Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
The primary components of our market risk are related to interest rate risk, prepayment risk, and credit risk. We seek to actively manage these and other risks and to acquire and hold assets that we believe justify bearing those risks, and to maintain capital levels consistent with those risks.
Interest Rate Risk
Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors, including governmental monetary and tax policies, domestic and international economic and political considerations, and other factors beyond our control. We are subject to interest rate risk in connection with most of our assets and liabilities. For some securities in our portfolio, the coupon interest rates on, and therefore also the values of, such securities are highly sensitive to interest rate movements, such as inverse floating rate RMBS,
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which benefit from falling interest rates. Our repurchase agreements generally have maturities of up to 180 days and carry interest rates that are determined by reference to LIBOR or similar short-term benchmark rates for those same periods. Whenever one of our fixed-rate repo borrowings matures, it will generally be replaced with a new fixed-rate repo borrowing based on market interest rates prevailing at such time. Subject to maintaining our qualification as a REIT and our exclusion from registration under the Investment Company Act, we opportunistically hedge our interest rate risk by entering into interest rate swaps, TBAs, U.S. Treasury securities, Eurodollar and U.S. Treasury futures, and other instruments. In general, such hedging instruments are used to mitigate the interest rate risk arising from the mismatch between the duration of our financed Agency RMBS and the duration of the liabilities used to finance such assets.
In addition to measuring and mitigating the risk related to changes in interest rates with respect to the generally shorter-term liabilities we incur to acquire and hold generally longer-lived RMBS, we also monitor the effect of changes in interest rates on the discounted present value of our portfolio of assets and liabilities. The following sensitivity analysis table shows the estimated impact on the fair value of our portfolio segregated by certain identified categories as of December 31, 2020, assuming a static portfolio and immediate and parallel shifts in interest rates from current levels as indicated below.
(In thousands) Estimated Change for a Decrease in Interest Rates by Estimated Change for an Increase in Interest Rates by
50 Basis Points 100 Basis Points 50 Basis Points 100 Basis Points
Category of Instruments Market Value % of Total Equity Market Value % of Total Equity Market Value % of Total Equity Market Value % of Total Equity
Agency RMBS, excluding TBAs $ 7,729 4.64 % $ 15,203 9.14 % $ (7,985) (4.80) % $ (16,225) (9.75) %
TBAs (682) (0.41) % (4,339) (2.61) % (2,291) (1.38) % (7,556) (4.54) %
Non-Agency RMBS 399 0.24 % 900 0.54 % (297) (0.18) % (492) (0.29) %
U.S. Treasury Securities, Interest Rate Swaps, and Futures (9,395) (5.64) % (19,137) (11.50) % 9,045 5.44 % 17,738 10.66 %
Corporate Securities and Derivatives on Corporate Securities (1) — % (3) — % — — % — — %
Repurchase and Reverse Repurchase Agreements (333) (0.20) % (336) (0.20) % 659 0.40 % 1,319 0.79 %
Total $ (2,283) (1.37) % $ (7,712) (4.63) % $ (869) (0.52) % $ (5,216) (3.13) %
Our analysis of interest rate risk is derived from Ellington's proprietary models as well as third-party information and analytics. Many assumptions have been made in connection with the calculations set forth in the table above and, as such, there can be no assurance that assumed events will occur or that other events will not occur that would affect the outcomes. For example, for each hypothetical immediate shift in interest rates, assumptions have been made as to the response of mortgage prepayment rates, the shape of the yield curve, and market volatilities of interest rates; each of the foregoing factors can significantly and adversely affect the fair value of our interest rate sensitive instruments.
The above analysis utilizes assumptions and estimates based on management's judgment and experience, and relies on financial models, which are inherently imperfect; in fact, different models can produce different results for the same securities. While the table above reflects the estimated impacts of immediate parallel interest rate increases and decreases on specific categories of instruments in our portfolio, we intend to actively trade many of the instruments in our portfolio and intend to diversify our portfolio to reflect a portfolio comprised primarily of Agency RMBS, and, to a lesser extent, non-Agency RMBS and mortgage-related assets. Therefore, our current or future portfolios may have risks that differ significantly from those of our December 31, 2020 portfolio estimated above. Moreover, the impact of changing interest rates on fair value can change significantly when interest rates change by a greater amount than the hypothetical shifts assumed above. Furthermore, our portfolio is subject to many risks other than interest rate risks, and these additional risks may or may not be correlated with changes in interest rates. For all of the foregoing reasons and others, the table above is for illustrative purposes only and actual changes in interest rates would likely cause changes in the actual fair value of our portfolio that would differ from those presented above, and such differences might be significant and adverse. See "Business—Special Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements."
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Prepayment Risk
Prepayment risk is the risk of change, whether an increase or a decrease, in the rate at which principal is returned in respect to mortgage loans underlying RMBS, including both through voluntary prepayments and through liquidations due to defaults and foreclosures. This rate of prepayment is affected by a variety of factors, including the prevailing level of interest rates as well as economic, demographic, tax, social, legal, and other factors. Changes in prepayment rates will have varying effects on the different types of securities in our portfolio, and we attempt to take these effects into account in making asset management decisions. Additionally, increases in prepayment rates may cause us to experience losses on our investment in interest-only securities, or "IOs," and inverse interest only securities, or "IIOs," as these securities are extremely sensitive to prepayment rates. Finally, prepayment rates, besides being subject to interest rates and borrower behavior, are also substantially affected by government policy and regulation.
Credit Risk
We are subject to credit risk in connection with certain of our assets, especially our non-Agency RMBS. Credit losses on real estate loans underlying our non-Agency RMBS can occur for many reasons, including, but not limited to, poor origination practices, fraud, faulty appraisals, documentation errors, poor underwriting, legal errors, poor servicing practices, weak economic conditions, decline in the value of homes, special hazards, earthquakes and other natural events, over-leveraging of the borrower on the property, reduction in market rents and occupancies and poor property management services in the case of rented homes, changes in legal protections for lenders, reduction in personal income, job loss, and personal events such as divorce or health problems. Property values are subject to volatility and may be affected adversely by a number of factors, including, but not limited to, national, regional, and local economic conditions (which may be adversely affected by industry slowdowns and other factors), local real estate conditions (such as an oversupply of housing), changes or continued weakness in specific industry segments, construction quality, age and design, demographic factors, and retroactive changes to building or similar codes. For mortgage-related instruments, the two primary components of credit risk are default risk and severity risk.
Default Risk
Default risk is the risk that borrowers will fail to make principal and interest payments on their mortgage loans. Subject to maintaining our qualification as a REIT and our exclusion from registration under the Investment Company Act, we may selectively attempt to mitigate our default risk by, among other things, opportunistically entering into credit default swaps and total return swaps. These instruments can reference various RMBS indices, corporate bond indices, or corporate entities, such as publicly traded REITs. We also rely on third-party mortgage servicers to mitigate our default risk, but such third-party mortgage servicers may have little or no economic incentive to mitigate loan default rates.
Severity Risk
Severity risk is the risk of loss upon a borrower default on a mortgage loan underlying our RMBS. Severity risk includes the risk of loss of value of the property underlying the mortgage loan as well as the risk of loss associated with taking over the property, including foreclosure costs. We rely on third-party mortgage servicers to mitigate our severity risk, but such third-party mortgage servicers may have little or no economic incentive to mitigate loan loss severities. Such mitigation efforts may include loan modification programs and prompt foreclosure and property liquidation following a default.
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