Item 1A. Risk Factors
Item 1A . Risk Factors.
Investors should carefully consider the discussion of risks and the other information in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020, in Part I, Item 1A, “Risk Factors,” and the discussion of risks and other information in Part I, Item 2, “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations,” under “Cautionary Information Regarding Forward-Looking Statements,” of this report. Investors should also carefully consider the discussion of risks with the partnership under the heading “Risk Factors” and other information in their annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020. Although we have attempted to discuss key factors, our investors need to be aware that other risks may prove to be important in the future. New risks may emerge at any time and we cannot predict such risks or estimate the extent to which they may affect our financial performance. The following risk factors supplement and/or update risk factors previously disclosed and should be considered in conjunction with the other information included in, or incorporated by reference in, this quarterly report on Form 10-Q.
Our margins are dependent on managing the spread between the price of corn, natural gas, ethanol, including industrial-grade alcohol, distillers grains, Ultra-High Protein and corn oil .
Our operating results are highly sensitive to the spread between the corn and natural gas we purchase, and the ethanol, including industrial-grade alcohol, distillers grains, Ultra-High Protein and corn oil we sell. Price and supply are subject to various market forces, such as weather, domestic and global demand, shortages, export prices, crude oil prices, currency valuations and government policies in the United States and around the world, over which we have no control. Price volatility of these commodities may cause our operating results to fluctuate substantially. Increases in corn or natural gas prices or decreases in ethanol, including industrial-grade alcohol, distillers grains, Ultra-High Protein and corn oil prices may make it unprofitable to operate. No assurance can be given that we will purchase corn and natural gas or sell ethanol, including industrial-grade alcohol, distillers grains, Ultra-High Protein and corn oil at or near prices which would provide us with positive margins. Consequently, our results of operations and financial position may be adversely affected by increases in corn or natural gas prices or decreases in ethanol, including industrial-grade alcohol, distillers grains, Ultra-High Protein and corn oil prices.
We continuously monitor the margins at our ethanol plants using a variety of risk management tools and hedging strategies when appropriate. In recent years, the spread between ethanol and corn prices has fluctuated widely, narrowed significantly and been negative at times. Fluctuations are likely to continue. A sustained narrow spread or further reduction in the spread between ethanol and corn prices as a result of increased corn prices or decreased ethanol prices, would adversely affect our results of operations and financial position. Should our combined revenue from ethanol, including industrial-grade alcohol, distillers grains, Ultra-High Protein and corn oil fall below our cost of production, we could decide to slow or suspend production at some or all of our ethanol plants, which also could adversely affect our results of operations and financial position.
The commodities we buy and sell are subject to price volatility and uncertainty.
Our operating results are highly sensitive to commodity prices.
Corn. We are generally unable to pass increased corn costs to our customers since ethanol competes with other fuels. We have seen considerable price volatility in corn prices not experienced in recent years. At certain corn prices, ethanol may be uneconomical to produce. Ethanol plants, livestock industries and other corn-consuming enterprises put significant price pressure on local corn markets. In addition, local corn supplies and prices could be adversely affected by prices for alternative crops, increasing input costs, changes in government policies, shifts in global markets, supply or demand, or damaging growing conditions, such as plant disease or adverse weather, including drought.
Ethanol. Our revenues are dependent on market prices for ethanol which can be volatile as a result of a number of factors, including: the price and availability of competing fuels; the overall supply and demand for ethanol and corn; the price of gasoline, crude oil and corn; and government policies.
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Ethanol is marketed as a fuel additive that reduces vehicle emissions, an economical source of octanes and, to a lesser extent, a gasoline substitute. Consequently, gasoline supply and demand affect the price of ethanol. Should gasoline prices or demand decrease significantly, our results of operations could be materially impacted.
Ethanol imports also affect domestic supply and demand. Imported ethanol is not subject to an import tariff and, under the RFS II, sugarcane ethanol from Brazil is one of the most economical means for obligated parties to meet the advanced biofuel standard.
Industrial-grade alcohol is produced by further distillation processing of the 200-proof alcohol. Further distillation removes impurities which allows it to be used as an ingredient for sanitation products. Should industrial-grade alcohol prices or demand decrease significantly, our results of operations could be negatively impacted.
Distillers Grains. Increased U.S. dry mill ethanol production has resulted in increased distillers grains production. Should this trend continue, distillers grains prices could fall unless demand increases or other market sources are found. The price of distillers grains has historically been correlated with the price of corn. Occasionally, the price of distillers grains will lag behind fluctuations in corn or other feedstock prices, lowering our cost recovery percentage. Additionally, exports of distiller grains could be impacted by the enactment of foreign policy.
Distillers grains compete with other protein-based animal feed products. Downward pressure on other commodity prices, such as corn and soybeans, will generally cause the price of competing animal feed products to decline, resulting in downward pressure on the price of distillers grains.
Natural Gas. The price and availability of natural gas are subject to volatile market conditions. These market conditions are often affected by factors beyond our control, such as weather, drilling economics, overall economic conditions and government regulations. Significant disruptions in natural gas supply could impair our ability to produce ethanol. Furthermore, increases in natural gas prices or changes in our cost relative to our competitors cannot be passed on to our customers, which may adversely affect our results of operations and financial position.
Corn Oil. Industrial corn oil is generally marketed as a renewable diesel and biodiesel feedstock; therefore, the price of corn oil is affected by demand for renewable diesel and biodiesel. Expanded profitability in the renewable diesel and biodiesel industry due to the extended blending tax credit and low carbon fuels standards could impact corn oil demand. In general, corn oil prices follow the prices of heating oil and soybean oil. Decreases in the price of corn oil could have an unfavorable impact on our business.
