Item 1A. Risk Factors
Item 1A. Risk Factors
The risks and uncertainties described below are those that we currently believe could materially adversely affect us. Other risks and uncertainties that we do not presently consider to be material or of which we are not presently aware may become important factors that affect us in the future. If any of the risks discussed below actually occur, our business, financial condition, operating results or cash flows could be materially adversely affected. Accordingly, you should carefully consider the following risk factors, as well as other information contained in or incorporated by reference in this Annual Report.
The ongoing coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic could adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and demand for our products and services.
Since January 2020, the COVID-19 outbreak, characterized as a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020, has caused, and could possibly continue to cause a widespread health crisis and significantly disrupt the U.S. and global economies, markets and supply chains. The ultimate impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic on our business, financial condition, results of operations and the demand for our products and services in the future is uncertain, and it is impossible to predict whether any impacts we have experienced to date would continue or worsen in the future. The extent to which the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic will impact our business, financial condition, results of operations, and demand for our products and services will depend on future developments including the ongoing geographic spread of COVID-19, the impact of COVID-19 mutations, the severity of the pandemic, the duration of the COVID-19 outbreak, and the type and duration of actions that may be taken by various governmental authorities in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact on the U.S. and the global economies, markets, and supply chains. COVID-19, and other adverse public health developments in countries and states where we operate, therefore, could have a material and adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and the demand for our products and services. These effects could include a negative impact on the availability of our employees, temporary closures of our facilities or the facilities of our business partners, customers, suppliers, third party service providers or other vendors, and the interruption of domestic and global supply chains, distribution channels, liquidity and capital markets. In addition, we have taken and will continue to take precautionary measures, including through consultation with governmental authorities and union representatives, intended to help minimize the risk of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic to our employees, including implementing work-from-home protocols, instituting mandatory stay-at-home policies for those who are ill or significantly exposed to COVID-19, acquiring personal protective equipment (PPE), increasing sanitation and special sanitation of work areas, mandating social distancing (particularly among our employees engaged in manual processes), altering work arrangements to maintain social distancing and limiting visitors and non-employees at our facilities. Our business continuity plans and other safeguards, however, may not be effective to mitigate the results of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
The impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and any worsening of the global business and economic environment as a result may also exacerbate the following risk factors discussed below in this Form 10-K, any of which could have a material effect on us. This situation remains fluid and additional impacts may arise that we are not aware of currently.
Operating Factors
In areas where we purchase leaf tobacco directly from farmers, we bear the risk that the tobacco we receive will not meet quality and quantity requirements.
When we contract directly with tobacco farmers or tobacco farmer cooperatives, which is the method we use to purchase tobacco in most countries, we bear the risk that the tobacco delivered may not meet customer quality and quantity requirements. If the tobacco does not meet such market requirements, we may not be able to fill all of our customers’ orders, and such failure would have an adverse effect on profitability and results of operations. In a contract market our obligation is to purchase the entire tobacco plant, which encompasses many leaf styles, therefore, we also have a risk that not all of that production will be readily marketable at prices that support acceptable margins. In addition, in many foreign countries where we purchase tobacco directly from farmers, we provide them with financing. Unless we receive marketable tobacco that meets the quality and quantity specifications of our customers, we bear the risk that we will not be able to fully recover our crop advances or recover them in a reasonable period of time.
The leaf tobacco industry is competitive, and we are heavily reliant on a few large customers.
We are one of two major independent global competitors in the leaf tobacco industry, both of whom are reliant upon a few large customers. The loss of one of those large customers or a significant decrease in their demand for our products or services could significantly decrease our sales of products or services, which would have a material adverse effect on our results of operations. The competition among leaf tobacco suppliers and dealers is based on the ability to meet customer requirements in the buying, processing, and financing of tobacco, and on the price charged for products and services. We believe that we consistently meet our customers’ requirements and charge competitive prices. Since we rely upon a few significant customers, the consolidation or failure of any of these large customers, or a significant increase in their vertical integration, could contribute to a significant decrease in our sales of products and services.
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We compete for both the purchase and sale of leaf with smaller leaf tobacco suppliers in some of the markets where we conduct business. Some of these smaller leaf tobacco suppliers operate in more than one country. Since they typically provide little or no support to farmers, these leaf tobacco suppliers typically have lower overhead requirements than we do. Due to their lower cost structures, they often can offer prices on products and services that are lower than our prices. Our customers also directly source leaf tobacco from farmers to meet some of their raw material needs. Direct sourcing provides our customers with some qualities and quantities of leaf tobacco that they prefer not to use in their existing blends and that may be offered for sale. This competition for both the sale and purchase of leaf, both with smaller leaf tobacco suppliers and direct sourcing, could reduce the volume of the leaf we handle and could negatively impact our financial results.
