IMPERIAL OIL LTD 10-K

Item 1A. Risk factors Imperial’s financial and operating results are subject to a variety of risks inherent in oil, gas and petrochemical businesses. Many of these risk factors are not within Imperial’s control and could adversely affect Imperial’s business, financial and operating results, or financial position. These risk factors include: Supply and demand The oil, gas, fuels and petrochemical businesses are fundamentally commodity businesses. This means the company’s operations and earnings may be significantly affected by changes in oil, natural gas and petrochemical prices, and by changes in margins on refined products and petrochemicals. Crude oil, natural gas, petrochemical and petroleum product prices and margins depend on local, regional, and global events or conditions that affect supply and demand for the relevant commodity. Commodity prices have been volatile, and the company expects that volatility to continue. Any material decline in crude oil prices could have a material adverse effect on Imperial’s Upstream operations, financial position, proved reserves and the amount spent to develop reserves. On the other hand, a material increase in crude oil prices could have a material adverse effect on Imperial’s Downstream margins, depending on the market conditions for refined products. The demand for energy and petrochemicals is generally linked closely with broad-based economic activities and levels of prosperity. The occurrence of recessions or other periods of low or negative economic growth will typically have a direct adverse impact on the company’s results. Other factors that may affect the demand for crude oil, gas, fuels and petrochemicals, and therefore could impact Imperial’s results include technological improvements in energy efficiency; seasonal weather patterns, which affect the demand for our products, including lower demand for gasoline, impacting Downstream results in the winter; increased competitiveness of, or government policy support for, alternative energy sources; new product quality regulations; technological changes or consumer preferences that alter fuel choices, such as technological advances in energy storage that make wind and solar more competitive for power generation; changes in consumer preferences for the company’s products, including consumer demand for alternative fueled or electric transportation or alternatives to plastic products; broad-based changes in personal income levels; and security or public health issues and responses such as epidemics and pandemics. Commodity prices and margins also vary depending on a number of factors affecting supply. For example, increased supply from the development of new oil and gas supply sources and technologies to enhance recovery from existing sources tend to reduce commodity prices to the extent such supply increases are not offset by commensurate growth in demand. Similarly, increases in industry refining or petrochemical manufacturing capacity relative to demand tend to reduce margins on affected products. Crude oil, gas and petrochemical supply levels can also be affected by factors that reduce available supplies, such as adherence by member countries or others to Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production quotas, government policies that restrict oil and gas production or increase associated costs, including the Government of Alberta curtailment regulations, the occurrence of wars, hostile actions, natural disasters, disruptions in competitors’ operations, or unexpected pipeline or rail constraints that may disrupt supplies. Technological change can also alter the relative costs for competitors to find, produce, and refine oil and gas and to manufacture petrochemicals. The market price for western Canadian heavy crude oil is typically lower than light and medium grades of oil, principally due to the higher transportation and refining costs. Western Canadian crude oil may also be subject to limits on transportation capacity to markets. Future crude price differentials between western Canadian crude oil relative to prices in the U.S. Gulf Coast are uncertain and changes in the heavy or light crude oil differentials could have a material adverse effect on the company’s business. Increased differentials in 2018 also led the Government of Alberta to enact temporary mandatory production curtailment regulations in 2019. These regulations enable the government to impose production limits on large producers in Alberta such as Imperial. Although mandatory production curtailment decreased throughout 2019 and 2020, and was eliminated in December 2020, the regulatory authority to impose curtailments remains in place and there is the potential for curtailment to be re-imposed and increased. The duration of these regulations is uncertain, and could have an adverse effect on the company’s business. A significant portion of the company’s production is bitumen, which is blended with diluent for transportation and marketability of heavy crude oil. Increases to diluent prices, relative to heavy crude oil prices, could also have an adverse effect on the company’s business. 