Item 1A. Risk Factors
ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS
In addition to the information set forth in this Quarterly Report, the risks that are discussed in the Company’s Annual Report under the headings “Risk Factors,” “Business and Properties,” “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” and “Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk,” should be carefully considered, as such risks could materially affect the Company's business, financial condition or future results. Except as set forth below, there has been no material change in the Company's risk factors that were described in the Company’s Annual Report.
Crude oil, NGL and natural gas prices are volatile. Sustained volatility, or declines in, crude oil, NGL and natural gas prices could adversely affect HighPeak Energy ’ s business, financial condition and results of operations and its ability to meet its capital expenditure obligations and other financial commitments.
The prices we receive for our crude oil, NGL and natural gas production heavily influence its revenue, profitability, access to capital, future rate of growth and the carrying value of its properties. The markets for crude oil and natural gas have been volatile historically and are likely to remain volatile in the future. For example, during the period from January 1, 2021 through March 31, 2025, the calendar month average NYMEX WTI crude oil price per Bbl ranged from a low of $52.10 to a high of $114.34, and the last trading day NYMEX natural gas price per MMBtu ranged from a low of $1.58 to a high of $9.35. One of the factors which caused the fall in prices was OPEC being unable to reach an agreement on production levels for crude oil, which resulted in Saudi Arabia and Russia initiating efforts to increase production. The convergence of these events, along with the significantly reduced demand because of the COVID-19 pandemic, created an unprecedented global crude oil and natural gas supply and demand imbalance, reduced global crude oil and natural gas storage capacity, caused crude oil and natural gas prices to decline significantly and resulted in continued volatility in crude oil, NGL and natural gas prices. Prices have recovered to pre-pandemic levels, with the calendar month average NYMEX WTI crude oil price of $67.33 per Bbl and the last trading day NYMEX natural gas price of $3.20 per MMBtu for the month of June 2025. However, there can be no certainty that commodity prices will sustain at these levels or continue to increase. In addition, the current U.S. presidential administration has signaled it will encourage increased domestic production of crude oil, which could lead to declines in crude oil, NGL and natural gas prices.
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Likewise, NGL, which are made up of ethane, propane, isobutane, normal butane and natural gasoline, each of which has different uses and pricing characteristics, have also fluctuated widely during this period. The prices HighPeak Energy receives for its production, and the levels of HighPeak Energy’s production, will depend on numerous factors beyond HighPeak Energy’s control, which include the following:
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worldwide and regional economic conditions, including elevated interest rates and associated policies of the Federal Reserve, impacting the global supply and demand for crude oil, NGL and natural gas;
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the price and quantity of foreign imports of crude oil, NGL and natural gas;
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domestic and global political and economic conditions, such as the change in U.S. presidential administration, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas conflict, the Israel-Iran conflict, socio-political unrest and instability, terrorism or hostilities in or affecting other producing regions or countries, including the Middle East, Africa, South America and Russia;
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the occurrence or threat of epidemic or pandemic diseases, such as COVID-19, or any government response to such occurrence or threat;
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actions of OPEC, its members and other state-controlled crude oil companies relating to crude oil price and production controls;
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the level of global exploration, development and production;
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the level of global inventories;
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prevailing prices, and expectations regarding future prices, on local price indexes in the areas in which HighPeak Energy operates;
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the proximity, capacity, cost and availability of gathering and transportation facilities;
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localized and global supply and demand fundamentals and transportation availability;
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the cost of exploring for, developing, producing and transporting reserves;
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weather conditions and natural disasters;
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technological advances affecting energy consumption;
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the price and availability of alternative fuels, including the potential acceleration of the development of alternative fuels as a result of the IRA 2022 or otherwise;
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expectations about future commodity prices; and
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U.S. federal, state and local and non-U.S. governmental regulation and taxes.
Lower commodity prices may reduce HighPeak Energy’s cash flow and access to capital markets. If HighPeak Energy is unable to obtain needed capital or financing on satisfactory terms, its ability to develop future reserves could be adversely affected. Also, using lower prices in estimating proved reserves may result in a reduction in proved reserve volumes due to economic limits. In addition, sustained periods with lower crude oil and natural gas prices may adversely affect drilling economics and HighPeak Energy’s ability to raise capital, which may require it to re-evaluate and postpone or eliminate its development program, and result in the reduction of some proved undeveloped reserves and related standardized measure. If HighPeak Energy is required to curtail its drilling program, HighPeak Energy may be unable to hold leases that are scheduled to expire, which may further reduce reserves. As a result, a substantial or extended decline in commodity prices may materially and adversely affect HighPeak Energy’s future business, financial condition, results of operations, liquidity and ability to finance planned capital expenditures.
