Item 1A. Risk Factors
Item 1A. Risk Factors.
Investors should carefully consider the discussion of risks and the other information in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, in Part I, Item 1A, “Risk Factors,” and the discussion of risks and other information in Part I, Item 2, “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations,” under “Cautionary Information Regarding Forward-Looking Statements,” of this report. Although we have attempted to discuss key factors, our investors need to be aware that other risks may prove to be important in the future. New risks may emerge at any time and we cannot predict such risks or estimate the extent to which they may affect our financial performance. The following risk factors supplement and/or update risk factors previously disclosed and should be considered in conjunction with the other information included in, or incorporated by reference in, this quarterly report on Form 10-Q.
We are exposed to credit risk that could result in losses or affect our ability to make payments should a counterparty fail to perform according to the terms of our agreement.
We are exposed to credit risk from a variety of customers, counterparties, including major integrated oil companies, large independent refiners, petroleum wholesalers, marketing companies and other ethanol plants. We are also exposed to credit risk with major suppliers of petroleum products and agricultural inputs when we make payments for undelivered inventories. Our fixed-price forward contracts are subject to credit risk when prices change significantly prior to delivery. The inability by a third party to pay us for our sales, provide product that was paid for in advance or deliver on a fixed-price contract could result in a loss and adversely impact our liquidity and ability to make our own payments when due.
If the United States were to withdraw from or materially modify certain international trade agreements, our business, financial condition, liquidity and results of operations could be materially adversely affected.
Ethanol and other products that we produce are or have been exported to Canada, Mexico, Brazil, China and other countries. In a previous term, the Trump administration significantly increased tariffs on goods imported into the United States, which in turn led to retaliatory actions on U.S. exports. In early 2025, the Trump administration announced additional tariffs on various imports from China, Mexico, and Canada, and signaled a willingness to renegotiate or withdraw from existing trade agreements. These actions have prompted actual or threatened retaliatory measures against U.S. exports, including ethanol and agricultural products in some cases. The outcome of trade negotiations or lack thereof, has had and/or may continue to have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.
The products we buy and sell are subject to price volatility and uncertainty.
Our operating results are highly sensitive to commodity prices.
Corn. We are generally unable to pass increased corn costs to our customers since ethanol competes with other fuels. We continue to see considerable volatility in corn prices. Ethanol plants, livestock industries and other corn-consuming enterprises put significant price pressure on local corn markets. In addition, local corn supplies and prices could be adversely affected by, but not limited to: prices for alternative crops, increasing pricing for seed corn, fertilizers, crop protection products and other input costs; changes in government policies, including crop insurance, conservation programs, regulation of farmland, and other regulations; shifts in global supply and demand; global political or economic issues, including but not limited to the war in Ukraine including sanctions associated therewith; other global conflicts; and global or regional growing conditions, such as plant disease, pests or adverse weather, including drought.
Ethanol . Our revenues are dependent on market prices for ethanol which can be volatile as a result of a number of factors, including but not limited to: the price and availability of competing fuels and oxygenates for fuels; the domestic and global supply and demand for ethanol, gasoline and corn; the price of gasoline, crude oil and corn; global political or economic issues, including but not limited to the war in Ukraine including sanctions associated therewith, other global conflicts; and domestic and foreign government policies that impact the supply, demand and pricing of corn, crude oil, gasoline, ethanol and other liquid fuels.
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Ethanol is marketed as a fuel additive that reduces vehicle emissions, an economical source of octane and, to a lesser extent, as a gasoline substitute through higher blends such as E15 and E85. Consequently, gasoline supply and demand can affect the price of ethanol. Should gasoline prices or demand change significantly, our results of operations could be materially impacted.
Ethanol imports also affect domestic supply and demand. Imported ethanol is not subject to an import tariff under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), provided it satisfies the agreement’s rules of origin, which are required for preferential tariff treatment. As of early 2025, denatured ethanol for fuel use imported from Brazil and other countries subject to Most Favored Nation treatment is generally subject to a 1.9% ad valorem tariff, while undenatured ethanol is subject to a 2.5% ad valorem tariff. However, a series of executive orders issued in March and April of 2025 have introduced or proposed significant changes to U.S. trade policy, including a baseline 10% tariff on a broad range of imported goods, unless replaced by higher country-specific rates. These developments have created uncertainty around ethanol import pricing and raised the risk of retaliatory trade measures. We continue to monitor potential adjustments to tariff levels or exemptions as trade negotiations evolve. Under the RFS, sugarcane ethanol from Brazil can be used as a means for obligated parties to meet the advanced biofuel standard in addition to state level low-carbon fuel standards. Brazil is also rapidly expanding corn and corn ethanol production, which can have a lower CI score if it is produced from the second crop or “Safrinha” crop, which could be imported into the U.S. or displace our exports elsewhere globally.
Distillers Grains . Distillers grains compete with other protein-based animal feed products. Downward pressure on other commodity prices, such as corn, wheat, soybeans, soybean meal, and other feed ingredients, will generally cause the price of competing animal feed products to decline, resulting in downward pressure on the price of distillers grains. Occasionally, the price of distillers grains will lag behind fluctuations in corn or other feedstock prices, lowering our cost recovery percentage. Additionally, exports of distiller grains could be impacted by the enactment of foreign policy, or expanded production of soybean meal or distillers grains elsewhere.
Natural Gas. The price and availability of natural gas are subject to volatile market conditions. These market conditions are often affected by factors beyond our control, such as weather, drilling economics, overall economic conditions and government regulations. Significant disruptions in natural gas supply could impair our ability to produce ethanol. Furthermore, increases in natural gas prices or changes in our cost relative to our competitors cannot be passed on to our customers, which may adversely affect our results of operations and financial position.
Ultra-High Protein. Our Ultra-High Protein has unique nutritional advantages and a higher protein concentration than soybean meal and can be included in a variety of feed rations in the pet, dairy, swine, poultry and aquaculture industries. As a value-added feed ingredient, quality control is imperative. Demand for feed products and pricing pressure from competing feed products may result in downward pressure on the price of Ultra-High Protein. Reliable production of Ultra-High Protein from both consistent operations of the biorefinery as well as the MSC™ technology is necessary to produce anticipated volumes. Changes in our customers willingness to accept these ingredients, inconsistency in production volumes, quality or downward pressure on prices could result in adverse impact on our business and profitability.
Renewable Corn Oil. Renewable corn oil is generally marketed as a low-carbon feedstock for biofuel production including renewable diesel, biodiesel and currently to a lesser extent, sustainable aviation fuel; therefore, the price of renewable corn oil is largely driven by demand for renewable diesel and biodiesel. Expanded demand from the renewable diesel and biodiesel industry due to the extended blending tax credit, new tax credits included in the IRA and growing LCFS markets in California, Oregon, Washington state or Canada, as well as customer acceptance for such fuels could impact renewable corn oil demand. In general, renewable corn oil prices follow the prices of heating oil and soybean oil, though LCFS programs incentivize the lower CI of renewable corn oil as a feedstock relative to soybean oil. Federal incentives for sustainable aviation fuel also provide higher credit values for lower CI. Other feedstocks such as used cooking oil and animal fats and tallows are scored at a lower CI than renewable corn oil under most life cycle assessment models, and these feedstocks may be preferred to renewable corn oil. Increased imports of used cooking oil could pressure all vegetable oil values lower. Decreases in the price of or demand for renewable corn oil could have an adverse impact on our business and profitability. While we believe our investments in MSC™ and other technologies have allowed us to capture more renewable corn oil from each bushel, these yields could be negatively impacted by any number of factors.