OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC 10-Q

Item 1A. Risk Factors You should carefully consider the risk factors set forth in the “Risk Factors” section, Item 1A to Part I in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, which is hereby incorporated by reference. These important factors may cause our actual results to differ materially from those indicated by our forward-looking statements, including those contained in this report. Please also see the section entitled “Cautionary Statement Pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995” in this quarterly report on Form 10-Q. There have been no material changes to the risk factors we have disclosed in the “Risk Factors” section of our aforementioned Annual Report on Form 10-K, except as noted below. The sale of the common stock of Ambac Assurance Corporation is subject to receipt of stockholder approval and other closing conditions, and may not be completed as anticipated, or at all. We are seeking the approval of the sale of all of the issued and outstanding shares of common stock, par value $2.50 per share, of Ambac Assurance Corporation, a Wisconsin stock insurance company and wholly-owned subsidiary of AFG (“ AAC ”), for aggregate consideration of $420 million in cash, subject to certain adjustments (the "Sale"), by our stockholders in accordance with Section 271 of the Delaware General Corporation Law on the basis that the Sale could be considered to constitute the sale of substantially all of Ambac’s property and assets within the meaning of that statute and related case law. The closing of the Sale is conditioned on, among other things, the receipt of specified regulatory approvals and AFG obtaining the affirmative vote of the holders of a majority of the outstanding shares of common stock, par value $0.01 per share, of AFG entitled to vote thereon at the special meeting called for such purpose, voting together as a single class in person or by proxy (the "Required Stockholder Approval"). In addition, the purchase agreement relating to the Sale (the "Purchase Agreement") provides for certain termination rights. Buyer and AFG may terminate the Purchase Agreement by mutual written agreement at any time prior to the closing date. In addition, either Buyer or AFG may terminate the Purchase Agreement at any time prior to the closing by giving written notice to the other party if • the closing has not been consummated on or before April 4, 2025 (the "End Date"); provided, however, that if the closing has not occurred solely due to the failure to obtain applicable governmental and regulatory approvals from the authorities including, but not limited to, the OCI, the End Date will be automatically extended for an additional ninety (90) days and the parties agree to continue to use their respective reasonable best efforts to satisfy such conditions to closing; provided, further, that the right to terminate the Purchase Agreement for the foregoing is not available to any party whose breach of any provision of the Purchase Agreement results in the failure of the closing to be consummated • (i) applicable law makes the consummation of the closing illegal or otherwise prohibited or (ii) any judgment, injunction, order or decree of any governmental authority enjoins Buyer and AFG from consummating the closing; or • AFG fails to obtain the Required Stockholder Approval at the special meeting. The Purchase Agreement may be terminated by Buyer by written notice to AFG if a breach of any representation or warranty or failure to perform any covenant or agreement shall have occurred that would cause certain conditions not to be satisfied, and such breach is not cured within sixty (60) days of written notice to AFG or is incapable of being cured by the End Date. Additionally, the Purchase Agreement may be terminated by Buyer if at any time the AFG Board of Directors effects an Ambac Board Recommendation Change (as defined in the Purchase Agreement). The Purchase Agreement may be terminated by AFG by written notice if a breach of any representation or warranty or failure to perform any covenant or agreement shall have occurred that would cause certain conditions not to be satisfied, and such breach is not cured within sixty (60) days of written notice to Buyer or is incapable of being cured by the End Date. The total proceeds realized from the Sale are contingent upon receiving the Required Stockholder Approval and other closing conditions. There can be no assurances that we will receive the vote and satisfy the conditions. Any delay in receiving the required stockholder vote and satisfying the other closing conditions may increase the risk that the Sale will be terminated, or reduce the benefits we expect to achieve. The Sale and the other transactions contemplated by the Purchase Agreement, whether or not completed, may adversely affect the retained business. Transactions such as the Sale are often subject to lawsuits by stockholders. It is possible that our common stockholders or other stakeholders will commence or seek to commence litigation against Ambac or the Ambac Board. Such litigation could result in substantial costs and divert management’s attention from other business concerns, which could adversely affect Ambac's specialty property and casualty insurance business and its insurance distribution businesses that Ambac will continue to operate following the completion of the Sale (the "Retained Business"). In addition, our ability to execute on our business strategies for the Retained Business depends on the retention and recruitment of qualified executives and other professionals. We rely upon the services of our current executive and senior management teams. Ambac Financial Group, Inc. 58 Second Quarter 2024 Form 10-Q Table of Contents In addition to these officers, we rely on key staff with insurance, underwriting, business development, risk management, investment, accounting, finance, legal, technology and other technical and specialized skills. The market for qualified executives, senior managers and other employees has become very competitive. As a result of the Sale, we may experience higher employee turnover and finding qualified replacements may be more difficult. The loss of the services of members of our executive and/or senior management teams or our inability to hire and retain other talented personnel could delay or prevent us from succeeding in executing our strategies, which could negatively impact the Retained Business. Further, while the completion of the Sale is pending, we may be unable to attract and retain key personnel and our management’s focus and attention