23 Table of Contents Government and political factors Imperial’s results can be adversely impacted by political, legal or regulatory developments affecting operations and markets. Changes in government policy or regulations, changes in law or interpretation of settled law, third-party opposition to company or infrastructure projects, and duration of regulatory reviews could impact Imperial’s existing operations and planned projects. This includes actions by regulators or other political actors to delay or deny necessary licenses and permits or restrict the operation of third-party infrastructure that the company relies on, such as pipelines to transport the company’s upstream production to market or that supply feedstock to the company’s refineries. Additionally, changes in environmental regulations, assessment processes or other laws and increasing and expanding stakeholder consultation (including Indigenous stakeholders), may increase the cost of compliance or reduce or delay available business opportunities and adversely impact the company’s results. Other government and political factors that could adversely affect the company’s financial results include increases in taxes or government royalty rates (including retroactive claims) and changes in trade policies and agreements. Further, the adoption of regulations mandating efficiency standards, and the use of alternative fuels or uncompetitive fuel components could affect the company’s operations. Many governments are providing tax advantages and other subsidies to support alternative energy sources or are mandating the use of specific fuels or technologies. Governments and others are also promoting research into new technologies to reduce the cost and increase the scalability of alternative energy sources, and the success of these initiatives may decrease demand for the company’s products. Governments may establish regulations with respect to the control of the company’s production, such as when increased price differentials in 2018 led the Government of Alberta to impose temporary mandatory production curtailment regulations effective 2019, as discussed in the Supply and demand section above. Government intervention in free markets may introduce unintended consequences such as market volatility and uncertainty, misallocation of resources, and erosion of investor confidence. Environmental risks All phases of the Upstream, Downstream and Chemical businesses are subject to environmental regulation pursuant to a variety of Canadian federal, provincial, territorial and municipal laws and regulations, as well as international conventions (collectively, “environmental legislation”). Environmental legislation imposes, among other things, restrictions, liabilities and obligations in connection with the generation, handling, storage, transportation, treatment and disposal of hazardous substances and waste and in connection with spills, releases and emissions of various substances into the environment. As well, environmental regulations are imposed on the qualities and compositions of the products sold and imported. Changes to these requirements could adversely affect the company’s results by impacting commodity prices, increasing costs and reducing revenues. Environmental legislation also requires that wells, facility sites and other properties associated with the company’s operations be operated, maintained, monitored, abandoned and reclaimed to the satisfaction of applicable regulatory authorities. This includes the requirement for specific approvals for many areas of interaction with the environment, such as land use, air quality, water use, biodiversity protection and waste, including mine tailings management. The failure to operate as anticipated and adhere to conditions, the delay or denial of approvals and changes to conditions or regulations could impact the company’s ability to operate its projects and facilities and adversely affect the company’s results. 24 Table of Contents The implementation of, and compliance with, policies and regulations related to air, water and land, such as Alberta’s Lower Athabasca Regional Plan and Wetland Policy applicable to the company’s oil sands assets, could restrict development in current and future areas of operation. The company also depends on water obtained under licences for withdrawal, storage, reuse and discharge in both its Upstream and Downstream businesses, including future projects and expansions. Water use may be limited by regulatory requirements, seasonal fluctuations, competing demands, environmental sensitivities, increasingly stringent water management standards, and changes to conditions or availability of licences, which may restrict and adversely affect the company’s operations. Additionally, a number of air quality regulations and frameworks are being developed at the federal and provincial levels, and when implemented could impact existing and planned projects through increased capital and operating expenses including retrofits to existing equipment, and could adversely impact the company’s operations and financial results. Federal and provincial legislation aimed at protecting sensitive, threatened or endangered wildlife, such as woodland caribou and species of migratory birds, may also increase restoration and offset costs and impact the company’s projects. If it is determined that such wildlife and their habitat are not sufficiently protected, governments or other parties may take actions to limit the pace or ability to develop in areas of Imperial’s current and future projects. The company’s mining operations are subject to tailings management regulations that establish approval, monitoring, reporting and performance criteria for tailings ponds and management plans. Further, the absence or evolving nature of policies and regulations for the timing and closure of tailings ponds, including the approved technologies and methods for closure (such as the use of end pit lakes and water capped tailings), and dam safety directives, regulations, guides and abandonment requirements could have a material impact on conditions for approvals and ultimate mine closure costs. Additionally, successful management and closure requires the release of water to the environment, and although an Alberta water release policy and federal oil sands effluent regulations are being developed, the timing and impact of these regulations is uncertain and the absence of effective regulation could negatively impact the