NELNET INC 10-Q

ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS The following risk factors provide supplements and updates to the risk factors described in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019 in response to Item 1A of Part I of such Form 10-K, and the Company's Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q for the quarters ended March 31, 2020 and June 30, 2020 in response to Item 1A of Part II of such Form 10-Q: The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely impacted our results of operations, and could continue to adversely impact our results of operations, as well as adversely impact our businesses, financial condition, and/or cash flows. Beginning in March 2020, the coronavirus 2019 or COVID-19 (“COVID-19”) pandemic resulted in many businesses and schools closing or reducing hours throughout the U.S. to combat the spread of COVID-19, and states and local jurisdictions implementing various containment efforts, including lockdowns on non-essential business and other business restrictions, stay-at-home orders, and shelter-in-place orders. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant disruption to the U.S. and world economies, including significantly higher unemployment and underemployment, significantly lower interest rates, and extreme volatility in the U.S. and world markets. These effects have adversely impacted our results of operations for the nine months ended September 30, 2020, and if these effects continue for a prolonged period or result in sustained economic stress or recession, they could have a material adverse impact on us in a number of ways related to credit, interest rates, operations, and other risks as described in more detail below. 70 Credit Risks COVID-19 is having far reaching, negative impacts on individuals, businesses, and, consequently, the overall economy. Specifically, COVID-19 has materially disrupted business operations, resulting in significantly higher levels of unemployment or underemployment. As a result, many individual student and consumer borrowers have experienced financial hardship, making it difficult, if not impossible, to meet loan payment obligations without temporary assistance, and we expect that more borrowers will be similarly affected the longer the COVID-19 pandemic continues. We are monitoring key metrics as early warning indicators of financial hardship, including changes in weekly unemployment claims, enrollment in auto-debit payments, requests for new forbearances, enrollment in hardship payment plans, and early delinquency metrics. Due to these circumstances, in the first quarter of 2020, we recognized an increase to the expense provision for loan losses of $63.0 million (pre-tax) and an impairment charge on our beneficial interest in consumer loans securitizations of $26.3 million (pre-tax). The increase in the provision for loan losses and impairment expense were based on an evaluation of current and forecasted economic conditions, directly taking into consideration the negative impact of COVID-19 on the U.S. economy. We evaluated and considered several forecasted economic scenarios when making these adjustments. We also considered the characteristics of our loan portfolios and their expected behavior in the forecasted economic scenarios. We update our evaluation of current and forecasted economic conditions each reporting period and adjust our allowance for loan losses as appropriate. If future economic conditions as a result of COVID-19 are significantly worse than what was assumed as a part of these assessments, specifically related to the severity and length of the downturn and the timing and extent of subsequent recovery, it could result in additional allowance for loan losses and impairment charges being recorded in future periods. Interest Rate Risks Our net interest income and profitability have been and could further be negatively affected by volatility in interest rates caused by uncertainties stemming from COVID-19. In March 2020, the Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate to a range from 0 to 0.25 percent, citing concerns about the impact of COVID-19 on markets and stress in the energy sector. A prolonged period of extremely volatile and unstable market conditions would likely increase our funding costs and negatively affect market risk mitigation strategies. Higher income volatility from changes in interest rates and spreads to benchmark indices has caused and could cause a loss of net interest income and adverse changes in current fair value measurements of our assets and liabilities. Fluctuations in interest rates have impacted and will continue to impact both the level of income and expense recorded on most of our assets and liabilities and the value of all interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities, which in turn could have a material adverse effect on our net income, operating results, or financial condition. For example, during the first and second quarters of 2020, we experienced a compression in variable loan spread due to a significant widening of the basis between the asset and debt indices in which we earn interest on our loans and fund such loans. This widening was the result of a significant decrease in interest rates beginning in March 2020 as a result of COVID-19. In a declining interest rate environment, student loan spread is compressed, due to the timing of interest rate resets on our assets occurring daily in contrast to the timing of the interest resets on our debt that occurs either monthly or quarterly. Although such compression is generally expected to be mitigated over time as interest rates on our debt are reset to reflect the lower interest rate environment, interest rate volatility may continue to have an adverse impact on us. Operational Risks The majority of our employees have had to move to a work-from-home environment. We have never had to run our operations to such extent remotely for an extended period of time, and it is possible we will encounter significant challenges to running our businesses. Our operations rely on the efficient and secure collection, processing, storage, and transmission of personal, confidential, and other information in a significant number of customer transactions on a continuous basis through our computer systems and networks and those of our third-party service providers. Unanticipated issues arising from handling personal, confidential, and other information from a less efficient work-from-home environment could adversely impact our operations and lead to greater risks for us, including cybersecurity risks. Beginning in March 2020, schools largely moved to on-line classes for their students. Although many schools moved to on-campus learning beginning with the 2020/2021 academic year, it is uncertain if, and the extent to which, they will have to move back to on-line classes during the academic term if the COVID-19 pandemic increases in severity. The COVID-19 pandemic has and may continue to impact demand for our education