Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis
Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations.
The following discussion should be read in conjunction with the financial statements and the notes thereto of the United States 12 Month Natural Gas Fund, LP (“UNL”) included elsewhere in this annual report on Form 10-K.
Forward-Looking Information
This annual report on Form 10-K, including this “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations,” contains forward-looking statements regarding the plans and objectives of management for future operations. This information may involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause UNL’s actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by any forward-looking statements. UNL believes these factors include, but are not limited to, the following: changes in inflation in the United States; movements in U.S. and foreign currencies; market volatility in the crude oil markets and futures markets, in part attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic, related supply chain disruptions, ongoing disputes among oil-producing countries, uncertainties associated with the impact from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, including: its impact on the global and U.S. capital markets and the global and U.S. economy, the length and duration of the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States as well as worldwide and the magnitude of the economic impact of that outbreak, the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on USO’s business prospects, including its ability to achieve its objectives, and the effect of the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on our ability to continue to effectively manage our business. Forward-looking statements, which involve assumptions and describe UNL’s future plans, strategies and expectations, are generally identifiable by use of the words “may,” “will,” “should,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “estimate,” “believe,” “intend” or “project,” the negative of these words, other variations on these words or comparable terminology. These forward-looking statements are based on assumptions that may be incorrect, and UNL cannot assure investors that the projections included in these forward-looking statements
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will come to pass. UNL’s actual results could differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors.
UNL has based the forward-looking statements included in this annual report on Form 10-K on information available to it on the date of this annual report on Form 10-K, and UNL assumes no obligation to update any such forward-looking statements. Although UNL undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, investors are advised to consult any additional disclosures that UNL may make directly to them or through reports that UNL files in the future with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), including annual reports on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and current reports on Form 8-K.
Introduction
UNL, a Delaware limited partnership, is a commodity pool that issues shares that may be purchased and sold on the NYSE Arca. The investment objective of UNL is for the daily changes in percentage terms of its shares’ per share NAV to reflect the daily changes, in percentage terms, of the price of natural gas delivered at the Henry Hub, Louisiana, as measured by the daily changes in the average of the prices of 12 futures contracts for natural gas traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (the “NYMEX”), consisting of the near month contract to expire and the contracts for the following 11 months, for a total of 12 consecutive months’ contracts, except when the near month contract is within two weeks of expiration, in which case it will be measured by the futures contract that is the next month contract to expire and the contracts for the following 11 consecutive months (the “Benchmark Futures Contracts”), plus interest earned on UNL’s collateral holdings less UNL’s expenses. “Near month contract” means the next contract traded on the NYMEX due to expire. “Next month contract” means the first contract traded on the NYMEX due to expire after the near month contract. When calculating the daily movement of the average price of the 12 contracts, each contract month is equally weighted. UNL seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing so that the average daily percentage change in UNL’s NAV for any period of 30 successive valuation days will be within plus/minus ten percent (10%) of the average daily percentage change in the price of the Benchmark Futures Contracts over the same period.
UNL’s investment objective is not for its NAV or market price of shares to equal, in dollar terms, the spot price of natural gas or any particular futures contract based on natural gas nor is UNL’s investment objective for the percentage change in its NAV to reflect the percentage change of the price of any particular futures contract as measured over a time period greater than one day . The general partner of UNL, United States Commodity Funds LLC (“USCF”), believes that it is not practical to manage the portfolio to achieve such an investment goal when investing in Natural Gas Futures Contracts (as defined below) and Other Natural Gas-Related Investments (as defined below).
UNL invests primarily in natural gas futures contracts that are traded on the NYMEX, ICE Futures Exchange (“ICE Futures”) or other U.S. and foreign exchanges (collectively, “Natural Gas Futures Contracts”) and to a lesser extent, in order to comply with regulatory requirements or in view of market conditions, other natural gas-related investments such as cash-settled options on Natural Gas Futures Contracts, forward contracts for natural gas, cleared swap contracts and non-exchange traded over-the-counter (“OTC”) swaps that are based on the price of natural gas, crude oil and other petroleum-based fuels and indices based on the foregoing (collectively, “Other Natural Gas-Related Investments”). Market conditions that USCF currently anticipates could cause UNL to invest in Other Natural Gas-Related Investments include those allowing UNL to obtain greater liquidity or to execute transactions with more favorable pricing. For convenience and unless otherwise specified, Natural Gas Futures Contracts and Other Natural Gas-Related Investments collectively are referred to as “Natural Gas Interests” in this annual report on Form 10-K.
USCF believes that market arbitrage opportunities will cause daily changes in UNL’s share price on the NYSE Arca on a percentage basis to closely track daily changes in UNL’s per share NAV on a percentage basis. USCF further believes that daily changes in prices of the Benchmark Futures Contracts have historically closely tracked the daily changes in spot price of natural gas. USCF believes that the net effect of these relationships will be that the daily changes in the price of UNL’s shares on the NYSE Arca on a percentage basis will closely track the daily changes in the spot price of a MMBtu of natural gas on a percentage basis, plus interest earned on UNL’s collateral holdings, less UNL’s expenses.
UNL seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing so that the average daily percentage change in UNL’s NAV for any period of 30 successive valuation days will be within plus/minus ten percent (10%) of the average daily percentage change in the price of the Benchmark Futures Contracts over the same period.
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Regulatory Disclosure
Accountability Levels, Position Limits and Price Fluctuation Limits . Designated contract markets (“DCMs”), such as the NYMEX and ICE Futures, have established accountability levels and position limits on the maximum net long or net short futures contracts in commodity interests that any person or group of persons under common trading control (other than as a hedge, which an investment by UNL is not) may hold, own or control. These levels and position limits apply to the futures contracts that UNL invests in to meet its investment objective. In addition to accountability levels and position limits, the NYMEX and ICE Futures also set daily price fluctuation limits on futures contracts. The daily price fluctuation limit establishes the maximum amount that the price of a futures contract may vary either up or down from the previous day’s settlement price. Once the daily price fluctuation limit has been reached in a particular futures contract, no trades may be made at a price beyond that limit.
The accountability levels for the Benchmark Futures Contracts and other Natural Gas Futures Contracts traded on U.S.-based futures exchanges such as the NYMEX are not a fixed ceiling, but rather a threshold above which the NYMEX may exercise greater scrutiny and control over an investor’s positions. The current accountability level for investments for any one-month in the Benchmark Futures Contracts is 6,000 net contracts. In addition, the NYMEX imposes an accountability levels for all months of 12,000 net futures contracts for investments in futures contracts for natural gas. In addition, the ICE Futures maintains the same accountability levels, position limits and monitoring authority for its natural gas contracts as the NYMEX. If UNL and the Related Public Funds exceed these accountability levels for investments in the futures contract for natural gas, the NYMEX and ICE Futures will monitor UNL’s and the Related Public Funds’ exposure and may ask for further information on their activities, including the total size of all positions, investment and trading strategy, and the extent of liquidity resources of UNL and the Related Public Funds. If deemed necessary by the NYMEX and/or ICE Futures, UNL and the Related Public Funds could be ordered to reduce their aggregate net futures contracts back to the accountability level. As of December 31, 2021, UNL held - Natural Gas Futures NG contracts traded on the NYMEX and did not hold any ICE Natural Gas Futures contracts. For the year ended December 31, 2021, UNL did not exceed accountability levels imposed by the NYMEX and ICE Futures, however, the aggregated total of certain of the Related Public Funds did exceed the accountability levels. No action was taken by NYMEX and UNL did not reduce the number of Natural Gas Futures Contracts held as a result.