company’s operations and financial results. In addition, certain types of operations, including exploration and development projects and significant changes to certain existing projects, may require the submission and approval of environmental impact assessments. In 2019, the Government of Canada implemented a new environmental assessment framework under the Impact Assessment Act , which expands assessment considerations beyond the environment to include social, health, economic, and gender-based impacts and the impact on Canada’s climate change commitments. It also includes a reliance on strategic and regional assessments and adjusted regulatory review timelines. The impact of this legislation is not fully apparent, but it may impact the cost, manner, duration and ability to advance large energy projects. Compliance with environmental legislation can require significant expenditures and failure to comply with environmental legislation may result in the cessation of operations, imposition of fines and penalties and liability for clean-up costs and damages. The costs of complying with environmental legislation in the future could have a material adverse effect on the company’s financial condition or results of operations. The company anticipates that changes in environmental legislation may require, among other things, reductions in emissions from its operations to the air and water and may result in increased capital expenditures. Changes in environmental legislation (including, but not limited to, application of regulations related to air, water, land, biodiversity and waste, including mine tailings) may increase the cost of compliance or reduce or delay available business opportunities. Future changes in environmental legislation could occur and result in stricter standards and enforcement, larger fines and liability, and increased capital expenditures and operating costs, which could have a material adverse effect on the company’s financial condition or results of operations. There are operational risks inherent in oil and gas exploration and production activities, as well as the potential to incur substantial financial liabilities, if the company does not manage those risks effectively. The ability to insure such risks is limited by the capacity of the applicable insurance markets, which may not be sufficient to cover the likely cost of a major adverse operating event. Accordingly, the company’s primary focus is on prevention, including through its rigorous operations integrity management system. The company’s future results will depend on the continued effectiveness of these efforts. 25 Table of Contents Climate change and greenhouse gas restrictions Driven by concern over the risks of climate change, a number of provinces and the Government of Canada have adopted, are considering the adoption of, or have revised, regulatory frameworks to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or production and use of oil and gas. These include adoption of carbon emissions pricing, cap and trade regimes, carbon taxes, emissions limits, increased efficiency standards, low carbon fuel standards and incentives or mandates for renewable energy. The Government of Canada has adopted the Paris Agreement on climate change, and set a goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions economy-wide by 30 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. To implement these goals, the Government of Canada adopted the Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act (GGPPA), which sets a federal backstop carbon price Canada-wide through a carbon levy applied to fossil fuels ($20 per tonne starting in 2019 and increasing by $10 per tonne annually to $50 per tonne in 2022), and an output-based pricing system for large industrial emitters. Under the GGPPA, provinces are required to either adopt the GGPPA, or obtain equivalency by adopting a price-based system or cap and trade system. In December 2020, the Government of Canada proposed to increase the carbon price by $15 per year starting in 2023, rising to $170 per tonne in 2030. Further, in 2020 the Government of Canada proposed legislation to formalize Canada’s target to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and establish interim emissions reductions targets at five year intervals. The Government of Alberta has obtained federal equivalency for its Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction Regulation (TIER) that came into effect in 2020 and applies to facilities with CO2 emissions in excess of 100,000 tonnes per year. TIER is designed to reduce emissions by putting a price on 10 percent of a facility’s emissions in 2020, increasing by 1 percent per year, with pricing for 2020 set at $30 per tonne. Further, the Alberta Oil Sands Emissions Limit Act sets a limit of 100 megatonnes of CO2 per year of emissions in the oil sands sector, but oil sands emissions remain below the limit and it is not yet possible to predict the impact of this act on the company’s future oil sands operations in Alberta. With respect to other provinces, with Ontario cancelling the cap and trade program in 2018, the company’s operations in Ontario are subject to the federal carbon levy and output based pricing system. British Columbia has carbon pricing in place for all emissions, with pricing currently at $40 per tonne and rising by $5 per tonne in April, 2021. Increases in carbon pricing could adversely impact the company’s operations and financial results unless the company can adapt its operations. There are also various low carbon fuel standards being developed or applicable to the company’s products. The Government of Canada is progressing draft regulations for the Clean Fuel Standard, which will require the reduction in carbon intensity of liquid fuels supplied in Canada starting