technologies, services, and payment processing products and services. Under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (the “CARES Act”) signed into law on March 27, 2020, federal student loan payments and interest accruals were suspended on all loans owned by the Department of Education (the “Department”) until September 30, 2020. The Department instructed us and other student loan servicers to apply the benefits of 71 the law retroactively to March 13, 2020, when the President declared a state of emergency related to COVID-19. On August 8, 2020, the President issued a memorandum extending the CARES Act federal student loan borrower relief provisions until December 31, 2020. We will receive less servicing revenue per borrower based on borrower status through the expiration of these provisions. We currently anticipate revenue per borrower will return to pre-COVID-19 levels in the first quarter 2021. While federal student loan payments are suspended, our operating expenses have been and will continue to be lower due to a significant reduction of borrower statement printing and postage costs. In addition, revenue from the Department for originating consolidation loans was adversely impacted as a result of borrowers receiving relief on their existing loans, thus not initiating a consolidation. We currently anticipate this revenue will continue to be negatively impacted while student loan payments and interest accruals are suspended. During the second and third quarters of 2020, FFELP, private education, and consumer loan servicing revenue was adversely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, due to reduced or eliminated delinquency outreach to borrowers, holds on claim filings, and reduced or eliminated late fees processing. In addition, origination fee revenue was negatively impacted as borrowers are less likely to refinance their loans when they are receiving certain relief measures from their current lender. We currently anticipate this trend will continue in future periods that are impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, with the magnitude based on the extent to which existing or additional borrower relief policies and activities are implemented or extended by servicing customers. If the student loan borrower relief provisions of the CARES Act were potentially extended past December 31, 2020 and/or new legislative or regulatory student loan borrower relief measures similar to such provisions of the CARES Act were to become effective, the levels and timing of future servicing revenues could continue to be impacted in a similar manner through the extended period of time that such provisions or measures are in effect. Although the CARES Act does not apply to our FFELP loans, private education loans, or consumer loans, several states have announced various initiatives to suspend payment obligations for private education loan borrowers in those states, and we are proactively providing relief for our FFELP, private education, and consumer loan borrowers. In addition, there currently are federal legislative proposals that would provide borrower relief with respect to commercially-held FFELP loans, such as our FFELP loans. For example, on October 1, 2020, the U.S. House of Representatives passed an updated version of the previously passed Heroes Act (the “Amended Heroes Act”) which would amend the CARES Act to define “federal student loan” to include commercially-held FFELP loans such as our FFELP loans, and require the Department to pay the amount of interest due on the unpaid principal to the holders of commercially-held FFELP loans on a monthly basis. The Amended Heroes Act would also amend the CARES Act to extend suspension of principal payments, no interest accrual, and other benefits for FFELP student loan borrowers through September 30, 2021. There can be no assurance as to whether the Amended Heroes Act or any similar legislative proposal will become law or, if any become law, the nature of any changes to their current provisions or as to the timing of their enactment or implementation. Due to uncertainties regarding, among other things, the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic and any new legislation, regulations, guidance, or widely accepted practices with respect to relief to loan borrowers, we are not able to estimate the ultimate impact that debt relief measures will have on our results of operations. The CARES Act and other COVID-19-related borrower relief measures have resulted in, and may continue to result in, certain processing and other changes within our loan servicing operations, including the processing of automatic forbearances, special payment instructions, and special credit reporting. Such changes involve additional regulatory and other complexities, uncertainties, and matters of interpretation. In addition, such COVID-19 regulatory measures and associated operational changes increase the risk that noncompliance with applicable laws, regulations, and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau guidance could result in penalties, litigation, reputation damage, and a loss of customers. Liquidity and Capital Resources We currently believe our liquidity and capital resources position is strong, and we expect to be able to fund our business operations for the foreseeable future. We also currently plan to continue making regular quarterly dividend payments on our Class A and Class B common stock, subject to future earnings, capital requirements, financial condition, and other factors. However, if circumstances surrounding COVID-19 continue to change in significantly adverse ways and/or if the pandemic continues for an extended period of time, our liquidity and capital resources position could be materially and adversely affected, which could adversely impact our businesses, cash flows (including forecasted cash flows from our asset-backed securitizations), and overall financial condition, and could also result in a reduction, suspension, or discontinuation of quarterly dividend payments on our Class A and Class B common stock. * * * * * The extent to which the COVID-19 pandemic impacts our businesses, results of operations, financial condition, and/or cash flows will depend on future developments, which are highly uncertain and largely beyond our control, including, among others: the scope, severity, and duration of the pandemic; the number of our employees, borrowers, customers, and vendors adversely 72 affected by the pandemic; the impact of the pandemic on schools, student enrollment, and the need for student and consumer loans; the broader public health and economic dislocations resulting from the pandemic; the actions taken by governmental authorities to limit the public health, financial, and economic impacts of the pandemic; any further legislative or regulatory changes that suspend or reduce payments or cancel or discharge obligations for student or consumer loan borrowers; any reputational damage related to the broader reception and perception of our response to the pandemic; and the