What changed in this filing

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Item 2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis

2025-08-08 compared with 2025-05-09 · 106 added, 75 removed, 430 unchanged (30% of the section changed)

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USCF believes that the net effect of these relationships will be that the daily changes in the price of USO’s shares on the NYSE Arca on a percentage basis will closely track the daily changes in the spot price of a barrel of light, sweet crude oil on a percentage basis, plus interest earned on USO’s collateral holdings, less USO’s expenses.

The following chart shows, for the period ending March 31, 2025, the rolling 30-day average difference between USO’s NAV and the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract.

The following chart shows, for the period ending June 30, 2025, the rolling 30-day average difference between USO’s NAV and the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract.

This is measured by subtracting the return of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract from the return on USO’s NAV for each of the last thirty business days, and then averaging those thirty differences.

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USO may invest in Oil Futures Contracts beyond the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract, and/or Other Oil-Related Investments, as a result of, or in response to, any of the foregoing factors.

In addition, USO may need to hold significant portions of its portfolio in cash beyond what it has historically held for reasons including (but not limited to) the need to address changes in market conditions, regulatory requirements or risk mitigation measures or the need to satisfy potential margin requirements.

In addition, USO may need to hold significant portions of its portfolio in

cash beyond what it has historically held for reasons including (but not limited to) the need to address changes in market conditions, regulatory requirements or risk mitigation measures or the need to satisfy potential margin requirements.

Investments in Oil Futures Contracts beyond the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract and Other Oil-Related Investments could result in wider deviations between the performance of USO’s investments and the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract than if USO’s investments primarily consisted of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract, and changes in USO’s share price may not be able to track changes in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract within as narrow a percentage change difference for any period of 30 successive valuation days as it would if USO’s investments primarily consisted of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract.

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If deemed necessary by the NYMEX and/or ICE Futures, USO could be required to reduce its aggregate position in Crude Oil Futures CL contracts back to the 10,000 single month and/or 20,000 all month accountability level.

As of March 31, 2025, USO held 9,485 NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Futures CL contracts and did not hold any ICE WTI Crude Oil Futures contracts.

USO exceeded accountability levels of the NYMEX during the three months ended March 31, 2025, including when it held a maximum of 13,786 Crude Oil Futures CL contracts on the NYMEX, exceeding the “any” month limit.

As of June 30, 2025, USO held 13,845 NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Futures CL contracts and did not hold any ICE WTI Crude Oil Futures contracts.

USO exceeded accountability levels of the NYMEX during the six months ended June 30, 2025, including when it held a maximum of 16,232 Crude Oil Futures CL contracts on the NYMEX, exceeding the “any” month limit.

No action was taken by the NYMEX and USO did not have to reduce the number of positions held.

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Investors should note that the foregoing accountability levels and position limits are subject to change, which in turn could change the amount and type of permitted investments in which USO invests.

For the three months ended March 31, 2025, USO did not exceed any position limits imposed by the NYMEX and ICE Futures.

For the six months ended June 30, 2025, USO did not exceed any position limits imposed by the NYMEX and ICE Futures.

The foregoing accountability levels and position limits are subject to change.

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The Margin Rules require Swap Entities to exchange variation margin with all of their counterparties who are financial end-users.

The minimum variation margin amount is the daily mark-to-market change in the value of the swap, taking into account the

amount of variation margin previously posted or collected.

The minimum variation margin amount is the daily mark-to-market change in the value of the swap, taking into account the amount of variation margin previously posted or collected.

Swap Entities are required to exchange initial margin with their financial end-users who have “material swaps exposure” (i.e., an average daily aggregate notional of $8 billion or more in non-cleared swaps calculated in accordance with the Margin Rules).

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Such events can, directly or indirectly, negatively impact, and/or cause volatility in, the price of commodities such as crude oil and the value, pricing, and liquidity of the investments or other assets held by USO.

and acts of terrorism, can also, directly or indirectly, negatively impact, and/or cause volatility in, the price of commodities such as crude oil and the value, pricing, and liquidity of the investments or other assets held by USO.

