Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. 10-Q

ITEM 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK. The primary components of our market risk are related to interest rate, principal prepayment and market value. While we do not seek to avoid risk completely, we believe the risk can be quantified from historical experience and we seek to actively manage that risk, to earn sufficient compensation to justify taking those risks and to maintain capital levels consistent with the risks we undertake. For additional discussion of market risk, see Part I. Item 1 - Risk Factors of our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022. Interest Rate Risk Interest rate risk is highly sensitive to many factors, including governmental, monetary and tax policies, domestic and international economic and political considerations, and other factors beyond our control. We are subject to interest rate risk in connection with our investments and our repurchase agreements. Our repurchase agreements are typically short-term in nature and are periodically refinanced at current market rates. We typically mitigate this interest rate risk by utilizing derivative contracts, primarily interest rate swap agre ements. Interest Rate Effect on Net Interest Income Our operating results depend in large part upon differences between the yields earned on our investments and our cost of borrowing and interest rate hedging activities. During periods of rising interest rates, the borrowing costs associated with our investments tend to increase while the income earned on our fixed interest rate investments may remain substantially unchanged. This increase in borrowing costs results in the narrowing of the net interest spread between the related assets and borrowings and may even result in losses. Further, defaults could increase and result in credit losses to us, which could adversely affect our liquidity and operating results. Such delinquencies or defaults could also have an adverse effect on the spread between interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities. Hedging techniques are partly based on assumed levels of prepayments of our RMBS. If prepayments are slower or faster than assumed, the life of the RMBS will be longer or shorter, which would reduce the effectiveness of any hedging strategies we may use and may cause losses on such transactions. Hedging strategies involving the use of derivative securities are highly complex and may produce volatile returns. Interest Rate Effects on Fair Value Another component of interest rate risk is the effect that changes in interest rates will have on the market value of the assets that we acquire. We face the risk that the market value of our assets will increase or decrease at different rates than those of our liabilities, including our hedging instruments. We primarily assess our interest rate risk by estimating the duration of our assets and the duration of our liabilities. Duration measures the market price volatility of financial instruments as interest rates change. We generally calculate duration using various financial models and empirical data. Different models and methodologies can produce different duration values for the same securities. The impact of changing interest rates on fair value can change significantly when interest rates change materially. Therefore, the volatility in the fair value of our assets could increase significantly in the event interest rates change materially. In addition, other factors impact the fair value of our interest rate-sensitive investments and hedging instruments, such as the shape of the yield curve, market expectations as to future interest rate changes and other market conditions. Accordingly, changes in actual interest rates may have a material adverse effect on us. 51 Table of Contents Spread Risk We refer to the difference between interest rates on our investments and interest rates on risk free instruments as spreads. We employ a variety of spread risk management techniques that seek to mitigate the influences of spread changes on our book value and our liquidity to help us achieve our investment objectives. The yield on our investments changes over time due to the level of risk free interest rates, the creditworthiness of the security, and the price of the perceived risk. The change in the market yield of our interest rate hedges also changes primarily with the level of risk free interest rates. We manage spread risk through careful asset selection, sector allocation, regulating our portfolio value-at-risk, and seeking to maintain adequate liquidity. Changes in spreads impact our book value and our liquidity and could cause us to sell assets and to change our investment strategy to maintain liquidity and preserve book value. Elevated inflation, monetary policy tightening by the FOMC and concerns surrounding the health of the regional banking system have impacted and may continue to impact credit spreads. Prepayment Risk As we receive prepayments of principal on our investments, premiums or discounts on these investments are amortized against interest income. In general, an increase in prepayment rates will accelerate the amortization of purchase premiums, thereby reducing the interest income earned on the investments. Conversely, discounts on such investments are accreted into interest income. In general, an increase in prepayment rates will accelerate the accretion of purchase discounts, thereby increasing the interest income earned on the investments. Increased inflation, elevated interest rate volatility and other factors have made it more difficult to predict prepayment levels for the securities in our portfolio. As a result, it is possible that realized prepayment behavior will be materially different from our expectations. Extension Risk We compute the projected weighted average life of our investments based upon assumptions regarding the rate at which the borrowers will prepay the underlying mortgages. In general, when a fixed-rate or hybrid adjustable-rate security is acquired with borrowings, we may, but are not required to, enter into an interest rate swap agreement or other hedging instrument that effectively fixes our borrowing costs for a period close to the anticipated average life of the fixed-rate portion of the related assets. This strategy is designed to protect us from rising interest rates, because the borrowing costs are fixed for the duration of the fixed-rate portion of the related target asset. However, if prepayment rates decrease in a rising interest rate environment, then the life of the fixed-rate portion of the related assets could extend beyond the term of the swap agreement or other hedging instrument. This could have a negative impact on our results from operations, as borrowing costs would no longer be fixed after the end of the hedging instrument, while the income earned on the hybrid adjustable-rate assets would remain fixed. This situation may also cause the market value of our hybrid adjustable-rate assets to decline, with little or