Our financial results can be significantly affected by changes in the balance of supply and demand for leaf tobacco.
With respect to our leaf tobacco operations, our financial results can be significantly affected by changes in the overall balance of worldwide supply and demand for leaf tobacco. The demand for leaf tobacco, which is based upon customers’ expectations of their future requirements, can change from time to time depending upon factors affecting the demand for their products. Our customers’ expectations and their demand for leaf tobacco are influenced by a number of factors, including:
• trends in the global consumption of cigarettes,
• trends in consumption of cigars and other tobacco products,
• trends in consumption of alternative tobacco products, such as electronic nicotine delivery systems and non-combustible products,
• levels of competition among our customers, and
• regulatory and governmental factors.
The world supply of leaf tobacco at any given time is a function of current tobacco production, inventories held by manufacturers, and the stocks of leaf tobacco held by leaf tobacco suppliers. Production of tobacco in a given year may be significantly affected by such factors as:
• demographic shifts that change the number of farmers or the amount of land available to grow tobacco,
• decisions by farmers to grow crops other than leaf tobacco,
• volume of annual tobacco plantings and yields realized by farmers,
• availability of crop inputs,
• weather and natural disasters, including any adverse weather conditions that may result from climate change, and
• crop infestation and disease.
Any significant change in these factors could cause a material imbalance in the supply of and demand for tobacco, which would affect our results of operations.
Our financial results will vary according to tobacco growing conditions, customer requirements, and other factors. These factors may also limit the ability to accurately forecast our future performance and increase the risk of an investment in our common stock or other securities.
Our financial results, particularly our year-over-year quarterly comparisons, may be significantly affected by variations in tobacco growing seasons and fluctuations in crop sizes. The timing of the cultivation and delivery of tobacco is dependent upon a number of factors, including weather and other natural events, and our processing schedules and results of operations can be significantly altered by these factors. In addition, the potential impact of climate change is uncertain and may vary by geographic region. The possible effects, as described in various public accounts, could include changes in rainfall patterns, water shortages, changing storm patterns and intensities, and changing temperature levels that could adversely impact our costs and business operations and the supply and demand for leaf tobacco. Our operations also rely on dependable and efficient transportation services. A disruption in transportation services, as a result of climate change or otherwise, may also significantly impact our results of operations.
Further, the timing of customer orders and shipments may vary and may require us to keep tobacco in inventory and may also result in variations in quarterly and annual financial results. We base sales recognition on meeting our performance obligation under our contract with the customer, which generally occurs with the passage of ownership of the tobacco. Since individual shipments may represent significant amounts of revenue, our quarterly and annual financial results may vary significantly depending on the timing of needs and shipping instructions of our customers and the availability of transportation services. These fluctuations result in varying volumes and sales in given periods, which also reduce the comparability of financial results.
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Major shifts in customer requirements for leaf tobacco supply may significantly affect our operating results.
If our customers significantly alter their requirements for tobacco volumes from certain regions, we may have to change our production facilities and alter our fixed asset base in certain origins. Permanent or long-term reduction in demand for tobacco from origins where we have operations may trigger restructuring and impairment charges. We may also need to make significant capital investments in other regions to develop the needed infrastructure to meet customer supply requirements.
Weather and other conditions can affect the marketability of our products.
Tobacco and other agricultural crops are subject to vagaries of weather and the environment that can, in some cases, change the quality or size of the crops. If a weather event is particularly severe, such as a major drought or hurricane, the affected crop could be destroyed or damaged to an extent that it would be less desirable to manufacturers, which would result in a reduction in revenues. If such an event is also widespread, it could affect our ability to acquire the quantity of tobacco or fruit and vegetable ingredients required by our customers. In addition, other factors can affect the marketability of tobacco, including, among other things, the presence of excess residues of crop protection agents or non-tobacco related materials. A significant event impacting the condition or quality of a large amount of any of the crops that we buy could make it difficult for us to sell these products or to fill customers’ orders.
Our food ingredient business is subject to industry-specific risks which could adversely affect our operating results.
Our food ingredients business is subject to risks posed by food spoilage or food contamination; shifting consumer preferences; federal, state, and local food processing regulations; product tampering; and product liability claims. If one or more of these risks were to materialize, our revenues and operating results could be adversely affected, and our reputation might be damaged.
We may not be successful in pursuing strategic investments or acquisitions or realize the expected benefits of those transactions because of integration difficulties and other challenges.