Position limits differ from accountability levels in that they represent fixed limits on the maximum number of futures contracts that any person may hold and cannot allow such limits to be exceeded without express CFTC authority to do so. In addition to accountability levels and position limits that may apply at any time, the NYMEX and ICE Futures impose position limits on contracts held in the last few days of trading in the near month contract to expire. It is unlikely that UNL will run up against such position limits because UNL’s investment strategy is to close out its positions and “roll” from the near month contract to expire and the eleven following months to the next month contract to expire and the eleven following months during one day each month. For the year ended December 31, 2021, UNL did not exceed any position limits imposed by the NYMEX and the ICE Futures.
The regulation of commodity interest trading in the United States and other countries is an evolving area of the law. The various statements made in this summary are subject to modification by legislative action and changes in the rules and regulations of the SEC, Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”), CFTC, NFA, the futures exchanges, clearing organizations and other regulatory bodies. Pending final resolution of all applicable regulatory requirements, some examples of how new rules and regulations could impact UNL are discussed in “Item 1. Business” and “Item 1A. Risk Factors” in this annual report on Form 10-K.
Futures Contracts and Position Limits
On October 15, 2020, the CFTC approved the Position Limits Rule. The Position Limits Rule establishes federal position limits for 25 core referenced futures contracts (comprised of agricultural, energy and metals futures contracts), futures and options linked to the core referenced futures contracts, and swaps that are economically equivalent to the core referenced futures contracts.
The Benchmark Futures Contracts will be subject to position limits under the Position Limits Rule, and UNL’s trading does not qualify for an exemption therefrom. Accordingly, the Position Limits Rule could negatively impact the ability of UNL to meet its investment objective by inhibiting USCF’s ability to effectively invest the proceeds from sales of Creation Baskets of UNL in particular amounts and types of its permitted investments.
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OTC Swaps
In October 2015, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the FDIC, the Farm Credit Administration, and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (each an “Agency” and, collectively, the “Agencies”) jointly adopted final rules to establish minimum margin and capital requirements for registered swap dealers, major swap participants, security-based swap dealers, and major security-based swap participants (“Swap Entities”) that are subject to the jurisdiction of one of the Agencies (such entities, “Covered Swap Entities”, and the joint final rules, the “Final Margin Rules”).
The Final Margin Rules will subject non-cleared swaps and non-cleared security-based swaps between Covered Swap Entities and Swap Entities, and between Covered Swap Entities and financial end users that have material swaps exposure (i.e., an average daily aggregate notional of $8 billion or more in non-cleared swaps calculated in accordance with the Final Margin Rules), to a mandatory two-way minimum initial margin requirement. The minimum amount of the initial margin required to be posted or collected would be either the amount calculated by the Covered Swap Entity using a standardized schedule set forth as an appendix to the Final Margin Rules, which provides the gross initial margin (as a percentage of total notional exposure) for certain asset classes, or an internal margin model of the Covered Swap Entity conforming to the requirements of the Final Margin Rules that is approved by the Agency having jurisdiction over the particular Covered Swap Entity. The Final Margin Rules specify the types of collateral that may be posted or collected as initial margin for non-cleared swaps and non-cleared security-based swaps with financial end users (generally cash, certain government, government-sponsored enterprise securities, certain liquid debt, certain equity securities, certain eligible publicly traded debt, and gold); and sets forth haircuts for certain collateral asset classes.
The Final Margin Rules require minimum variation margin to be exchanged daily for non-cleared swaps and non-cleared security- based swaps between Covered Swap Entities and Swap Entities and between Covered Swap Entities and all financial end-users (without regard to the swaps exposure of the particular financial end-user). The minimum variation margin amount is the daily mark- to-market change in the value of the swap to the Covered Swap Entity, taking into account variation margin previously posted or collected. For non-cleared swaps and security-based swaps between Covered Swap Entities and financial end-users, variation margin may be posted or collected in cash or non-cash collateral that is considered eligible for initial margin purposes. Variation margin is not subject to segregation with an independent, third-party custodian, and may, if permitted by contract, be rehypothecated.
The initial margin requirements of the Final Margin Rules are being phased in over time, and the variation margin requirements of the Final Margin Rules are currently in effect. UNL is not a Covered Swap Entity under the Final Margin Rules, but it is a financial end-user. Accordingly, UNL is currently subject to the variation margin requirements of the Final Margin Rules. However, UNL does not have material swaps exposure and, accordingly, UNL will not be subject to the initial margin requirements of the Final Margin Rules.
The Dodd-Frank Act required the CFTC and the SEC to adopt their own margin rules to apply to a limited number of registered swap dealers, security-based swap dealers, major swap participants, and major security-based swap participants that are not subject to the jurisdiction of one of the Agencies. On December 16, 2015 the CFTC finalized its margin rules, which are substantially the same as the Final Margin Rules and have the same implementation timeline. The SEC adopted margin rules for security-based swap dealers and major security-based swap participants on June 21, 2019. The SEC’s margin rules are generally aligned with the Final Margin Rules and the CFTC’s margin rules, but they differ in a few key respects relating to timing for compliance and the manner in which initial margin must be segregated. UNL does not currently engage in security-based swap transactions and, therefore, the SEC’s margin rules are not expected to apply to UNL.
Mandatory Trading and Clearing of Swaps
CFTC regulations require that certain swap transactions be executed on organized exchanges or “swap execution facilities” and cleared through regulated clearing organizations (“derivative clearing organizations” (“DCOs”)), if the CFTC mandates the central clearing of a particular class of swap and such swap is “made available to trade” on a swap execution facility. Currently, swap dealers, major swap participants, commodity pools, certain private funds and entities predominantly engaged in activities that are financial in nature are required to execute on a swap execution facility, and clear, certain interest rate swaps and index-based credit default swaps. As a result, if UNL enters into an interest rate or index-based credit default swap that is subject to these requirements, such swap will be required to be executed on a swap execution facility and centrally cleared. Mandatory clearing and “made available to trade” determinations with respect to additional types of swaps may be issued in the future, and, when finalized, could require UNL to electronically execute and centrally clear certain OTC instruments presently entered into and settled on a bi-lateral basis. If a swap is required to be cleared, initial
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and variation margin requirements are set by the relevant clearing organization, subject to certain regulatory requirements and guidelines. Additional margin may be required and held by UNL’s FCM.