Ú negative impact on, or volatility in, the price of crude oil or the value, pricing and liquidity of USO’s investments or other assets resulting from the occurrence of any of the aforementioned events, or similar events, could cause you to lose all, or substantially all, of your investment in USO.

Geopolitical conflict, including war and armed conflicts (such as the Russia-Ukraine war, conflicts in the Middle East, and the expansion of such conflicts in surrounding areas), sanctions, the introduction of or changes in tariffs or trade barriers, global or local recessions, and acts of terrorism, can also, directly or indirectly, negatively impact, and/or cause volatility in, the price of commodities such as crude oil and the value, pricing, and liquidity of the investments or other assets held by USO.

A negative impact on, or volatility in, the price of crude oil or the value, pricing and liquidity of USO’s investments or other assets resulting from the occurrence of any of the aforementioned events, or similar events, could cause you to lose all, or substantially all, of your investment in USO.

USO may be subject to interest rate risk, which may prevent USO from investing fully at prevailing rates until any current investments in Treasuries mature in order to avoid selling those investments at a loss.

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Price Movements

Crude oil futures prices were volatile during the three months ended March 31, 2025.

Crude oil futures prices were volatile during the six months ended June 30, 2025.

The price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract started the period at $71.72 per barrel.

The high of the period was on January 15, 2025 when the price reached $78.84 per barrel.

The low of the period was on March 10, 2025 when the price dropped to $65.86 per barrel.

The low of the period was on May 5, 2025 when the price dropped to $57.05 per barrel.

The period ended with the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract at $65.11 per barrel, a decrease of approximately (9.22)% over the period.

USO’s per share NAV began the period at $75.45 and ended the period at $77.35 on March 31, 2025, an increase of approximately 2.52% over the period.

The Benchmark Oil Futures Contract prices listed above began with the February 2025 contracts and ended with the May 2025 contracts.

USO’s per share NAV began the period at $75.45 and ended the period at $73.25 on June 30, 2025, an decrease of approximately (2.92)% over the period.

The Benchmark Oil Futures Contract prices listed above began with the February 2025 contracts and ended with the August 2025 contracts.

The decrease of approximately (9.22)% on the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract listed above is a hypothetical return only and would not actually be realized by an investor holding Oil Futures Contracts.

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Furthermore, the change in the nominal price of these differing Oil Futures Contracts, measured from the start of the year to the end of the year, does not represent the actual benchmark results that USO seeks to track, which are more fully described below in the section titled “Tracking USO’s Benchmark.”

During the three months ended March 31, 2025, the crude oil futures market experienced states of both contango and backwardation.

During the six months ended June 30, 2025, the crude oil futures market experienced states of mild contango.

On days when the market was in contango the price of the near month crude Oil Futures Contract was lower than the price of the next month crude Oil Futures Contract, or contracts further away from expiration.

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Results of Operations.

As of March 31, 2025, USO had 12,623,603 shares outstanding.

As of June 30, 2025, USO had 15,423,603 shares outstanding.

On August 29, 2023, the SEC declared effective a registration statement filed by USO that registered an unlimited number of shares.

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The accompanying unaudited financial statements have been adjusted to reflect the effect of the reverse share split on a retroactive basis.

As of March 31, 2025, USO had the following Authorized Participants:

As of June 30, 2025, USO had the following Authorized Participants:

ABN AMRO Clearing USA LLC, BNP Paribas Securities Corp., Citadel Securities LLC, Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Goldman Sachs & Company, Jane Street Capital LLC, JP Morgan Securities LLC, Merrill Lynch Professional Clearing Corp., Morgan Stanley & Company Inc., RBC Capital Markets LLC, SG Americas Securities LLC, UBS Securities LLC and Virtu Americas LLC.

