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Dilution profile // every instrument, one screen, from SEC filings

NIOCORP DEVELOPMENTS LTD (NIOBW)

CIK 1512228 · all EDGAR filings →

Overall dilution risk
HIGHworst of 4 computed signals (offering ability)
= the worst band among the computed sub-ratings, no hidden weighting
Offering ability
HIGHS-3ASR on file 2025-10-10
= is there a registration (S-1/S-3 family) on file without a later withdrawal
no structured fee data on the live registrations, so this is a yes/no, not a size
Overhead supply
LOWwarrants = 13% of O/S
= warrant shares outstanding divided by current shares outstanding (bands: 20% / 50%)
warrants only; converts, ATMs and equity lines are not in free structured data, so the true overhead is AT LEAST this
Historical dilution
HIGH+379% O/S in 3y
= share count now vs 3 years ago (bands: 30% / 100%); a reverse split pushes this negative
a reverse-split-sized cliff is in this window; read the chart
Cash need
LOW~471.9 months of runway
= cash vs trailing operating burn (bands: 6mo / 24mo; positive operating CF = low)
the company itself flagged going-concern doubt

Same rating bands the category standard uses, but free, with the formula on the chip and the gaps in the data said out loud.

Shares outstanding over time

2020-09-162026-05-14

Latest: 145.6M shares as of May 14, 2026 (10-Q). Share count fell from 278.1M to 27.9M between Sep 6, 2022 and Nov 14, 2022, a pattern consistent with a reverse split (roughly 1-for-10); simultaneous issuance can skew the raw ratio, so confirm in the filings. The red bar marks the cliff.

Cash runway

Going-concern warning

auditor flagged substantial doubt

The company itself flagged going-concern doubt in a filing.

Full breakdown: cash runway tool · source filing →

Warrants

Warrants outstanding: 19.1M underlying shares, as reported Mar 31, 2026 (10-Q).

Reported exercise price: $9.46 (aggregate figure as tagged; individual tranches vary).

Balance-sheet fair value of warrants: $2.4M as of Jun 30, 2024.

Rough fully diluted estimate: 164.7M = 145.6M O/S + 19.1M warrant shares. An estimate, not a filing figure: it ignores converts, options and RSUs, and the two inputs carry different as-of dates.

Convertible notes

No convertible-note facts tagged in the 10-Q filed May 14, 2026. If convertible notes exist, their terms live in exhibit prose for this filer and are not parsed; absence of a tag is not proof of absence. The exhibits are the ground truth.

Fully diluted build-up

Shares outstanding plus every potential-share instrument the filer tagged in XBRL, each at its own as-of date. An estimate assembled from filed figures, not a filing figure itself.

Shares outstanding145.6MMay 14, 2026
+ Warrants (aggregate, as tagged) (if exercised)19.1MMar 31, 2026
Fully diluted estimate164.7M+13.1% vs O/S

Still excluded, because the filer does not tag them in countable form: employee options and RSUs, any instrument living only in exhibit prose, and instruments above missing a share count. Inputs carry different as-of dates, shown per row. Each figure traces to the tranche and note tables above and their cited filings.

Registrations and offerings

S-3ASROct 10, 2025fee exhibit found but no total offering amount (fees deferred, typical for automatic shelves)filing →
S-1Feb 19, 2025no fee data found in the structured exhibitsfiling →
S-3Jun 13, 2024no structured fee exhibit in this filing (predates fee-data XBRL or fee deferred)filing →

Last 12 months: 4 executed · 1 registered.

EXECUTEDFeb 25, 2026Prospectus supplement priced — shares or notes (large filers: often a bond deal)424B2 →
EXECUTEDFeb 24, 2026Prospectus supplement priced — shares or notes (large filers: often a bond deal)424B2 →
UPDATEJan 20, 2026Resale prospectus — existing holders registering to sell424B7 →
EXECUTEDOct 14, 2025Shelf takedown priced — shares or notes (small-caps: usually shares; open the filing to confirm)424B5 →
EXECUTEDOct 14, 2025Prospectus supplement priced — shares or notes (large filers: often a bond deal)424B2 →
REGISTEREDOct 10, 2025Automatic shelf registration — effective immediately (large filers)S-3ASR →
UPDATESep 29, 2025Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3 →
UPDATESep 26, 2025Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3 →
UPDATESep 18, 2025Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3 →
UPDATEJul 18, 2025Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3 →
UPDATEJul 17, 2025Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3 →
UPDATEApr 18, 2025Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3 →

Full history and shelf status: offering checker · S-3 shelf checker

Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts and filing metadata, fetched live and cached briefly. Share counts are cover-page figures with their form named. Warrant tranches and convertible notes come from the dimensioned facts in the latest 10-Q/10-K instance document, exactly as the company tagged them; untagged tranches and notes are absent, not disproven. Nothing on this page is manually verified and nothing is behind a login: what free data supports is shown, what it cannot support is stated. Not investment advice.

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