Other Requirements for Swaps
In addition to the margin requirements described above, swaps that are not required to be cleared and executed on a SEF but that are executed bilaterally are also subject to various requirements pursuant to CFTC regulations, including, among other things, reporting and recordkeeping requirements and, depending on the status of the counterparties, trading documentation requirements and dispute resolution requirements.
Derivatives Regulations in Non-U.S. Jurisdictions
In addition to U.S. laws and regulations, UNL may be subject to non-U.S. derivatives laws and regulations if it engages in futures and/or swap transactions with non-U.S. persons. For example, UNL may be impacted by European laws and regulations to the extent that it engages in futures transactions on European exchanges or derivatives transactions with European entities. Other jurisdictions impose requirements applicable to futures and derivatives that are similar to those imposed by the U.S., including position limits, margin, clearing and trade execution requirements.
The CFTC is generally prohibited by statute from regulating trading on non-U.S. futures exchanges and markets. The CFTC, however, has adopted regulations relating to the marketing of non-U.S. futures contracts in the United States. These regulations permit certain contracts on non-U.S. exchanges to be offered and sold in the United States.
Money Market Funds
The SEC adopted amendments to Rule 2a-7 under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (“1940 Act”) which became effective in 2016, to reform money market funds (“MMFs”). While the rule applies only to MMFs, it may indirectly affect institutional investors such as UNL. A portion of UNL’s assets that are not used for margin or collateral in the Futures Contracts currently are invested in government MMFs. UNL does not hold any non-government MMFs and does not anticipate investing in any non- government MMFs. However, if UNL invests in other types of MMFs besides government MMFs in the future, UNL could be negatively impacted by investing in an MMF that does not maintain a stable $1.00 NAV or that has the potential to impose redemption fees and gates (temporary suspension of redemptions).
Although such government MMFs seek to preserve the value of an investment at $1.00 per share, there is no guarantee that they will be able to do so and UNL may lose money by investing in a government MMF. An investment in a government MMF is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (the "FDIC") or any other government agency. The share price of a government MMF can fall below the $1.00 share price. UNL cannot rely on or expect a government MMF’s adviser or its affiliates to enter into support agreements or take other actions to maintain the government MMF’s $1.00 share price. The credit quality of a government MMF’s holdings can change rapidly in certain markets, and the default of a single holding could have an adverse impact on the government MMF’s share price. Due to fluctuations in interest rates, the market value of securities held by a government MMF may vary. A government MMF’s share price can also be negatively affected during periods of high redemption pressures and/or illiquid markets.
Price Movements
Natural gas futures prices were volatile during the year ended December 31, 2021. The average price of the Benchmark Futures Contracts started the year at $2.695 per million British thermal shares (“MMBtu”). The high of the year was on October 5, 2021 when the price of the Benchmark Futures Contracts reached $5.017 per MMBtu. The low of the year was on March 18, 2021 when the price dropped to $2.688 per MMBtu. The year ended with the Benchmark Futures Contracts at $3.698 per MMBtu, an increase of approximately 37.22% over the year. UNL’s per share NAV began the year at $7.74 and ended the year at $11.65 on December 31, 2021, an increase of approximately 50.52% over the year. The Benchmark Futures Contracts prices listed above began with the February 2021 to January 2022 contracts and ended with the February 2022 to January 2023 contracts. The increase of approximately 37.22% on the Benchmark Futures Contracts listed above is a hypothetical return only and could not actually be achieved by an investor holding Futures Contracts. An investment in Futures Contracts would need to be rolled forward during the time period described in order to simulate such a result. Furthermore, the change in the nominal price of these differing Futures Contracts, measured from the start of the year to the end of the
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year, does not represent the actual benchmark results that UNL seeks to track, which are more fully described below in the section titled “ Tracking UNL’s Benchmark .”
During the year ended December 31, 2021, the natural gas futures market experienced states of both contango and backwardation. When the market is in a state of contango, the near month natural gas futures contract is lower than the price of the next month natural gas futures contract, or contracts further away from expiration. During periods of backwardation the near month natural gas futures contract is higher than the price of the next month natural gas futures contract, or contracts further away from expiration. For a discussion of the impact of backwardation and contango on total returns, see “Term Structure of Natural Gas Futures Prices and the Impact on Total Returns” below.
Valuation of Futures Contracts and the Computation of the Per Share NAV
The per share NAV of UNL’s shares is calculated once each NYSE Arca trading day. The per share NAV for a particular trading day is released after 4:00 p.m. New York time. Trading during the core trading session on the NYSE Arca typically closes at 4:00 p.m. New York time. The Administrator uses the NYMEX closing price (determined at the earlier of the close of the NYMEX or 2:30 p.m. New York time) for the contracts held on the NYMEX, but calculates or determines the value of all other UNL investments, including cleared swaps, or other futures contracts, as of the earlier of the close of the NYSE Arca or 4:00 p.m. New York time.
Results of Operations and the Natural Gas Market
Results of Operations. On November 18, 2009, UNL listed its shares on the NYSE Arca under the ticker symbol “UNL.” On that day, UNL established its initial offering price at $50.00 per share and issued 200,000 shares to the initial Authorized Participant, Merrill Lynch Professional Clearing Corp., in exchange for $10,000,000 in cash.
As of December 31, 2021, UNL had issued 6,900,000 shares, 1,400,000 of which were outstanding. As of December 31, 2021, there were 23,100,000 shares registered but not yet issued. UNL has registered 30,000,000 shares since inception.
More shares may have been issued by UNL than are outstanding due to the redemption of shares. Unlike funds that are registered under the 1940 Act, shares that have been redeemed by UNL cannot be resold by UNL. As a result, UNL contemplates that additional offerings of its shares will be registered with the SEC in the future in anticipation of additional issuances and redemptions.
As of December 31, 2021, UNL had the following Authorized Participants: Citadel Securities LLC, Citigroup Global Markets, Inc., Credit Suisse Securities USA LLC, JP Morgan Securities Inc., Merrill Lynch Professional Clearing Corp., Morgan Stanley & Company Inc., RBC Capital Markets LLC, SG Americas Securities LLC and Virtu Americas LLC.
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For the Year Ended December 31, 2021 Compared to the Year Ended December 31, 2020
Year ended
Year ended
December 31,
December 31,
2021
2020
Per share net asset value, end of year
$
11.65
$
7.74
Average daily total net assets
$
11,436,019
$
4,790,202
Dividend and interest income earned on Treasuries, cash and/or cash equivalents
$
3,479
$
21,225
Annualized yield based on average daily total net assets
0.03
%
0.44
%
Management fee
$
85,770
$
35,924
Total fees and other expenses excluding management fees
$
145,903
$
67,715
Total amount of the expense waiver
$
128,748
$
60,535
Expenses before the allowance of the expense waiver
$
231,673
$
103,639
Expenses after the allowance of the expense waiver
$
102,925
$
43,104
Total commissions accrued to brokers
$
3,199
$
1,633
Total commissions as annualized percentage of average total net assets
0.03
%
0.03
%
Commissions accrued as a result of rebalancing
$
2,250
$
1,153
Percentage of commissions accrued as a result of rebalancing
70.33
%
70.61
%
Commissions accrued as a result of creation and redemption activity
$
949
$
480
Percentage of commissions accrued as a result of creation and redemption activity
29.67
%
29.39
%
[Portfolio Expenses. UNL’s expenses consist of investment management fees, brokerage fees and commissions, certain offering costs, licensing fees, registration fees, the fees and expenses of the independent directors of USCF and expenses relating to tax accounting and reporting requirements. The management fee that UNL pays to USCF is calculated as a percentage of the total net assets of UNL. The fee is accrued daily and paid monthly.