For the Three Months Ended March 31, 2025 Compared to the Three Months Ended March 31, 2024

March 31, 2025

March 31, 2024

For the Six Months Ended June 30, 2025 Compared to the Six Months Ended June 30, 2024

June 30, 2025

June 30, 2024

Average daily total net assets

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Portfolio Expenses .

USO’s expenses consist of investment management fees, brokerage fees and commissions, certain offering costs, licensing fees, registration fees, the fees and expenses of the independent directors of USCF and expenses relating to tax accounting and

reporting requirements.

The management fee that USO pays to USCF is calculated as a percentage of the total net assets of USO.

The fee is accrued daily and paid monthly.

Average interest rates earned on short-term investments held by USO, including cash, cash equivalents and Treasuries, were lower during the six months ended June 30, 2025, compared to the six months ended June 30, 2024.

As a result, the amount of income earned by USO as a percentage of average daily total net assets was lower during the six months ended June 30, 2025, compared to the six months ended June 30, 2024.

To the degree that the aggregate yield is lower, the net expense ratio, inclusive of income, will be higher.

The decrease in total fees and other expenses excluding management fees for the six months ended June 30, 2025, compared to the six months ended June 30, 2024, was due primarily to a decrease in tax reporting and professional fees.

The increase in total commissions accrued to brokers for the six months ended June 30, 2025, compared to the six months ended June 30, 2024, was due primarily to a higher number of Oil Futures Contracts being held and traded.

For the Three Months Ended June 30, 2025 Compared to the Three Months Ended June 30, 2024

June 30, 2025

June 30, 2024

Average daily total net assets

1,332,495,576

Dividend and interest income earned on Treasuries, cash and/or cash equivalents

Annualized yield based on average daily total net assets

Management fee

Total fees and other expenses excluding management fees

Total commissions accrued to brokers

Total commissions as annualized percentage of average total net assets

Portfolio Expenses .

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The fee is accrued daily and paid monthly.

Average interest rates earned on short-term investments held by USO, including cash, cash equivalents and Treasuries, were lower during the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to the three months ended March 31, 2024.

As a result, the amount of income earned by USO as a percentage of average daily total net assets was lower during the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to the three months ended March 31, 2024.

Average interest rates earned on short-term investments held by USO, including cash, cash equivalents and Treasuries, were lower during the three months ended June 30, 2025, compared to the three months ended June 30, 2024.

As a result, the amount of income earned by USO as a percentage of average daily total net assets was lower during the three months ended June 30, 2025, compared to the three months ended June 30, 2024.

To the degree that the aggregate yield is lower, the net expense ratio, inclusive of income, will be higher.

The decrease in total fees and other expenses excluding management fees for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to the three months ended March 31, 2024, was due primarily to an decrease in tax reporting and professional fees.

The decrease in total commissions accrued to brokers for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to the three months ended March 31, 2024, was due primarily to a lower number of Oil Futures Contracts being held and traded.

The decrease in total fees and other expenses excluding management fees for the three months ended June 30, 2025, compared to the three months ended June 30, 2024, was due primarily to a decrease in tax reporting and professional fees.

The increase in total commissions accrued to brokers for the three months ended June 30, 2025, compared to the three months ended June 30, 2024, was due primarily to a higher number of Oil Futures Contracts being held and traded.

Tracking USO’s Benchmark

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As an example, if the average daily movement of the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract for a particular 30-valuation day time period was 0.50% per day, USCF would attempt to manage the portfolio such that the average daily movement of the per share NAV during that same time period fell between 0.45% and 0.55% (i.e., between 0.9 and 1.1 of the benchmark’s results).

USO’s portfolio management goals do not include trying to make the nominal price of USO’s per share NAV equal to the nominal price of the current Benchmark Oil Futures Contract or the spot price for light, sweet crude oil.

USO’s portfolio management goals do not include trying to make the nominal price of USO’s per share NAV equal to the nominal price of the current Benchmark Oil

Futures Contract or the spot price for light, sweet crude oil.

