Sunrise Realty Trust, Inc. 10-Q

Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk Risk Management We intend for our investment mix to include high quality residential, including multi-family, condominiums and single-family communities, retail, office, hospitality, industrial, mixed use and specialty-use real estate. We believe that SUNS Manager’s rigorous investment process on our behalf will enable us to make investments with potential for value creation as we seek to provide capital to strong sponsors with readily executable business plans while endeavoring to implement significant downside protections. The allocation of capital among our target assets will depend on prevailing market conditions at the time we invest, among other considerations, and may change over time in response to changes in market conditions, including with respect to interest rates and general economic and credit market conditions as well as local economic conditions in markets where we are active. Changes in Fair Value of Our Assets We generally hold our target investments as long-term loans; however, we may occasionally classify some of our loans as held for sale. We may carry our loans at fair value or carrying value in our balance sheets. As of June 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, none of our loans held for investment were carried at fair value. We evaluate our loans on a quarterly basis and fair value is determined by our Board through its independent Audit and Valuation Committee. We use an independent third-party valuation firm to provide input in the valuation of all of our unquoted investments, which we consider along with other various subjective and objective factors in making our evaluations. Our loans are typically valued using a yield analysis, which is typically performed for non-credit impaired loans to borrowers. Alternative valuation methodologies may be used as appropriate, and can include a market analysis, income analysis, or recovery analysis. To determine fair value using a yield analysis, a current price is imputed for the loan based upon an assessment of the expected market yield for a similarly structured loan with a similar level of risk. In the yield analysis, we consider the current contractual interest rate, the maturity and other terms of the loan relative to risk of the borrower and the specific loan. A key determinant of risk, among other things, is the leverage through the loan relative to the enterprise value of the borrower. As loans held by us are substantially illiquid with no active transaction market, we depend on primary market data, including newly funded loans, as well as secondary market data with respect to high-yield debt instruments and syndicated loans, as inputs in determining the appropriate market yield, as applicable. Changes in market yields, recovery rates, and revenue multiples may change the fair value of certain of our loans. Generally, an increase in market yields may result in a decrease in the fair value of certain of our loans, while a decrease in revenue multiples and recovery rates may result in a decrease in the fair value of certain of our loans; however, this is mitigated to the extent our loans bear interest at a floating rate. Due to the inherent uncertainty of determining the fair value of loans that do not have a readily available market value, the fair value of our loans may fluctuate from period to period. Additionally, the fair value of our loans may differ significantly from the values that would have been used had a ready market existed for such loans and may differ materially from the values that we may ultimately realize. Further, such loans are generally subject to legal and other restrictions on resale or otherwise are less liquid than publicly traded securities. If we were required to liquidate our investment in a loan in a forced or liquidation sale, we could realize significantly less than the value at which we had recorded such loan investment. 25 Index Changes in Market Interest Rates and Effect on Net Interest Income Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors, including fiscal and monetary policies and domestic and international economic and political considerations, as well as other factors beyond our control. We are subject to interest rate risk in connection with our assets and our related financing obligations. Our operating results depend in large part on differences between the income earned on our assets and our cost of borrowing. The cost of our borrowings generally will be based on prevailing market interest rates. During a period of rising interest rates, our borrowing costs generally will increase (a) while the yields earned on our leveraged fixed-rate loan assets will remain static, and (b) at a faster pace than the yields earned on our leveraged floating-rate loan assets, which could result in a decline in our net interest spread and net interest margin. The severity of any such decline would depend on our asset/liability composition at the time as well as the magnitude and duration of the interest rate increase. Further, an increase in short-term interest rates could also have a negative impact on the market value of our target investments. If any of these events happen, we could experience a decrease in net income or incur a net loss during these periods, which could adversely affect our liquidity and results of operations. We are exposed to market risks in the ordinary course of our business. These risks primarily relate to fluctuations in interest rates. Our loans are typically valued using a yield analysis, which is typically performed for non-credit impaired loans to borrowers. Alternative valuation methodologies may be used as appropriate, and can include a market analysis, income analysis, or