The increase in the per share NAV for the year ended December 31, 2021, compared to the year ended December 31, 2020, was due primarily to higher prices for natural gas and the related increase in the value of the Natural Gas Futures Contracts in which UNL held and traded.
Average interest rates earned on short-term investments held by UNL, including cash, cash equivalents and Treasuries, were lower during the year ended December 31, 2021, compared to the year ended December 31, 2020. As a result, the amount of income earned by UNL as a percentage of average daily total net assets was lower during the year ended December 31, 2021, compared to the year ended December 31, 2020. To the degree that the aggregate yield is lower, the net expense ratio, inclusive of income, will be higher.
The increase in total fees and other expenses excluding management fees for the year ended December 31, 2021, compared to the year ended December 31, 2020 was due primarily to a increase in reporting costs and professional fees.
The increase in total commissions accrued to brokers for the year ended December 31, 2021, compared to the year ended December 31, 2020, was due primarily to a higher number of Natural Gas Futures Contracts being held and traded.
Tracking UNL’s Benchmark
USCF seeks to manage UNL’s portfolio such that changes in its average daily per share NAV, on a percentage basis, closely track the daily changes in the average price of the Benchmark Futures Contracts, also on a percentage basis. Specifically, USCF seeks to manage the portfolio such that over any rolling period of 30-valuation days, the average daily change in UNL’s per share NAV is within a range of 90% to 110% (0.9 to 1.1) of the average daily change in the prices of the Benchmark Futures Contracts. As an example, if the average daily movement of the average of the prices of the Benchmark Futures Contracts for a particular 30-valuation day time period was 0.50% per day, USCF would attempt to manage the portfolio such that the average daily movement of the per share NAV during that same time period fell between 0.45% and 0.55% (i.e., between 0.9 and 1.1 of the benchmark’s results). UNL’s portfolio management goals do not include trying to make the nominal price of UNL’s per share NAV equal to the average of the nominal prices of the current Benchmark Futures Contracts or the spot price for natural gas. USCF believes that it is not practical to manage the portfolio to achieve such an investment goal when investing in Futures Contracts and Other Natural Gas-Related Investments.
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For the 30-valuation days ended December 31, 2021, the average daily change in the average of the prices of the Benchmark Futures Contracts was (0.398)%, while the average daily change in the per share NAV of UNL over the same time period was (0.400)%. The average daily difference was (0.002)% (or (0.2) basis points, where 1 basis point equals 1/100 of 1%), meaning that over this time period UNL’s NAV performed was within the plus or minus 10% range established as its benchmark tracking goal.
Since the commencement of the offering of UNL’s shares to the public on November 18, 2009 to December 31, 2021, the average daily change in the average price of the Benchmark Futures Contracts was (0.032)%, while the average daily change in the per share NAV of UNL over the same time period was (0.033)%. The average daily difference was (0.001)% (or (0.1) basis points, where 1 basis point equals 1/100 of 1%), meaning that over this time period UNL’s NAV performed within the plus or minus 10% range established as its benchmark tracking goal.
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The following two graphs demonstrate the correlation between the changes in UNL’s NAV and the changes in the Benchmark Futures Contracts. The first graph exhibits the daily changes in the last 30 valuation days ended December 31, 2021. The second graph measures monthly changes since December 31, 2016 through December 31, 2021.
*PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
*PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
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An alternative tracking measurement of the return performance of UNL versus the return of its Benchmark Futures Contracts can be calculated by comparing the actual return of UNL, measured by changes in its per share NAV, versus the expected changes in its per share NAV under the assumption that UNL’s returns had been exactly the same as the daily changes in its Benchmark Futures Contracts.
For the year ended December 31, 2021, the actual total return of UNL as measured by changes in its per share NAV was 50.52%. This is based on an initial per share NAV of $7.74 as of December 31, 2020 and an ending per share NAV as of December 31, 2021 of $11.65. During this time period, UNL made no distributions to its shareholders. However, if UNL’s daily changes in its per share NAV had instead exactly tracked the changes in the daily total return of the Benchmark Futures Contracts, UNL would have had an estimated per share NAV of $11.65 as of December 31, 2021, for a total return over the relevant time period of 50.52%. The difference between the actual per share NAV total return of UNL of 50.52% and the expected total return based on the Benchmark Futures Contract of 50.52% was a difference over the time period of 0.00%, which is to say that UNL’s actual total return matched its benchmark by that percentage. UNL incurs expenses primarily composed of the management fee, brokerage commissions for the buying and selling of futures contracts, and other expenses. The impact of these expenses, offset by interest and dividend income, and net of positive or negative execution, tends to cause daily changes in the per share NAV of UNL to track slightly lower or higher than daily changes in the price of the Benchmark Futures Contracts.
By comparison, for the year ended December 31, 2020, the actual total return of UNL as measured by changes in its per share NAV was (8.19)%. This was based on an initial per share NAV of $8.43 as of December 31, 2019 and an ending per share NAV as of December 31, 2020 of $7.74. During this time period, UNL made no distributions to its shareholders. However, if UNL’s daily changes in its per share NAV had instead exactly tracked the changes in the daily total return of the Benchmark Futures Contracts, UNL would have had an estimated per share NAV of $7.75 as of December 31, 2020, for a total return over the relevant time period of (8.07)%. The difference between the actual per share NAV total return of UNL of (8.19)% and the expected total return based on the Benchmark Futures Contracts of (8.07)% was an error over the time period of (0.12)%, which is to say that UNL’s actual total return underperformed its benchmark by that percentage. UNL incurred expenses primarily composed of the management fee, brokerage commissions for the buying and selling of futures contracts, and other expenses. The impact of these expenses, offset by interest and dividend income, and net of positive or negative execution, tended to cause daily changes in the per share NAV of UNL to track slightly lower or higher than daily changes in the price of the Benchmark Futures Contracts.
There are currently three factors that have impacted or are most likely to impact UNL’s ability to accurately track Benchmark Futures Contracts.
First, UNL may buy or sell its holdings in the then current Benchmark Futures Contracts at a price other than the closing settlement price of that contract on the day during which UNL executes the trade. In that case, UNL may pay a price that is higher, or lower, than that of the Benchmark Futures Contracts, which could cause the changes in the daily per share NAV of UNL to either be too high or too low relative to the daily changes in the average price of the Benchmark Futures Contracts. During the year ended December 31, 2021, USCF attempted to minimize the effect of these transactions by seeking to execute its purchase or sale of the Benchmark Futures Contracts at, or as close as possible to, the end of the day settlement price. However, it may not always be possible for UNL to obtain the closing settlement price and there is no assurance that failure to obtain the closing settlement price in the future will not adversely impact UNL’s attempt to track the Benchmark Futures Contracts.