USCF believes that it is not practical to manage the portfolio to achieve such an investment goal when investing in Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments.

For the 30-valuation days ended March 31, 2025, the average daily change in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract was 0.064%, while the average daily change in the per share NAV of USO over the same time period was 0.077%.

For the 30-valuation days ended June 30, 2025, the average daily change in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract was 0.301%, while the average daily change in the per share NAV of USO over the same time period was 0.313%.

The average daily difference was 0.012% (or 1.2 basis points, where 1 basis point equals 1/100 of 1%), meaning that over this time period USO’s NAV performed within the plus or minus 10% range established as its benchmark tracking goal.

Since the commencement of the offering of USO’s shares to the public on April 10, 2006 to March 31, 2025, the average daily change in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract was 0.003%, while the average daily change in the per share NAV of USO over the same time period was (0.009)%.

Since the commencement of the offering of USO’s shares to the public on April 10, 2006 to June 30, 2025, the average daily change in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract was 0.002%, while the average daily change in the per share NAV of USO over the same time period was (0.010)%.

The average daily difference was (0.012)% (or (1.2) basis points, where 1 basis point equals 1/100 of 1%), meaning that over this time period USO’s NAV performed within the plus or minus 10% range established as its benchmark tracking goal.

The following two charts demonstrate the correlation between the changes in USO’s NAV and the changes in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract.

The first chart below shows the daily movement of USO’s per share NAV versus the daily movement of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract for the 30 valuation day period ended March 31, 2025.

The second chart below shows the monthly total returns of USO as compared to the monthly value of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract for the five years ended March 31, 2025.

The first chart below shows the daily movement of USO’s per share NAV versus the daily movement of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract for the 30 valuation day period ended June 30, 2025.

The second chart below shows the monthly total returns of USO as compared to the monthly value of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract for the five years ended June 30, 2025.

*PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

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An alternative tracking measurement of the return performance of USO versus the return of its Benchmark Oil Futures Contract can be calculated by comparing the actual return of USO, measured by changes in its per share NAV, versus the expected changes in its per share NAV under the assumption that USO’s returns had been exactly the same as the daily changes in its Benchmark Oil Futures Contract.

For the three months ended March 31, 2025, the actual total return of USO as measured by changes in its per share NAV was 2.52%.

This is based on an initial per share NAV of $75.45 as of December 31, 2024 and an ending per share NAV as of March 31, 2025 of $77.35.

For the six months ended June 30, 2025, the actual total return of USO as measured by changes in its per share NAV was (2.92)%.

This is based on an initial per share NAV of $75.45 as of December 31, 2024 and an ending per share NAV as of June 30, 2025 of $73.25.

During this time period, USO made no distributions to its shareholders.

However, if USO’s daily changes in its per share NAV had instead exactly tracked the changes in the daily total return of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract, USO would have had an estimated per share NAV of $76.16 as of March 31, 2025, for a total return over the relevant time period of 0.94%.

The difference

between the actual per share NAV total return of USO of 2.52% and the expected total return based on the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract of 0.94% was a difference over the time period of 1.58%, which is to say that USO’s actual total return outperformed its benchmark by that percentage.

However, if USO’s daily changes in its per share NAV had instead exactly tracked the changes in the daily total return of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract, USO would have had an estimated per share NAV of $71.59 as of June 30, 2025, for a total return over the relevant time period of (5.12)%.

The difference between the actual per share NAV total return of USO of (2.92)% and the expected total return based on the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract of (5.12)% was a difference over the time period of 2.20%, which is to say that USO’s actual total return outperformed its benchmark by that percentage.

USO incurs expenses primarily composed of the management fee, brokerage commissions for the buying and selling of futures contracts, and other expenses.

The impact of these expenses, offset by interest and dividend income, and net of positive or negative execution, and net the difference in returns between USO’s current holdings and the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract tend to cause daily changes in the per share NAV of USO to track slightly lower or higher than daily changes in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract.

