Hub Group, Inc. 10-K

Item 5. MARKET FOR REGISTRANT'S COMMON EQUITY AND RELATED STOCKHOLDER MATTERS AND ISSUER PURCHASES OF EQUITY SECURITIES Our Class A Common Stock (“Class A Common Stock”) trades on the Nasdaq Global Select Market tier of the Nasdaq Stock Market under the symbol “HUBG.” There is no established trading market for shares of our Class B Common Stock (the “Class B Common Stock” together with the Class A Common Stock, the “Common Stock”). On February 15, 2023, there were approximately 394 stockholders of record of the Class A Common Stock and in addition, there were an estimated 31,241 beneficial owners of the Class A Common Stock whose shares were held by brokers and other fiduciary institutions. On February 15, 2023, there were 10 holders of record of our Class B Common Stock. Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities In October 2022, our Board of Directors (the “Board”) authorized the purchase of up to $200 million of our Class A Common Stock pursuant to a share repurchase program (the “ 2022 Program ” ). Under the 2022 Program, the shares may be repurchased in the open market or in privately negotiated transactions, from time to time subject to market and other conditions. The approved share repurchase program does not obligate us to repurchase any dollar amount or number of shares, and the program may be modified, suspended or discontinued at any time. 19 We purchased 33,915 shares of Class A Common Stock for $2.5 million related to employee withholding upon vesting of restricted stock in the fourth quarter of 2022 and 64,153 shares for $5.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. The table below provides information on a monthly basis regarding the number of shares delivered to us by employees to satisfy the mandatory tax withholding requirement upon vesting of restricted stock during the fourth quarter of 2022. These shares do not reduce the repurchase authority under the 2022 Program. Maximum Value of Total Total Number of Shares that May Yet Number of Average Shares Purchased Be Purchased Under Shares Price Paid as Part of the the 2022 Program Purchased Per Share 2022 Program (in 000’s) 10/1/2022 - 10/31/2022 23,905 $ 73.20 - $ 200,000 11/1/2022 - 11/30/2022 2,946 $ 78.12 - $ 200,000 12/1/2022 - 12/31/2022 7,064 $ 78.44 - $ 200,000 Total 33,915 $ 74.72 - $ 200,000 We were incorporated in 1995 and have never paid cash dividends on either the Class A Common Stock or the Class B Common Stock. The declaration and payment of dividends are subject to the discretion of the Board of Directors. Any determination as to the payment of dividends will depend upon our results of operations, capital requirements and financial condition of the Company, and such other factors as the Board of Directors may deem relevant. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that the Board of Directors will declare or pay cash dividends on the shares of Common Stock in the future. Our certificate of incorporation requires that any cash dividends must be paid equally on each outstanding share of Class A Common Stock and Class B Common Stock. Our credit facility prohibits us from paying dividends on the Common Stock if there has been, or immediately following the payment of a dividend there would be, a default or an event of default under the credit facility. We are currently in compliance with the covenants contained in the credit facility. 20 Performance Graph The following line graph compares the Company’s cumulative total stockholder return on its Class A Common Stock since December 31, 2017 with the cumulative total return of the Nasdaq Stock Market Index (NQUSBT) and the Nasdaq Trucking and Transportation Index (NQUSB27707). These comparisons assume the investment of $100 on December 31, 2017 in each index and in the Company’s Class A Common Stock and the reinvestment of dividends. Item 6. RESERVED 21 Item 7. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS This section of the Form 10-K generally discusses 2022 and 2021 items and year-to-year comparisons between 2022 and 2021. Discussions of 2020 items and year-to-year comparisons between 2021 and 2020 that are not included in this Form 10-K can be found in “Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in Part II, Item 7 of the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2021, which is incorporated herein by reference. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY We are a leading supply chain solutions provider in North America that offers comprehensive transportation and logistics management services focused on reliability, visibility and value for our customers. Our service offerings include a full range of freight transportation and logistics services, some of which are provided by assets we own and operate, and some of which are provided by third parties with whom we contract. Our transportation services include intermodal, truckload, less-than-truckload, flatbed, temperature-controlled, dedicated and regional trucking. Our logistics services include full outsource logistics solutions, transportation management services, freight consolidation, warehousing and fulfillment, final mile delivery, parcel and international services. We service a large and diversified customer base in a broad range of industries, including retail, consumer products and durable goods. We believe our strategy to offer multi-modal supply chain management solutions serves to strengthen and deepen our