Item 1A. Risk Factors
Item 1A. Risk Factors.
Investments in futures contracts are subject to current position limits and accountability levels established by the exchanges. Accordingly, the Sponsor and the Funds may be required to reduce the size of outstanding positions or be restricted from entering into new positions that would otherwise be taken for a Fund or not trade in certain markets on behalf of the Fund in order to comply with those limits or any future limits. These restrictions, if implemented, could limit the ability of each Fund to invest in additional futures contracts, add to existing positions in the desired amount, or create additional Creation Units and could otherwise have a significant negative impact on Fund operations and performance, decreasing a Fund’s correlation to the performance of its benchmark, and otherwise preventing a Fund from achieving its investment objective. On May 4, 2020, CME imposed a more restrictive position limit in September 2020 WTI oil futures contracts with respect to the Oil Funds. In response to CME’s imposition of a more restrictive position limit, global developments, and other factors, the Sponsor modified certain of the Oil Funds’ investment strategies to invest in longer-dated futures contracts. In early July 2020, in anticipation of the roll of the Oil Funds’ benchmark, and in order to help manage the impact of recent extraordinary conditions and volatility in the markets for crude oil and related Financial Instruments, the Sponsor modified certain of the Oil Funds’ investment strategies to invest in longer-dated futures contracts.
During April 2020, the collapse of demand for fuel as a result of economic conditions relating to COVID-19 and other factors created an oversupply of crude oil production that rapidly filled most available oil storage facilities. As a result, market participants who contractually promised to buy and take delivery of crude oil were unable to store the crude oil and were at risk of default under the terms of the May 2020 WTI crude oil futures contract. The scarcity in storage was widespread, and some market participants took the extreme measure of selling their futures contracts at a negative price (effectively paying another market participant to accept their crude oil). As a result, for the first time in history, a period of “extraordinary contango” resulted in certain crude oil futures contracts trading below zero. The effects of rolling futures contracts under extraordinary contango market conditions generally are more exaggerated than rolling futures contracts under contango market conditions and could cause significant losses. The oversupply of oil may continue, impacting futures contracts for other delivery months. Such circumstances may arise as a result of a number of factors, including the following: (1) disruptions in oil pipelines and other means to get oil out of storage and delivered to refineries (as might occur due to infrastructure deterioration, work stoppages, or weather/disaster); (2) any agreement by oil producing nations regarding production limits; or (3) potential government intervention (in the form of grants or other aid) to keep oil producers, and the workers they employ, in service. It is not possible to predict if or when these economic conditions will reverse. Any reversal of these conditions could have a significant negative impact on the performance of the Short Crude Oil Fund.
On February 24, 2022, Russia commenced a military attack on Ukraine. The outbreak of hostilities between the two countries could result in more widespread conflict and could have a severe adverse effect on the region and the markets for securities and commodities, including oil. In addition, sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and other countries, and any sanctions imposed in the future could have a significant adverse impact on the Russian economy and related markets. How long such conflict and related events will last and whether it will escalate further cannot be predicted. Impacts from the conflicts and related events could have significant impact on a Fund’s performance, and the value of an investment in a Fund may decline significantly.
The price of futures contracts can change quickly and without warning. If the price of WTI crude oil futures contracts in the future were to decline significantly or reach a negative price, investors in the Ultra Crude Oil Fund could suffer significant losses or lose their entire investment.
Extreme market volatility and economic turbulence in the first part of 2020 has led to futures commission merchants increasing margin requirements for certain futures contracts, including nearer-dated WTI crude oil and other oil futures contracts. Some futures commission merchants may impose trading limitations, whether in the form of limits or prohibitions on trading oil futures contracts. If the Oil Funds are subject to increased margin requirements, they will incur increased costs and may not be able to achieve desired exposure. The Oil Funds may not be able to achieve their investment objective if they become subject to heightened margin requirements or trading limitations.
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Natural Disasters and Public Health Disruptions, such as the COVID-19 Virus, May Have a Significant Negative Impact on the Performance of Each Fund
Natural or environmental disasters, such as earthquakes, fires, floods, hurricanes, tsunamis and other severe weather-related phenomena generally, and widespread disease, including public health disruptions, pandemics and epidemics (for example, the novel coronavirus COVID-19), have been and may continue to be highly disruptive to economies and markets and have recently led, and may continue to lead, to increased or extreme market volatility, illiquidity and significant market losses. Such natural disaster and health crises could exacerbate political, social, and economic risks, and result in significant breakdowns, delays, shutdowns, social isolation, periods of high unemployment, shortages in and disruptions to the medical care and consumer goods and services industries, and other disruptions to important global, local and regional supply chains affected, with potential corresponding results on the operating performance of the Funds and their investments. For example, during March and April 2020, the U.S. federal government passed various legislation in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the effects and results of which are uncertain. A climate of uncertainty and panic, including the contagion of infectious viruses or diseases, may adversely affect global, regional, and local economies and reduce the availability of potential investment opportunities and accuracy of economic projections. Further, such events can be highly disruptive to economies and markets, significantly disrupt the operations of individual companies (including, but not limited to, the Funds, the Funds’ Sponsor and third party service providers), sectors, industries, markets, securities and commodity exchanges, currencies, interest and inflation rates, credit ratings, investor sentiment, and other factors affecting the value of the Funds’ investments. These factors can cause extreme market volatility, illiquidity, exchange trading suspensions and market closures. A widespread crisis, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, may also affect the global economy in ways that cannot necessarily be foreseen at the current time. How long such events will last and whether they will continue or recur cannot be predicted. Impacts from these events could have significant impact on a Fund’s performance, and the value of an investment in the Fund may decline significantly.
Natural or environmental disasters or public health crisis, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and hurricanes, could result in sudden and large fluctuations in the supply of and demand for crude oil. For example, contemporaneous with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S., crude oil markets experienced shocks to supply of and demand for crude oil, which dramatically impacted the price of crude oil and futures contracts on crude oil and caused extreme volatility in the crude oil markets and crude oil futures markets.
The COVID-19 pandemic has already had, and may continue to have, a significant negative and unpredictable impact on the U.S. and global economy. For example, equity and other markets have experienced extreme declines and volatility. During much of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021, the unemployment rate in the U.S. has been extremely high by historical standards. Further, the global slowdown in the economy contributed to a significant oversupply in the crude oil market, resulting in historic shocks to, and extreme volatility in, the price of oil and related derivatives contracts. It is not possible to predict when unemployment and market conditions will return to more normal levels.
Market downturns, disruptions or illiquidity as a result of, or related to, the COVID-19 pandemic can have a significant negative impact on the value of Fund portfolio investments, the operations of each Fund, the markets in which the Funds invest and the trading of Fund Shares in the secondary market. For example, market factors may adversely affect the price and liquidity of the Funds’ investments and potentially increase margin and collateral requirements in ways that have a significant negative impact on Fund performance or make it difficult, or impossible, for a Fund to achieve its investment objective. Under these circumstances, a Fund could have difficulty finding counterparties to transactions, entering or exiting positions at favorable prices and could incur significant losses. Further, Fund counterparties may close out positions with the Funds without notice, at unfavorable times or unfavorable prices, or may choose to transact on a more limited basis (or not at all). In such cases, it may be difficult or impossible for a Fund to achieve the desired investment exposure consistent with its investment objective. These conditions also can impact the ability of the Funds to complete creation and redemption transactions and disrupt Fund trading in the secondary market.
Risk that Current Assumptions and Expectations Could Become Outdated As a Result of Global Economic Shocks
The onset of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has caused significant shocks to global financial markets and economies, with many governments taking extreme actions in an attempt to slow and contain the spread of COVID-19. These actions have had, and likely will continue to have, a severe economic impact on global economies as economic activity in some instances has essentially ceased. Financial markets across the globe are experiencing severe distress at least equal to what was experienced during the global financial crisis in 2008. U.S. equity markets entered a bear market in the fastest such move in the history of U.S. financial markets in March 2020. These and other global economic shocks as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic may cause the underlying assumptions and expectations concerning the investments, operations and performance of the Funds and secondary market trading of Fund Shares to become inaccurate or outdated quickly, resulting in significant and unexpected losses.
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The Funds as well as the Sponsor and its service providers are vulnerable to the effects of public health crises, including the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic
Pandemics and other public health crises may cause a curtailment of business activities which may potentially impact the ability of the Sponsor and its service providers to operate. The COVID-19 pandemic (including any variants or issues relating to public acceptance of available vaccines) or a similar public health threat could adversely impact the Funds by causing operating delays and disruptions, market disruption and shutdowns (including as a result of government regulation and prevention measures). The COVID-19 pandemic has had and will likely continue to have serious negative effects on social, economic and financial systems, including significant uncertainty and volatility in the financial markets.
Governmental authorities and regulators throughout the world have, in the past, responded to major economic disruptions with a variety of fiscal and monetary policy changes, such as quantitative easing, new monetary programs and lower interest rates. An unexpected or quick reversal of these policies, or the ineffectiveness of these policies, is likely to increase volatility in the market generally, and could specifically increase volatility in the market for gold, which could adversely affect the price of the Funds. The outbreak could also cause the closure of futures exchanges, which could eliminate the ability of Authorized Participants to hedge purchases of Baskets, increasing trading costs and resulting in a sustained premium or discount in the shares of the Funds. The duration of the outbreak and its effects cannot be determined with any reasonable amount of certainty. A prolonged outbreak could result in an increase of the costs of the Funds, affect liquidity in the markets as well as the correlation between the price of the shares of the Funds and the net asset value of the Funds, any of which could adversely and materially affect the value of an investment in the Funds. The outbreak could impair information technology and other operational systems upon which the Funds’ service providers rely and could otherwise disrupt the ability of the employees of such service providers to perform essential tasks on behalf of the Funds.
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