Allison Transmission Holdings Inc 10-Q

ITEM 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk Our exposure to market risk consists of changes in interest rates, foreign currency rate fluctuations and movements in commodity prices. Interest Rate Risk We are subject to interest rate market risk in connection with a portion of our long-term debt. Our principal interest rate exposure relates to outstanding amounts under our New Senior Secured Credit Facility. Our New Senior Secured Credit Facility provides for variable rate borrowings of up to $1,235 million, including $595 million under our New Revolving Credit Facility, net of $5 million of letters of credit. A one-eighth percent increase or decrease in assumed interest rates for the New Senior Secured Credit Facility, if fully drawn, as of September 30, 2020 would have an impact of approximately $1 million on interest expense per year. As of September 30, 2020, we had no outstanding borrowings against the New Revolving Credit Facility. From time to time, we enter into interest rate swap agreements to hedge the risk associated with our variable interest rate debt. During the first quarter of 2019, we entered into $250 million of interest rate swaps and designated them as cash flow hedges under the hypothetical derivative method. As of September 30, 2020, we held interest rate swaps effective from (i) September 2019 to September 2022 with notional values totaling $250 million and a weighted average LIBOR fixed rate of 3.01%, (ii) September 2019 to September 2025 with notional values totaling $250 million and a weighted average LIBOR fixed rate of 3.04% and (iii) September 2022 to September 2025 with notional values totaling $250 million and a weighted average LIBOR fixed rate of 2.82%. Exchange Rate Risk While our net sales and costs are denominated primarily in U.S. Dollars, net sales, costs, assets and liabilities are generated in other currencies including Brazilian Real, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Chinese Yuan Renminbi, Euro, Hungarian Forint, Indian Rupee and Japanese Yen. The expansion of our business outside North America may further increase the risk that cash flows resulting from these activities may be adversely affected by changes in currency exchange rates. Assuming current levels of foreign currency transactions, a 10% aggregate increase or decrease in the Japanese Yen, Euro, Indian Rupee and Chinese Yuan Renminbi would correspondingly change our earnings, net of tax, by an estimated $4 million per year. We believe our other exposure to foreign currencies is immaterial. Commodity Price Risk We are subject to changes in our cost of sales caused by movements in underlying commodity prices. As of September 30, 2020, approximately 64% of our cost of sales consists of purchased components with significant raw material content. A substantial portion of the purchased parts are made of aluminum and steel. The cost of aluminum parts includes an adjustment factor on future purchases for fluctuations in aluminum prices based on accepted industry indices. In addition, a substantial amount of steel-based contracts also include an index-based component. As our costs change, we are able to pass through a portion of the changes in commodity prices to certain of our customers according to our long-term agreements (“LTAs”). We historically have not entered into long-term purchase contracts related to the purchase of aluminum and steel. Assuming current levels of commodity purchases, a 10% variation in the price of aluminum and steel would correspondingly change our earnings by approximately $4 million and $5 million per year, respectively. Many of our LTAs have incorporated a cost-sharing arrangement related to potential future commodity price fluctuations. For purposes of the sensitivity analysis above, the impact of these cost sharing arrangements has not been included. 40 Table of Contents ITEM 4. Controls and Procedures Evaluation of Disclosure Controls and Procedures Our management, with the participation of our Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer, evaluated the effectiveness of our disclosure controls and procedures (as defined in Rules 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e) under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”)) as of the end of the period covered by this report. In designing and evaluating the disclosure controls and procedures, management recognized that any controls and procedures, no matter how well designed and operated, can provide only reasonable assurance of achieving the desired control objectives. In addition, the design of disclosure controls and procedures must reflect the fact that there are resource constraints and that management is required to apply its judgment in evaluating the benefits of possible controls and procedures relative to their costs. Based on the evaluation, our Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer concluded that our disclosure controls and procedures as of the end of the period covered by this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q were effective to provide reasonable assurance that information we are required to disclose in reports that we file or submit under the Exchange Act is recorded, processed, summarized and reported within the time periods specified in the Securities and Exchange Commission rules and forms, and that such information is accumulated and communicated to our management, including our Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer, as appropriate, to allow timely decisions regarding required disclosure. Changes in Internal Control over Financial Reporting There were no changes in our internal control over financial reporting (as defined in Rules 13a-15(f) and 15d-15(f) under the Exchange Act) during the period covered by this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, our internal control over financial reporting. 41 Table of Contents PART II. OTHER INFORMATION