in 2022. The standard is expected to build upon the existing federal renewable fuels regulations that require fuel producers and importers to have a specified amount of renewable fuel in gasoline and diesel. Similarly, British Columbia introduced a Low Carbon Fuel Standard in 2013, which increased to a 10 percent carbon intensity reduction requirement by 2020. The British Columbia government has announced a draft policy to reduce the carbon intensity of fuels by a further 20 percent by 2030. Compliance can be achieved by either blending renewable fuels with low carbon intensity or by purchasing credits. In 2019, the Government of Canada enacted the Impact Assessment Act , which links environmental assessment approvals to climate change-related goals, and has also discussed a goal of establishing legally-binding policies for being carbon-neutral by 2050. Changes and policies related to this act could adversely impact the company’s ability to progress new oil sands projects. International accords and underlying regional and national regulations covering climate change and greenhouse gas emissions continue to evolve with uncertain timing and outcome, making it difficult to predict their business impact. Such laws and policies could make Imperial’s products more expensive and less competitive, reduce or delay available business opportunities, reduce demand for hydrocarbons, and shift hydrocarbon demand toward lower greenhouse gas emission energy sources. Current and pending greenhouse gas regulations or policies may also increase compliance and abatement costs including taxes and levies, increase abandonment and reclamation obligations, lengthen project evaluation and implementation times, impact reserves evaluations and affect operations. Increased costs may not be recoverable in the market place, could negatively affect our returns and could reduce the global competitiveness of the company’s crude oil, natural gas and refined products. Governments may also impose restrictions on production of oil and gas to the extent they view such measures as a viable approach for pursuing national and global energy and climate policies. Concern over the risks of climate change may lead governments to make laws applicable to the energy industry progressively more stringent over time. 26 Table of Contents Political and other actors and their agents are also increasingly seeking to advance climate change objectives indirectly, such as by seeking to reduce the availability of or increase the cost for financing and investment in the oil and gas sector and taking actions intended to promote changes in business strategy for oil and gas companies. Currency Prices for commodities produced by the company are commonly benchmarked in U.S. dollars. The majority of Imperial’s sales and purchases are related to these industry U.S. dollar benchmarks. As the company records and reports its financial results in Canadian dollars, to the extent that the value of the Canadian dollar strengthens, the company’s reported earnings will be negatively affected. The company does not currently make use of derivative instruments to offset exposures associated with foreign currency. Other business risks Imperial is reliant on a number of key chemicals, catalysts and third-party service providers, including input and output commodity transportation (pipelines, rail, trucking, marine) and utilities providing services, including electricity and water, to various company operations. The lack of availability, capacity or proximity with respect to pipeline facilities and railcars could negatively impact Imperial’s ability to produce at capacity levels. Transportation disruptions, including those caused by events unrelated to the company’s operations, could adversely affect the company’s price realizations, refining operations and sales volumes. This includes outages of key third-party infrastructure, such as pipelines servicing the company’s oil sands assets or pipelines supplying feedstock to its refineries, which could impact the company’s ability to operate its assets or limit the ability to deliver production and products to market. A third-party utilities outage could have an adverse impact on the company’s operations and ability to produce. The company also enters into contractual relationships with suppliers, partners and other counterparties to procure and sell goods and services, and the company’s operations, market position and financial condition may be adversely impacted if these counterparties do not fulfil their obligations. Imperial may also be adversely affected by the outcome of litigation resulting from its operations or by government enforcement proceedings alleging non-compliance with applicable laws or regulations. Litigation is subject to uncertainty and success is not guaranteed, and the company may incur significant expenses and devote significant resources in defending litigation. Management effectiveness In addition to external economic and political factors, Imperial’s future business results also depend on the company’s ability to manage successfully those factors that are at least in part within its control. The extent to which Imperial manages these factors will impact its performance relative to competition. For projects in which the company is not the operator, Imperial depends on the management effectiveness of one or more co-venturers whom the company does not control. Project management The nature of the company’s Upstream, Downstream and Chemical businesses depend on complex, long-term, and capital intensive projects that require a high degree of project management expertise to maximize efficiency. This includes development, engineering, construction, commissioning and ongoing operational activities and expertise. The company’s results are affected by its ability to develop and operate projects and facilities as planned and by events or conditions that affect the advancement, operation, cost or results of such projects or facilities. These risks include the company’s ability to obtain the necessary environmental and other regulatory approvals; changes in regulations; the ability to model and optimize reservoir performance; changes in resources and operating costs including the availability and cost of materials, equipment and qualified personnel; the impact of general economic, business and market conditions; and the company’s ability to respond effectively to unforeseen technical difficulties that could delay project start-up or cause unscheduled downtime. 