Tariffs and other trade measures could adversely affect our operations, profitability and business.
On April 2, 2025, the United States announced a baseline tariff on all foreign goods, with goods imported from specified nations, including China and those in the European Union, subject to higher tariff rates. Since then, there have been delays of imposition of tariffs while the United States negotiates with those countries, and the extent of such delays and the ultimate outcome and impacts cannot be predicted at this time. It remains unclear to what extent, upon which countries, and upon which terms, tariffs may be levied and, to the extent that such trade policies impact our supply chain, we may not be able to fully mitigate the impact of these increased costs or pass price increases on to our customers.
We may be materially adversely impacted by tariffs if we are not able to adapt our supply chain strategy. We may also face unanticipated costs in developing our domestic supply chain and increased competition for materials and components in the United States, which also would impact our business and results of operations. The imposition of tariffs has and may create uncertainty in our industry. Increases in costs to drill and develop reserves as a result of tariffs coupled with lower commodity prices from increased domestic production could make producing such reserves no longer economically viable or technically feasible. Additionally, existing or future tariffs may negatively affect our customers, suppliers, and manufacturing partners. Such outcomes could adversely affect the amount or timing of our revenues, results of operations or cash flows, and continuing uncertainty could cause sales volatility and price fluctuations.
Tariffs, the adoption and expansion of trade restrictions, the occurrence of a trade war, or other governmental action related to tariffs, trade agreements or related policies have the potential to adversely impact our supply chain and access to equipment, and our costs and ability to economically serve certain markets. Any such cost increases or decreases in availability could slow our growth and cause our financial results and operational metrics to suffer. There is current uncertainty about the future relationship between the United States and other countries with respect to trade policies, taxes, government regulations, and tariffs and we cannot predict whether, and to what extent, U.S. trade policies will change in the future.
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HighPeak Energy ’ s development projects and acquisitions will require substantial capital expenditures. HighPeak Energy may be unable to obtain required capital or financing on satisfactory terms, including as a result of recent increases in the cost of capital resulting from Federal Reserve policies or otherwise, which could reduce its ability to access or increase production and reserves.
The crude oil and natural gas industry is capital-intensive. We have evaluated multiple development scenarios under multiple potential commodity price assumptions. Under its current 2025 development program, we would expect to incur approximately $375 to $405 million of capital expenditures for drilling, completion, facilities and equipping costs, $40 to $50 million for field infrastructure and $33 to $35 million on one-time infrastructure expenditures. The ability to make these capital expenditures will be highly dependent on the price of crude oil and available funding of HighPeak Energy. Commodity prices have declined in the first half of 2025, with the calendar month average NYMEX WTI price of $67.33 per Bbl and last trading day NYMEX natural gas price of $3.20 per MMBtu for the month of June 2025. We ran a two-rig program for the majority of 2024. We expect to average one to two (1-2) drilling rigs and one (1) frac crew during 2025. We recognize that commodity prices remain highly volatile and that its liquidity is limited, and as a result, there is no certainty that we will operate a two (2) rig development program in the future.
We expect to fund our forecasted capital expenditures with cash on its balance sheet, cash generated by operations and, depending on market circumstances, potential future debt or equity offerings.
Cash flows from operations are subject to significant uncertainty. As a result, the amount of liquidity that we will have in the future is uncertain.
