Dilution profile // every instrument, one screen, from SEC filings

BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY)

CIK 1753539 · all EDGAR filings →

Overall dilution risk
HIGHworst of 4 computed signals (offering ability)
= the worst band among the computed sub-ratings, no hidden weighting
Offering ability
HIGH$250M registered
= total registered offering amount from the fee exhibits of live registrations (bands: $1M / $20M)
one or more live registrations had no structured fee data, so the true total is AT LEAST this
Overhead supply
LOWwarrants = 5% of O/S
= warrant shares outstanding divided by current shares outstanding (bands: 20% / 50%)
warrants only; converts, ATMs and equity lines are not in free structured data, so the true overhead is AT LEAST this
Historical dilution
LOW-71% O/S in 3y
= share count now vs 3 years ago (bands: 30% / 100%); a reverse split pushes this negative
a reverse-split-sized cliff is in this window; read the chart
Cash need
LOW~99.3 months of runway
= cash vs trailing operating burn (bands: 6mo / 24mo; positive operating CF = low)

Same rating bands the category standard uses, but free, with the formula on the chip and the gaps in the data said out loud.

Shares outstanding over time

2021-08-122026-08-03

Latest: 40.9M shares as of Aug 3, 2026 (10-Q). Share count fell from 148.9M to 30.8M between Aug 6, 2024 and Nov 5, 2024, a pattern consistent with a reverse split (roughly 1-for-5); simultaneous issuance can skew the raw ratio, so confirm in the filings. The red bar marks the cliff.

Cash runway

Self-funding

profitable · generates cash

Full breakdown: cash runway tool · source filing →

Warrants

TrancheWarrantsExercise priceTermNotes
Public Placement Warrants2.0M$92FV $791,000
Private Warrants Tranche Three1.4M$17.61FV $31.7M
Private Warrants Tranche One520,000$92FV $208,000
Private Warrants Tranche Two520,000$160FV $21,000

Tranches exactly as the company dimensioned them in its 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026. Groupings can overlap (a “Series E and F” row is not additive with a “Series E” row), so do not sum this column. A tranche the filer did not tag is absent here, not absent from the cap table. DOWN-ROUND = the filer tagged price-protection accounting scoped to that tranche.

Warrants outstanding: 2.0M underlying shares, as reported Mar 31, 2025 (10-Q).

Reported exercise price: $0.11 (aggregate figure as tagged; individual tranches vary).

Balance-sheet fair value of warrants: $47.4M as of Jun 30, 2021.

Rough fully diluted estimate: 43.0M = 40.9M O/S + 2.0M warrant shares. An estimate, not a filing figure: it ignores converts, options and RSUs, and the two inputs carry different as-of dates.

Convertible notes

NotePrincipalCarryingConv. priceRateIf converted
Convertible Notes Due August 2033$185.0M$36.788.25%~5.0M sh

If every note above converted at its tagged price: ~5.0M new shares on 40.9M currently outstanding. An estimate from principal ÷ conversion price, with inputs carrying different as-of dates; make-whole adjustments, capped calls and partial repurchases are not modeled.

Notes exactly as the company dimensioned them in its 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026. Principal is face amount as tagged, not what remains after repurchases unless the filer updated the tag. A note the filer did not dimension is absent here, not absent from the balance sheet; the exhibits stay the ground truth.

Fully diluted build-up

Shares outstanding plus every potential-share instrument the filer tagged in XBRL, each at its own as-of date. An estimate assembled from filed figures, not a filing figure itself.

Shares outstanding40.9MAug 3, 2026
+ Public Placement Warrants (if exercised)2.0MJun 30, 2026
+ Private Warrants Tranche Three (if exercised)1.4MJun 30, 2026
+ Private Warrants Tranche One (if exercised)520,000Jun 30, 2026
+ Private Warrants Tranche Two (if exercised)520,000Jun 30, 2026
+ Convertible Notes Due August 2033 (if fully converted)5.0MJul 31, 2025
Fully diluted estimate50.4M+23.2% vs O/S

Still excluded, because the filer does not tag them in countable form: employee options and RSUs, any instrument living only in exhibit prose, and instruments above missing a share count. Inputs carry different as-of dates, shown per row. Each figure traces to the tranche and note tables above and their cited filings.

Registrations and offerings

Registered offering capacity on live registrations: $250.0Mfrom the structured fee exhibits; registered is not remaining, takedowns are not subtracted

S-3ASRMay 22, 2026fee exhibit found but no total offering amount (fees deferred, typical for automatic shelves)filing →
S-3Nov 26, 2025$250.0M registeredfiling →

Last 12 months: 2 executed · 2 registered.

EFFECTIVEMay 26, 2026SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT
REGISTEREDMay 22, 2026Automatic shelf registration — effective immediately (large filers)S-3ASR
EXECUTEDMay 22, 2026Shelf takedown priced — shares or notes (small-caps: usually shares; open the filing to confirm)424B5
EXECUTEDDec 12, 2025Shelf takedown priced — shares or notes (small-caps: usually shares; open the filing to confirm)424B5
EFFECTIVEDec 12, 2025SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT
REGISTEREDNov 26, 2025S-3 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-3
EXECUTEDJul 22, 2025Unregistered share sale disclosed (8-K item 3.02)8-K
EXECUTEDSep 25, 2024Shelf takedown priced — shares or notes (small-caps: usually shares; open the filing to confirm)424B5
EXECUTEDSep 24, 2024Shelf takedown priced — shares or notes (small-caps: usually shares; open the filing to confirm)424B5
UPDATEApr 10, 2023Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3
EFFECTIVEApr 10, 2023SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT
REGISTEREDMar 31, 2023S-3 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-3

Full history and shelf status: offering checker · S-3 shelf checker

Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts and filing metadata, fetched live and cached briefly. Share counts are cover-page figures with their form named. Warrant tranches and convertible notes come from the dimensioned facts in the latest 10-Q/10-K instance document, exactly as the company tagged them; untagged tranches and notes are absent, not disproven. Nothing on this page is manually verified and nothing is behind a login: what free data supports is shown, what it cannot support is stated. Not investment advice.

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