Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
ITEM 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
The primary components of our market risk relate to interest rates, liquidity, real estate, credit, prepayment rates, basis, and capital markets risk. While we do not seek to avoid risk completely, we seek to assume risk that can be reasonably quantified from historical experience and to actively manage that risk, to earn sufficient returns to justify taking those risks and to maintain capital levels consistent with the risks we undertake. Many of these risks have become particularly heightened due to sustained inflation, rising mortgage rates, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy actions, and market uncertainty from geopolitical risks.
Interest rate risk
Interest rate risk is highly sensitive to many factors, including governmental monetary, fiscal and tax policies, domestic and international economic and political considerations and other factors beyond our control. We are subject to interest rate risk in connection with both our investments and the financing under our financing arrangements. We generally seek to manage this risk by monitoring the reset index and the interest rate related to our investment portfolio and our financings; by structuring our financing arrangements to have a range of maturity terms, amortizations and interest rate adjustment periods; and by using derivative instruments to adjust interest rate sensitivity of our investment portfolio and borrowings. Our hedging techniques can be highly complex, and the value of our investment portfolio and derivatives may be adversely affected as a result of changing interest rates.
Interest rate effects on net interest income
Our operating results depend in large part upon differences between the yields earned on our investments and our cost of borrowing and upon the effectiveness of our interest rate hedging activities. The majority of our financing arrangements are short term in nature, exclusive of our residential mortgage loans financed through securitized debt. Repurchase agreements financing our securities portfolio or retained interests from our securitizations typically have an initial term between 30 and 90 days while repurchase agreements financing our residential mortgage loans prior to securitization have an initial term of one year. The financing rate on these agreements will generally be determined at the outset of each transaction by reference to prevailing rates plus a spread. As a result, our borrowing costs will tend to increase during periods of rising interest rates as we renew, or "roll", maturing transactions at the higher prevailing rates. When combined with the fact that the income we earn on our fixed interest rate investments will remain substantially unchanged, this will result in a narrowing of the net interest spread between the related assets and borrowings and may even result in losses.
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In an attempt to offset the increase in funding costs related to rising interest rates, our Manager may cause us to enter into hedging transactions structured to provide us with positive cash flow in the event interest rates rise. Our Manager accomplishes this through the use of interest rate derivatives. Some hedging strategies involving the use of derivatives are highly complex, may produce volatile returns and may expose us to increased risks relating to counterparty defaults.
Interest rate effects on fair value
Another component of interest rate risk is the effect that changes in interest rates will have on the fair value of the assets that we acquire.
Generally, in a rising interest rate environment, the fair value of our loan and real estate securities portfolios would be expected to decrease, all other factors being held constant. In particular, the portion of our real estate securities and loan portfolios with fixed-rate coupons would be expected to decrease in value more severely than that portion with a floating-rate coupon. This is because fixed-rate coupon assets tend to have significantly more duration, or price sensitivity to changes in interest rates, than floating-rate coupon assets. Fixed-rate assets currently represent a majority of our portfolio.
The fair value of our investment portfolio could change at a different rate than the fair value of our liabilities when interest rates change. We measure the sensitivity of our portfolio to changes in interest rates by estimating the duration of our assets and liabilities. Duration is the approximate percentage change in fair value for an instantaneous 100 basis point parallel shift in the yield curve while assuming all other market risk factors remain constant. In general, our assets have higher duration than our liabilities. In order to reduce this exposure, we use hedging instruments to reduce the gap in duration between our assets and liabilities.
Interest rate sensitivity
The following table quantifies the estimated percent change in GAAP equity, the fair value of our assets, and projected net interest income should interest rates go up or down instantaneously by 25, 50, and 75 basis points, assuming (i) the yield curves of the rate shocks will be parallel to each other and the current yield curve and (ii) all other market risk factors remain constant. These estimates were compiled using a combination of third-party services and models, market data and internal models. All changes in equity, assets, and income are measured as percentage changes from the GAAP equity, assets, and projected net interest income from our base interest rate scenario. The base interest rate scenario assumes spot and forward interest rates existing as of December 31, 2025. Actual results could differ materially from these estimates.
Agency RMBS and Agency-Eligible Loan assumptions attempt to predict default and prepayment activity at projected interest rate levels. To the extent that these estimates or other assumptions do not hold true, actual results will likely differ materially from projections and could result in percentage changes larger or smaller than the estimates in the table below. Moreover, if different models were employed in the analysis, materially different projections could result. In addition, while the table below reflects the estimated impact of interest rate increases and decreases on a static portfolio as of December 31, 2025, our Manager may from time to time sell any of our investments as a part of the overall management of our investment portfolio.