Our financing needs may require it to alter or increase its capitalization substantially through the issuance of debt or equity securities or the sale of assets. The availability and cost of these capital sources is cyclical, and these capital sources may not remain available, or we may not be able to obtain financing at a reasonable cost in the future. For example, due to the high levels of inflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve and other central banks increased interest rates multiple times in 2022 and 2023, and began decreasing rates with three rate cuts toward the end of 2024. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates steady thus far in 2025, and citing the unknown effects of the Trump Administration’s trade policies on inflation, it has indicated that it may resume such decreases, although uncertainty remains as to when or if such elevated rates may be decreased further. Such increased interest rates have increased the cost of capital and may prevent us from being able to obtain debt financing at favorable rates, or at all, which would materially impact our operations. In addition, conditions in the global capital markets have been volatile due to uncertainty around tariff rates and trade policies, the conflict in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas conflict, the Israel-Iran conflict or otherwise, making terms for certain types of financing difficult to predict, and in certain cases, resulting in certain types of financing being unavailable. Further, the issuance of additional indebtedness would require that an additional portion of cash flow from operations be used for the payment of interest and principal on its indebtedness, thereby further reducing its ability to use cash flow from operations to fund working capital, capital expenditures and acquisitions. The issuance of additional equity securities would be dilutive to existing stockholders. The actual amount and timing of future capital expenditures may differ materially from estimates as a result of, among other things: commodity prices; actual drilling results; the availability of drilling rigs and other services and equipment; and regulatory, technological and competitive developments. A reduction in commodity prices from current levels may result in a decrease in actual capital expenditures, which would negatively impact our ability to increase production.
Our cash flow from operations and access to capital are subject to several variables, including:
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the prices at which our production is sold;
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proved reserves;
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the amount of hydrocarbons we are able to produce from its wells;
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Our ability to acquire, locate and produce new reserves;
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the amount of our operating expenses;
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cash settlements from our derivative activities;
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production interruptions or curtailments from time-to-time related to third-party infrastructure downtime or delays in third-party installation of infrastructure, including electrical power supply, that affects our ability to produce our crude oil and natural gas;
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the duration and scope of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine and conflict in the Middle East, including between Israel and Hamas and between Israel and Iran;
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Our ability to obtain storage capacity for the crude oil it produces;
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restrictions in the instruments governing our debt on our ability to incur additional indebtedness; and
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Our ability to access the public or private capital markets.
Should our revenues decrease as a result of lower crude oil, NGL and natural gas prices, operational difficulties, declines in reserves or for any other reason, we may have limited ability to obtain the capital necessary to sustain operations at expected levels. If additional capital is needed, we may not be able to obtain debt or equity financing on terms acceptable to it, if at all, due to elevated interest rates and associated policies of the Federal Reserve, or otherwise. If cash flow generated by our operations or available debt financing are insufficient to meet its capital requirements, the failure to obtain additional financing could result in a curtailment of the development of our properties, which in turn could lead to a decline in reserves and production and could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations. If we seek and obtain additional financing, subject to the restrictions in the instruments governing its existing debt, the addition of new debt to existing debt levels could intensify the operational risks that we will face. Further, adding new debt could limit our ability to service existing debt service obligations.
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Hedging transactions expose HighPeak Energy to counterparty credit risk and may become more costly or unavailable.
Hedging transactions expose us to risk of financial loss if a counterparty fails to perform under a derivative contract. Disruptions in the financial markets could lead to sudden decreases in a counterparty’s liquidity, which could make them unable to perform under the terms of the derivative contract and we may not be able to realize the benefit of the derivative contract. Derivative instruments also expose us to the risk of financial loss in some circumstances, including when there is an increase in the differential between the underlying price in the derivative instrument and actual prices received or there are issues with regard to legal enforceability of such instruments.
The use of derivatives may, in some cases, require the posting of cash collateral with counterparties. If we enter into derivative instruments that require cash collateral and commodity prices or interest rates change in an adverse manner, our cash otherwise available for use in operations would be reduced which could limit our ability to make future capital expenditures and make payments on indebtedness. Future collateral requirements will depend on arrangements with counterparties, highly volatile crude oil, NGL and natural gas prices and interest rates.
In addition, derivative arrangements could limit the benefits to be received from increases in the prices for natural gas, NGL and crude oil, which could also have an adverse effect on HighPeak Energy’s financial condition. If natural gas, NGL or crude oil prices upon settlement of derivative swap contracts exceed the price at which commodities have been hedged, we will be obligated to make cash payments to counterparties, which could, in certain circumstances, be significant.
HighPeak Energy experiences periods of higher costs when commodity prices rise and inflation may adversely affect our operating results, which could negatively impact our profitability, cash flow and ability to complete development activities as planned. Continuing or worsening inflationary issues and associated changes in monetary policy have resulted in and may result in additional increases to the cost of our goods, services and personnel, which in turn could cause our capital expenditures and operating costs to rise.