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Second, UNL incurs expenses primarily composed of the management fee, brokerage commissions for the buying and selling of futures contracts, and other expenses. The impact of these expenses tends to cause daily changes in the per share NAV of UNL to track slightly lower than daily changes in the price of the Benchmark Futures Contracts. At the same time, UNL earns dividend and interest income on its cash, cash equivalents and Treasuries. UNL is not required to distribute any portion of its income to its shareholders and did not make any distributions to shareholders during the year ended December 31, 2021. Interest payments, and any other income, were retained within the portfolio and added to UNL’s NAV. When this income exceeds the level of UNL’s expenses for its management fee, brokerage commissions and other expenses (including ongoing registration fees, licensing fees and the fees and expenses of the independent directors of USCF), UNL will realize a net yield that will tend to cause daily changes in the per share NAV of UNL to track slightly higher than daily changes in the average of the prices of the Benchmark Futures Contracts. If short-term interest rates rise above these current levels, the level of deviation created by the yield would increase. Conversely, if short-term interest rates were to decline, the amount of error created by the yield would decrease. When short-term yields drop to a level lower than the combined expenses of the management fee and the brokerage commissions, then the tracking error becomes a negative number and would tend to cause the daily returns of the per share NAV to underperform the daily returns of the Benchmark Futures Contracts. USCF anticipates that interest rates may continue to rise over the from future near historical lows. It is anticipated that fees and expenses paid by UNL may continue to be higher than interest earned by UNL. As such, USCF anticipates that UNL could possibly underperform its benchmark so long as interest earned is lower than the fees and expenses paid by UNL.
Third, UNL may hold Other Natural Gas-Related Investments in its portfolio that may fail to closely track the Benchmark Futures Contracts total return movements. In that case, the error in tracking the Benchmark Futures Contracts could result in daily changes in the per share NAV of UNL that are either too high, or too low, relative to the daily changes in the average price of the Benchmark Futures Contracts. During the year ended December 31, 2021, UNL did not hold any Other Natural Gas-Related Investments. If UNL increases in size, and due to its obligations to comply with regulatory limits, UNL may invest in Other Natural Gas-Related Investments which may have the effect of increasing transaction related expenses and may result in increased tracking error.
Term Structure of Natural Gas Futures Prices and the Impact on Total Returns. Several factors determine the total return from investing in futures contracts. One factor arises from “rolling” futures contracts that will expire at the end of the current month (the “near” or “front” month contract) forward each month prior to expiration. For a strategy that entails holding the near month contract, the price relationship between that futures contract and the next month futures contract will impact returns. For example, if the price of the near month futures contract is higher than the next futures month contract (a situation referred to as “backwardation”), then absent any other change, the price of a next month futures contract tends to rise in value as it becomes the near month futures contract and approaches expiration. Conversely, if the price of a near month futures contract is lower than the next month futures contract (a situation referred to as “contango”), then absent any other change, the price of a next month futures contract tends to decline in value as it becomes the near month futures contract and approaches expiration.
As an example, assume that the price of natural gas for immediate delivery, is $3 per MMBtu, and the value of a position in the near month futures contract is also $3. Over time, the price of natural gas will fluctuate based on a number of market factors, including demand for natural gas relative to supply. The value of the near month futures contract will likewise fluctuate in reaction to a number of market factors. If an investor seeks to maintain a position in a near month futures contract and not take delivery of physical MMBtu of natural gas, the investor must sell the current near month futures contract as it approaches expiration and invest in the next month futures contract. In order to continue holding a position in the current near month futures contract, this “roll” forward of the futures contract must be executed every month.
Contango and backwardation are natural market forces that have impacted the total return on an investment in UNL’s shares during the past year relative to a hypothetical direct investment in natural gas. In the future, it is likely that the relationship between the market price of UNL’s shares and changes in the spot prices of natural gas will continue to be impacted by contango and backwardation. It is important to note that this comparison ignores the potential costs associated with physically owning and storing natural gas, which could be substantial.
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If the futures market is in backwardation, e.g., when the price of the near month futures contract is higher than the price of the next month futures contract, the investor would buy a next month futures contract for a lower price than the current near month futures contract. Assuming the price of the next month futures contract was $2.94 per MMBtu, or 2% cheaper than the $3 near month futures contract, then, hypothetically, and assuming no other changes (e.g., to either prevailing natural gas prices or the price relationship between the spot price, the near month contract and the next month contract, and, ignoring the impact of commission costs and the income earned on cash and/or cash equivalents), the value of the $2.94 next month futures contract would rise to $3 as it approaches expiration. In this example, the value of an investment in the next month futures contract would tend to outperform the spot price of natural gas. As a result, it would be possible for the new near month futures contract to rise 12% while the spot price of natural gas may have risen a lower amount, e.g., only 10%. Similarly, the spot price of natural gas could have fallen 10% while the value of an investment in the futures contract might have fallen another amount, e.g., only 8%. Over time, if backwardation remained constant, this difference between the spot price and the futures contract price would continue to increase.
If the futures market is in contango, an investor would be buying a next month futures contract for a higher price than the current near month futures contract. Again, assuming the near month futures contract is $3 per MMBtu, the price of the next month futures contract might be $3.06 per MMBtu, or 2% more expensive than the front month futures contract. Hypothetically, and assuming no other changes, the value of the $3.06 next month futures contract would fall to $3 as it approaches expiration. In this example, the value of an investment in the second month would tend to underperform the spot price of natural gas. As a result, it would be possible for the new near month futures contract to rise only 10% while the spot price of natural gas may have risen a higher amount, e.g., 12%. Similarly, the spot price of natural gas could have fallen 10% while the value of an investment in the second month futures contract might have fallen another amount, e.g., 12%. Over time, if contango remained constant, this difference between the spot price and the futures contract price would continue to increase.
The chart below compares the daily price of the near month natural gas futures contract to the price of 13 th month natural gas futures contract (i.e., a contract one year forward) over the last 10 years. When the price of the near month futures contract is higher than the price of the 13 th month futures contract, the market would be described as being in backwardation. When the price of the near month futures contract is lower than the 13 th month futures contract, the market would be described as being in contango. Although the price of the near month futures contract and the price of the 13 th month futures contract tend to move together, it can be seen that at times the near month futures contract prices are higher than the 13 th month futures contract prices (backwardation) and, at other times, the near month futures contract prices are lower than the 13 th month futures contract prices (contango).
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*PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
An alternative way to view the same data is to subtract the dollar price of the 13 th month natural gas futures contract from the dollar price of the near month natural gas futures contract, as shown in the chart below. When the difference is positive, the market is in backwardation. When the difference is negative, the market is in contango. The natural gas market spent time in both backwardation and contango during the last ten years. The chart below shows the results from subtracting the average dollar price of the near 12-month contracts from the near month price for the 10-year period between December 31, 2011 and December 31, 2021. Investors will note that the natural gas market spent time in both backwardation and contango.