impact of the pandemic on local, U.S., and world economies. However, as with many other businesses, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, or any other pandemic, on our businesses could be material and adverse. To the extent that the COVID-19 pandemic continues to adversely affect the U.S. and world economies and/or adversely affects our businesses, results of operations, financial condition, and/or cash flows, it may also have the effect of increasing the likelihood and/or magnitude of other risks described in the "Risk Factors" section of our 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K or risks described in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Our largest fee-based customer, the Department of Education, represented 30 percent of our revenue in 2019. Failure to extend the Department contracts or obtain new Department contracts in the Department's NextGen or ISS procurement processes, our inability to consistently surpass competitor performance metrics, or unfavorable contract modifications or interpretations, could significantly lower servicing revenue and hinder future service opportunities. Our subsidiaries Nelnet Servicing, LLC (“Nelnet Servicing”) and Great Lakes Educational Loan Services, Inc. (“Great Lakes”) are two of four large private sector companies (referred to as Title IV Additional Servicers, or “TIVAS”) that have student loan servicing contracts awarded by the Department in June 2009 to provide additional servicing capacity for loans owned by the Department. The Department also has contracts with approximately 30 not-for-profit (“NFP”) entities to service student loans, although currently four NFP servicers service the volume allocated to these entities. As of September 30, 2020, Nelnet Servicing was servicing $189.9 billion of student loans for 5.6 million borrowers under its contract, and Great Lakes was servicing $249.7 billion of student loans for 7.5 million borrowers under its contract. These contracts represented 30 percent of our revenue in 2019, and for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2020, we recognized a total of $81.6 million and $249.3 million in revenue from the Department under these contracts, respectively. The current servicing contracts with the Department expire on December 14, 2020 and provide the potential for two additional six-month extensions at the Department’s discretion through December 14, 2021. On October 13, 2020, Nelnet Servicing and Great Lakes received correspondence from the Department indicating the Department's intent to exercise the first additional six-month extension of the current servicing contracts, from December 14, 2020 to approximately June 15, 2021. The correspondence served only as a non-binding notice of intent that does not commit the Department to extend the contracts, and any formal extension of the contracts will occur only upon a unilateral modification by the Department to the contracts. The Department is conducting a contract procurement process entitled Next Generation Financial Services Environment (“NextGen”) for a new framework for the servicing of all student loans owned by the Department. On January 15, 2019, the Department issued solicitations for various components of NextGen. For the currently existing component of NextGen, we received an unfavorable determination by the Department with respect to our proposal, and contracts were awarded to other parties in June 2020. On October 28, 2020, the Department issued a new federal loan servicing solicitation for an Interim Servicing Solution ("ISS"). ISS is a follow-on to the existing Title IV Additional Servicing and NFP Servicing contracts, which would award a full system and servicing solution to two providers. Responses for the ISS solicitation are due December 9, 2020. We fully intend to respond to the ISS solicitation. In the event that our servicing contracts are not extended beyond the current expiration date or we are not chosen as a subsequent servicer, loan servicing revenue would decrease significantly. There are significant risks to us and uncertainties regarding the current Department contracts and potential future Department contracts, including the uncertain nature of the Department's awards of new NextGen contracts to other service providers and the pending and uncertain nature of other components of the NextGen contract procurement process and the ISS contract procurement process, which could be subject to potential delays, cancellations, or material changes to the structure of the contract procurement process; the possibility that new contract awards and evaluations of proposals may be challenged by various interested parties and may not be finalized or implemented within the currently anticipated time frame or at all; risks that we may not be successful in obtaining any new contracts with the Department; and risks and uncertainties as to the terms and requirements under a potential new contract or contracts with the Department. We cannot predict the timing, nature, or ultimate outcome of the Department's NextGen contract procurement process or the ISS solicitation. New loan volume is currently allocated among the four TIVAS and four NFP servicers based on certain performance metrics established by the Department and compared among all loan servicers in this group. The amount of future allocations of new 73 loan volume could be negatively impacted if we are unable to consistently surpass comparable competitor and/or other performance metrics. In the event the current Department servicing contracts become subject to unfavorable modifications or interpretations by the Department, loan servicing revenue could decrease significantly and/or operating costs to perform the contracts could increase significantly. For example, as of January 2020, a change instituted by the Department required enrollment in the Ongoing Security Authorization (OSA) program that requires quarterly control assessments. The OSA program replaced the previous Authority to Operate (ATO) triennial assessment process. Because the OSA program is a novel process, we may encounter unforeseen issues with the Department, including differing interpretations on compliance controls and reporting requirements. Our inability to remediate any such issues to the satisfaction of the Department may cause a temporary or permanent injunction on servicing student loans under the contracts. Additionally, we are partially dependent on the existing Department contracts to broaden servicing operations with the Department, other federal and state agencies, and commercial clients. The size and importance of these contracts provide us the scale and infrastructure needed to profitably expand into new business opportunities. Failure to extend the Department contracts beyond the current expiration date, or obtain new Department contracts, could significantly hinder future opportunities, as well as result in potential restructuring charges that may be necessary to re-align our cost structure with our servicing operations.