and employee resources may be diverted from operational matters. If we fail to complete the Sale and the other transactions contemplated by the Purchase Agreement, our business and financial performance may be adversely affected, including in the event Ambac is required to pay the Termination Fee. The completion of the Sale and the other transactions contemplated by the Purchase Agreement is subject to the satisfaction or waiver of various conditions, including the approval of the Sale by our stockholders, which may not be satisfied in a timely manner or at all. If the Sale is not completed, we will not recoup the costs incurred in connection with negotiating the Sale and the other transactions. Our directors, executive officers and other employees will have expended extensive time and effort and will have experienced significant distractions from their work during the pendency of the Sale, and we will have incurred significant third-party transaction costs, in each case, without any commensurate benefit, which may have a material and adverse effect on our stock price and results of operations. Furthermore, if the Sale and the other transactions contemplated by the Purchase Agreement are not completed, the announcement of the termination of the Purchase Agreement may adversely affect our relationships with our customers, business partners and employees, which could have a material adverse impact on our ability to effectively operate our business, and we may be required to pay the Termination Fee of $22 million under certain circumstances, each of which could have further adverse effects on our business, results of operations and the trading price of AFG's common stock. Additionally, we intend to use the proceeds of the Sale to repay all or a portion of the debt used to fund the Beat Transaction. If we do not consummate the Sale then we will need to repay or refinance such debt with other sources of funds, which may not be available on favorable terms or at all. An inability to repay the debt used to fund the Beat Transaction from proceeds of the Sale or other sources, or an inability to refinance such debt on favorable terms or at all, may materially negatively affect our business and results of operations. The Purchase Agreement contains provisions that limit our ability to pursue alternatives to the Sale. The Purchase Agreement contains provisions that make it more difficult for us to sell AAC to any party other than Buyer. These provisions include the prohibition on our ability to solicit competing proposals and the requirement that we pay Buyer the Termination Fee of $22 million if we terminate the Purchase Agreement prior to the closing of the Sale as a result of our determining to accept a Company Acquisition Proposal (as defined in the Purchase Agreement) that we determine in good faith to be a Superior Proposal (as defined in the Purchase Agreement). These provisions make it less advantageous for a third party that might have an interest in acquiring Ambac, or all or a significant part of AAC, to consider or propose an alternative transaction, even if that party were prepared to pay consideration with a higher value than the consideration to be paid by Buyer. If the Purchase Agreement is not approved or if we fail to complete the Sale, there may not be any other offer from a potential acquiror that the AFG Board determines to be attractive. If we fail to complete the Sale, the Board of Directors of AFG, in discharging its fiduciary obligations to our stockholders, may evaluate other strategic alternatives including, but not limited to, continuing to operate AAC and the Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance business for the foreseeable future or an alternative transaction relating to AAC or Ambac. An alternative transaction, if available, may yield lower consideration or value than the proposed Sale, be on less favorable terms and conditions than those contained in the Purchase Agreement and involve significant delay. Any future sale of substantially all of Ambac’s property and assets within the meaning of Section 271 of the Delaware General Corporation Law and related case law or other similar transaction may be subject to further stockholder approval, and there is no guarantee that Ambac would be able to obtain such stockholder approval in favor of any such sale or other transaction. If the Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance business is not sold, there can be no assurance that we will realize value at least equivalent to the proceeds of the Sale from the operation of the Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance business over time, or any value; nor can we predict the timeline for realizing value, if any, from the Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance business in the absence of the Sale. We are planning to further develop and expand our Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance and Insurance Distribution businesses; however, such plans may not be realized, or if realized, may not create value and may negatively impact our financial results. Ambac is planning to further develop and expand its Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance and Insurance Distribution businesses, including through the Beat Transaction. Such plans may involve additional acquisitions of assets or existing businesses and the development of businesses through new or existing subsidiaries. Currently, it is not possible to fully predict the future prospects or other characteristics of such businesses. While we expect to conduct business, financial, and legal due Ambac Financial Group, Inc. 59 Second Quarter 2024 Form 10-Q Table of Contents diligence in connection with the evaluation of any future business or acquisition opportunities, there can be no assurance that our due diligence will identify every matter that could have a material adverse effect on us. Efforts to pursue certain business opportunities may be unsuccessful or require significant financial or other resources, which could have a negative impact on our operating results and financial condition. To implement our growth strategy, we must be able to meet our capital needs, expand our systems and our internal controls effectively, allocate our human resources optimally, identify and hire qualified employees, and effectively integrate any acquisitions we make in our effort to achieve growth. No assurance can be given that we will successfully execute our plans for new business, generate any earnings or value from new businesses or be able to successfully integrate any such business into our current operating structure. .