By comparison, for the three months ended March 31, 2024, the actual total return of USO as measured by changes in its per share NAV was 17.96%.

This is based on an initial per share NAV of $66.91 as of December 31, 2023 and an ending per share NAV as of March 31, 2024 of $78.93.

The impact of these expenses, offset by interest and dividend income, and net of positive or negative execution, and net the difference in returns between USO’s current holdings and the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract tend to cause daily changes in the per share NAV of USO to track slightly higher or lower than daily changes in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract.

By comparison, for the six months ended June 30, 2024, the actual total return of USO as measured by changes in its per share NAV was 19.01%.

This is based on an initial per share NAV of $66.91 as of December 31, 2023 and an ending per share NAV as of June 30, 2024 of $79.63.

During this time period, USO made no distributions to its shareholders.

However, if USO’s daily changes in its per share NAV had instead exactly tracked the changes in the daily total return of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract, USO would have had an estimated per share NAV of $78.17 as of March 31, 2024, for a total return over the relevant time period of 16.81%.

However, if USO’s daily changes in its per share NAV had instead exactly tracked the changes in the daily total return of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract, USO would have had an estimated per share NAV of $78.07 as of June 30, 2024, for a total return over the relevant time period of 16.68%.

The difference between the actual per share NAV total return of USO of 19.01% and the expected total return based on the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract of 16.68% was a difference over the time period of 2.33%, which is to say that USO’s actual total return outperformed its benchmark by that percentage.

USO incurs expenses primarily composed of the management fee, brokerage commissions for the buying and selling of futures contracts, and other expenses.

The impact of these expenses, offset by interest and dividend income, and net of

positive or negative execution, and net the difference in returns between USO’s current holdings and the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract tend to cause daily changes in the per share NAV of USO to track slightly higher or lower than daily changes in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract.

As a result of market conditions and the regulatory response that occurred in March 2020 and thereafter, large numbers of USO shares that were purchased during a short period of time, and regulatory accountability levels and position limits on oil futures contracts that were imposed on USO, and risk mitigation measures imposed by its FCMs, USO invested in Oil Futures Contracts in months other than the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract.

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In addition, USO may need to hold significant portions of its portfolio in cash beyond what it has historically held for reasons including (but not limited to) the need to address the changes in market conditions, regulatory requirements or risk mitigation measures or the need to satisfy potential margin requirements.

During the first quarter of 2025 the rolling 30 day average daily difference between the return of USO’s NAV and the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract was 0.013% or 1.30 basis points.

During the second quarter of 2025 the rolling 30 day average daily difference between the return of USO’s NAV and the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract was 0.012% or 1.2 basis points).

There are three factors that typically have impacted or are most likely to impact USO’s ability to accurately track Benchmark Oil Futures Contract in addition to the foregoing.

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In that case, USO may pay a price that is higher or lower, than the closing settlement price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract, which could cause the changes in the daily per share NAV of USO to either be higher or lower relative to the daily changes in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract.

During the three months ended March 31, 2025, USCF attempted to minimize the effect of these transactions by seeking to execute its purchase or sale of Oil Futures Contracts at, or as close as possible to, the end of the day settlement price.

During the six months ended June 30, 2025, USCF attempted to minimize the effect of these transactions by seeking to execute its purchase or sale of Oil Futures Contracts at, or as close as possible to, the end of the day settlement price.

However, it may not always be possible for USO to obtain the settlement price and there is no assurance that failure to obtain the closing settlement price in the future will not adversely impact USO’s attempt to track the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract.

Second, USO incurs expenses primarily composed of the management fee, brokerage commissions for the buying and selling of futures contracts, and other expenses.

The impact of these expenses tends to cause daily changes in the per share NAV of USO to track slightly

lower or higher than daily changes in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract.

The impact of these expenses tends to cause daily changes in the per share NAV of USO to track slightly lower than daily changes in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract.

