Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
ITEM 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
Market risk is the potential for economic losses to be incurred on market risk sensitive instruments arising from adverse changes in market factors such as interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates, and equity investment risk. Management establishes and oversees the implementation of policies governing our investing, funding, and foreign currency derivative activities in order to mitigate market risks. We monitor risk exposures on an ongoing basis.
INTEREST RATE RISK
We are exposed to interest rate risk relating to our investment portfolio and from interest-rate sensitive assets underlying the customer balances we hold on our consolidated balance sheets as customer accounts.
As of December 31, 2020 and 2019, approximately 30% and 63%, respectively, of our total cash, cash equivalents, and investment portfolio (excluding restricted cash and strategic investments) was held in cash and cash equivalents. The assets underlying the customer balances which we hold on our consolidated balance sheets as customer accounts are maintained in interest and non-interest bearing bank deposits, time deposits, U.S. and foreign government and agency securities, corporate debt securities, and asset-backed securities. We seek to preserve principal while holding eligible liquid assets, as defined by applicable regulatory requirements and commercial law in certain jurisdictions where we operate, equal to at least 100% of the aggregate amount of all customer balances. We do not pay interest on amounts due to customers.
If interest rates increased by 100 basis points, the fair value of our available-for-sale debt securities investment portfolio would decrease by approximately $173 million and $68 million at December 31, 2020 and 2019, respectively.
We have $9.0 billion in fixed rate debt with varying maturity dates. Since these notes bear interest at fixed rates, they do not result in any financial statement risk associated with changes in interest rates. However, the fair value of these notes fluctuates when interest rates change. We also have a committed revolving credit facility of $5.0 billion available to us. We are obligated to pay interest on borrowings under this facility as well as other customary fees, including an upfront fee and an unused commitment fee based on our debt rating. Borrowings under this facility, if any, bear interest at floating rates. As a result, we are exposed to the risk related to fluctuations in interest rate to the extent of our borrowings. As of December 31, 2020 and 2019, we had no amounts outstanding under this credit facility. For additional information, see “Note 12—Debt” in the notes to the consolidated financial statements included in this Form 10-K.
Interest rates may also adversely impact our customers’ spending levels and ability and willingness to pay outstanding amounts owed to us. Higher interest rates often lead to larger payment obligations by customers of our credit products to us, or to lenders under mortgage, credit card, and other consumer and merchant loans, which may reduce our customers’ ability to remain current on their obligations to us and therefore lead to increased delinquencies, charge-offs, and allowances for loans and interest receivable, which could have an adverse effect on our net income.
FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE RISK
We have significant operations internationally that are denominated in foreign currencies, primarily the British Pound, Euro, Australian Dollar, and Canadian Dollar, subjecting us to foreign currency exchange rate risk, which may adversely impact our financial results. We transact business in various foreign currencies and have significant international revenues and costs. In addition, we charge our international subsidiaries for their use of intellectual property and technology and for certain corporate services. Our cash flows, results of operations, and certain of our intercompany balances that are exposed to foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations may differ materially from expectations, and we may record significant gains or losses due to foreign currency fluctuations and related hedging activities. We are generally a net receiver of foreign currencies and therefore benefit from a weakening of the U.S. dollar, and are adversely affected by a strengthening of the U.S. dollar, relative to foreign currencies.
We have a foreign currency exchange exposure management program designed to identify material foreign currency exposures, manage these exposures, and reduce the potential effects of currency fluctuations on our consolidated cash flows and results of operations through the execution of foreign currency exchange contracts. These foreign currency exchange contracts are accounted for as derivative instruments. For additional details related to our foreign currency exchange contracts, please see “Note 10—Derivative Instruments” to the consolidated financial statements included in this Form 10-K.
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We use foreign currency exchange forward contracts to protect our forecasted U.S. dollar-equivalent earnings and our investment in a foreign subsidiary from adverse changes in foreign currency exchange rates. These hedging contracts reduce, but do not entirely eliminate, the impact of adverse foreign currency exchange rate movements. We designate these contracts as cash flow and net investment hedges for accounting purposes. The derivative’s gain or loss is initially reported as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income (“AOCI”). Cash flow hedges are subsequently reclassified into the financial statement line item in which the hedged item is recorded in the same period the forecasted transaction affects earnings. The accumulated gains and losses associated with the net investment hedge will remain in AOCI until the foreign subsidiary is sold or substantially liquidated, at which point they will be reclassified into earnings.
We considered the historical trends in foreign currency exchange rates and determined that it was reasonably possible that changes in exchange rates of 20% for all currencies could be experienced in the near term. If the U.S. dollar weakened by 20% at December 31, 2020 and 2019, the amount recorded in AOCI related to our foreign currency exchange forward contracts, before taxes, would have been approximately $1.1 billion and $900 million lower, respectively. If the U.S. dollar strengthened by 20% at December 31, 2020 and 2019, the amount recorded in AOCI related to our foreign currency exchange forward contracts, before taxes, would have been approximately $1.1 billion and $900 million higher, respectively.
We have an additional foreign currency exchange management program in which we use foreign currency exchange contracts to offset the foreign currency exchange risk on our assets and liabilities denominated in currencies other than the functional currency of our subsidiaries. These contracts are not designated as hedging instruments and reduce, but do not entirely eliminate, the impact of currency exchange rate movements on our assets and liabilities. The foreign currency exchange gains and losses on our assets and liabilities are recorded in other income (expense), net, and are offset by the gains and losses on the foreign currency exchange contracts.
Adverse changes in exchange rates of 20% for all currencies would have resulted in an adverse impact on income before income taxes of approximately $353 million and $147 million at December 31, 2020 and 2019, respectively, without considering the offsetting effect of foreign currency exchange contracts. Foreign currency exchange contracts in place as of December 31, 2020 would have positively impacted income before income taxes by approximately $369 million, resulting in a net positive impact of approximately $16 million. Foreign currency exchange contracts in place as of December 31, 2019 would have positively impacted income before income taxes by approximately $153 million, resulting in a net positive impact of approximately $6 million. These reasonably possible adverse changes in exchange rates of 20% were applied to total monetary assets and liabilities denominated in currencies other than the functional currencies of our subsidiaries at the balance sheet dates to compute the adverse impact these changes would have had on our income before income taxes in the near term.
EQUITY INVESTMENT RISK
Our strategic investments are subject to a variety of market-related risks that could substantially reduce or increase the carrying value of the portfolio. As of December 31, 2020 and 2019, our strategic investments totaled $3.2 billion and $1.8 billion, respectively, which represented approximately 17% and 13% of our total cash, cash equivalents, and investment portfolio at each of those respective dates. Our strategic investments include marketable equity securities, which are publicly traded, and non-marketable equity securities, which are investments in privately held companies that are not publicly traded. We are required to record all adjustments to the value of these strategic investments through our consolidated statements of income. As such, we anticipate volatility to our net income in future periods due to changes in fair value related to our investments in marketable equity securities and changes in observable prices related to our non-marketable equity securities accounted for under the Measurement Alternative. These changes could be material based on market conditions. A hypothetical adverse change of 10% in the carrying value of our strategic investments, which could be experienced in the near term, would have resulted in a decrease of approximately $323 million to the carrying value of the portfolio as of December 31, 2020. We review our non-marketable equity investments accounted for under the Measurement Alternative for impairment when events and circumstances indicate a decline in fair value of such assets below carrying value. Our analysis includes a review of recent operating results and trends, recent purchases and sales of securities, and other publicly available data.