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*PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
An investment in a portfolio that owned only the near month natural gas futures contract would likely produce a different result than an investment in a portfolio that owned an equal number of each of the near 12 months’ of natural gas futures contracts. Generally speaking, when the natural gas futures market is in backwardation, a portfolio of only the near month natural gas futures contract may tend to have a higher total return than a portfolio of 12 months’ of the natural gas futures contract. Conversely, if the natural gas futures market was in contango, the portfolio containing only 12 months’ of natural gas futures contracts may tend to outperform the portfolio holding only the near month natural gas futures contract.
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Historically, the natural gas futures markets have experienced periods of contango and backwardation. Because natural gas demand is seasonal, it is possible for the price of natural gas futures contracts for delivery within one or two months to rapidly move from backwardation into contango and back again within the relatively short period of time of less than one year. However, the natural gas market has primarily been in a state of contango since late 2014.
Periods of contango or backwardation do not materially impact UNL’s investment objective of having the daily percentage changes in its per share NAV track the daily percentage changes in the price of the Benchmark Futures Contract since the impact of backwardation and contango tend to equally impact the daily percentage changes in price of both UNL’s shares and the Benchmark Futures Contract. It is impossible to predict with any degree of certainty whether backwardation or contango will occur in the future. It is likely that both conditions will occur during different periods and, because of the seasonal nature of natural gas demand, both may occur within a single year’s time.
Natural Gas Market . During the year ended December 31, 2021, the average price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts traded in a range between $2.688 and $5.017. The average price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts increased 37.22% from December 31, 2020 through December 31, 2021, finishing the year at $3.698. The number of rigs dedicated to natural gas production rose from 83 at the start of the year to 106 by the end of 2021. Natural Gas stored in the United States stood at 3,195 billion cubic feet as of December 31, 2021, about 4% lower than the same time last year. Both domestic demand and U.S. exports of natural gas have increased over the last five years and rising demand relative to gas in storage led to the best returns for the commodity in almost a decade. The robust ability of the U.S. energy industry to meet demand may constrain natural gas prices except during periods of extreme temperatures.
Mitigation measures taken in the United States to slow the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a decline in natural gas consumption in the industrial sector and by other commercial users during the early stage of the pandemic. Simultaneously, natural gas production fell as a result of reduced drilling activity and shut-ins of crude oil wells where natural gas is a byproduct.
While natural gas prices declined steadily during the first half of 2020, prices were not as impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic as other energy commodities. Lower prices were at least in part due to the ongoing surplus of natural gas in storage and lower demand resulting from warm weather in the United States. Additionally, crude oil and petroleum products are more sensitive to changes in commuter and air miles as well as manufacturing and industrial production, all of which dropped dramatically during first half of 2020.
The 30-day annualized volatility of natural gas prices rose notably from late February to late May of 2020 and averaged about 69% during the second quarter, considerably higher than five-year average volatility of approximately 44%. However, natural gas price volatility during the rest of 2020 was similar to prior years. Natural gas price volatility in 2020 never reached the extreme level that occurred during the 2018-2019 winter. Likewise, natural gas price volatility remained well below the levels of volatility seen in crude oil markets. While some uncertainty in natural gas prices was likely a result of COVID-19 mitigation efforts, the effects from the COVID-19 pandemic were more muted as compared to the impact on crude oil markets.
The ongoing impact of COVID-19 in the United States could continue to add some pressure to natural gas demand at times. However, supply and demand of natural gas continue to exhibit normal seasonal patterns, whereby both production and end-user demand increase in autumn and winter months and decline in spring and summer months. Peak demand and peak production over the last two pandemic winters fell somewhat below their five year averages, though not dramatically.
Natural Gas Price Movements in Comparison to Other Energy Commodities and Investment Categories. USCF believes that investors frequently measure the degree to which prices or total returns of one investment or asset class move up or down in value in concert with another investment or asset class. Statistically, such a measure is usually done by measuring the correlation of the price movements of the two different investments or asset classes over some period of time. The correlation is scaled between 1 and -1, where 1 indicates that the two investment options move up or down in price or value together, known as “positive correlation,” and -1 indicates that they move in completely opposite directions, known as “negative correlation.” A correlation of 0 would mean that the movements of the two are neither positively nor negatively correlated, known as “non-correlation.” That is, the investment options sometimes move up and down together and other times move in opposite directions.
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For the ten-year time period between December 31, 2011 and December 31, 2021, the table below compares the monthly movements of natural gas prices versus the monthly movements of the prices of several other energy commodities, such as crude oil, diesel-heating oil, and unleaded gasoline, as well as several major non-commodity investment asset classes, such as large cap U.S. equities, U.S. government bonds and global equities. It can be seen that over this particular time period, the movement of natural gas on a monthly basis was neither strongly correlated nor inversely correlated with the movements of large cap U.S. equities, U.S. Government bonds, global equities, crude oil, diesel-heating oil, or unleaded gasoline.
*PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
Natural Gas - 10 Years
Large Cap US Equities (S&P
US Gov’t Bonds (BEUSG4
Global Equities (FTSE World
Unleaded
Natural
Correlation Matrix 10 Years
500)
Index)
Index)
Crude Oil
Heating Oil
Gasoline
Gas
Large Cap US Equities (S&P 500)
1.000
0.895
0.995
0.669
0.717
0.716
0.584
US Gov’t Bonds (BEUSG4 Index)
1.000
0.893
0.521
0.616
0.540
0.585
Global Equities (FTSE World Index)
1.000
0.686
0.737
0.729
0.577
Crude Oil
1.000
0.867
0.837
0.350
Heating Oil
1.000
0.807
0.419
Unleaded Gasoline
1.000
0.403
Natural Gas
1.000
Source: Bloomberg, NYMEX
The table below covers a more recent, but much shorter, range of dates than the above table. Over the one year period ended December 31, 2021, the movement of natural gas was strongly correlated with diesel-heating oil, U.S. government bonds oil, large cap U.S. equities, global equities crude oil, and unleaded gasoline.
*PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
Natural Gas - 1 Year
Large Cap US Equities (S&P
US Gov’t Bonds (BEUSG4
Global Equities (FTSE World
Unleaded
Natural
Correlation Matrix 1 Year
500)
Index)
Index)
Crude Oil
Heating Oil
Gasoline
Gas
Large Cap US Equities (S&P 500)
1.000
0.993
1.000
0.944
0.956
0.959
0.868
US Gov’t Bonds (BEUSG4 Index)
1.000
0.994
0.937
0.953
0.945
0.891
Global Equities (FTSE World Index)
1.000
0.949
0.962
0.963
0.873
Crude Oil
1.000
0.995
0.988
0.887
Heating Oil
1.000
0.989
0.896
Unleaded Gasoline
1.000
0.857
Natural Gas
1.000
Source: Bloomberg, NYMEX
Investors are cautioned that the historical price relationships between natural gas and various other energy commodities, as well as other investment asset classes, as measured by correlation may not be reliable predictors of future price movements and correlation results. The results pictured above would have been different if a different range of dates had been selected. USCF believes that natural gas has historically not demonstrated a strong correlation with equities or bonds over long periods of time. However, USCF also believes that in the future it is possible that natural gas could have long-term correlation results that indicate prices of natural gas more closely track the movements of equities or bonds. In addition, USCF believes that, when measured over time periods shorter than ten years, there will always be some periods where the correlation of natural gas to equities and bonds will be either more strongly positively correlated or more strongly negatively correlated than the long term historical results suggest.
