Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
Commodity Price Risk
Our earnings, cash flows, and liquidity are significantly affected by commodity price volatility. Our Revenues fluctuate with refined product prices and our Cost of revenues (excluding depreciation) fluctuates with movements in crude oil and feedstock prices. Assuming all other factors remain constant, a $1 per barrel change in average gross refining margins, based on our throughput of 134 Mbpd for the full year of 2022, would change annualized operating income by approximately $48.2 million. This analysis may differ from actual results.
We utilize exchange-traded futures, options, and over-the-counter (“OTC”) swaps to manage commodity price risks associated with:
• the price for which we sell our refined products;
• the price we pay for crude oil and other feedstocks;
• our crude oil and refined products inventory; and
• our fuel requirements for our refineries.
All of our futures and OTC swaps are executed to economically hedge our physical commodity purchases, sales, and inventory. Our open futures and OTC swaps will expire in April 2024.
Based on our net open futures positions at December 31, 2022, a $1 change in the price of crude oil, assuming all other factors remain constant, would result in $0.2 million change to the fair value of our derivative instruments and Cost of revenues (excluding depreciation).
Our predominant variable operating cost is the cost of fuel consumed in the refining process, which is included in Cost of revenues (excluding depreciation) on our consolidated statements of operations. For the year ended December 31, 2022, we consumed approximately 134 Mbpd of crude oil during the refining process across all our refineries. We internally consumed approximately 3% of this throughput in the refining process, which is accounted for as a fuel cost. We have executed option
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collars to economically hedge our internally consumed fuel cost at all our refineries. Please read Note 14—Derivatives to our consolidated financial statements under Item 8 of this Form 10-K for more information.
Compliance Program Price Risk
We are exposed to market risks related to the volatility in the price of RINs required to comply with the Renewable Fuel Standard. Our renewable volume obligation (“RVO”) is based on a percentage of our Hawaii, Wyoming, and Washington refineries’ production of on-road transportation fuel. The EPA sets the RVO percentages annually. On June 3, 2022, the EPA finalized the 2021 and 2022 RVOs, reduced the existing 2020 RVO, denied 69 small refinery exemption petitions including ours, and proposed that certain small refineries be permitted to use an alternative RIN retirement schedule for their 2019-2020 compliance obligations. To the degree we are unable to blend the required amount of biofuels to satisfy our RVO, we must purchase RINs on the open market. To mitigate the impact of this risk on our results of operations and cash flows, we may purchase RINs when the price of these instruments is deemed favorable. Some of these contracts are derivative instruments, however, we elect the normal purchases normal sales exception and do not record these contracts at their fair values.
Interest Rate Risk
As of December 31, 2022, we had $203.1 million of indebtedness that was subject to floating interest rates. We also had interest rate exposure in connection with our liability under the J. Aron Supply and Offtake Agreement and the MLC Washington Refinery Intermediation Agreement for which we pay charges based on three-month LIBOR. An increase of 1% in the variable rate on our indebtedness, after considering the instruments subject to minimum interest rates, would result in an increase to our Cost of revenues (excluding depreciation) and Interest expense and financing costs, net of approximately $6.4 million and $3.9 million per year, respectively.
We may utilize interest rate swaps to manage our interest rate risk. As of December 31, 2020, we had entered into an interest rate swap at an average fixed rate of 3.91% in exchange for the floating interest rate on the notional amounts due under the Retail Property Term Loan. This swap was set to expire on April 1, 2024, the maturity date of the Retail Property Term Loan. On February 23, 2021, we terminated and repaid all amounts outstanding under the Retail Property Term Loan and the related interest rate swap. We may utilize interest rate swaps to manage our interest rate risk. As of December 31, 2022, we did not hold any open interest rate swaps.
We have several contracts that reference London Interbank Offered Rate (“LIBOR”), some of which terminate after LIBOR is anticipated to cease being reported in 2023. Our facilities that currently reference LIBOR include transition language consistent with the scheduled transition. We do not expect the transition away from LIBOR to have a material impact on our financial condition, results of operations, or cash flows.
Credit Risk
We are subject to the risk of loss resulting from nonpayment or nonperformance by our counterparties. We will continue to closely monitor the creditworthiness of customers to whom we grant credit and establish credit limits in accordance with our credit policy.
Item 8. FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND SUPPLEMENTARY DATA
The consolidated financial statements and schedule required by this item are set forth beginning on page F-1.
Item 9. CHANGES IN AND DISAGREEMENTS WITH ACCOUNTANTS ON ACCOUNTING AND FINANCIAL DISCLOSURES
None.