recovery analysis. Changes in market yields, revenue multiples, and recovery rates may change the fair value of certain of our loans. Generally, an increase in market yields may result in a decrease in the fair value of certain of our loans, while a decrease in revenue multiples and recovery rates may result in a decrease in the fair value of certain of our loans; however, this is mitigated to the extent our loans bear interest at a floating rate. As of June 30, 2024, we had one floating-rate loan, representing approximately 43% of our portfolio based on aggregate outstanding principal balances. These floating benchmark rates included one-month SOFR subject to a floor of 4.0% and quoted at 5.3%. We estimate that a hypothetical 100 basis points increase in the floating benchmark rate would result in an increase in annual interest income of approximately $0.2 million and a hypothetical 100 basis points decrease in the floating benchmark rate would result in a decrease in annual interest income of approximately $(0.2) million. Interest Rate Cap Risk We originate both fixed and floating rate loans. These are assets in which the loans may be subject to periodic and lifetime interest rate caps and floors, which limit the amount by which the asset’s interest yield may change during any given period. However, our future borrowing costs pursuant to our potential financing agreements may not be subject to similar restrictions. Therefore, in a period of increasing interest rates, interest rate costs on our borrowings could increase without limitation by caps, while the interest-rate yields on our floating-rate assets would effectively be limited. In addition, floating-rate assets may be subject to periodic payment caps that result in some portion of the interest being deferred and added to the principal outstanding. This could result in our receipt of cash income from such assets in an amount that is less than the amount that we would need to pay the interest cost on our related borrowings. These factors could lower our net interest income or cause a net loss during periods of rising interest rates, which would harm our financial condition, cash flows and results of operations. In terest Rate Mismatch Risk We may fund a portion of our origination of loans, or of loans that we may in the future acquire, with borrowings that are based on various benchmarks, while the interest rates on these assets may be fixed or indexed to SOFR, U.S. prime rate, or another index rate. Accordingly, any increase in an index rate will generally result in an increase in our borrowing costs that would not be matched by fixed-rate interest earnings and may not be matched by a corresponding increase in floating-rate interest earnings. Any such interest rate mismatch could adversely affect our profitability, which may negatively impact distributions to our shareholders. Our analysis of risks is based on our Manager’s experience, estimates, models and assumptions. These analyses rely on models which utilize estimates of fair value and interest rate sensitivity. Actual economic conditions or implementation of decisions by our Manager and our management may produce results that differ significantly from the estimates and assumptions used in our models and the projected results. 26 Index Credit Risk We are subject to varying degrees of credit risk in connection with our loans and interest receivable. Our Manager seeks to mitigate this risk by seeking to originate loans, and may in the future acquire loans, of higher quality at appropriate prices given anticipated and unanticipated losses, by employing a comprehensive review and selection process and by proactively monitoring originated and acquired loans. Nevertheless, unanticipated credit losses could occur that could adversely impact our operating results. We expect to be subject to varying degrees of credit risk in connection with holding our portfolio of loans. We will have exposure to credit risk on our commercial real estate loans and other targeted types of loans. Our Manager will seek to manage credit risk by performing deep credit fundamental analysis of potential assets and through the use of non-recourse financing, when and where available and appropriate. Credit risk will also be addressed through our Manager’s ongoing review, and loans will be monitored for variance from expected prepayments, defaults, severities, losses and cash flow on a quarterly basis. Our Investment Guidelines are not subject to any limits or proportions with respect to the mix of target investments that we make or that we may in the future acquire other than as necessary to maintain our exemption from registration under the Investment Company Act and our qualification as a REIT. Our investment decisions will depend on prevailing market conditions and may change over time in response to opportunities available in different interest rate, economic and credit environments. As a result, we cannot predict the percentage of our capital that will be invested in any individual target investment at any given time. Real Estate Risk Commercial real estate loans are subject to volatility and may be affected adversely by a number of factors, including, but not limited to, national, regional and local economic conditions (which may be adversely affected by industry slowdowns and other factors); local real estate conditions; changes or continued weakness in specific industry segments; construction quality, age and design; demographic factors; and retroactive changes to building or similar codes. In addition, decreases in property values reduce the value of the collateral and the potential proceeds available to a borrower to repay the underlying loan or loans, as the case may be, which could also cause us to suffer losses.