Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk
Asset/Liability Management
Management considers interest rate risk to be our most significant market risk. Market risk is the risk of loss from adverse changes in market prices and rates. Interest rate risk is the exposure to adverse changes in our net income as a result of changes in interest rates.
Our primary earnings source is net interest income, which is affected by changes in the level of interest rates, the relationship between rates, the impact of interest rate fluctuations on asset prepayments, the level and composition of deposits and liabilities, and the credit quality of earning assets. Our asset and liability management objectives are to maintain a strong, stable net interest margin, to utilize our capital effectively without taking undue risks, to maintain adequate liquidity, and to reduce vulnerability of our operations to changes in interest rates.
Our Asset and Liability Committee evaluates periodically, but at least four times a year, the impact of changes in market interest rates on assets and liabilities, net interest margin, capital and liquidity. Risk assessments are governed by policies and limits established by senior management, which are reviewed and approved by the full Board of Directors at least annually. The economic environment continually presents uncertainties as to future interest rate trends. The Asset and Liability Committee regularly utilizes a model that projects net interest income based on increasing or decreasing interest rates, in order to be better able to respond to changes in interest rates.
At June 30, 2020, $557.9 million, or 86.0%, of our available for sale and held to maturity securities had fixed interest rates. At June 30, 2020, $2.9 billion, or 62.3%, of our loan portfolio had adjustable or floating interest rates. Changes in interest rates affect the value of our interest-earning assets and, in particular, our securities portfolio. Generally, the value of securities fluctuates inversely with changes in interest rates. Increases in interest rates could result in decreases in the market value of interest-earning assets, which could adversely affect our stockholders' equity and results of operations if sold. We are also subject to reinvestment risk associated with changes in interest rates. Changes in market interest rates also could affect the type (fixed-rate or adjustable-rate) and amount of loans we originate and the average life of loans and securities, which can impact the yields earned on our loans and securities. In periods of decreasing interest rates, the average life of loans and securities we hold may be shortened to the extent increased prepayment activity occurs during such periods which, in turn, may result in the investment of funds from such prepayments in lower yielding assets. Under these circumstances, we are subject to reinvestment risk to the extent that we are unable to reinvest the cash received from such prepayments at rates that are comparable to the rates on existing loans and securities. Additionally, increases in interest rates may result in decreasing loan prepayments with respect to fixed rate loans (and therefore an increase in the average life of such loans), may result in a decrease in loan demand, and may make it more difficult for borrowers to repay adjustable rate loans.
We utilize the results of a detailed and dynamic simulation model to quantify the estimated exposure of net interest income to sustained interest rate changes. Management routinely monitors simulated net interest income sensitivity over a rolling two-year horizon. The simulation model captures the impact of changing interest rates on the interest income received and the interest expense paid on all assets and liabilities reflected on our consolidated balance sheet. This sensitivity analysis is compared to the asset and liability policy limits that specify a maximum tolerance level for net interest income exposure over a one-year horizon given 100 and 200-basis point upward shifts in interest rates and a 100-basis point downward shift in interest rates. A parallel and pro-rata shift in rates over a twelve-month period is assumed.
In addition to the above scenarios, we consider other non-parallel rate shifts that would also exert pressure on earnings. The current low interest rate environment presents the possibility for a flattening of the yield curve, which presents a challenge to a bank, like us, that derives most of its revenue from net interest margin. During the six months ended June 30, 2020, the yield on U.S. Treasury 5-year notes decreased 140 basis points from 1.69% to 0.29%, while the yield on 3-month Treasury bills decreased 139 basis points from 1.55% to 0.16%. The 3-month/5-year Treasury spread decreased from 14 basis points at December 31, 2019 to 13 basis points at June 30, 2020, and continues to be considerably flat compared to the 3-month/5-year Treasury spread of 81 basis points at December 31, 2017. A continued flat or inverted yield curve in 2020 may adversely affect net interest income as borrowers tend to refinance higher-rate fixed rate loans at lower rates and we may not be able to reinvest those prepayments in assets earning interest rates as high as the rates on those prepaid assets.
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The following reflects our net interest income sensitivity analysis at June 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019:
June 30, 2020
Potential Change
in Future Net
Change in Interest
Interest Income
Rates in Basis Points
Year 1
Year 2
(Dollars in thousands)
$ Change
% Change
$ Change
% Change
200
$
5,155
3.14
%
$
(3,256)
(1.98)
%
100
2,528
1.54
(13,212)
(8.04)
Static
—
—
—
—
(100)
3,034
1.85
(19,692)
(11.98)
December 31, 2019
Potential Change
in Future Net
Change in Interest
Interest Income
Rates in Basis Points
Year 1
Year 2
(Dollars in thousands)
$ Change
% Change
$ Change
% Change
200
$
1,028
0.70
%
$
12,075
8.21
%
100
520
0.35
6,787
4.62
Static
—
—
—
—
(100)
(574)
(0.39)
(3,586)
(2.44)
As noted in the table above, a 200-basis point increase in interest rates is projected to increase net interest income by 3.14% in year 1 and decrease net interest income by 1.98% in year 2. Our balance sheet sensitivity to such a move in interest rates at June 30, 2020 increased as compared to December 31, 2019 (which was an increase of 0.70% in net interest income over a twelve-month period). This increase is the result of a higher portion of our loans repricing to market rates in addition to the increase in our floating rate portfolio over the last year. We also continue to show the ability to hold the costs of interest-bearing deposits to below market rates . Overall, our strategy has been to proactively take advantage of the falling rate cycle in aggressively lowering deposit costs, ultimately dampening the effect of variable and adjustable rate loan repricing and additional fixed rate loan refinancing. Over the intervening year, the effective duration (a measure of price sensitivity to interest rates) of the bond portfolio decreased from 2.35 years at December 31, 2019 to 2.11 years at June 30, 2020.
The preceding sensitivity analysis does not represent a Company forecast and should not be relied on as being indicative of expected operating results. These hypothetical estimates are based on numerous assumptions including, but not limited to, the nature and timing of interest rate levels and yield curve shapes, prepayments on loans and securities, deposit decay rates, pricing decisions on loans and deposits, and reinvestment and replacement of asset and liability cash flows. While assumptions are developed based on perceived current economic and local market conditions, we cannot make any assurances as to the predictive nature of these assumptions including how customer preferences or competitor influences may change. Also, as market conditions vary from those assumed in the sensitivity analysis, actual results will also differ due to prepayment and refinancing levels likely deviating from those assumed, the varying impact of interest rate change caps or floors on adjustable rate assets, the potential effect of changing debt service levels on customers with adjustable rate loans, depositor early withdrawals, prepayment penalties and product preference changes and other internal and external variables. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis does not reflect actions that management might take in responding to, or anticipating, changes in interest rates and market conditions.
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