no offsetting gain from the related hedging transactions. In extreme situations, we may be forced to sell assets to maintain adequate liquidity, which could cause us to incur losses. Market Risk Market Value Risk Our available-for-sale securities are reflected at their estimated fair value with unrealized gains and losses excluded from earnings and reported in other comprehensive income under ASC Topic 320. The estimated fair value of these securities fluctuates primarily due to changes in interest rates and other factors. Generally, in a rising interest rate environment, the estimated fair value of these securities would be expected to decrease; conversely, in a falling interest rate environment, the estimated fair value of these securities would be expected to increase. The COVID-19 pandemic, unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the ongoing normalization of such policy responses caused unprecedented volatility and illiquidity in fixed income markets. The amount of financing we receive under our repurchase agreements is directly related to our counterparties’ valuation of our assets that collateralize the outstanding repurchase agreement financing. When these or similar market conditions are present, margin call risk is elevated and our operating results and financial condition may be materially impacted. The sensitivity analysis table presented below shows the estimated impact of an instantaneous parallel shift in the yield curve, up and down 50 and 100 basis points, on the market value of our interest rate-sensitive investments and net interest income, including net interest paid or received under interest rate swaps, as of June 30, 2023 and December 31, 2022, assuming a static portfolio and constant financing and credit spreads. When evaluating the impact of changes in interest rates, prepayment assumptions and principal reinvestment rates are adjusted based on our Manager’s expectations. The analysis presented utilized assumptions, models and estimates of our Manager based on our Manager’s judgment and experience. 52 Table of Contents As of June 30, 2023 As of December 31, 2022 Change in Interest Rates Percentage Change in Projected Net Interest Income Percentage Change in Projected Portfolio Value Percentage Change in Projected Net Interest Income Percentage Change in Projected Portfolio Value +1.00% 0.05 % (1.30) % (2.97) % (1.15) % +0.50% 0.02 % (0.56) % (1.54) % (0.48) % -0.50% (0.15) % 0.31 % 1.56 % 0.22 % -1.00% (0.46) % 0.30 % 2.90 % 0.13 % Certain assumptions have been made in connection with the calculation of the information set forth in the foregoing interest rate sensitivity table and, as such, there can be no assurance that assumed events will occur or that other events will not occur that would affect the outcomes. The interest rate scenarios assume interest rates as of June 30, 2023 and December 31, 2022. Furthermore, while the analysis reflects the estimated impact of interest rate increases and decreases on a static portfolio, we actively manage the size and composition of our investment and swap portfolios, which can result in material changes to our interest rate risk profile. When applicable, our scenario analysis assumes a floor of 0% for U.S. Treasury yields and, to be consistent, we also apply a floor of 0% for all related funding costs. The information set forth in the interest rate sensitivity table above and all related disclosures constitutes forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Exchange Act. Actual results could differ significantly from those estimated in the foregoing interest rate sensitivity table. Real Estate Risk Residential and commercial property values are subject to volatility and may be adversely affected by a number of factors, including, but not limited to: national, regional and local economic conditions (which may be adversely affected by industry slowdowns and other factors); local real estate conditions (such as the supply of housing stock or other property sectors); changes or continued weakness in specific industry segments; construction quality, age and design; demographic factors; and retroactive changes to building or similar codes. In addition, decreases in property values reduce the value of the collateral and the potential proceeds available to a borrower to repay our loans, which could also cause us to suffer losses. Credit Risk We retain the risk of potential credit losses on all of our residential and commercial mortgage investments. We seek to manage this risk through our pre-acquisition due diligence process. In addition, we re-evaluate the credit risk inherent in our investments on a regular basis pursuant to fundamental considerations such as GDP, unemployment, interest rates, retail sales, store closings/openings, corporate earnings, housing inventory, affordability and regional home price trends. We also review key loan credit metrics including, but not limited to, payment status, current loan-to-value ratios, current borrower credit scores and debt yields. These characteristics assist in determining the likelihood and severity of loan loss as well as prepayment and extension expectations. We then perform structural analysis under multiple scenarios to establish likely cash flow profiles and credit enhancement levels relative to collateral performance projections. This analysis allows us to quantify our opinions of credit quality and fundamental value, which are key drivers of portfolio management decisions. Given deteriorating fundamentals and tightening lending conditions, borrowers may experience difficulties meeting their obligations and refinancing loans upon scheduled maturities. Loans may experience increasing delinquency levels and eventual defaults, which could impact the performance of our mortgage-backed securities. We also expect credit rating agencies to continue to reassess transactions negatively impacted by these adverse changes, which may result in our investments being downgraded. Risk Management To the extent consistent with maintaining our REIT qualification, we seek to manage risk exposure to protect our investment portfolio against the effects of major interest rate changes. We generally seek to manage this risk by: • monitoring and adjusting, if necessary, the reset index and interest rate related to our target assets and our financings; • attempting to structure our financing agreements to have a range of different maturities, terms, amortizations and interest rate adjustment periods; • exploring options to obtain financing arrangements that are not marked to market; • using hedging instruments, primarily interest rate swap agreements but also financial futures, options, interest rate cap agreements, floors and forward sales to adjust the interest rate sensitivity of our target assets and our borrowings; and 53 Table of Contents • actively managing, on an aggregate basis, the interest rate indices, interest rate adjustment periods, and gross reset margins of our target assets and the interest rate indices and adjustment periods of our financings.