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The correlations between natural gas, crude oil, diesel-heating oil and gasoline are relevant because USCF endeavors to invest UNL’s assets in natural gas Futures Contracts and Other Natural Gas-Related Investments so that daily changes in percentage terms in UNL’s per share NAV correlate as closely as possible with daily changes in percentage terms in the average of the prices of the Benchmark Futures Contracts. If certain other fuel-based commodity futures contracts do not closely correlate with the natural gas Futures Contracts, then their use could lead to greater tracking error. As noted above, USCF also believes that the changes in percentage terms in the average of the prices of the Benchmark Futures Contracts will closely correlate with changes in percentage terms in the spot price of natural gas.
For the Year Ended December 31, 2020 Compared to the Year Ended December 31, 2019
The comparison of the fiscal years ended December 31, 2020 and 2019 can be found in UNL’s annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2020 located within Part II, Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations , which is incorporated by reference herein.
Critical Accounting Policies
Preparation of the financial statements and related disclosures in compliance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America requires the application of appropriate accounting rules and guidance, as well as the use of estimates. UNL’s application of these policies involves judgments and actual results may differ from the estimates used.
USCF has evaluated the nature and types of estimates that it makes in preparing UNL’s financial statements and related disclosures and has determined that the valuation of its investments, which are not traded on a United States or internationally recognized futures exchange (such as forward contracts and OTC swaps) involves a critical accounting policy. The values which are used by UNL for its Futures Contracts are provided by its commodity broker who uses market prices when available, while OTC swaps are valued based on the present value of estimated future cash flows that would be received from or paid to a third party in settlement of these derivative contracts prior to their delivery date and valued on a daily basis. In addition, UNL estimates interest and dividend income on a daily basis using prevailing rates earned on its cash and cash equivalents. These estimates are adjusted to the actual amount received on a monthly basis and the difference, if any, is not considered material.
Liquidity and Capital Resources
UNL has not made, and does not anticipate making, use of borrowings or other lines of credit to meet its obligations. UNL has met, and it is anticipated that UNL will continue to meet, its liquidity needs in the normal course of business from the proceeds of the sale of its investments, or from the Treasuries, cash and/or cash equivalents that it intends to hold at all times. UNL’s liquidity needs include: redeeming shares, providing margin deposits for its existing Futures Contracts or the purchase of additional Futures Contracts and posting collateral for its OTC swaps, if applicable, and payment of its expenses, summarized below under “Contractual Obligations.”
UNL currently generates cash primarily from: (i) the sale of baskets consisting of 50,000 shares (“Creation Baskets”) and (ii) income earned on Treasuries, cash and/or cash equivalents. UNL has allocated substantially all of its net assets to trading in Natural Gas Interests. UNL invests in Natural Gas Interests to the fullest extent possible without being leveraged or unable to satisfy its current or potential margin or collateral obligations with respect to its investments in Futures Contracts and Other Natural Gas-Related Investments. A significant portion of UNL’s NAV is held in cash and cash equivalents that are used as margin and as collateral for its trading in Natural Gas Interests. The balance of the assets is held in UNL’s account at its custodian bank and in investments in money market funds and Treasuries at the FCMs. Income received from UNL’s investments in money market funds and Treasuries is paid to UNL. During the year ended December 31, 2021, UNL’s expenses, pre and post expense waiver, exceeded the income UNL earned and the cash earned from the sale of Creation Baskets and the redemption of Redemption Baskets. During the year ended December 31, 2021 UNL used other assets to pay expenses, post expense waiver. To the extent expenses exceed income, UNL’s NAV will be negatively impacted.
USCF endeavors to have the value of UNL’s Treasuries, cash and cash equivalents, whether held by UNL or posted as margin or other collateral, at all times approximate the aggregate market value of its obligations for its investments in its Futures Contracts and Other Natural Gas-Related Investments.
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Although permitted to do so under its Limited Partnership Agreement, UNL has not and does not intend to leverage its assets and makes its investments accordingly. Consistent with the foregoing, UNL’s investment decisions will take into account the need for UNL to make permitted investments that also allow it to maintain adequate liquidity to meet its margin and collateral requirements and to avoid, to the extent reasonably possible, UNL becoming leveraged. If the market conditions require it, these risk reduction procedures may occur on short notice if they occur other than during a roll or rebalance period.
UNL’s investments in Natural Gas Interests may be subject to periods of illiquidity because of market conditions, regulatory considerations and other reasons. For example, most commodity exchanges limit the fluctuations in futures contracts prices during a single day by regulations referred to as “daily limits.” During a single day, no trades may be executed at prices beyond the daily limit. Once the price of a futures contract has increased or decreased by an amount equal to the daily limit, positions in the contracts can neither be taken nor liquidated unless the traders are willing to effect trades at or within the specified daily limit. Such market conditions could prevent UNL from promptly liquidating its positions in Futures Contracts. During the year ended December 31, 2021, UNL did not purchase or liquidate any of its positions while daily limits were in effect; however, UNL cannot predict whether such an event may occur in the future.
Since the initial offering of shares, UNL has been responsible for expenses relating to: (i) management fees, (ii) brokerage fees and commissions, (iii) licensing fees for the use of intellectual property, (iv) ongoing registration expenses in connection with offers and sales of its shares subsequent to the initial offering, (v) other expenses, including tax reporting costs, (vi) fees and expenses of the independent directors of USCF and (vii) other extraordinary expenses not in the ordinary course of business.
UNL may terminate at any time, regardless of whether UNL has incurred losses, subject to the terms of the LP Agreement. In particular, unforeseen circumstances, including, but not limited to, (i) market conditions, regulatory requirements, risk mitigation measures taken by UNL or third parties or otherwise that would lead UNL to determine that it could no longer foreseeably meet its investment objective or that UNL’s aggregate net assets in relation to its operating expenses or its margin or collateral requirements make the continued operation of UNL unreasonable or imprudent, or (ii) adjudication of incompetence, bankruptcy, dissolution, withdrawal or removal of USCF as the general partner of UNL could cause UNL, to terminate unless a majority interest of the limited partners within 90 days of the event elects to continue the partnership and appoints a successor general partner, or the affirmative vote of a majority in interest of the limited partners subject to certain conditions. However, no level of losses will require USCF to terminate UNL. UNL’s termination would cause the liquidation and potential loss of an investor’s investment. Termination could also negatively affect the overall maturity and timing of an investor’s investment portfolio.