relationships with our customers and allows us to provide a more cost effective and higher service solution. As part of our profit improvement initiatives, we have focused on realizing efficiencies between our drayage trucking operation (which supports our intermodal service) and our dedicated trucking operation, including through the sharing of equipment and drivers, and by leveraging a combined set of driver support services including driver recruiting, asset management and safety functions. As a result, in 2022, we reported revenue for these operations under the “Intermodal and Transportation Solutions” line of business. We have recast the prior period information to conform with current year presentation. We provide services in three lines of business. Our intermodal and transportation solutions line of business offers high service, nationwide door-to-door intermodal transportation, providing value, visibility and reliability in both transcontinental and local lanes by combining rail transportation with local trucking. We arrange for the movement of our customers’ freight in one of our approximately 49,000 containers. We contract with railroads to provide transportation for the long-haul portion of the shipment between rail terminals. Local pickup and delivery services (referred to as “drayage”) between origin or destination and rail terminals are provided by our own trucking operations and third parties with whom we contract. As of December 31, 2022, our trucking transportation operation consisted of approximately 2,300 tractors, 3,000 employee drivers and 4,600 trailers. We also contract for services with approximately 750 independent owner-operators. These assets and contractual services are used to support drayage for our intermodal service offering and to serve our customers who require high service local and regional trucking transportation using equipment dedicated to their needs. Our dedicated service operation offers fleets of equipment and drivers to each customer on a contract basis, as well as the management and infrastructure to operate according to the customer’s high service expectations. Our truck brokerage operation offers a full range of trucking transportation on a non-asset basis, as we match customers’ shipping needs with trucking carriers’ capacity to provide the most effective combination of service and price. Our services include dry van, expedited, less-than-truckload, refrigerated and flatbed. We substantially increased the size of our brokerage service line, and increased our refrigerated transportation capabilities, through the acquisition of Choptank Transport, LLC (“Choptank”) in October 2021. Approximately half of our truck brokerage volume is generated from committed pricing transactions, with the remainder consisting of loads that are priced on a transactional basis. Our logistics business offers a wide range of transportation and logistics management services and technology solutions including shipment optimization, load consolidation, mode selection, carrier management, load planning and execution, warehousing, fulfillment and shipment visibility. We offer multi-modal transportation services including full truckload, less-than-truckload, intermodal, final mile, railcar, small parcel and international transportation. The acquisition of TAGG Logistics, LLC (“TAGG”) enhanced our presence in the consolidation and fulfillment space and added a complementary e-commerce offering to serve our customers' multimodal transportation and logistics needs. The acquisition added scale to our logistics service line and has resulted in complementary cross-selling opportunities. 22 In the first half of 2022, we experienced favorable market conditions which led to strong demand for our services. During this time period, North American consumer spending, particularly on the types of goods that our customers offer, remained robust. The response to the COVID-19 pandemic caused many changes in consumer behavior, including a propensity for consumers to shift spending from services toward goods, and also to increase spending on household goods. Toward the end of 2022, many of our customers, particularly our retailer customers, began to experience rising inventory levels which led to a reduction in their demand for shipping services. During the first half of 2022, available transportation capacity in North America was constrained by high levels of demand, shortages of available drivers, and challenges with the production of new tractors and other equipment. These factors, coupled with strong demand for our transportation capacity, resulted in rising prices for certain of our services and those of our competitors. Beginning in the second quarter of 2022, pricing for certain types of transportation, including transactionally priced freight, began to decline from levels that existed earlier in 2022. We are focused on several margin enhancement projects including network optimization, matching of inbound and outbound loads, reducing empty miles, improving our recovery of accessorial costs, increasing our driver and asset utilization, reducing repositioning costs, providing holistic solutions and improving low profit freight. Hub’s top 50 customers represent approximately 63% of revenue for fiscal 2022 while one customer accounted for more than 10% of our revenue in 2022. We use various performance indicators to manage our business. We closely monitor profit levels for our top customers. We