Business disruptions due to unforeseen operational failures or factors outside of our control could impact our ability to fulfill contractual obligations.
Natural disasters, pandemics, transportation issues, significant track damage resulting from a train derailment or strikes by our transportation providers could delay shipments of raw materials to our plants or deliveries of ethanol, including industrial-grade alcohol, distillers grains, Ultra-High Protein and corn oil to our customers. If we are unable to meet customer demand or contract delivery requirements due to stalled operations caused by business disruptions, we could potentially lose customers.
Shifts in global markets, supply or demand changes, as well as adverse weather conditions, such as inadequate or excessive amounts of rain during the growing season, overly wet conditions, an early freeze or snowy weather during harvest could impact the supply of corn that is needed to produce ethanol. Corn stored in an open pile may be damaged by rain or warm weather before the corn is dried, shipped or moved into a storage structure.
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Government mandates affecting ethanol could change and impact the ethanol market.
Under the provisions of the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA), Congress expanded the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS II). The RFS II mandates the minimum volume of renewable fuels that must be blended into the transportation fuel supply each year which affects the domestic market for ethanol. Each year the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is supposed to undertake rulemaking to set the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) for the following year, though at times months or years pass without a finalized RVO. Further, the EPA has the authority to waive the requirements, in whole or in part, if there is inadequate domestic renewable fuel supply or the requirement severely harms the economy or the environment. After 2022, volumes shall be determined by the EPA in coordination with the Secretaries of Energy and Agriculture, taking into account such factors as impact on environment, energy security, future rates of production, cost to consumers, infrastructure, and other factors such as impact on commodity prices, job creation, rural economic development, or impact on food prices.
According to the RFS II, if mandatory renewable fuel volumes are reduced by at least 20% for two consecutive years, the EPA is required to modify, or reset, statutory volumes through 2022; the year through which the statutorily prescribed volumes run. While conventional ethanol maintained 15 billion gallons, 2019 was the second consecutive year that the total RVO was more than 20% below the statutory volumes levels. Thus, the EPA was expected to initiate a reset rulemaking, and modify statutory volumes through 2022, and do so based on the same factors they are to use in setting the RVOs post-2022. However, on December 19, 2019, the EPA announced it would not be moving forward with a reset rulemaking. It is unclear when or if they will propose a reset rulemaking. The EPA has stated an intention to propose a post-2022 ‘set’ rulemaking by the end of 2021.
Volumes can also be impacted as small refineries can petition the EPA for an SRE which, if approved, waives their portion of the annual RVO requirements. The EPA, through consultation with the DOE and the USDA, can grant them a full or partial waiver, or deny it outright within 90 days of submittal. A small refinery is defined as one that processes fewer than 75,000 barrels of petroleum per day.
Our operations could be adversely impacted by legislation, administration actions, EPA actions, or lawsuits that may reduce the RFS II mandated volumes of conventional ethanol and other biofuels through the annual RVO, the 2022 set rulemaking, the point of obligation for blending, or small refinery exemptions. A recent Supreme Court ruling held that the small refineries can continue to apply for an extension of their waivers from the RFS II, even if they have not been awarded a continuous string of exemptions. A recent D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals ruling held that the EPA overstepped its authority in extending the one pound Reid Vapor Pressure waiver for 10% ethanol blends to 15% ethanol blends in the summer, effectively limiting summertime sales of ethanol blends above 10% to flex fuel vehicles (FFVs) from June 1 to September 15 each year.
Similarly, should federal mandates regarding oxygenated gasoline be repealed, the market for domestic ethanol could be adversely impacted. Economic incentives to blend based on the relative value of gasoline versus ethanol, taking into consideration the octane value of ethanol, environmental requirements and the RFS II mandate, may affect future demand. A significant increase in supply beyond the RFS II mandate could have an adverse impact on ethanol prices. Moreover, changes to RFS II could negatively impact the price of ethanol or cause imported sugarcane ethanol to become more economical than domestic ethanol. Likewise, national, state and regional low carbon fuel standards (LCFS) like that of California, Oregon, Brazil or Canada could be favorable or harmful to conventional ethanol, depending on how the regulations are crafted, enforced and modified.
Future demand may be influenced by economic incentives to blend based on the relative value of gasoline versus ethanol, taking into consideration the octane value of ethanol, environmental requirements and the value of RFS II credits or Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs). A significant increase in supply beyond the RFS II mandate could have an adverse impact on ethanol prices. Moreover, any changes to RFS II, whether by legislation, EPA action or lawsuit, originating from issues associated with the market price of RINs could negatively impact the demand for ethanol, discretionary blending of ethanol and/or the price of ethanol. Recent actions by the EPA to grant small refiner exemptions without accounting for the lost gallons, for example, resulted in lower RIN prices. Similarly, reducing annual RVO levels could also lead to lower RIN prices.
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Congress first enacted CAFE in 1975 to reduce energy consumption by increasing the fuel economy of cars and light trucks. FFVs, which are designed to run on a mixture of fuels, including higher blends of ethanol such as E85, used to receive preferential treatment in the form of corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) credits. There are approximately 21 million FFVs on the road in the U.S. today, 16 million of which are light duty trucks. FFV credits have been decreasing since 2014 and were completely phased out in 2020. Absent CAFE preferences or manufacturing tax credits, auto manufacturers may not be willing to build FFVs, which has the potential to slow the growth of E85 markets. However, California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard program (LCFS) has driven growth in E85 usage, and other state/regional LCFS programs have the potential to do the same.
To the extent federal or state laws or regulations are modified and/or enacted, it may result in the demand for ethanol being reduced, which could negatively and materially affect our financial performance.
Text extracted from the filing as submitted to EDGAR. Formatting, tables and exhibits are simplified for reading; the original document is authoritative for anything you rely on.