Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
Commodity Price Risk
Our earnings, cash flows, and liquidity are significantly affected by commodity price volatility. Our Revenues fluctuate with refined product prices and our Cost of revenues (excluding depreciation) fluctuates with movements in crude oil and feedstock prices. Assuming all other factors remain constant, a $1 per barrel change in average gross refining margins, based on our throughput of 124 Mbpd for the full year of 2020, would change annualized operating income by approximately $44.7 million. This analysis may differ from actual results.
In order to manage commodity price risks, we utilize exchange-traded futures, options, and over-the-counter (“OTC”) swaps to manage commodity price risks associated with:
• the price for which we sell our refined products;
• the price we pay for crude oil and other feedstocks;
• our crude oil and refined products inventory; and
• our fuel requirements for our refineries.
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All of our futures and OTC swaps are executed to economically hedge our physical commodity purchases, sales, and inventory. Our open futures and OTC swaps expired in January 2021. At December 31, 2020, these open commodity derivative contracts represent (in thousands of barrels):
Contract type Purchases Sales Net
Futures 360 — 360
Swaps 1,190 (1,000) 190
Total 1,550 (1,000) 550
Based on our net open futures positions at December 31, 2020, a $1 change in the price of crude oil, assuming all other factors remain constant, would result in $0.6 million change to the fair value of our derivative instruments and Cost of revenues (excluding depreciation).
Our predominant variable operating cost is the cost of fuel consumed in the refining process, which is included in Cost of revenues (excluding depreciation) on our consolidated statements of operations. For the year ended December 31, 2020, we consumed approximately 124 thousand barrels per day of crude oil during the refining process at our Hawaii, Washington, and Wyoming refineries. We internally consume approximately 4% of this throughput in the refining process, which is accounted for as a fuel cost. We have economically hedged 25 thousand barrels per month through December 2021 of our internally consumed fuel cost at our Hawaii refineries by executing option collars. These option collars have a weighted-average strike price ranging from a floor of $36.50 per barrel to a ceiling of $60.00 per barrel and expire in December 2021. We do not currently economically hedge our internally consumed fuel cost at our Wyoming or Washington refineries.
Compliance Program Price Risk
We are exposed to market risks related to the volatility in the price of RINs required to comply with the Renewable Fuel Standard. Our renewable volume obligation (“RVO”) is based on a percentage of our Hawaii, Wyoming, and Washington refineries’ production of on-road transportation fuel. The EPA sets the RVO percentages annually. EPA has not yet set volumetric requirements for 2021, which makes it difficult to estimate our obligations. To the degree we are unable to blend the required amount of biofuels to satisfy our RVO, we must purchase RINs on the open market. To mitigate the impact of this risk on our results of operations and cash flows, we may purchase RINs when the price of these instruments is deemed favorable. Some of these contracts are derivative instruments, however, we elect the normal purchases normal sales exception and do not record these contracts at their fair values.
Interest Rate Risk
As of December 31, 2020, we had $270.6 million of indebtedness that was subject to floating interest rates. We also had interest rate exposure in connection with our liability under the J. Aron Supply and Offtake Agreements and the MLC Washington Refinery Intermediation Agreement for which we pay charges based on three-month LIBOR. An increase of 1% in the variable rate on our indebtedness, after considering the instruments subject to minimum interest rates, would result in an increase to our Cost of revenues (excluding depreciation) and Interest expense and financing costs, net of approximately $3.0 million and $3.8 million per year, respectively.
We may utilize interest rate swaps to manage our interest rate risk. As of December 31, 2020, we had entered into an interest rate swap at an average fixed rate of 3.91% in exchange for the floating interest rate on the notional amounts due under the Retail Property Term Loan. This swap was set to expire on April 1, 2024, the maturity date of the Retail Property Term Loan. On February 23, 2021, we terminated and repaid all amounts outstanding under the Retail Property Term Loan and the related interest rate swap. Please read Note 24—Subsequent Events to our consolidated financial statements under Item 8 of this Form 10-K for additional discussion on the repayment.
We have several contracts that reference London Interbank Offered Rate (“LIBOR”), some of which terminate after LIBOR is anticipated to cease being reported in 2021. We are currently working or discussing with our lenders to amend our relevant contracts and will continue to assess and monitor the effect that the transition away from LIBOR would have on our financial condition, results of operations, and cash flows.
Credit Risk
We are subject to the risk of loss resulting from nonpayment or nonperformance by our counterparties. We will continue to closely monitor the creditworthiness of customers to whom we grant credit and establish credit limits in accordance with our credit policy.
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Item 8. FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND SUPPLEMENTARY DATA
The consolidated financial statements and schedule required by this item are set forth beginning on page F-1.
Item 9. CHANGES IN AND DISAGREEMENTS WITH ACCOUNTANTS ON ACCOUNTING AND FINANCIAL DISCLOSURES
None.