Historically, capital and operating costs have risen during periods of increasing crude oil, NGL and natural gas prices. Inflationary factors such as increases in labor costs, material costs and overhead costs may adversely affect our operating results. These cost increases have resulted from a variety of factors that we will be unable to control, such as increases in the cost of electricity, steel and other raw materials; increased demand for labor, services and materials as drilling activity increases; and increased taxes. Such costs may rise faster than increases in our revenue if commodity prices rise, thereby negatively impacting its profitability, cash flow and ability to complete development activities as scheduled and on budget. A high rate of inflation may have an adverse effect on our operating results and this impact may be magnified to the extent that our ability to participate in the commodity price increases is limited by its derivative activities.
Although inflation rates moderated in 2024 and the first half of 2025, inflationary pressures have resulted in and may result in additional increases to the costs of our oilfield goods, services and personnel, which would in turn cause our capital expenditures and operating costs to rise. Due to the high levels of inflation, the Federal Reserve and other central banks increased interest rates multiple times in 2022 and 2023, and began decreasing rates with three rate cuts toward the end of 2024. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates steady thus far in 2025, and citing the unknown effects of the Trump Administration’s trade policies on inflation, it has indicated that it may resume such decreases, although uncertainty remains as to when or if such rates may be decreased further.
Higher crude oil and natural gas prices, continued inflation and supply chain issues as well as an increase in demand for services may cause the costs of materials and services to continue to rise. We cannot predict any future trends in the rate of inflation, and a significant increase in inflation, to the extent we are unable to recover higher costs through higher crude oil and natural gas prices and revenues, would negatively impact our business, financial condition and results of operations.
Volatility in the political, legal and regulatory environments as a result of the change in the U.S. presidential administration and political instability or armed conflict in crude oil or natural gas producing regions, such as the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas conflict, the Israel-Iran conflict and OPEC policy decisions could have a material adverse impact on our business, financial condition or future results.
Our business, financial condition and future results are subject to political and economic risks and uncertainties, including volatility in the political, legal and regulatory environments as a result of the imposition of and changes in tariffs and instability resulting from civil unrest, political demonstrations, mass strikes or armed conflict or other crises in crude oil or natural gas producing areas such as the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas conflict and the Israel-Iran conflict.
The United States and other countries and certain international organizations have imposed broad-ranging and severe economic sanctions on Russia and certain Russian individuals, banking entities and corporations as a response, and additional sanctions may be imposed in the future. This conflict and the resulting sanctions and concerns regarding global energy security have contributed to increases and volatility in the prices for crude oil and natural gas. The length, impact, and outcome of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine is highly unpredictable, and such events or any further hostilities in Ukraine or elsewhere could severely impact the world economy and may adversely affect our financial condition. Furthermore, escalations of the Israel-Hamas or the Israel-Iran conflicts may result in heightened geopolitical risks for crude oil and natural gas markets, given the significant share of global oil supply in the Middle East. While the Company does not have operations overseas, these conflicts elevate the likelihood of supply chain disruptions, heightened volatility in crude oil and natural gas prices and negative effects on our ability to raise additional capital when required and could have a material adverse impact on our business, financial condition or future results.
Currently, global crude oil inventories are low relative to historical levels and supply from OPEC and other crude oil producing nations are not expected to be sufficient to meet forecasted crude oil demand growth for the next few years. It is believed that many OPEC countries will be unable to increase their production levels or even produce at expected levels due to their lack of capital investments in developing incremental crude oil supplies over the past few years. In April 2025, OPEC began phasing out a 2.2 million Bopd reduction in oil production, which it had previously postponed due to a slowdown in global demand and rising output surrounding the global economic and crude oil market outlooks. Furthermore, sanctions and import bans on Russian crude oil have been implemented by various countries in response to the war in Ukraine, further impacting global crude oil supply. Still, crude oil and natural gas prices have declined from the highs experienced in second quarter of 2022 and could decrease or increase with any changes in demand due to, among other things, uncertainty and volatility from global supply chain disruptions attributable to the pandemic, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas conflict, the Israel-Iran conflict, international sanctions, speculation as to future actions by OPEC, increasing inflation and government efforts to reduce inflation, and possible changes in the overall health of the global economy, including a prolonged recession. Further, the volatility in crude oil and natural gas prices could accelerate a transition away from fossil fuels, resulting in reduced demand over the longer term. To what extent these and other external factors (such as government action with respect to climate change regulation) ultimately impact our future business, liquidity, financial condition, and results of operations is highly uncertain and dependent on numerous factors, including future developments, which are not within our control and cannot be accurately predicted.