Change in Interest Rates
(basis points) (1)(2) Change in Fair
Value as a Percentage
of GAAP Equity (3) Change in Fair
Value as a
Percentage of Assets (3) Percentage Change in
Projected Net Interest
Income (4)
75 (1.8) % (0.1) % 0.3 %
50 (1.2) % (0.1) % 0.3 %
25 (0.6) % — % 0.3 %
(25) 0.6 % — % (0.4) %
(50) 1.2 % 0.1 % (0.8) %
(75) 1.8 % 0.1 % (1.2) %
(1) Includes investments held through affiliated entities that are reported as "Investments in debt and equity of affiliates" on our consolidated balance sheet, but excludes AG Arc.
(2) Does not include cash investments, which typically have overnight maturities and are not expected to change in value as interest rates change.
(3) Changes in fair value as a percentage of GAAP equity and assets are inclusive of forward purchase commitments to acquire Non-Agency Loans and Agency-Eligible Loans as of December 31, 2025.
(4) Interest income includes trades settled as of December 31, 2025.
The information set forth in the interest rate sensitivity table above and all related disclosures constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Exchange Act. Actual results could
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differ significantly from those estimated in the foregoing interest rate sensitivity table. See below for additional risks which may impact the fair value of our assets, GAAP equity and net income.
Liquidity risk
Our primary liquidity risk arises from financing long-maturity assets with shorter-term financings primarily in the form of financing arrangements. Our Manager seeks to mitigate our liquidity risks by maintaining a prudent level of leverage, monitoring our liquidity position on a daily basis and maintaining a reasonable cushion of cash and unpledged real estate securities and loans in our portfolio in order to meet future margin calls. In addition, our Manager seeks to further mitigate our liquidity risk by (i) maintaining relationships with a carefully selected group of financing counterparties and (ii) monitoring the ongoing financial stability and future business plans of our financing counterparties.
Liquidity risk – financing arrangements
We pledge mortgage loans or real estate securities and cash as collateral to secure our financing arrangements. Should the fair value of our mortgage loans or real estate securities pledged as collateral decrease (as a result of rising interest rates, changes in prepayment speeds, widening of credit spreads or otherwise), we will likely be subject to margin calls for additional collateral from our financing counterparties. Should the fair value of our mortgage loans or real estate securities decrease materially and suddenly, margin calls will likely increase causing an adverse change to our liquidity position which could result in substantial losses. In addition, we cannot be assured that we will always be able to roll our financing arrangements at their scheduled maturities, which could cause material additional harm to our liquidity position and result in substantial losses. Further, should funding conditions tighten as they did in 2007-2008, 2009 and more recently in March 2020, our financing arrangement counterparties may increase our margin requirements on new financings, including repurchase transactions that we roll at maturity with the same counterparty. This would require us to post additional collateral and would reduce our ability to use leverage and could potentially cause us to incur substantial losses.
Liquidity risk – derivatives
The terms of our interest rate swaps require us to post collateral in the form of cash or Agency RMBS to our counterparties to satisfy two types of margin requirements: variation margin and initial margin.
We and our swap counterparties are both required to post variation margin to each other depending upon the daily moves in prevailing benchmark interest rates. The amount of this variation margin is derived from the mark to market valuation of our swaps. Hence, as our swaps lose value in a falling interest rate environment, we are required to post additional variation margin to our counterparties on a daily basis; conversely, as our swaps gain value in a rising interest rate environment, we are able to recall variation margin from our counterparties. By recalling variation margin from our swaps counterparties, we are able to partially mitigate the liquidity risk created by margin calls on our repurchase transactions during periods of rising interest rates.
Initial margin works differently. Collateral posted to meet initial margin requirements is intended to create a safety buffer to benefit our counterparties if we were to default on our payment obligations under the terms of the swaps and our counterparties were forced to unwind the swap. Initial margin on our centrally cleared trades varies from day to day depending upon various factors, including the absolute level of interest rates and the implied volatility of interest rates. There is a distinctly positive correlation between initial margin, on the one hand, and the absolute level of interest rates and implied volatility of interest rates, on the other hand. As a result, in times of rising interest rates or increasing rate volatility, we anticipate that the initial margin required on our centrally-cleared trades will likewise increase, potentially by a substantial amount. These margin increases will have a negative impact on our liquidity position and will likely impair the intended liquidity risk mitigation effect of our swaps discussed above.
Real estate value risk
Residential property values are subject to volatility and may be affected adversely by a number of factors outside of our control, including, but not limited to, national, regional and local economic conditions (which may be adversely affected by industry slowdowns and other factors); local real estate conditions (such as an oversupply of housing); natural disasters, the effects of climate change (including flooding, drought, wildfire, tornadoes and severe weather) and other natural events; construction quality, age and design; demographic factors; and retroactive changes to building or similar codes. Decreases in property values could cause us to suffer losses and reduce the value of the collateral underlying our investment portfolio as well as the potential sale proceeds available to repay our loans in the event of a default. In addition, substantial decreases in property values can increase the rate of strategic defaults by residential mortgage borrowers which can impact and create significant uncertainty in
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the recovery of principal and interest on our investments.
Credit risk
We are exposed to the risk of potential credit losses from an unanticipated increase in borrower defaults as well as general credit spread widening on any non-agency assets in our portfolio. We seek to manage this risk through our Manager’s pre-acquisition due diligence process and, if available, through the use of non-recourse financing, which limits our exposure to credit losses to the specific pool of collateral which is the subject of the non-recourse financing. Our Manager’s pre-acquisition due diligence process includes the evaluation of, among other things, relative valuation, supply and demand trends, the shape of various yield curves, prepayment rates, delinquency and default rates, recovery of various sectors and vintage of collateral.
The potential effects of sustained inflation, elevated mortgage rates, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy actions may cause an increase in credit risk of our credit sensitive assets. Any future period of payment deferrals, forbearance, delinquencies, defaults, foreclosures or losses will likely adversely affect our net interest income from residential loans and RMBS investments, the fair value of these assets, our ability to liquidate the collateral that may underlie these investments and obtain additional financing and the future profitability of our investments. Further, in the event of delinquencies, defaults and foreclosure, regulatory changes and policies designed to protect borrowers and renters may slow or prevent us from taking remediation actions.
Prepayment risk
Premiums arise when we acquire real estate assets at a price in excess of the principal balance of the mortgages securing such assets (i.e., par value). Conversely, discounts arise when we acquire assets at a price below the principal balance of the mortgages securing such assets. Premiums paid on our assets are amortized against interest income and accretable purchase discounts on our assets are accreted to interest income. Purchase premiums or discounts on our assets are amortized or accreted over the life of each respective asset using the effective yield method, adjusted for actual prepayment activity. An increase in the prepayment rate, as measured by the CPR, will typically accelerate the amortization of purchase premiums, thereby reducing the yield or interest income earned on such assets. An increase in the prepayment rate will similarly accelerate the accretion of purchase discounts, conversely increasing the yield or interest income earned on such assets. A decrease in the prepayment rate will have a directionally opposite impact on the yield or interest income.
Differences between previously estimated cash flows and current actual and anticipated cash flows caused by changes to prepayment or other assumptions are adjusted retrospectively through a "catch up" adjustment for the impact of the cumulative change in the effective yield through the reporting date for securities accounted for under ASC 320-10 (generally, Agency RMBS) or adjusted prospectively through an adjustment of the yield over the remaining life of the investment for investments accounted for under ASC 325-40 (generally, Non-Agency RMBS and interest-only securities) and mortgage loans accounted for under ASC 310-10.
In addition, our interest rate hedges are structured in part based upon assumed levels of future prepayments within our mortgage loan or real estate securities portfolio. If prepayments are slower or faster than assumed, the life of the real estate securities or mortgage loans will be longer or shorter than assumed, respectively, which could reduce the effectiveness of our Manager’s hedging strategies and may cause losses on such transactions.
Our Manager seeks to mitigate our prepayment risk by investing in real estate assets with a variety of prepayment characteristics.
Basis risk
Basis risk refers to the possible decline in book value triggered by the risk of incurring losses on the fair value of Agency RMBS as a result of widening market spreads between the yields on Agency RMBS and the yields on comparable duration Treasury securities. The basis risk associated with fluctuations in fair value of Agency RMBS may relate to factors impacting the mortgage and fixed income markets other than changes in benchmark interest rates, such as actual or anticipated monetary policy actions by the Federal Reserve, market liquidity, or changes in required rates of return on different assets. Consequently, while we use interest rate swaps and other hedges to protect against moves in interest rates, such instruments will generally not protect our net book value against basis risk.
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Capital Markets Risk
We are exposed to risks related to the equity capital markets, and our related ability to raise capital through the issuance of our common stock, preferred stock or other equity instruments. We are also exposed to risks related to the debt capital markets, and our related ability to finance our business through revolving facilities or other debt instruments. As a REIT, we are required to distribute a significant portion of our taxable income annually, which constrains our ability to accumulate operating cash flow and therefore may require us to utilize debt or equity capital to finance our business. We seek to mitigate these risks by monitoring the debt and equity capital markets to inform our decisions on the amount, timing, and terms of capital we raise.
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