At the same time, USO earns dividend and interest income on its cash, cash equivalents and Treasuries.

USO is not required to distribute any portion of its income to its shareholders and did not make any distributions to shareholders during the three months ended March 31, 2025.

USO is not required to distribute any portion of its income to its shareholders and did not make any distributions to shareholders during the six months ended June 30, 2025.

Interest payments, and any other income, were retained within the portfolio and added to USO’s NAV.

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In that case, the error in tracking the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract could result in daily changes in the per share NAV of USO that are either too high, or too low, relative to the daily changes in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract.

During the three months ended March 31, 2025, USO held OTC swaps, which are considered Other Oil-Related Investments.

During the six months ended June 30, 2025, USO held OTC swaps, which are considered Other Oil-Related Investments.

If USO increases in size, and due to its obligations to comply with market conditions, regulatory limits, and risk mitigation measures imposed by its FCMs, USO may invest in additional Other Oil-Related Investments, such as OTC swaps, which may have the effect of increasing transaction related expenses and may result in increased tracking error.

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In this example, the value of an investment in the next month futures contract would tend to outperform the spot price of crude oil.

As a result, it would be possible for the new near month futures contract to rise 12% while the spot price of crude oil may have risen a lower amount,

e.g., only 10%.

As a result, it would be possible for the new near month futures contract to rise 12% while the spot price of crude oil may have risen a lower amount, e.g., only 10%.

Similarly, the spot price of crude oil could have fallen 10% while the value of an investment in the futures contract might have fallen another amount, e.g., only 8%.

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Following the global financial crisis in the fourth quarter of 2008, the crude oil market moved into contango and remained primarily in contango until 2013.

In 2014, global crude oil inventories grew rapidly after OPEC voted to defend its market share against U.S.

In 2014, global crude oil inventories

grew rapidly after OPEC voted to defend its market share against U.S.

shale-oil producers, resulting in another period during which the crude oil market remained primarily in contango.

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Crude Oil Market .

During the three months ended March 31, 2025, the price of the front month WTI crude oil futures contract traded in a range between $66.03 to $80.04.

Prices decreased (0.33)% from December 31, 2024 through March 31, 2025, finishing the quarter at $71.48.

During the six months ended June 30, 2025, the price of the front month WTI crude oil futures contract traded in a range between $57.13 to $80.04.

Prices decreased (9.22)% from December 31, 2024 through June 30, 2025, finishing the quarter at $65.11.

The early 2020’s witnessed extraordinary events in global financial markets, and crude oil offered no exception.

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Third, WTI Oil Futures Contracts, which typically move together (i.e., increase or decrease) about 99% of the time, often moved in opposite directions, with daily correlation dropping to (24%).

Fourth, futures curves, which can exhibit conditions known as “contango” and “backwardation” (as discussed above), moved into an extreme formation that some market experts referred to as “super contango.” This was a result of extreme bearishness in spot prices, which saw the front month WTI Oil Futures Contract detach from the rest of the futures curve and fall to an extreme position relative to later dated futures contracts.

futures curve and fall to an extreme position relative to later dated futures contracts.

USO, among other market participants, diversified its portfolio away from the front of the futures curve in favor of deferred contract months.

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Since early 2023, crude oil prices have traded mostly between approximately $65 to $80, with several prominent price reversals.

In the first quarter of 2025, U.S.

In the second quarter of 2025, U.S.

crude oil production averaged 13.4 mbd.

production has risen since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

production rose significantly over the last five years but is down year-to-date.

OPEC crude production declined from late 2022 through the third quarter of 2024 as the cartel supported prices with overall quotas and voluntary output cuts by certain countries, particularly Saudi Arabia.

OPEC output rose moderately during the six months ending March 31, 2025, but remained well below pre- and post-pandemic highs.

OPEC output rose during the six months ending June 30, 2025, but remained below pre- and post-pandemic highs.