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We are evaluating strategic alternatives, including a possible sale of our business, and there can be no assurance that we will be successful in identifying or completing any strategic alternative transactions, that any such strategic alternative transactions will result in additional value for our shareholders or that the process will not have an adverse impact on our business and shareholders.
Our Board continues to evaluate a range of strategic alternative transactions to maximize shareholder value, including a potential sale of the Company. These transactions could include, but are not limited to, acquisitions, debt refinancing transactions, asset divestitures, monetization of intellectual property, and mergers, reverse mergers or other business combinations. Because we have publicly approved the undertaking of this process, the market price of our common stock may reflect an expectation that shares of our common stock may be acquired at a premium in the near future.
There can be no assurance that the review of strategic alternative transactions will result in the identification or consummation of any transaction. Our Board may also determine that our most effective strategy is to continue to effectuate our current business plan. The process of reviewing strategic alternative transactions may be time consuming and disruptive to our business operations and, if we are unable to effectively manage the process, our business, financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected. We could incur substantial expenses associated with identifying and evaluating potential strategic alternative transactions. No decision has been made with respect to any transaction and we cannot assure you that we will be able to identify and undertake any transaction that allows our shareholders to realize an increase in the value of their common stock or provide any guidance on the timing of such action, if any.
We also cannot assure you that any potential transaction or other strategic alternatives, if identified, evaluated and consummated, will provide greater value to our shareholders than that reflected in the current price of our common stock. Any potential transaction would be dependent upon a number of factors that may be beyond our control, including, but not limited to, market conditions, industry trends, the interest of third parties in our business and the availability of financing to potential buyers on reasonable terms. We do not intend to comment regarding the evaluation of strategic alternative transactions until such time as our Board has determined the outcome of the process or otherwise has deemed that disclosure is appropriate or required by applicable law. As a consequence, perceived uncertainties related to our future may result in the loss of potential business opportunities and volatility in the market price of our common stock and may make it more difficult for us to attract and retain qualified personnel and business partners. Volatility in the trading price of our common stock could also adversely affect the trading market for and the trading price of the notes.
The Principal Stockholder Group has significant influence over HighPeak Energy.
The Principal Stockholder Group owns approximately 68% of our common stock as of June 30, 2025. This includes an aggregate of approximately one million shares of common stock purchased by the Principal Stockholder Group in connection with the Company’s underwritten equity offering in July 2023, which further increased the Principal Stockholder Group’s ownership in the Company. As long as the Principal Stockholder Group owns or controls a significant percentage of our outstanding voting power, subject to the terms of the Stockholders’ Agreement, they will have the ability to influence certain corporate actions requiring stockholder approval. Under the Stockholders’ Agreement, the Principal Stockholder Group will be entitled to nominate a specified number of directors for appointment to the Board so long as the Principal Stockholder Group meets certain ownership criteria outlined in the Stockholders’ Agreement.
If one of our executive officers were forced to sell shares of our common stock that he has pledged to secure certain personal loan obligations, such sales could cause our stock price to decline.
Certain banking institutions have made extensions of credit to Jack Hightower, our Chief Executive Officer, a portion of which was used to purchase shares of common stock in the public market and in certain of our public offerings and private placements at the same prices offered to third-party participants in such offerings and placements. We are not a party to these loans, which are primarily secured by pledges of 3,591,017 shares of our common stock currently owned directly by Mr. Hightower and 6,624,005 shares of HighPeak common stock held indirectly by Mr. Hightower via his interests in HighPeak Energy Partners, LP and HighPeak Energy Partners GP, LP. If the price of our common stock were to decline or such loans were to reach maturity without renewal, Mr. Hightower may be forced by one or more of the banking institutions to sell, or the applicable banking institution may elect to sell, shares of HighPeak common stock or interests in the HighPeak funds (and such HighPeak shares owned by such funds may be distributed and sold in order to avoid foreclosure of those interests in the HighPeak funds) to satisfy his applicable loan obligations if he could not do so through other means. Any such sales could adversely affect the trading market and trading price of our common stock, as well as significantly reduce Mr. Hightower’s ownership in the Company.
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