While we may identify opportunities for acquisitions and investments to support our growth strategy, as well as divestiture opportunities, our due diligence examinations and positions that we may take with respect to appropriate valuations for acquisitions and divestitures and other transaction terms and conditions may hinder our ability to successfully complete business transactions to achieve our strategic goals. We compete with other acquisitive entities for suitable acquisition candidates. This competition may increase the price for acquisitions and reduce the number of acquisition candidates available to us. As a result, our ability to acquire businesses in the future, and to acquire such businesses on favorable terms, may be limited. Our ability to realize the anticipated benefits from acquisitions will depend, in part, on successfully integrating each business with our Company as well as improving operating performance and profitability through our management efforts and capital investments. The risks to a successful integration and improvement of operating performance and profitability include, among others, failure to implement our business plan, unanticipated issues in integrating operations with ours, unanticipated changes in laws and regulations, regulatory, environmental and permitting issues, unfavorable customer reactions, the effect on our internal controls and compliance with the regulatory requirements under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, and difficulties in fully identifying and evaluating potential liabilities, risks and operating issues. In order to finance such acquisitions, we may need to obtain additional funds either through public or private financings, including bank and other secured and unsecured borrowings and the issuance of debt or equity securities. There can be no assurance that such financings would be available to us on reasonable terms or that any future issuances of securities in connection with acquisitions will not be dilutive to our shareholders. The occurrence of any of these events may adversely affect our expected benefits of any acquisitions and may have a material adverse effect on our financial condition, results of operations or cash flows.
We may be adversely impacted if our information technology systems fail to perform adequately, including with respect to cybersecurity issues.
The efficient operation of our business depends on our information technology systems. We rely on our information technology systems to effectively manage our business data, communications, supply chain, order entry and fulfillment, and other business processes. The failure of our information technology systems (including those provided to us by third parties) to perform as we anticipate could disrupt our business and affect our results of operations.
In addition, our information technology systems may be vulnerable to damage or interruption from circumstances beyond our control, including fire, natural disasters, systems failures, security breaches or intrusions (including theft of confidential data), and viruses. If we are unable to prevent physical and electronic break-ins, cyber-attacks and other information security breaches, we may suffer financial and reputational damage, be subject to litigation, or incur remediation costs or penalties because of the unauthorized disclosure of confidential information belonging to us or to our partners, customers, suppliers, or employees.
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Regulatory and Governmental Factors
Government efforts to regulate the production and consumption of tobacco products could have a significant impact on the businesses of our leaf tobacco customers, which would, in turn, affect our results of operations.
Governments continue their efforts to reduce the consumption of tobacco products globally by advancing regulations that, among other things, restrict or prohibit tobacco product use, advertising and promotion, increase taxes on tobacco products, limit nicotine levels in tobacco products, or eliminate the use of characterizing flavors.
A number of such measures are included in the World Health Organization’s (“WHO”) Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (“FCTC”), which entered into force on February 27, 2005, and currently has 181 Parties to the Convention. The Conference of the Parties (“COP”), which is the governing body of the WHO FCTC and is comprised of all Parties to the Convention, meets every two years to consider amendments to the agreement and track progress in the implementation of the treaty’s 38 articles. It is not possible to predict how the signatories to the FCTC may choose to fulfill their obligations or the manner or the pace with which they may implement the FCTC articles, and they may take actions that could restrict or prohibit tobacco usage that could materially affect our business and our results of operations.
We also cannot predict the extent or speed at which the efforts of governments or non-governmental agencies to reduce tobacco consumption might affect the business of our primary customers. However, a significant decrease in worldwide tobacco consumption brought about by existing or future laws and regulations would reduce demand for tobacco products and could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations.
Government actions can have a significant effect on the sourcing of leaf tobacco. If some of the current efforts are successful, we could have increased barriers in meeting our customers’ requirements, which could have an adverse effect on our performance and results of operations.
A variety of government actions can have a significant effect on the sourcing and production of leaf tobacco. If some of the current proposed efforts are successful, we could have increased barriers to meeting our customers’ requirements, which could have an adverse effect on our performance and results of operations.
The WHO, through the FCTC, has specifically issued policy options and recommendations to promote crop diversification initiatives and alternatives to growing leaf tobacco in countries whose economies depend upon tobacco production. If certain countries were to follow these policy recommendations and seek to eliminate or significantly reduce leaf tobacco production, we could encounter difficulty in sourcing leaf tobacco from these regions to fill customer requirements, which could have an adverse effect on our results of operations.
