PAR PACIFIC HOLDINGS, INC. 10-Q

Item 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK Commodity Price Risk Our earnings, cash flows, and liquidity are significantly affected by commodity price volatility. Our Revenues fluctuate with refined product prices and our Cost of revenues (excluding depreciation) fluctuates with movements in crude oil and feedstock prices. Assuming all other factors remain constant, a $1 per barrel change in average gross refining margins, based on our throughput for the three months ended March 31, 2021 of 127 thousand barrels per day, would change annualized operating income by approximately $45.9 million. This analysis may differ from actual results. In order to manage commodity price risks, we utilize exchange-traded futures, options, and over-the-counter (“OTC”) swaps associated with: • the price for which we sell our refined products; • the price we pay for crude oil and other feedstocks; • our crude oil and refined products inventory; and • our fuel requirements for our refineries. All of our futures and OTC swaps are executed to economically hedge our physical commodity purchases, sales, and inventory. All our open futures and OTC swaps at March 31, 2021 will settle by October 2021. At March 31, 2021, these open commodity derivative contracts represent (in thousands of barrels): Contract type Purchases Sales Net Futures 500 (250) 250 Swaps 2,525 (3,025) (500) Total 3,025 (3,275) (250) Based on our net open positions at March 31, 2021, a $1 change in the price of crude oil, assuming all other factors remain constant, would result in a change of approximately $0.3 million to the fair value of these derivative instruments and Cost of revenues (excluding depreciation). 48 Our predominant variable operating cost is the cost of fuel consumed in the refining process, which is included in Cost of revenues (excluding depreciation) on our condensed consolidated statements of operations. For the three months ended March 31, 2021, we consumed approximately 127 thousand barrels per day of crude oil during the refining process at our Hawaii, Washington, and Wyoming refineries. We internally consumed approximately 3% of this throughput in the refining process during each of the three months ended March 31, 2021, which is accounted for as a fuel cost. We have economically hedged 25 thousand barrels per month through December 1, 2021 of our internally consumed fuel cost at our Hawaii refineries by executing option collars. These option collars have a weighted-average strike price ranging from a floor of $36.50 per barrel to a ceiling of $60.00 per barrel. We do not currently economically hedge our internally consumed fuel cost at our Wyoming or Washington refineries. Compliance Program Price Risk We are exposed to market risks related to the volatility in the price of RINs required to comply with the Renewable Fuel Standard. Our renewable volume obligation (“RVO”) is based on a percentage of our Hawaii, Wyoming, and Washington refineries’ production of on-road transportation fuel. The EPA sets the RVO percentages annually. The EPA has not yet set volumetric requirements for 2021, which makes it difficult to estimate our obligations. To the degree we are unable to blend the required amount of biofuels to satisfy our RVO, we must purchase RINs on the open market. To mitigate the impact of this risk on our results of operations and cash flows, we may purchase RINs when the price of these instruments is deemed favorable. Some of these contracts are derivative instruments, however, we elect the normal purchases normal sales exception and do not record these contracts at their fair values. Interest Rate Risk As of March 31, 2021, we had $225.0 million in debt principal that was subject to floating interest rates. We also had interest rate exposure in connection with our liabilities under the J. Aron Supply and Offtake Agreements and the MLC Washington Refinery Intermediation Agreement for which we pay charges based on three-month LIBOR. An increase of 1% in the variable rate on our indebtedness, after considering the instruments subject to minimum interest rates, would result in an increase to our Cost of revenues (excluding depreciation) and Interest expense and financing costs, net, of approximately $3.0 million and $3.7 million per year, respectively. We may utilize interest rate swaps to manage our interest rate risk. As of December 31, 2020, we had entered into an interest rate swap at an average fixed rate of 3.91% in exchange for the floating interest rate and on the notional amounts due under the Retail Property Term Loan. This swap was set to expire on April 1, 2024, the maturity date of the Retail Property Term Loan. On February 23, 2021, we terminated and repaid all amounts outstanding under the Retail Property Term Loan and the related interest rate swap. Credit Risk We are subject to risk of losses resulting from nonpayment or nonperformance by our counterparties. We will continue to closely monitor the creditworthiness of customers to whom we grant credit and establish credit limits in accordance with our credit policy.