Market Risk
Trading in Futures Contracts and Other Natural Gas-Related Investments, such as forwards, involves UNL entering into contractual commitments to purchase or sell natural gas at a specified date in the future. The aggregate market value of the contracts will significantly exceed UNL’s future cash requirements since UNL intends to close out its open positions prior to settlement. As a result, UNL is generally only subject to the risk of loss arising from the change in value of the contracts. UNL considers the “fair value” of its derivative instruments to be the unrealized gain or loss on the contracts. The market risk associated with UNL’s commitments to purchase natural gas is limited to the aggregate market value of the contracts held. However, should UNL enter into a contractual commitment to sell natural gas, it would be required to make delivery of the natural gas at the contract price, repurchase the contract at prevailing prices or settle in cash. Since there are no limits on the future price of natural gas, the market risk to UNL could be unlimited.
UNL’s exposure to market risk depends on a number of factors, including the markets for natural gas, the volatility of interest rates and foreign exchange rates, the liquidity of the Futures Contracts and Other Natural Gas-Related Investments markets and the relationships among the contracts held by UNL. Drastic market occurrences could ultimately lead to the loss of all or substantially all of an investor’s capital.
Credit Risk
When UNL enters into Futures Contracts and Other Natural Gas-Related Investments, it is exposed to the credit risk that the counterparty will not be able to meet its obligations. The counterparty for the Futures Contracts traded on the NYMEX and on most other futures exchanges is the clearinghouse associated with the particular exchange. In general, in addition to margin required to be posted by the clearinghouse in connection with cleared trades, clearinghouses are backed by their members who may be required to share in the financial burden resulting from the nonperformance of one of their members and, therefore, this additional member support should
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significantly reduce credit risk. UNL is not currently a member of any clearinghouse. Some foreign exchanges are not backed by their clearinghouse members but may be backed by a consortium of banks or other financial institutions. There can be no assurance that any counterparty, clearinghouse, or their members or their financial backers will satisfy their obligations to UNL in such circumstances.
USCF attempts to manage the credit risk of UNL by following various trading limitations and policies. In particular, UNL generally posts margin and/or holds liquid assets that are approximately equal to the market value of its obligations to counterparties under the Futures Contracts and Other Natural Gas-Related Investments it holds. USCF has implemented procedures that include, but are not limited to, executing and clearing trades only with creditworthy parties and/or requiring the posting of collateral or margin by such parties for the benefit of UNL to limit its credit exposure. An FCM, when acting on behalf of UNL in accepting orders to purchase or sell Futures Contracts on United States exchanges, is required by CFTC regulations to separately account for and segregate as belonging to UNL, all assets of UNL relating to domestic Futures Contracts trading. These FCMs are not allowed to commingle UNL’s assets with their other assets. In addition, the CFTC requires FCMs to hold in a secure account UNL’s assets related to foreign Futures Contracts .
In the future UNL may purchase OTC swaps, see “Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk” in this annual report on Form 10-K for a discussion of OTC swaps.
As of December 31, 2021, UNL held cash deposits and investments in Treasuries and money market funds in the amount of $15,705,957 with the custodian and FCMs. Some or all of these amounts held by a custodian or an FCM, as applicable, may be subject to loss should UNL’s custodian or FCMs, as applicable, cease operations.
Off Balance Sheet Financing
As of December 31, 2021, UNL had no loan guarantee, credit support or other off-balance sheet arrangements of any kind other than agreements entered into in the normal course of business, which may include indemnification provisions relating to certain risks that service providers undertake in performing services which are in the best interests of UNL. While UNL’s exposure under these indemnification provisions cannot be estimated, they are not expected to have a material impact on UNL’s financial position.
Redemption Basket Obligation
In order to meet its investment objective and pay its contractual obligations described below, UNL requires liquidity to redeem shares, which redemptions must be in blocks of 50,000 shares called “Redemption Baskets.” UNL has to date satisfied this obligation by paying from the cash or cash equivalents it holds or through the sale of its Treasuries in an amount proportionate to the number of shares being redeemed.
Contractual Obligations
UNL’s primary contractual obligations are with USCF. In return for its services, USCF is entitled to a management fee calculated daily and paid monthly as a fixed percentage of UNL’s NAV, currently 0.60% for a NAV of $1 billion or less, and thereafter of 0.50% for a NAV above $1 billion.
USCF agreed to pay the start-up costs associated with the formation of UNL, primarily its legal, accounting and other costs in connection with USCF’s registration with the CFTC as a CPO and the registration and listing of UNL and its shares with the SEC, FINRA and NYSE Arca (formerly, AMEX), respectively. However, since UNL’s initial offering of shares, offering costs incurred in connection with registering and listing additional shares of UNL have been directly borne on an ongoing basis by UNL, and not by USCF.
USCF pays the fees of the Marketing Agent as well as BNY Mellon’s fees for performing administrative, custodial, and transfer agency services. BNY Mellon’s fees for performing administrative services include those in connection with the preparation of UNL’s financial statements and its SEC, NFA and CFTC reports. USCF and UNL have also entered into a licensing agreement with the NYMEX pursuant to which UNL and the Related Public Funds, other than BNO, USCI and CPER, pay a licensing fee to the NYMEX. UNL also pays the fees and expenses associated with its tax accounting and reporting requirements.
USCF paid BBH&Co.’s fees for performing administrative services, including those in connection with the preparation of UNL’s financial statements and its SEC, NFA and CFTC reports through May 31, 2020.
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In addition to USCF’s management fee, UNL pays its brokerage fees (including fees to an FCM), OTC dealer spreads, any licensing fees for the use of intellectual property, and, subsequent to the initial offering, registration and other fees paid to the SEC, FINRA, or other regulatory agencies in connection with the offer and sale of shares, as well as legal, printing, accounting and other expenses associated therewith, and extraordinary expenses. The latter are expenses not incurred in the ordinary course of UNL’s business, including expenses relating to the indemnification of any person against liabilities and obligations to the extent permitted by law and under the LP Agreement, the bringing or defending of actions in law or in equity or otherwise conducting litigation and incurring legal expenses and the settlement of claims and litigation. Commission payments to an FCM are on a contract-by-contract, or round turn, basis. UNL also pays a portion of the fees and expenses of the independent directors of USCF. See Note 3 to the Notes to Financial Statements in Item 8 of this annual report on Form 10-K.
The parties cannot anticipate the amount of payments that will be required under these arrangements for future periods, as UNL’s per share NAVs and trading levels to meet its investment objective will not be known until a future date. These agreements are effective for a specific term agreed upon by the parties with an option to renew, or, in some cases, are in effect for the duration of UNL’s existence. Either party may terminate these agreements earlier for certain reasons described in the agreements.
As of December 31, 2021, UNL’s portfolio consisted of 441 Natural Gas Futures NG contracts traded on the NYMEX. As of December 31, 2021, UNL did not hold any of Futures Contracts traded on the ICE Futures. For a list of current holdings, please see UNL’s website at www.uscfinvestments.com.
Text extracted from the filing as submitted to EDGAR. Formatting, tables and exhibits are simplified for reading; the original document is authoritative for anything you rely on.