Dilution profile // every instrument, one screen, from SEC filings

MultiSensor AI Holdings, Inc. (MSAIW)

CIK 1863990 · all EDGAR filings →

Overall dilution risk
HIGHworst of 4 computed signals (offering ability)
= the worst band among the computed sub-ratings, no hidden weighting
Offering ability
HIGH$126M registered
= total registered offering amount from the fee exhibits of live registrations (bands: $1M / $20M)
one or more live registrations had no structured fee data, so the true total is AT LEAST this
Overhead supply
HIGHwarrants = 414% of O/S
= warrant shares outstanding divided by current shares outstanding (bands: 20% / 50%)
warrants only; converts, ATMs and equity lines are not in free structured data, so the true overhead is AT LEAST this
Historical dilution
LOW-57% O/S in 3y
= share count now vs 3 years ago (bands: 30% / 100%); a reverse split pushes this negative
a reverse-split-sized cliff is in this window; read the chart
Cash need
LOW~31.4 months of runway
= cash vs trailing operating burn (bands: 6mo / 24mo; positive operating CF = low)
the company itself flagged going-concern doubt

Same rating bands the category standard uses, but free, with the formula on the chip and the gaps in the data said out loud.

Shares outstanding over time

2021-12-022026-08-10

Latest: 2.2M shares as of Aug 10, 2026 (10-Q). Share count fell from 80.5M to 2.0M between Mar 9, 2026 and May 6, 2026, a pattern consistent with a reverse split (roughly 1-for-40); simultaneous issuance can skew the raw ratio, so confirm in the filings. The red bar marks the cliff.

Cash runway

Going-concern warning

auditor flagged substantial doubt

The company itself flagged going-concern doubt in a filing.

Full breakdown: cash runway tool · source filing →

Warrants

TrancheWarrantsExercise priceTermNotes
Warrants20254.5M$5.987y
Public Warrants215,625$11.5
Private Placement Warrants12,657$11.5
Financing Warrants8,507$460

Tranches exactly as the company dimensioned them in its 10-Q filed Aug 13, 2026. Groupings can overlap (a “Series E and F” row is not additive with a “Series E” row), so do not sum this column. A tranche the filer did not tag is absent here, not absent from the cap table. DOWN-ROUND = the filer tagged price-protection accounting scoped to that tranche.

Warrants outstanding: 9.1M underlying shares, as reported Dec 31, 2023 (10-K).

Reported exercise price: $460 (aggregate figure as tagged; individual tranches vary).

Balance-sheet fair value of warrants: $10,000 as of Mar 31, 2026.

Rough fully diluted estimate: 11.3M = 2.2M O/S + 9.1M warrant shares. An estimate, not a filing figure: it ignores converts, options and RSUs, and the two inputs carry different as-of dates.

Convertible notes

No convertible-note facts tagged in the 10-Q filed Aug 13, 2026. If convertible notes exist, their terms live in exhibit prose for this filer and are not parsed; absence of a tag is not proof of absence. The exhibits are the ground truth.

Fully diluted build-up

Shares outstanding plus every potential-share instrument the filer tagged in XBRL, each at its own as-of date. An estimate assembled from filed figures, not a filing figure itself.

Shares outstanding2.2MAug 10, 2026
+ Warrants2025 (if exercised)4.5MJun 30, 2026
+ Public Warrants (if exercised)215,625Apr 13, 2026
+ Private Placement Warrants (if exercised)12,657Apr 13, 2026
+ Financing Warrants (if exercised)8,507Apr 13, 2026
Fully diluted estimate6.9M+215.1% vs O/S

Still excluded, because the filer does not tag them in countable form: employee options and RSUs, any instrument living only in exhibit prose, and instruments above missing a share count. Inputs carry different as-of dates, shown per row. Each figure traces to the tranche and note tables above and their cited filings.

Registrations and offerings

Registered offering capacity on live registrations: $126.1Mfrom the structured fee exhibits; registered is not remaining, takedowns are not subtracted

S-3Dec 12, 2025$126.1M registeredfiling →
S-3Jan 23, 2025no structured fee exhibit in this filing (predates fee-data XBRL or fee deferred)filing →
S-3Jan 23, 2025no structured fee exhibit in this filing (predates fee-data XBRL or fee deferred)filing →

Last 12 months: 7 executed · 2 registered.

EXECUTEDJul 20, 2026Unregistered share sale disclosed (8-K item 3.02)8-K
EXECUTEDApr 21, 2026Unregistered share sale disclosed (8-K item 3.02)8-K
EXECUTEDMar 13, 2026Shelf takedown priced — shares or notes (small-caps: usually shares; open the filing to confirm)424B5
UPDATEDec 30, 2025Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3
EFFECTIVEDec 30, 2025SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT
EXECUTEDDec 23, 2025Unregistered share sale disclosed (8-K item 3.02)8-K
REGISTEREDDec 23, 2025S-3/A registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-3/A
REGISTEREDDec 12, 2025S-3 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-3
EXECUTEDNov 5, 2025Shelf takedown priced — shares or notes (small-caps: usually shares; open the filing to confirm)424B5
EXECUTEDNov 4, 2025Shelf takedown priced — shares or notes (small-caps: usually shares; open the filing to confirm)424B5
EXECUTEDOct 30, 2025Unregistered share sale disclosed (8-K item 3.02)8-K
EXECUTEDMar 28, 2025Shelf takedown priced — shares or notes (small-caps: usually shares; open the filing to confirm)424B5

Full history and shelf status: offering checker · S-3 shelf checker

Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts and filing metadata, fetched live and cached briefly. Share counts are cover-page figures with their form named. Warrant tranches and convertible notes come from the dimensioned facts in the latest 10-Q/10-K instance document, exactly as the company tagged them; untagged tranches and notes are absent, not disproven. Nothing on this page is manually verified and nothing is behind a login: what free data supports is shown, what it cannot support is stated. Not investment advice.

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