Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk (Continued)
FORD CREDIT MARKET RISK
Market risk for Ford Credit is the possibility that changes in interest and currency exchange rates will adversely affect cash flow and economic value.
Interest Rate Risk . Generally, Ford Credit’s assets and the related debt have different re-pricing periods, and consequently, respond differently to changes in interest rates.
Ford Credit’s assets consist primarily of fixed-rate retail financing and operating lease contracts and floating-rate wholesale receivables. Fixed-rate retail financing and operating lease contracts generally require customers to make equal monthly payments over the life of the contract. Wholesale receivables are originated to finance new and used vehicles held in dealers’ inventory and generally require dealers to pay a floating rate.
Debt consists primarily of short- and long-term unsecured and securitized debt. Ford Credit’s term debt instruments are principally fixed-rate and require fixed and equal interest payments over the life of the instrument and a single principal payment at maturity.
Ford Credit’s interest rate risk management objective is to reduce volatility in its cash flows and volatility in its economic value from changes in interest rates based on an established risk tolerance that may vary by market. Ford Credit uses economic value sensitivity analysis and re-pricing gap analysis to evaluate potential long-term effects of changes in interest rates. It then enters into interest rate swaps to convert portions of its floating-rate debt to fixed or its fixed-rate debt to floating to ensure that Ford Credit’s exposure falls within the established tolerances. Ford Credit also uses pre-tax cash flow sensitivity analysis to monitor the level of near-term cash flow exposure. The pre-tax cash flow sensitivity analysis measures the changes in expected cash flows associated with Ford Credit’s interest-rate-sensitive assets, liabilities, and derivative financial instruments from hypothetical changes in interest rates over a twelve-month horizon. Interest rate swaps are placed to maintain exposure within approved thresholds and the Asset-Liability Committee reviews the re-pricing mismatch monthly.
To provide a quantitative measure of the sensitivity of its pre-tax cash flow to changes in interest rates, Ford Credit uses interest rate scenarios that assume a hypothetical, instantaneous increase or decrease of one percentage point in all interest rates across all maturities (a “parallel shift”), as well as a base case that assumes that all interest rates remain constant at existing levels. In reality, interest rate changes are rarely instantaneous or parallel and rates could move more or less than the one percentage point assumed in Ford Credit’s analysis. As a result, the actual impact to pre-tax cash flow could be higher or lower than the results detailed in the table below. These interest rate scenarios are purely hypothetical and do not represent Ford Credit’s view of future interest rate movements.
Under these interest rate scenarios, Ford Credit expects more assets than debt and liabilities to re-price in the next twelve months. Other things being equal, this means that during a period of rising interest rates, the interest received on Ford Credit’s assets will increase more than the interest paid on Ford Credit’s debt, thereby initially increasing Ford Credit’s pre-tax cash flow. During a period of falling interest rates, Ford Credit would expect its pre-tax cash flow to initially decrease. Ford Credit’s pre-tax cash flow sensitivity to interest rate movement at December 31 was as follows (in millions):
Pre-Tax Cash Flow Sensitivity
2022 2023
One percentage point instantaneous increase in interest rates
$ 127 $ 78
One percentage point instantaneous decrease in interest rates
(127) (78)
While the sensitivity analysis presented is Ford Credit’s best estimate of the impacts of the specified assumed interest rate scenarios, its actual results could differ from those projected. The model Ford Credit uses to conduct this analysis is heavily dependent on assumptions. Embedded in the model are assumptions regarding the reinvestment of maturing asset principal, refinancing of maturing debt, replacement of maturing derivatives, exercise of options embedded in debt and derivatives, and predicted repayment of retail financing and operating lease contracts ahead of contractual maturity. Ford Credit’s repayment projections ahead of contractual maturity are based on historical experience. If interest rates or other factors change, Ford Credit’s actual prepayment experience could be different than projected.
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Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk (Continued)
Foreign Currency Risk. Ford Credit’s policy is to minimize exposure to changes in currency exchange rates. To meet funding objectives, Ford Credit borrows in a variety of currencies, principally U.S. dollars, Canadian dollars, euros, sterling, and renminbi. Ford Credit faces exposure to currency exchange rates if a mismatch exists between the currency of receivables and the currency of the debt funding those receivables. When possible, receivables are funded with debt in the same currency, minimizing exposure to exchange rate movements. When a different currency is used, Ford Credit may use foreign currency swaps and foreign currency forwards to convert substantially all of its foreign currency debt obligations to the local country currency of the receivables. As a result of this policy, Ford Credit believes its market risk exposure, relating to changes in currency exchange rates at December 31, 2023, is insignificant.
Derivative Fair Values. The net fair value of Ford Credit’s derivative financial instruments at December 31, 2023 was a liability of $1.3 billion, compared to a liability of $2.0 billion at December 31, 2022.
COUNTERPARTY RISK
Counterparty risk relates to the loss we could incur if an obligor or counterparty defaulted on an investment or a derivative contract. We enter into master agreements with counterparties that allow netting of certain exposures in order to manage this risk. Exposures primarily relate to investments in fixed income instruments and derivative contracts used for managing interest rate, foreign currency exchange rate, and commodity price risk. We, together with Ford Credit, establish exposure limits for each counterparty to minimize risk and provide counterparty diversification.
Our approach to managing counterparty risk is forward-looking and proactive, allowing us to take risk mitigation actions before risks become losses. Exposure limits are established based on our overall risk tolerance, which is calculated from counterparty credit ratings and market-based credit default swap (“CDS”) spreads. The exposure limits are lower for smaller and lower-rated counterparties, counterparties that have relatively higher CDS spreads, and for longer dated exposures. Our exposures are monitored on a regular basis and included in periodic reports to our Treasurer.
Substantially all of our counterparty exposures are with counterparties that have an investment grade rating. Investment grade is our guideline for minimum counterparty long-term ratings.