Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Interest rate risk is defined as the exposure to current and future earnings and capital that arises from adverse movements in interest rates. Depending on a bank’s asset/liability structure, adverse movements in interest rates could be either rising or falling interest rates. For example, a bank with predominantly long-term fixed-rate assets and short-term liabilities could have an adverse earnings exposure to a rising rate environment. Conversely, a short-term or variable-rate asset base funded by longer-term liabilities could be negatively affected by falling rates. This is referred to as re-pricing or maturity mismatch risk.
Interest rate risk also arises from changes in the slope of the yield curve (yield curve risk), from imperfect correlations in the adjustment of rates earned and paid on different instruments with otherwise similar re-pricing characteristics (basis risk), and from interest rate related options embedded in our assets and liabilities (option risk).
Our objective is to manage our interest rate risk by determining whether a given movement in interest rates affects our net interest income and the market value of our portfolio equity in a positive or negative way and to execute strategies to maintain interest rate risk within established limits. The results at September 30, 2023 indicate the level of risk within the parameters of our model. Our management believes that the September 30, 2023 results indicate a profile that reflects interest rate risk exposures in both rising and declining rate environments for both net interest income and economic value.
Model Simulation Analysis. We view interest rate risk from two different perspectives. The traditional accounting perspective, which defines and measures interest rate risk as the change in net interest income and earnings caused by a change in interest rates, provides the best view of short-term interest rate risk exposure. We also view interest rate risk from an economic perspective, which defines and measures interest rate risk as the change in the market value of portfolio equity caused by changes in the values of assets and liabilities, which fluctuate due to changes in interest rates.
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The market value of portfolio equity, also referred to as the economic value of equity, is defined as the present value of future cash flows from existing assets, minus the present value of future cash flows from existing liabilities.
These two perspectives give rise to income simulation and economic value simulation, each of which presents a unique picture of our risk of any movement in interest rates. Income simulation identifies the timing and magnitude of changes in income resulting from changes in prevailing interest rates over a short-term time horizon (usually one or two years). Economic value simulation reflects the interest rate sensitivity of assets and liabilities in a more comprehensive fashion, reflecting all future time periods. It can identify the quantity of interest rate risk as a function of the changes in the economic values of assets and liabilities, and the corresponding change in the economic value of equity of NorthEast Community Bank. Both types of simulation assist in identifying, measuring, monitoring and controlling interest rate risk and are employed by management to ensure that variations in interest rate risk exposure will be maintained within policy guidelines.
We produce these simulation reports and discuss them at our Asset and Liability Committee meetings on at least a quarterly basis. The simulation reports compare baseline (no interest rate change) to the results of an interest rate shock, to illustrate the specific impact of the interest rate scenario tested on income and equity. The model, which incorporates asset and liability rate information, simulates the effect of various interest rate movements on income and equity value. The reports identify and measure our interest rate risk exposure present in our current asset/liability structure. Management considers both a static (current position) and dynamic (forecast changes in volume) analysis as well as non-parallel and gradual changes in interest rates and the yield curve in assessing interest rate exposures.
If the results produce quantifiable interest rate risk exposure beyond our limits, then the testing will have served as a monitoring mechanism to allow us to initiate asset/liability strategies designed to reduce and therefore mitigate interest rate risk. The table below sets forth an approximation of our interest rate risk exposure. The simulation uses projected repricing of assets and liabilities at September 30, 2023. The income simulation analysis presented represents a one-year impact of the interest scenario assuming a static balance sheet. Various assumptions are made regarding the prepayment speed and optionality of loans, investment securities and deposits, which are based on analysis and market information. The assumptions regarding optionality, such as prepayments of loans and the effective lives and repricing of non-maturity deposit products, are documented periodically through evaluation of current market conditions and historical correlations to our specific asset and liability products under varying interest rate scenarios.
Because the prospective effects of hypothetical interest rate changes are based on a number of assumptions, these computations should not be relied upon as indicative of actual results. While we believe such assumptions to be reasonable, assumed prepayment rates may not approximate actual future prepayment activity on mortgage-backed securities or agency issued collateralized obligations (secured by one- to four-family loans and multifamily loans). Further, the computation does not reflect any actions that management may undertake in response to changes in interest rates and assumes a constant asset base. Management periodically reviews the rate assumptions based on existing and projected economic conditions and consults with industry experts to validate our model and simulation results.
The table below sets forth, as of September 30, 2023, NorthEast Community Bank’s net portfolio value, the estimated changes in our net portfolio value and net interest income that would result from the designated instantaneous parallel changes in market interest rates.
Twelve Month
Net Interest Income
Net Portfolio Value
Percent
Percent
Change in Interest Rates (Basis Points)
of Change
Estimated NPV
of Change
+200
14.72
%
$
307,428
3.80
%
+100
7.40
302,827
2.25
0
—
296,164
—
-100
(8.81)
286,634
(3.22)
-200
(17.86)
%
274,942
(7.17)
%
As of September 30, 2023, based on the scenarios above, net interest income would increase by approximately 7.40% to 14.72%, over a one-year time horizon in a rising interest rate environment. One-year net interest income would decrease by approximately 8.81% to 17.86% in a declining interest rate environment over the same period.
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Economic value at risk would be positively impacted by a rise in interest rates and negatively impacted by a decline in interest rates. We have established an interest rate floor of zero percent for measuring interest rate risk. The difference between the two results reflects the relatively long terms of a portion of our assets which is captured by the economic value at risk but has less impact on the one year net interest income sensitivity.
Overall, our September 30, 2023 results indicate that we are adequately positioned with an acceptable net interest income and economic value at risk and that all interest rate risk results continue to be within our policy guidelines.
Text extracted from the filing as submitted to EDGAR. Formatting, tables and exhibits are simplified for reading; the original document is authoritative for anything you rely on.