also evaluate on-time performance, customer service, cost per load and daily sales outstanding by customer account. Vendor cost changes and vendor service levels are also monitored closely. During 2022, we took delivery of approximately 600 new tractors and we expect to take delivery of approximately 500 in 2023. A portion of these new units represent replacements for older tractors. These replacements will allow us to reduce operating costs as new equipment generally features lower repair and maintenance costs, while also consuming less fuel per mile operated, which has both financial and environmental benefits. In addition, we recognized approximately $24 million of gains on the sale of older tractors in 2022 due to the strength in the market for used equipment. We expect the market for used equipment will be significantly softer in 2023. Uncertainties and risks to our outlook include the following: inflation, a slowdown in consumer spending (driven by, among other factors, rising inflation, rapid increases in gasoline prices, recession, increases in interest rates, and geopolitical concerns), a shift by consumers to spending on services at the expense of goods, an increase of retailers' inventory levels, a significant increase in transportation supply in the marketplace, aggressive pricing actions by our competitors; and any inability to pass cost increases, such as transportation and warehouse costs, through to our customers, all of which could have a materially negative impact on our revenue, profitability and cash flow in 2023. Because of the change in the Chief Operating Decision Maker (“CODM”) of the Company at the beginning of 2023, we are evaluating the potential realignment of the business and reportable segment information based on the information the CODM regularly reviews to evaluate performance for operating decision-making purposes, including evaluation and allocation of resources. We continually monitor and review our segment reporting structure in accordance with authoritative guidance to determine whether any changes have occurred that would impact our reportable segments. For a discussion of segment reporting, see Note 18 to the consolidated financial statements under “Subsequent Events,” which discussion and note are incorporated herein by reference. Strategic Transactions On August 22, 2022, we acquired 100% of the equity interests of TAGG. Total consideration for the transaction was approximately $103.5 million in cash. On October 19, 2021, we acquired 100% of the equity interests of Choptank. Total consideration for the transaction was $127.6 million in cash and the settlement of accounts receivable due from Choptank of $0.3 million. In connection with the acquisition, we granted approximately $22 million of restricted stock to Choptank's senior management team, which is subject to certain vesting conditions. On December 9, 2020, we acquired 100% of the equity interests of NonstopDelivery, LLC (“NSD”). Total consideration for the transaction was $105.9 million which consisted of cash paid of $89.8 million, of which $0.1 million was paid in the second quarter of 2021 as part of the post-closing true-up, and the settlement of Hub’s accounts receivable due from NSD of $16.1 million. 23 RESULTS OF OPERATIONS Year Ended December 31, 2022 Compared to Year Ended December 31, 2021 The following table summarizes our revenue by business line (in thousands): Years Ended December 31, 2022 2021 Intermodal and transportation solutions $ 3,301,835 $ 2,656,128 Truck brokerage 1,049,733 688,867 Logistics 988,922 887,388 Total revenue $ 5,340,490 $ 4,232,383 The following is a summary of operating results and certain items in the consolidated statements of income as a percentage of revenue: Years Ended December 31, 2022 2021 Revenue $ 5,340,490 100.0% $ 4,232,383 100.0% Transportation costs 4,450,985 83.3% 3,632,743 85.8% Gross margin 889,505 16.7% 599,640 14.2% Costs and expenses: Salaries and benefits 264,891 5.0% 247,240 5.9% General and administrative 103,933 1.9% 76,476 1.8% Depreciation and amortization 45,960 0.9% 37,467 0.9% Total costs and expenses 414,784 7.8% 361,183 8.6% Operating income $ 474,721 8.9% $ 238,457 5.6% Revenue Revenue increased 26% to $5.3 billion in 2022 from $4.2 billion in 2021. Intermodal and Transportation Solutions (“ITS”) revenue increased 24% to $3.3 billion primarily due to a 31% increase in intermodal revenue per load. Truck brokerage revenue increased 52% to $1.0 billion primarily due to the addition of Choptank as well as growth in the existing operations. Logistics revenue increased 11% to $989 million due to the acquisition of TAGG and growth of our managed transportation, final mile and consolidation services, partially offset by the impact of lost customers. Transportation Costs Transportation costs increased to $4.5 billion in 2022 from $3.6 billion in 2021. Transportation costs in 2022 consisted of purchased transportation costs of $3.6 billion and equipment and driver related costs of $832 million. Transportation costs in 2021 consisted of purchased transportation costs of $2.9 billion and equipment and driver related costs of $687 million. The 23% increase in purchased transportation costs was primarily due to increased rail costs, increased fuel costs, higher brokerage volume, higher third-party carrier costs and increased repositioning costs. Equipment and driver related costs increased 21% in 2022 primarily due to higher driver wages and increased equipment depreciation expense, increased repairs and maintenance expense and increased usage of our internal drayage resources to 55% of total drayage moves in 2022 from 50% in 2021. Gross Margin Gross margin increased 48% to $890 million in 2022 from $600 million in 2021. The $290 million gross margin increase was the result of increases in all lines of business lines. As a percentage of revenue, gross margin increased to 16.7% in 2022 from 14.2% in 2021. ITS gross margin increased compared to the prior year primarily due to a 31% increase in intermodal revenue per load, partially offset by increased purchased transportation costs. ITS gross margin as a percentage of revenue increased 320 basis points. Truck brokerage gross margin increased primarily due to the Choptank acquisition and growth in revenue in our existing operations, partially offset by the impact of higher purchased transportation costs. Truck brokerage gross margin as a percentage of revenue declined 40 basis points. Logistics gross margin increased primarily due to growth with existing customers, new business onboardings, and yield management initiatives and the TAGG acquisition, partially offset by higher warehousing and transportation costs. Logistics gross margin as a percentage of revenue expanded by 300 basis points. 24 CONSOLIDATED OPERATING EXPENSES Salaries and Benefits Salaries and benefits increased to $265 million in 2022 from $247 million in 2021. These expenses, as a percentage of revenue, decreased to 5.0% in 2022 from 5.9% in 2021. The increase of $18 million was primarily due the additions of TAGG and Choptank, partially offset by decreases in salary expense of $10 million related to a reduction in headcount excluding the additions of TAGG and Choptank employees and lower restricted stock expense of $3 million. Headcount as of December 31, 2022 and 2021 was 2,214 and 2,304, respectively, which excludes drivers and warehouse employees, the costs for which are included in transportation costs. The reduction in headcount year over year was partially offset by the addition of TAGG employees. General and Administrative General and administrative expenses increased to $104 million in 2022 from $76 million in 2021. These expenses, as a percentage of revenue, increased to 1.9% in 2022 from 1.8% in 2021. The increase of $27 million in general and administrative expense was primarily due to the additions of TAGG and Choptank as well as increases in claims and legal expenses, higher use tax expense, the impairment write-off of leased assets, higher professional costs related to acquisitions and IT costs, partially offset by higher gains recognized from the sale of equipment in 2022. Depreciation and Amortization Depreciation and amortization increased to $46 million in 2022 from $37 million in 2021. This expense, as a percentage of revenue, remained consistent at 0.9% in both 2022 and 2021. This increase was related primarily to the amortization of intangibles related to the acquisitions of TAGG and Choptank. Other Expense, Net Other expense decreased to $7 million in 2022 from $8 million in 2021 due to higher interest income in 2022 compared to 2021. Provision for Income Taxes Provision for income taxes increased to $111 million in 2022 from $59 million in 2021 due to significantly higher pre-tax income in 2022. Our effective tax rate was 23.7% in 2022 and 25.7% in 2021. See Note 7, “ Income Taxes, ” in our consolidated financial statements for a detailed reconciliation of our effective tax rate. The lower effective tax rate in 2022 compared to 2021 was primarily related to a change in our state apportionment factors, resulting in a reduction to the tax rate and we also decreased the valuation allowance on state tax incentives due to our increase in pre-tax income. Net Income Net income increased to $357 million in 2022 from $171 million in 2021 due primarily to an increase in gross margin, partially offset by higher operating costs and expenses and higher income tax expense. LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES Our financing and liquidity strategy is to fund operating cash payments through cash received from the provision of services, cash on hand, and to a lesser extent, from cash received from the sale of equipment. As of December 31, 2022, we had $287 million of cash and cash equivalents and $18 million of restricted investments. We generally fund our purchases of transportation equipment through the issuance of secured, fixed rate Equipment Notes. Payments for our other investing activities, such as the construction of our office buildings, investments in warehousing improvements and our capitalized technology investments, have been funded by cash on hand or cash flows from operations. Cash used in financing activities including the purchase of treasury stock has been funded by cash from operations or cash on hand. We have not historically used our Credit Facility to fund our operating, investing or financing cash needs, though it is available to fund future cash requirements as needed. In the last three years, we have funded our business acquisitions from cash on hand, though in the future we may elect to fund these activities through a combination of cash on hand, borrowings on our Credit Facility, or from issuance of secured or unsecured debt. Based on past performance and current expectations, we believe cash on hand and cash received from the provision of services, along with other financing sources, will provide us the necessary capital to fund transactions and achieve our planned growth for the next twelve months and the foreseeable future. 25 Cash provided by operating activities for the year ended December 31, 2022 was approximately $458 million, which resulted primarily from income of $357 million plus non-cash charges of $160 million, partially offset by changes in operating assets and liabilities of $59 million. Cash provided by operating activities totaled $458 million in 2022 compared to $253 million in 2021. The $205 million increase in cash flow was primarily due to an increase in net income of $185 million and an increase in non-cash charges of $33 million, partially offset by decreases in the change in assets and liabilities of $13 million. Net cash used in investing activities for the year ended December 31, 2022 was $279 million which included capital expenditures of $219 million and cash used in acquisitions of $103 million, partially offset by proceeds from the sale of equipment of $43 million. Capital expenditures of $219 million related primarily to containers of $101 million, tractors of $68 million, technology investments of $23 million, building and furniture spend for our corporate headquarters of $19 million and other transportation equipment of $8 million. Capital expenditures increased by approximately $86 million in 2022 as compared to 2021. The 2022 increase was due to increases in container purchases of $50 million, tractor purchases of $16 million and technology investments of $8 million, spend on our corporate headquarters of $6 million, more purchases of other transportation equipment of $5 million and leasehold improvements of $1 million. In 2023, we estimate capital expenditures will range from $170 million to $190 million. We expect transportation equipment purchases to range from $145 million to $150 million, technology investments will range from $20 million to $25 million and warehouse equipment will range from $5 million to $15 million. We plan to fund these expenditures with a combination of cash and debt. Net cash used in financing activities for the year ended December 31, 2022 was $52 million which includes repayments of long-term debt of $111 million, cash used for the purchase of treasury stock of $75 million, cash used for the purchase of treasury stock from related party of $35 million, cash used for stock tendered for payments of withholding taxes of $8 million and finance lease payments of $2 million, partially offset by proceeds from the issuance of debt of $179 million. Debt incurred in 2022 was used to fund the purchase of transportation equipment. The $45 million increase in cash used in financing activities for 2022 versus 2021 was primarily due to the increase in the purchase of treasury stock of $75 million, the purchase of treasury stock from a related party of $35 million and cash paid for payments of long-term debt of $4 million, partially offset by the increase in proceeds from the issuance of debt of $67 million. In 2022, cash paid for income taxes was $129 million, of which $101 million related to 2022 and $28 million related to 2021. In 2023, we expect to pay an additional $1 million of cash for taxes related to 2022. The $101 million of cash paid for income taxes related to 2022 is less than the 2022 income tax expense of $111 million. This difference is a result of favorable book to tax differences, primarily those related to fixed assets, which caused 2022 taxable income to be less than 2022 financial statement income before taxes. See Note 10 of the consolidated financial statements for details related to interest rates and commitment fees. We have standby letters of credit that expire in 2023. As of December 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021, our letters of credit were $43 million and $41 million, respectively. As of December 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021, we had no borrowings under our respective credit agreements and our unused and available borrowings were $307 million and $309 million, respectively. We were in compliance with the financial covenants in our credit agreements as of December 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021. 26 CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS Aggregated information about our obligations and commitments to make future contractual payments such as debt and lease obligations as of December 31, 2022 is presented in the following table (in thousands). Future Payments Due: Operating Finance Interest Leases Leases Debt on Debt Total Year 1 $ 33,547 $ 1,179 $ 101,741 $ 9,515 $ 145,982 Year 2 29,618 - 82,809 6,742 119,169 Year 3 24,081 - 73,645 4,408 102,134 Year 4 16,300 - 57,317 2,258 75,875 Year 5 9,136 - 26,953 521 36,610 Thereafter 5,618 - - - 5,618 $ 118,300 $ 1,179 $ 342,465 $ 23,444 $ 485,388 As of February 15, 2023, Hub signed various operating and finance leases which had not commenced as of December 31, 2022. Based on the present value of the lease payments, the estimated right-of-use (“ROU”) assets and lease liabilities related to these contracts will total approximately $107.7 million and $1.8 million for operating and finance leases, respectively. Deferred Compensation Under our Nonqualified Deferred Compensation Plan (the “Plan”), participants can elect to defer certain compensation. Payments under the Plan are due as follows (in thousands): Future Payments Due: Year 1 $ 2,116 Year 2 1,721 Year 3 2,005 Year 4 1,227 Year 5 935 Thereafter 9,768 $ 17,772 The above future payments are fully funded by our restricted investments comprised of mutual funds and other security instruments as noted in Note 14. 27 CRITICAL ACCOUNTING POLICIES The preparation of financial statements in conformity with United States generally accepted accounting principles requires management to make estimates and assumptions. In certain circumstances, those estimates and assumptions can affect amounts reported in the accompanying consolidated financial statements. We have made our best estimates and judgments of certain amounts included in the financial statements, giving due consideration to materiality. We do not believe there is a great likelihood that materially different amounts would be reported related to the accounting policies described below. However, application of these accounting policies involves the exercise of judgment and use of assumptions as to future uncertainties and, as a result, actual results could differ from these estimates. The following is a brief discussion of the more significant accounting policies and estimates. These critical accounting policies are further discussed in Note 1 of the consolidated financial statements, which describes these and our other significant accounting policies. Revenue Recognition In accordance with the Accounting Standards Codification (ASC) topic 606, “Revenue from Contracts with Customers,” our significant accounting policy for revenue is as follows: Revenue is recognized when we transfer services to our customers in an amount that reflects the consideration we expect to receive. We account for a contract when it has approval and commitment from both parties, the rights of the parties are identified, payment terms are identified, the contract has commercial substance and collectability of consideration is probable. We generally recognize revenue over time because of continuous transfer of control to the customer. Since control is transferred over time, revenue and related transportation costs are recognized based on relative transit time, which is based on the extent of progress towards completion of the related performance obligation. We enter into contracts that can include various combinations of services, which are capable of being distinct and accounted for as separate performance obligations. Taxes assessed by a governmental authority that are both imposed on and concurrent with a specific revenue-producing transaction, that are collected by the Company from a customer, are excluded from revenue. Further, in most cases, we report our revenue on a gross basis because we are the primary obligor as we are responsible for providing the service desired by the customer. Our customers view us as responsible for fulfillment including the acceptability of the service. Service requirements may include, for example, on-time delivery, handling freight loss and damage claims, setting appointments for pick-up and delivery and tracing shipments in transit. We have discretion in setting prices for our services and as a result, the amount we earn varies. In addition, we have the discretion to select our vendors from multiple suppliers for the services ordered by our customers. These factors, discretion in setting prices and discretion in selecting vendors, further support reporting revenue on a gross basis for most of our revenue. Allowance for Uncollectible Trade Accounts We extend credit to customers after a review of each customer’s credit profile and history. An allowance for uncollectible trade accounts has been established through an analysis of the accounts receivable aging, an assessment of collectability based on historical trends and an evaluation based on current economic conditions. Annually we review, in hindsight, the percentage of receivables that are collected that aged over one year, those that are not one year old and the accounts that went into bankruptcy. We reserve for accounts less than one year old based on specifically identified uncollectible balances and our historic collection percentage, including receivable adjustments charged through revenue for items such as billing disputes. In establishing a reserve for certain account balances specifically identified as uncollectible, we consider the aging of the customer receivables, the specific details as to why the receivable has not been paid, the customer’s current and projected financial results, the customer’s ability to meet and sustain its financial commitments, the positive or negative effects of the current and projected industry outlook and the general economic conditions. Our historical collection percentage has been over 98% on average for receivables that are less than one year old. Changes in our historical collection percentages of receivables that are less than one year old either positively or negatively, based on our collection history, would affect our calculated allowance for uncollectible trade accounts. Once a receivable ages over one year, our collection percentage is much lower, thus a separate allowance is calculated for open receivables that have aged over one year. We also review our collection percentage after a customer has gone into bankruptcy. Although these collection percentages may change both negatively and positively, since only a small portion of our receivables are aged over one year or are involved in a bankruptcy case, a large change in either of those collection percentages would not have a material impact on our financial statements. Our level of reserves for customer accounts receivable fluctuates depending upon all the factors mentioned above. Historically, our reserve for uncollectible accounts has approximated actual accounts written off and we do not expect the reserve for uncollectible accounts to change significantly relative to our accounts receivable balance. The allowance for uncollectible accounts is reported on the balance sheet in net accounts receivable. Recoveries of receivables previously charged off are recorded when received. 28 Claims Accruals We purchase insurance coverage for a portion of expenses related to employee injuries, vehicular collisions, accidents, and cargo damage. Certain insurance arrangements include high SIR limits or deductibles applicable to each claim. We have umbrella policies to limit our exposure above these SIR limits and deductibles. Our claims accrual policy for all self-insured claims is to recognize a liability at the time of the incident based on our analysis of the nature and severity of the claims and analyses provided by third-party claims administrators, as well as legal and regulatory factors. Our safety and claims personnel work directly with representatives from the insurance companies and third-party administrators to continually update the estimated cost of each claim. The ultimate cost of a claim develops over time as additional information regarding the nature, timing, and extent of damages claimed becomes available. Accordingly, we use actuarial methods to develop current claim information to derive an estimate of our ultimate claim liability. This process involves the use of loss-development factors based on our historical claims experience. In doing so, the recorded liability considers future claims growth and provides an allowance for incurred-but-not-reported claims. Changes in loss development factors caused by differences between the estimates of future medical costs, future severity trend factors and future legal costs could materially change our recorded claim accrual liability. Our claim accrual liability is classified as either current or non-current in the consolidated balance sheet based on an estimate of when the claims are expected to be paid. We do not discount our estimated losses. In addition, we record receivables for amounts expected to be reimbursed for payments made in excess of self-insurance levels on covered claims. OUTLOOK, RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES Business Combinations/Divestitures We believe that any future acquisitions or divestitures that we may make could significantly impact financial results. Financial results most likely to be impacted include, but are not limited to, revenue, gross margin, salaries and benefits, general and administrative expenses, depreciation and amortization, interest expense, net income and our debt level. Revenue We believe that the performance of our railroad vendors and a severe or prolonged slow-down of the economy are the most significant factors that could negatively influence our revenue growth rate. Should the rail industry experience a prolonged disruption in service, we believe our intermodal business would likely be negatively impacted. Other factors that could negatively influence our growth rate include, but are not limited to, the elimination of fuel surcharges, lower fuel prices, the entry of new competitors, aggressive pricing by new or existing competitors, poor customer retention, inadequate drayage and intermodal service and inadequate equipment supply, an economic recession and inflation. Gross Margin We expect fluctuations in gross margin as a percentage of revenue from quarter-to-quarter caused by various factors including, but not limited to, competitor pricing actions, changes in our business mix, start-up costs for new business, changes in logistics services between transactional business and management fee business, changes in truck brokerage services between transactional, committed and other types of service, insurance and claim costs, driver recruiting costs, driver compensation changes, impact of regulations on drayage costs, trailer and container capacity, vendor cost increases, fuel costs, equipment depreciation and operating costs, equipment utilization, transportation industry growth, intermodal industry service levels, accessorials, competitive pricing and related changes in accounting estimates. Salaries and Benefits We estimate that salaries and benefits as a percentage of revenue could fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter as there are timing differences between volume increases and changes in levels of staffing. Factors that could cause the percentage not to stay in the recent historical range include, but are not limited to, revenue growth rates significantly higher or lower than forecasted, a management decision to invest in additional personnel to stimulate new or existing businesses, changes in customer requirements, changes in our operating structure, availability of labor supply at current rates, severance, employee insurance costs, how well we perform against our incentive-compensation and other bonus goals, and changes in railroad intermodal service levels which could result in a lower or higher cost of labor per move. 29 General and Administrative We believe there are several factors that could cause general and administrative expenses to fluctuate as a percentage of revenue. As customer expectations and the competitive environment require the development of new technology interfaces and the restructuring of our information systems and related platforms, we believe there could be significant expenses incurred. Other factors that could cause general and administrative expense to fluctuate include, but are not limited to, changes in insurance premiums, technology expense related to software and services, claim expense, non income tax expense, bad debt expense, professional services expense and costs related to acquisitions or divestitures. Additionally, the gains or losses on sales of used assets can result in fluctuating general and administrative expenses. Depreciation and Amortization We operate tractors and utilize containers, trailers and chassis in connection with our business. This equipment may be purchased or leased as part of an operating or financing lease. In addition, we rent equipment from third parties under short term rental arrangements. Equipment which is purchased is depreciated on the straight-line method over the estimated useful life. We anticipate additional amortization expense due to recent and future acquisitions. Impairment of Property and Equipment, Goodwill, Indefinite-Lived Intangibles and Leased Right-of-Use Assets On an ongoing basis, we assess the realizability of our assets. If, at any point during the year, we determine that an impairment exists, the carrying amount of the asset is reduced by the estimated impairment with a corresponding charge to earnings which could have a material adverse impact on earnings. Other Expense We expect interest expense to increase in 2023 because we financed our 2022 tractor and container purchases with debt at higher interest rates and we expect to incur debt for a significant portion of our 2023 capital expenditures. Factors that could cause a change in interest expense include, but are not limited to, change in interest rates, change in investments, funding working capital needs, funding capital expenditures, funding an acquisition and purchase of treasury stock. Provision for Income Taxes Based on current tax legislation, we estimate that our effective tax rate will be between 24% and 25% in 2023. In the normal course of business, we are audited by federal, state, and foreign tax authorities, and are periodically challenged regarding the amount of taxes due. These challenges relate to the timing and amount of deductions and the allocation of income among various tax jurisdictions. We believe our tax positions comply with applicable tax law and we intend to defend our positions. In evaluating the exposure associated with various tax filing positions, we record reserves for uncertain tax positions in accordance with U.S. GAAP based on the technical support for the positions, our past audit experience with similar situations, and potential interest and penalties related to such matters. Our financial results and effective tax rate in any given period could be impacted if, upon final resolution with taxing authorities, we prevail on positions for which reserves have been established, or we are required to pay amounts that exceed established reserves. Significant judgment is required in determining and assessing the impact of complex tax laws and certain tax-related contingencies on our provision for income taxes. As part of our calculation of the provision for income taxes, we assess whether the benefits of our tax positions are at least more likely than not to be sustained upon audit based on the technical merits of the tax position. For tax positions that are not more likely than not to be sustained upon audit, we accrue the largest amount of the benefit that is not more likely than not to be sustained in our financial statements. Such accruals require us to make estimates and judgments, whereby actual results could vary materially from these estimates. Further, years may elapse before a particular matter for which we have established an accrual is audited and resolved or its statute of limitations expires. See Note 7, “Income Taxes,” in our consolidated financial statements for a discussion of our current unrecognized tax benefits. 30 Realizability of Deferred Tax Assets We account for income taxes under the asset and liability method of ASC 740. Our deferred tax assets and liabilities represent items that will result in tax deductions or taxable income in future years for which we have already recorded the related tax expense or benefit in our income statement. Deferred tax assets and liabilities are a result of timing differences between when items are recognized in our income tax returns and when they are recognized on our consolidated income statement. Each quarter, we assess the likelihood that deferred tax assets will be recovered from the reversal of timing differences or from future taxable income. A valuation allowance is established if we feel that the recovery of the deferred tax asset does not meet the more-likely-than-not threshold. If a valuation allowance is established, an expense is recorded as part of our income tax provision. In determining whether a valuation allowance is warranted, we evaluate factors such as prior earnings history, expected future earnings, carryback and carryforward periods, expected future deductions and tax strategies that could potentially enhance the likelihood of realization of a deferred tax asset.