest rates;
• Currency exchange rates;
• Investment and trading activities of mutual funds, hedge funds and currency funds;
• Global or regional political, economic or financial events and situations;
• Supply and demand changes which influence the foreign exchange rates of various currencies;
• Monetary policies of governments (including exchange control programs, restrictions on local exchanges or markets and limitations on foreign investment in a country or on investment by residents of a country in other countries), trade restrictions, currency devaluations and revaluations;
• Governmental intervention in the currency market, directly and by regulation, in order to influence currency prices; and
• Expectations among market participants that a currency’s value soon will change.
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QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES REGARDING NON-TRADING MARKET RISK EXPOSURE
As noted above, the Fund has non-trading market risk as a result of investing in short-term United States Treasury Obligations, T-Bill ETFs and money market mutual funds. The market risk represented by these investments is not expected to be material.
QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES REGARDING MEANS OF MANAGING RISK EXPOSURE
Under ordinary circumstances, the Managing Owner’s exercise of discretionary power is limited to determining whether the Fund will make a distribution. Under emergency or extraordinary circumstances, the Managing Owner’s use of its discretionary powers may increase. These special circumstances, for example, include the unavailability of the Index or certain natural or man-made disasters. The Managing Owner does not actively manage the Fund to avoid losses. The Fund takes both long and short positions in investments and does not employ “stop-loss” techniques.
ITEM 4. CONTR OLS AND PROCEDURES.
For purposes of this Item 4, all references to the “Fund” shall be read to specifically include the Fund and the Trust. Please note that the disclosure controls and procedures and internal control over financial reporting of the Trust are the aggregate disclosure controls and procedures and internal control over financial reporting of the Fund and that of Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund, each a series of the Trust.
Evaluation of Disclosure Controls and Procedures
Under the supervision and with the participation of the management of the Managing Owner, including Brian Hartigan, its Principal Executive Officer, and Kelli Gallegos, its Principal Financial and Accounting Officer, Investment Pools, the Fund carried out an evaluation of the effectiveness of the design and operation of its disclosure controls and procedures (as defined in Rule 13a-15(e) or 15d-15(e) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”)) as of the end of the period covered by this Quarterly Report, and, based upon that evaluation, Brian Hartigan, the Principal Executive Officer of the Managing Owner, and Kelli Gallegos, the Principal Financial and Accounting Officer, Investment Pools, of the Managing Owner, concluded that the Fund’s disclosure controls and procedures were effective to provide reasonable assurance that information the Fund is required to disclose in the reports that it files or submits with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) under the Exchange Act is recorded, processed, summarized and reported, within the time periods specified in the SEC’s rules and forms, and to provide reasonable assurance that information required to be disclosed by the Fund in the reports that it files or submits under the Exchange Act is accumulated and communicated to management of the Managing Owner, including its Principal Executive Officer and Principal Financial Officer, as appropriate to allow timely decisions regarding required disclosure.
Changes in Internal Control Over Financial Reporting
There has been no change in internal control over financial reporting (as defined in the Rules 13a-15(f) and 15d-15(f) of the Exchange Act) that occurred during the Fund’s quarter ended June 30, 2024 that has materially affected, or is reasonably likely to materially affect, the Fund’s internal control over financial reporting.
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PART II. OTHER INFORMATION
Item 1. Legal Proceedings.
Not applicable.
Item 1A. Ri sk Factors.
There are no material changes from risk factors as previously disclosed in the Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, filed February 23, 2024.
Text extracted from the filing as submitted to EDGAR. Formatting, tables and exhibits are simplified for reading; the original document is authoritative for anything you rely on.