OPEC fiercely supported prices with voluntary cuts and production quotas over the last several years.

The cartel announced plans to begin unwinding voluntary cuts and increasing quotas in 2024 but delayed and adjusted these plans several times.

The cartel announced plans to begin unwinding voluntary cuts and increasing quotas in 2024 and has begun to do so after delaying and adjusting these plans several times.

OPEC reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining oil market stability and retains the flexibility to change plans as market conditions warrant.

Nevertheless, the long-expected and repeatedly delayed reduction of quotas and voluntary cuts is finally underway.

While not a complete policy reversal, the “OPEC put” which kept a floor on prices over the last several years has likely moved lower at a time when demand could also decline, increasing the potential for downward pressure on prices.

Russia and OPEC have still not returned to pre-pandemic production levels, while the U.S.

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However, U.S.

drillers have shown restraint in recent years, and it is likely that ongoing growth in U.S.

production will continue along the same trajectory.

drillers have shown restraint in recent years, and production is down from 2024 records.

Technology, geology, and economics tend to be larger determinants of U.S.

production levels than political policy.

In April of 2025, two events significantly increased risks to global energy prices, particularly crude oil.

First, the Trump administration announced large and widespread tariffs on trading partners.

In April of 2025, the Trump administration announced large and widespread tariffs on trading partners.

While no tariffs on crude oil itself were announced, and the administration later paused tariff implementation and announced changing tariff levels on a country-by-country basis, the overall impact of the administration’s actions has materially increased the risk of a global economic slowdown or recession, which would reduce demand for crude oil.

Second, eight OPEC nations announced their intention to reduce their voluntary cuts by over 400,000 barrels per day, starting in May 2025, and to move forward with their plans to gradually cease all voluntary cuts which currently total 2.2 million barrels per day.

OPEC reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining oil market stability and retains the flexibility to change plans as market conditions warrant.

Nevertheless, the long-expected and repeatedly delayed reduction of quotas and voluntary cuts is finally underway.

As negotiations with trading partners continue, final trade policy remains elusive and crude oil prices may be volatile as a result.

The current geopolitical situation adds complexity to the supply-demand equation.

Tensions in the Middle East remain a flash point for risk to crude oil supply, which could raise prices.

Conversely, progress towards a potential resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war could ease supply disruptions, sanctions, and price volatility, which could lower prices.

In June of 2025, Israel and the United States attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities, raising speculation that Iran might attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz.

As approximately 20% of global petroleum consumption transits the Strait daily, this could have a significant effect on prices.

As it stands, Iran did not close the Strait, and prices fell back to the mid-$65 range after briefly topping $75.

Tensions in the Middle East and other regions remain a flash point for risk to crude oil supply, which could raise prices.

Conversely, any resolution of geopolitical conflicts could ease supply disruptions, sanctions, and price volatility, which could lower prices.

Crude Oil Price Movements in Comparison to Other Energy Commodities and Investment Categories.

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The correlation is scaled between 1 and -1, where 1 indicates that the two investment options move up or down in price or value together, known as “positive correlation,” and -1 indicates that they move in completely opposite directions, known as “negative correlation.” A correlation of 0 would mean that the movements of the two are neither positively nor negatively correlated, known as “non-correlation.” That is, the investment options sometimes move up and down together and other times move in opposite directions.

For the ten-year time period between March 31, 2015 and March 31, 2025, the table below compares the monthly movements of crude oil prices versus the monthly movements of the prices of several other energy commodities, such as natural gas, diesel-heating oil, and unleaded gasoline, as well as several major non-commodity investment asset classes, such as large cap U.S.

For the ten-year time period between June 30, 2015 and June 30, 2025, the table below compares the monthly movements of crude oil prices versus the monthly movements of the prices of several other energy commodities, such as natural gas, diesel-heating oil, and unleaded gasoline, as well as several major non-commodity investment asset classes, such as large cap U.S.

equities, U.S.

