Item 1A. Risk Factors
Item 1A . Risk Factors.
Investors should carefully consider the discussion of risks and the other information in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021, in Part I, Item 1A, “Risk Factors,” and the discussion of risks and other information in Part I, Item 2, “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations,” under “Cautionary Information Regarding Forward-Looking Statements,” of this report. Investors should also carefully consider the discussion of risks with the partnership under the heading “Risk Factors” and other information in their annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021. Although we have attempted to discuss key factors, our investors need to be aware that other risks may prove to be important in the future. New risks may emerge at any time and we cannot predict such risks or estimate the extent to which they may affect our financial performance. The following risk factors supplement and/or update risk factors previously disclosed and should be considered in conjunction with the other information included in, or incorporated by reference in, this quarterly report on Form 10-Q.
Our margins are dependent on managing the spread between the price of corn, natural gas, ethanol, including industrial-grade alcohol, distillers grains, Ultra-High Protein and corn oil .
Our operating results are highly sensitive to the spread between the corn and natural gas we purchase, and the ethanol, including industrial-grade alcohol, distillers grains, Ultra-High Protein and corn oil we sell. Price and supply are subject to various market forces, such as weather, domestic and global demand, global political or economic issues, including but not limited to the war in Ukraine including sanctions associated therewith, shortages, export prices, crude oil prices, currency valuations and government policies in the United States and around the world, over which we have no control. Price volatility of these commodities may cause our operating results to fluctuate substantially. Increases in corn or natural gas prices or decreases in ethanol, including industrial-grade alcohol, distillers grains, Ultra-High Protein and corn oil prices may make it unprofitable to operate. No assurance can be given that we will purchase corn and natural gas or sell ethanol, including industrial-grade alcohol, distillers grains, Ultra-High Protein and corn oil at or near prices which would provide us with positive margins. Consequently, our results of operations and financial position may be adversely affected by increases in corn or natural gas prices or decreases in ethanol, including industrial-grade alcohol, distillers grains, Ultra-High Protein and corn oil prices.
We continuously monitor the margins at our ethanol plants using a variety of risk management tools and hedging strategies when appropriate. In recent years, the spread between ethanol and corn prices has fluctuated widely, narrowed significantly and been negative at times. Fluctuations are likely to continue. A sustained narrow spread or further reduction in the spread between ethanol and corn prices as a result of increased corn prices or decreased ethanol prices, would adversely affect our results of operations and financial position. Should our combined revenue from ethanol, including industrial-grade alcohol, distillers grains, Ultra-High Protein and corn oil fall below our cost of production, we could decide to slow or suspend production at some or all of our ethanol plants, which also could adversely affect our results of operations and financial position.
The products we buy and sell are subject to price volatility and uncertainty.
Our operating results are highly sensitive to commodity prices.
Corn. We are generally unable to pass increased corn costs to our customers since ethanol competes with other fuels. We have seen considerable price volatility in corn prices not experienced in recent years. At certain corn prices, ethanol may be uneconomical to produce. Ethanol plants, livestock industries and other corn-consuming enterprises put significant price pressure on local corn markets. In addition, local corn supplies and prices could be adversely affected by, but not limited to, prices for alternative crops, increasing input costs, changes in government policies, shifts in global markets, supply or demand, global political or economic issues, including but not limited to the war in Ukraine including sanctions associated therewith, or global damaging growing conditions, such as plant disease or adverse weather, including drought, as well as global conflicts.
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Ethanol. Our revenues are dependent on market prices for ethanol which can be volatile as a result of a number of factors, including but not limited to: the price and availability of competing fuels; the overall supply and demand for ethanol and corn; the price of gasoline, crude oil and corn; global political or economic issues, including but not limited to the war in Ukraine including sanctions associated therewith, and government policies.
Ethanol is marketed as a fuel additive that reduces vehicle emissions, an economical source of octanes and, to a lesser extent, a gasoline substitute. Consequently, gasoline supply and demand affect the price of ethanol. Should gasoline prices or demand decrease significantly, our results of operations could be materially impacted.
Ethanol imports also affect domestic supply and demand. Imported ethanol is not subject to an import tariff and, under the RFS, sugarcane ethanol from Brazil is one of the most economical means for obligated parties to meet the advanced biofuel standard.
Industrial-grade alcohol is produced by further distillation processing of 200-proof alcohol. Further distillation removes impurities which allows it to be used as an ingredient for sanitation products. Should industrial-grade alcohol prices or demand decrease significantly, or competition and supply increase, our results of operations could be negatively impacted.
Government mandates affecting ethanol could change and impact the ethanol market.
Under the provisions of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, as amended, Congress expanded the RFS. The RFS mandates the minimum volume of renewable fuels that must be blended into the transportation fuel supply each year which affects the domestic market for ethanol. Each year the EPA is supposed to undertake rulemaking to set the RVO for the following year, though at times months or years pass without a finalized RVO. Further, the EPA has the authority to waive the requirements, in whole or in part, if there is inadequate domestic renewable fuel supply or the requirement severely harms the economy or the environment. After 2022, volumes shall be determined by the EPA in coordination with the Secretaries of Energy and Agriculture, taking into account such factors as impact on environment, energy security, future rates of production, cost to consumers, infrastructure, and other factors such as impact on commodity prices, job creation, rural economic development, or impact on food prices.
According to the RFS, if mandatory renewable fuel volumes are reduced by at least 20% for two consecutive years, the EPA is required to modify, or reset, statutory volumes through 2022; the year through which the statutorily prescribed volumes run. While conventional ethanol maintained 15 billion gallons, 2019 was the second consecutive year that the total RVO was more than 20% below the statutory volumes levels. Thus, the EPA was expected to initiate a reset rulemaking, and modify statutory volumes through 2022, and do so based on the same factors they are to use in setting the RVOs post-2022. However, on December 19, 2019, the EPA announced it would not be moving forward with a reset rulemaking. It is unclear when or if they will propose a reset rulemaking. The EPA has stated an intention to propose a post-2022 ‘set’ rulemaking as required by statute.
Volumes can also be impacted as small refineries can petition the EPA for an SRE which, if approved, waives their portion of the annual RVO requirements. The EPA, through consultation with the DOE and the USDA, can grant them a full or partial waiver, or deny it outright within 90 days of submittal. A small refinery is defined as one that processes fewer than 75,000 barrels of petroleum per day.
Our operations could be adversely impacted by legislation, administration actions, EPA actions, or lawsuits that may reduce the RFS mandated volumes of conventional ethanol and other biofuels through the annual RVO, the 2022 set rulemaking, the point of obligation for blending, or SREs. A recent Supreme Court ruling held that the small refineries can continue to apply for an extension of their waivers from the RFS, even if they have not been awarded a continuous string of exemptions, though the EPA has proposed denying all SRE applications. A recent D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals ruling held that the EPA overstepped its authority in extending the one pound Reid Vapor Pressure waiver for 10% ethanol blends to 15% ethanol blends in the summer, effectively limiting summertime sales of ethanol blends above 10% to FFVs from June 1 to September 15 each year. Notwithstanding, on April 12, 2022, the President announced that he has directed the EPA to issue an emergency waiver to allow for the continued sale of E15 during the June 1 to September 15 period.
Similarly, should federal mandates regarding oxygenated gasoline be repealed, the market for domestic ethanol could be adversely impacted. Economic incentives to blend based on the relative value of gasoline versus ethanol, taking into consideration the octane value of ethanol, environmental requirements and the RFS mandate, may affect future demand. A significant increase in supply beyond the RFS mandate could have an adverse impact on ethanol prices. Moreover, changes to RFS could negatively impact the price of ethanol or cause imported sugarcane ethanol to become more economical than domestic ethanol. Likewise, national, state and regional LCFS like that of California, Oregon, Brazil or Canada could be
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favorable or harmful to conventional ethanol, depending on how the regulations are crafted, enforced and modified.
Future demand may be influenced by economic incentives to blend based on the relative value of gasoline versus ethanol, taking into consideration the octane value of ethanol, environmental requirements and the value of RFS credits or RINs. A significant increase in supply beyond the RFS mandate could have an adverse impact on ethanol prices. Moreover, any changes to RFS, whether by legislation, EPA action or lawsuit, originating from issues associated with the market price of RINs could negatively impact the demand for ethanol, discretionary blending of ethanol and/or the price of ethanol. Recent actions by the EPA to grant SREs without accounting for the lost gallons, for example, resulted in lower RIN prices. Similarly, proposals from the current EPA to reduce annual RVO levels could also lead to lower RIN prices.
To the extent federal or state laws or regulations are modified and/or enacted, it may result in the demand for ethanol being reduced, which could negatively and materially affect our financial performance.
The ability or willingness of OPEC and other oil exporting nations to set and maintain production levels and/or the impact of sanctions on Russia related to the war in Ukraine may have a significant impact on oil and natural gas commodity prices.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (collectively, OPEC+), is an intergovernmental organization that seeks to manage the price and supply of oil on the global energy market. Actions taken by OPEC+ members, including those taken alongside other oil exporting nations, have a significant impact on global oil supply and pricing. For example, OPEC+ and certain other oil exporting nations have previously agreed to take measures, including production cuts, to support crude oil prices. In March 2020, members of OPEC+ considered extending and potentially increasing these oil production cuts, however these negotiations were unsuccessful. As a result, Saudi Arabia announced an immediate reduction in export prices and Russia announced that all previously agreed oil production cuts expired on April 1, 2020. These actions led to an immediate and steep decrease in oil prices. Conversely, sanctions imposed on Russia in the last few months have increased prices. There can be no assurance that OPEC+ members and other oil exporting nations will agree to future production cuts or other actions to support and stabilize oil prices, nor can there be any assurance that sanctions or other global conflicts will not further impact oil prices. Uncertainty regarding future sanctions or actions to be taken by OPEC+ members or other oil exporting countries could lead to increased volatility in the price of oil, which could adversely affect our business, future financial condition and results of operations.
Text extracted from the filing as submitted to EDGAR. Formatting, tables and exhibits are simplified for reading; the original document is authoritative for anything you rely on.