Certain recommendations by the WHO, through the FCTC, may also cause shifts in customer usage of certain styles of tobacco. In countries such as Canada and Brazil and in the European Union, efforts have been taken to eliminate certain ingredients from the manufacturing process for tobacco products. The FCTC and national governments have also discussed formulating a strategy to place limitations on the level of nicotine allowed in tobacco and tobacco smoke. Such decisions could cause a change in requirements for certain styles of tobacco in particular countries. Shifts in customer demand from one type of tobacco to another could create sourcing challenges as requirements move from one origin to another.
Regulations impacting our customers that change the requirements for leaf tobacco or restrict their ability to sell their products would inherently impact our business. We have established programs that begin at the farm level to assist our customers’ collection of raw material information to support leaf traceability and customer testing requirements, including the identification of nicotine levels. Additionally, given our global presence, we also have the ability to source different types and styles of tobacco for our customers should their needs change due to regulation. Despite our programs, the extent to which governmental actions will impact our business, financial condition, results of operations and demand for our products and services will depend on future developments, which are highly uncertain and cannot be predicted.
Continuous changes in bilateral, multilateral, and international trade agreements also have the potential to disrupt or impact Universal operations. For example, the World Trade Organization’s resolution on the Large Civil Aircraft Dispute between the United States and the European Union resulted in both bodies imposing tariffs on a variety of products, including leaf tobacco. While these tariffs have been temporarily lifted and negotiations continue, drastic changes in global trade remains a risk to our results of operations. In addition, some trade proposals have included provisions that could effectively allow governments to regulate tobacco products differently than other products. These carve outs could negatively impact the industry and impact requirements for leaf tobacco.
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We conduct a significant portion of our operations internationally, so political and economic uncertainties in particular countries could have an adverse effect on our performance and results of operations.
Our international operations are subject to uncertainties and risks relating to the political stability of certain foreign governments, principally in developing countries and emerging markets, as well as to the effects of changes in the trade policies and economic regulations of foreign governments. These uncertainties and risks, which include undeveloped or antiquated commercial law, the expropriation, indigenization, or nationalization of assets, and the authority to revoke or refuse to renew business licenses and work permits, may adversely impact our ability to effectively manage our operations in those countries. We have substantial capital investments in South America and Africa, and the performance of our operations in those regions can materially affect our earnings. If the political situation in any of the countries where we conduct business were to deteriorate significantly, our ability to recover assets located there could be impaired. To the extent that we do not replace any lost volumes of leaf tobacco with leaf tobacco from other sources, or we incur increased costs related to such replacement, our financial condition or results of operations, or both, would suffer.
Increasing scrutiny and changing expectations from governments, as well as other stakeholders such as investors and customers, with respect to our Environmental, Social and Governance (“ESG”) policies may impose additional costs on us or expose us to additional risks.
Governments, the non-governmental community, and industry increasingly understand the importance of implementing comprehensive environmental, labor, and governance practices. Our commitment to sustainability remains at the core of our business, and we continue to implement what we believe are responsible ESG practices. Government regulations, however, could result in new or more stringent forms of ESG oversight and disclosures. These may lead to increased expenditures for environmental controls, land use restrictions, reporting, and other conditions which could have an adverse effect on our performance and results of operations.
In addition, a number of governments are considering due diligence procedures to ensure strict compliance with environmental, labor, and government regulations. The European Union has recently proposed broad due diligence reporting requirements for all industries operating within Europe. The United States has called for a broader and more robust approach to labor compliance in foreign jurisdictions, which could include some of our strategic origins. Due to general uncertainty regarding the timing, content, and extent of any such regulatory changes in the United States or abroad, we cannot predict the impact, if any, that these changes could have to our business, financial condition, and results of operations.
Changes in tax laws in the countries where we do business may adversely affect our results of operations.
Through our subsidiaries, we are subject to the tax laws of many jurisdictions. Changes in tax laws or the interpretation of tax laws can affect our earnings, as can the resolution of various pending and contested tax issues. In most jurisdictions, we regularly have audits and examinations by the designated tax authorities, and additional tax assessments are common. We believe that we comply with applicable tax laws in the jurisdictions where we operate, and we vigorously contest all significant tax assessments where we believe we are in compliance with the tax laws.
Financial Factors
Failure of our customers or suppliers to repay extensions of credit could materially impact our results of operations.
In our tobacco operations, we extend credit to both suppliers and customers. A significant bad debt provision related to amounts due could adversely affect our results of operations. In addition, crop advances to leaf tobacco farmers are generally secured by the farmers’ agreement to deliver green tobacco. In the event of crop failure, delivery failure, or permanent reductions in crop sizes, full recovery of advances may never be realized, or otherwise could be delayed until future crops are delivered. See Notes 1 and 17 to the consolidated financial statements in Item 8 for more information on these extensions of credit.
Fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates may affect our results of operations.
We account for most of our tobacco operations using the U.S. dollar as the functional currency. The international tobacco trade generally is conducted in U.S. dollars, and we finance most of our tobacco operations in U.S. dollars. Although this generally limits foreign exchange risk to the economic risk that is related to leaf purchase and production costs, overhead, and income taxes in the source country, significant currency movements could materially impact our results of operations. Changes in exchange rates can make a particular leaf tobacco crop more or less expensive in U.S. dollar terms. If a particular crop is viewed as expensive in U.S. dollar terms, it may be less attractive in the world market. This could negatively affect the profitability of that crop and our results of operations. In tobacco markets that are primarily domestic, the local currency is the functional currency. In addition, the local currency is the functional currency in other leaf tobacco markets, such as Western Europe, where export sales have been denominated primarily in local currencies. In these markets, reported earnings are affected by the translation of the local currency into the U.S. dollar. See Item 7A, “Qualitative and Quantitative Disclosure About Market Risk” for additional discussion related to foreign currency exchange risk.
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Our purchases of tobacco are generally made in local currency, and we also provide farmer advances that are denominated in the local currency. We account for currency remeasurement gains or losses on those advances as period costs, and they are usually accompanied by offsetting increases or decreases in the purchase cost of tobacco, which is priced in the local currency. The effect of differences in the cost of tobacco is generally not realized in our earnings until the tobacco is sold, which often occurs in a quarter or fiscal year subsequent to the recognition of the related remeasurement gains or losses. The difference in timing could affect our profitability in a given quarter or fiscal year.
We have used currency hedging strategies to reduce our foreign currency exchange rate risks in some markets. In addition, where we source tobacco in countries with illiquid or nonexistent forward foreign exchange markets, we often manage our foreign exchange risk by matching funding for tobacco inventory purchases with the currency of sale and by minimizing our net investment in these countries. To the extent that we have net monetary assets or liabilities in local currency, and those balances are not hedged, we may have currency remeasurement gains or losses that will affect our results of operations.
Changes in interest rates may affect our results of operations.
We generally use both fixed and floating interest rate debt to finance our operations. Changes in market interest rates expose us to changes in cash flows for floating rate instruments and to changes in fair value for fixed rate instruments. We normally maintain a proportion of our debt in both variable and fixed interest rates to manage this exposure, and from time to time we may enter hedge agreements to swap the interest rates. In addition, our customers may pay market rates of interest for leaf tobacco inventory purchased on order, which could mitigate a portion of the floating interest rate exposure on short-term borrowings. To the extent we are unable to match these interest rates, a decrease in interest rates could increase our net financing costs. We also periodically have large cash balances and may receive deposits from tobacco customers, both of which we use to fund seasonal purchases of tobacco, reducing our financing needs. Decreases in short-term interest rates could reduce the income we derive from those investments. Changes in interest rates also affect expense related to our defined benefit pension plan, as described below.
Low investment performance by our defined benefit pension plan assets and changes in pension plan valuation assumptions may increase our pension expense and may require us to fund a larger portion of our pension obligations, thus diverting funds from other potential uses.
We sponsor domestic defined benefit pension plans that cover certain eligible employees. Our results of operations may be positively or negatively affected by the amount of expense we record for these plans. U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”) require that we calculate expense for the plans using actuarial valuations. These valuations reflect assumptions about financial market and other economic conditions that may change based on changes in key economic indicators. The most significant year-end assumptions we used to estimate pension expense for fiscal year 2021 were the discount rate, the expected long-term rate of return on plan assets, and the mortality rates. In addition, we are required to make an annual measurement of plan assets and liabilities, which may result in a significant change to shareholders’ equity through a reduction or increase to the “Pension and other postretirement benefit plans” component of Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss. At the end of fiscal year 2021, the projected benefit obligation of our qualified U.S. pension plan was $250 million and plan assets were $261 million. For a discussion regarding how our financial statements can be affected by pension plan valuation assumptions, see “Critical Accounting Estimates – Pension and Other Postretirement Benefit Plans” in “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in Item 7 and in Note 13 to the consolidated financial statements in Item 8. Although GAAP expense and pension funding contributions are not directly related, key economic factors that affect GAAP expense can also affect the amount of cash we are required to contribute to our pension plans under requirements of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (“ERISA”). Failure to achieve expected returns on plan assets could also result in an increase to the amount of cash we would be required to contribute to our pension plans. In order to maintain or improve the funded status of our plans, we may also choose to contribute more cash to our plans than required by ERISA regulations.
Item 1B. Unresolved Staff Comments
None
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