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Crude Oil - 10 Years

US Gov’t Bonds

Global Equities

Correlation Matrix 10 Years

Equities (S&P 600)

(BEUSG4 Index)

(FTSE World Index)

Large Cap US Equities (S&P 500)

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Bloomberg, NYMEX

The table below covers a more recent, but much shorter, range of dates than the above table.

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Crude Oil - 1 Year

US Gov’t Bonds

Global Equities

Correlation Matrix 1 Year

Equities (S&P 500)

(BEUSG4 Index)

(FTSE World Index)

Large Cap US Equities (S&P 500)

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Bloomberg, NYMEX

Investors are cautioned that the historical price relationships between crude oil and various other energy commodities, as well as other investment asset classes, as measured by correlation may not be reliable predictors of future price movements and correlation results.

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Income received from USO’s investments in money market funds and Treasuries is paid to USO.

During the three months ended March 31, 2025, USO’s expenses did not exceed the income USO earned and the cash earned from the sale of Creation Baskets and the redemption of Redemption Baskets.

During the three months ended March 31, 2025, USO did not use other assets to pay expenses.

During the six months ended June 30, 2025, USO’s expenses did not exceed the income USO earned and the cash earned from the sale of Creation Baskets and the redemption of Redemption Baskets.

During the six months ended June 30, 2025, USO did not use other assets to pay expenses.

To the extent income exceeded expenses, USO’s NAV will be positively impacted.

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In particular, USO generally posts margin and/or holds liquid assets that are approximately equal to the market value of its obligations to counterparties under the Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments it holds.

USCF has implemented procedures that include, but are not limited to, executing and clearing trades only with creditworthy parties and/or requiring the posting of collateral or margin by such parties for the benefit of USO to limit its credit exposure.

benefit of USO to limit its credit exposure.

An FCM, when acting on behalf of USO in accepting orders to purchase or sell Oil Futures Contracts on United States exchanges, is required by CFTC regulations to separately account for and segregate as belonging to USO, all assets of USO relating to domestic Oil Futures Contracts trading.

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Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk” in this quarterly report on Form 10-Q for a discussion of OTC swaps.

As of March 31, 2025, USO held cash deposits and short-term investments in the amount of $1,003,359,489 with the custodian and FCMs.

As of June 30, 2025, USO held cash deposits and short-term investments in the amount of $1,263,334,525 with the custodian and FCMs.

Some or all of these amounts held by a custodian or an FCM, as applicable, may be subject to loss should USO’s custodian or FCMs, as applicable, cease operations.

Off Balance Sheet Financing

As of March 31, 2025, USO had no loan guarantee, credit support or other off-balance sheet arrangements of any kind other than agreements entered into in the normal course of business, which may include indemnification provisions relating to certain risks that service providers undertake in performing services which are in the best interests of USO.

As of June 30, 2025, USO had no loan guarantee, credit support or other off-balance sheet arrangements of any kind other than agreements entered into in the normal course of business, which may include indemnification provisions relating to certain risks that service providers undertake in performing services which are in the best interests of USO.

While USO’s exposure under these indemnification provisions cannot be estimated, they are not expected to have a material impact on USO’s financial position.

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Either party may terminate these agreements earlier for certain reasons described in the agreements.

As of March 31, 2025, USO’s portfolio held 9,485 Oil Futures Contracts traded on the NYMEX.

As of March 31, 2025, USO did not hold any Oil Futures Contracts traded on the ICE Futures.

As of June 30, 2025, USO’s portfolio held 13,845 Oil Futures Contracts traded on the NYMEX.

As of June 30, 2025, USO did not hold any Oil Futures Contracts traded on the ICE Futures.

For a list of USO’s current holdings, please see USO’s website at www.uscfinvestments.com.

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Compared sentence by sentence after normalising whitespace, quotation marks, case and digits, so re-formatting and restated figures do not read as changed language. Wording changes appear as one removal and one addition. The current filing and the prior one are authoritative.

What changed 10-Q

Item 2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis