Dilution profile // every instrument, one screen, from SEC filings

Velo3D, Inc. (VELO)

CIK 1825079 · all EDGAR filings →

Overall dilution risk
HIGHworst of 4 computed signals (offering ability)
= the worst band among the computed sub-ratings, no hidden weighting
Offering ability
HIGH$610M registered
= total registered offering amount from the fee exhibits of live registrations (bands: $1M / $20M)
registered capacity, not remaining: amounts already taken down are not subtracted yet
Overhead supply
LOWwarrants = 0% of O/S
= warrant shares outstanding divided by current shares outstanding (bands: 20% / 50%)
warrants only; converts, ATMs and equity lines are not in free structured data, so the true overhead is AT LEAST this
Historical dilution
LOW-84% O/S in 3y
= share count now vs 3 years ago (bands: 30% / 100%); a reverse split pushes this negative
a reverse-split-sized cliff is in this window; read the chart
Cash need
LOW~40 months of runway
= cash vs trailing operating burn (bands: 6mo / 24mo; positive operating CF = low)
the company itself flagged going-concern doubt

Same rating bands the category standard uses, but free, with the formula on the chip and the gaps in the data said out loud.

Shares outstanding over time

2021-11-122026-08-07

Latest: 32.1M shares as of Aug 7, 2026 (10-Q). Share count fell from 296.2M to 8.6M between May 10, 2024 and Aug 7, 2024, a pattern consistent with a reverse split (roughly 1-for-34); simultaneous issuance can skew the raw ratio, so confirm in the filings. The red bar marks the cliff.

Cash runway

Going-concern warning

auditor flagged substantial doubt

The company itself flagged going-concern doubt in a filing.

Full breakdown: cash runway tool · source filing →

Warrants

TrancheWarrantsExercise priceTermNotes
April and July Two Thousand Twenty Four Unregistered Warrants151,808not tagged
August Two Thousand Twenty Four Registered Warrants99,048not tagged
New Warrants99,048$34.2
April Two Thousand Twenty Four Registered Warrants60,150not tagged
Warrant Inducement Agreement49,524$34.2
Warrant To Purchase Common Stock36,892not tagged
December Two Thousand Twenty Three Registered Warrants19,048not tagged
Public Warrants16,429$6037.5
Private Warrants8,477$6037.5
Bepo Warrants5,157$183.75
A2023 Private Warrant B3,429$326.29
Bepo Agent Warrants3,266$202.125

Tranches exactly as the company dimensioned them in its 10-Q filed Aug 11, 2026. Groupings can overlap (a “Series E and F” row is not additive with a “Series E” row), so do not sum this column. A tranche the filer did not tag is absent here, not absent from the cap table. DOWN-ROUND = the filer tagged price-protection accounting scoped to that tranche.

Warrants outstanding: 36,892 underlying shares, as reported Jun 30, 2026 (10-Q).

Reported exercise price: $12.25 (aggregate figure as tagged; individual tranches vary).

Balance-sheet fair value of warrants: $150,000 as of Jun 30, 2026.

Rough fully diluted estimate: 32.2M = 32.1M O/S + 36,892 warrant shares. An estimate, not a filing figure: it ignores converts, options and RSUs, and the two inputs carry different as-of dates.

Convertible notes

NotePrincipalCarryingConv. priceRateIf converted
February Note$10.0M$10.530%~952,381 sh
January Note$5.0M$0$16.3860%~305,250 sh

If every note above converted at its tagged price: ~1.3M new shares on 32.1M currently outstanding. An estimate from principal ÷ conversion price, with inputs carrying different as-of dates; make-whole adjustments, capped calls and partial repurchases are not modeled.

Notes exactly as the company dimensioned them in its 10-Q filed Aug 11, 2026. Principal is face amount as tagged, not what remains after repurchases unless the filer updated the tag. A note the filer did not dimension is absent here, not absent from the balance sheet; the exhibits stay the ground truth.

Fully diluted build-up

Shares outstanding plus every potential-share instrument the filer tagged in XBRL, each at its own as-of date. An estimate assembled from filed figures, not a filing figure itself.

Shares outstanding32.1MAug 7, 2026
+ April and July Two Thousand Twenty Four Unregistered Warrants (if exercised)151,808Feb 24, 2025
+ August Two Thousand Twenty Four Registered Warrants (if exercised)99,048Feb 24, 2025
+ New Warrants (if exercised)99,048Aug 12, 2024
+ April Two Thousand Twenty Four Registered Warrants (if exercised)60,150Feb 24, 2025
+ Warrant Inducement Agreement (if exercised)49,524Aug 12, 2024
+ Warrant To Purchase Common Stock (if exercised)36,892Jun 30, 2026
+ December Two Thousand Twenty Three Registered Warrants (if exercised)19,048Feb 24, 2025
+ Public Warrants (if exercised)16,429Jun 30, 2026
+ Private Warrants (if exercised)8,477Jun 30, 2026
+ Bepo Warrants (if exercised)5,157Jun 30, 2026
+ A2023 Private Warrant B (if exercised)3,429Jun 30, 2026
+ Bepo Agent Warrants (if exercised)3,266Jun 30, 2026
+ February Note (if fully converted)952,381Mar 4, 2026
+ January Note (if fully converted)305,250Mar 4, 2026
Fully diluted estimate34.0M+5.6% vs O/S

Still excluded, because the filer does not tag them in countable form: employee options and RSUs, any instrument living only in exhibit prose, and instruments above missing a share count. Inputs carry different as-of dates, shown per row. Each figure traces to the tranche and note tables above and their cited filings.

Registrations and offerings

Registered offering capacity on live registrations: $610.3Mfrom the structured fee exhibits; registered is not remaining, takedowns are not subtracted

S-3May 14, 2026$42.8M registeredfiling →
S-3Apr 3, 2026$500.0M registeredfiling →
S-3Jan 13, 2026$67.5M registeredfiling →

Last 12 months: 4 executed · 6 registered.

UPDATEMay 18, 2026Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3
EFFECTIVEMay 18, 2026SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT
EXECUTEDMay 15, 2026Shelf takedown priced — shares or notes (small-caps: usually shares; open the filing to confirm)424B5
REGISTEREDMay 14, 2026S-3 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-3
EXECUTEDApr 27, 2026Shelf takedown priced — shares or notes (small-caps: usually shares; open the filing to confirm)424B5
EFFECTIVEApr 8, 2026SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT
REGISTEREDApr 3, 2026S-3 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-3
UPDATEJan 20, 2026Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3
UPDATEJan 20, 2026Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3
EFFECTIVEJan 20, 2026SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT
EFFECTIVEJan 20, 2026SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT
REGISTEREDJan 13, 2026S-3 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-3

Full history and shelf status: offering checker · S-3 shelf checker

Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts and filing metadata, fetched live and cached briefly. Share counts are cover-page figures with their form named. Warrant tranches and convertible notes come from the dimensioned facts in the latest 10-Q/10-K instance document, exactly as the company tagged them; untagged tranches and notes are absent, not disproven. Nothing on this page is manually verified and nothing is behind a login: what free data supports is shown, what it cannot support is stated. Not investment advice.

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