27 Table of Contents Operational efficiency An important component of Imperial’s competitive performance, especially given the commodity based nature of Imperial’s business, is the ability to operate efficiently, including the company’s ability to manage expenses and improve production yields on an ongoing basis. This requires continuous management focus, including technological improvements, cost control, productivity enhancements and regular reappraisal of the company’s asset portfolio. The company’s operations and results also depend on key personnel and subject matter expertise, the recruitment, development and retention of high caliber employees, and the availability of skilled labour. Research and development and technical change Imperial relies upon the research and development organizations of the company and ExxonMobil, with whom the company conducts shared research. Innovation and technology are important to maintain the company’s competitive position, especially in light of the technological nature of Imperial’s business and the need for continuous efficiency improvement. The company’s research and development organizations must be able to adapt to a changing market and policy environment, including developing technologies to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions intensity. To remain competitive, the company must also continuously adapt and capture the benefits of new technologies including growing the company’s capabilities to utilize digital data technologies to gain new business insights. There are risks associated with projects that rely on new technology, including that the results of implementing the new technology may differ from simulated, piloted or expected results. The failure to develop and adopt new technology may have an adverse impact on the company’s operations, ability to meet regulatory requirements and operational commitments and targets (including environmental sustainability and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions), and financial results. Safety, business controls and environmental risk management The scope and nature of the company’s operations present a variety of significant hazards and risks, including operational hazards and risks such as explosions, fires, pipeline ruptures and crude oil spills. Imperial’s operations are also subject to the additional hazards of pollution, releases of toxic gas and environmental hazards and risks, such as severe weather, and geological events. The company’s results depend on management’s ability to minimize these inherent risks, to effectively control business activities and to minimize the potential for human error. Imperial applies rigorous management systems, including a combined program of effective operations integrity management, ongoing upgrades, key equipment replacements, and comprehensive inspection and surveillance. The company also maintains a disciplined framework of internal controls and applies a controls management system for monitoring compliance with this framework. The company’s upstream and downstream operations may experience loss of production, slowdowns or shutdowns and increased costs due to the failure of interdependent systems, and substantial liabilities and other adverse impacts could result if the company’s management systems and controls do not function as intended. Cybersecurity Imperial is regularly subject to attempted cybersecurity disruptions from a variety of threat actors, including state-sponsored actors. Imperial’s defensive preparedness includes multi-layered technological capabilities for prevention and detection of cybersecurity disruptions; non-technological measures such as threat information sharing with governmental and industry groups; internal training and awareness campaigns including routine testing of employee awareness via mock threats; and an emphasis on resiliency including business response and recovery. If the measures the company is taking to protect against cybersecurity disruptions prove to be insufficient or if the company’s proprietary data is otherwise not protected, the company as well as its customers, employees or third parties could be adversely affected. Cybersecurity disruptions could cause physical harm to people or the environment; damage or destroy assets; compromise business systems; result in proprietary information being altered, lost or stolen; result in employee, customer or third-party information being compromised; or otherwise disrupt the company’s business operations. Imperial could incur significant costs to remedy the effects of a major cybersecurity disruption, in addition to costs in connection with resulting regulatory actions, litigation or reputational harm. 28 Table of Contents Preparedness The company’s operations may be disrupted by severe weather events, natural disasters, human error, and similar events. Imperial’s ability to mitigate the adverse impacts of these events depends in part upon the effectiveness of its rigorous disaster preparedness and response planning, as well as business continuity planning. COVID-19 As a result of COVID-19, governments in many countries, including Canada, have mandated quarantines, closures, stay-at-home orders and travel restrictions that have had a significant impact on demand for the company’s products. While these effects are expected to be temporary, the resurgence of cases of COVID-19 has led to a highly uncertain business environment. Although there has been some movement toward pre-pandemic activity levels, the duration of the business disruptions internationally and related financial impact cannot be reasonably estimated at this time and continued or new restrictions could continue to impact the demand for petroleum products. Imperial’s future business results, including cash flows and financing needs, will be affected by the extent and duration of these conditions and the effectiveness of responsive actions that the company and others take, including our actions to reduce capital and operating expenses and government actions to address the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of COVID-19 could also have an effect on the financial markets and result in an increase to the cost of capital due to risk. The company’s results will also be affected by any resulting negative impacts on national and global economies and markets from a prolonged decrease of economic activity. The company has had positive COVID-19 cases, but these cases have not had a material impact on its operations or business. The company has initiated numerous emergency response and business continuity plans, and a substantial portion of the company’s workforce has implemented remote working arrangements. However, if the company’s mitigation and response efforts prove insufficient, then large outbreaks of epidemics, pandemics or other health crises such as COVID-19 at operating sites, particularly in remote locations and where work camps are utilized, could materially impact the company’s personnel and its operations, reducing productivity and increasing costs. The company could also be impacted by disruption to supply chains, methods of distribution and key third-party service providers, which could impact the ability to produce or sell its products, as well as increase the costs associated with its operations and decrease revenues and margins. The COVID-19 pandemic continues to evolve, with changing case numbers and the potential for additional public health restrictions. Although vaccines are being developed and approved for use, their availability and effectiveness is uncertain, especially in light of the emergence of new mutations of the virus. The impact of the pandemic remains difficult to predict. Reputation Imperial’s reputation is an important corporate asset. An operating incident, significant cybersecurity disruption, change in consumer views concerning the company’s products, or other adverse events, such as those described in Item 1A, may have a negative impact on Imperial’s reputation, which in turn could make it more difficult for the company to compete successfully for new opportunities or obtain necessary regulatory approvals, or could reduce consumer demand for the company’s branded products. Imperial’s reputation may also be harmed by events which negatively affect the image of the industry as a whole, including public and investor perception of Alberta oil sands in relation to greenhouse gas emissions and environmental impact. 29 Table of Contents Reserves The company’s future production and cash flows from bitumen, synthetic oil, liquids and natural gas reserves are highly dependent upon the company’s success in exploiting its current reserves. To maintain production and cash flows, the company must continue to replace produced reserves as they are depleted, which can be accomplished through exploration discovery of new resources, appraisal and investments in developing discovered resources, or acquisition of reserves. To the extent cash flows from operations are insufficient to fund capital expenditures and external sources of capital become limited or unavailable, the company’s ability to make the necessary capital investments to maintain and grow oil and natural gas reserves will be adversely impacted. In addition, the company may be unable to find and develop or acquire additional reserves to replace oil and natural gas production at acceptable costs. Estimates of economically recoverable oil and natural gas reserves and future net cash flows involve many uncertainties, including factors beyond the company’s control. Key factors with uncertainty include: geological and engineering estimates, including that additional information obtained through seismic and drilling programs, reservoir analysis and production and operational history may result in revisions to reserves; the assumed effects of regulation or changes to regulation by government agencies, including royalty frameworks and environmental regulations (such as the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions, which could impose significant compliance costs on the company, require new technology, or impact the economic viability of certain projects); future commodity prices, where low commodity prices may affect reserves development; abandonment and reclamation costs, including reclamation and tailings requirements for mining operations; and operating costs. Actual production, revenues, taxes and royalties, development costs, abandonment and reclamation costs, and operating expenditures with respect to reserves will likely vary from such estimates, and such variances could be material. Item 1B. Unresolved staff comments None. Item 2. Properties Reference is made to Item 1 above. Item 3. Legal proceedings Imperial has elected to use a $1 million threshold for disclosing environmental proceedings. Item 4. Mine safety disclosures Not applicable. 30 Table of Contents PART II