Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
The primary components of our market risk are related to interest rate risk, prepayment risk, and credit risk. We seek to actively manage these and other risks and to acquire and hold assets that we believe justify bearing those risks, and to maintain capital levels consistent with those risks.
Credit Risk
We are subject to credit risk in connection with certain of our assets, especially our corporate CLOs. Credit losses can occur on our CLO investments. The corporate loans and other corporate credit assets underlying our CLO investments will typically be rated below investment grade and, as a result, involve greater credit and liquidity risk than investment grade corporate credit obligations and hence may carry a greater risk of default, especially during recessionary environments. These underlying assets will generally be floating rate in nature, and as a result, can suffer from weaker abilities to service debt costs in higher interest rate environments, increasing credit risks on the CLO investments.
While most of the assets underlying our CLO investments are expected to be senior secured and first lien in nature, CLOs also invest, in some cases, in subordinated obligations that do not have first priority claims in the event of a default by their related obligors. Our CLO investments will typically be in subordinated positions within the CLO capital structure with respect to realized losses, and the leveraged nature of the CLO vehicle amplifies the negative impact of any collateral losses.
For our CLO credit risk, the two primary components of such credit risk are default risk and severity risk.
Default Risk
Default risk for a CLO is the risk that the corporate borrowers of the underlying debt obligations fail to make principal and interest payments. We may selectively attempt to mitigate our default risk by, among other things, opportunistically entering into credit hedging transactions, utilizing instruments such as credit default swaps. These instruments can reference various corporate bond indices or corporate entities, and they may also be derivative contracts such as options or tranches on said indices or entities.
Severity Risk
Severity risk for a CLO is the risk of loss upon a default on an underlying debt obligation. Severity risk includes the risk of loss of value of the asset, if any, securing the debt obligation, as well as the risk of loss associated with taking over the asset, if any. With corporate debt, if a company declares bankruptcy, the bankruptcy process has a number of significant inherent risks. Many events in a bankruptcy proceeding are the product of contested matters and adversarial proceedings and are beyond the control of the creditors. A bankruptcy filing by a company whose debt we have purchased may adversely and permanently affect such company. If the proceeding results in liquidation, the liquidation value of the company may have deteriorated significantly from what we believed to be the case at the time of our initial investment. The duration of a bankruptcy proceeding is also difficult to predict, and our return on investment can be adversely affected by delays until a plan of reorganization or liquidation ultimately becomes effective. A bankruptcy court may also re-characterize our debt investment as equity, and subordinate all or a portion of our claim to that of other creditors. This could occur even if our investment had initially been structured as senior debt.
Interest Rate Risk
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Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors, including governmental monetary and tax policies, domestic and international economic and political considerations, and other factors beyond our control. We are subject to interest rate risk in connection with most of our assets and liabilities. For some securities in our portfolio, the coupon interest rates on such securities are sensitive to interest rate movements, such as floating rate CLO debt tranches. Our repurchase agreements generally have maturities of up to 364 days and carry interest rates that are determined by reference to a benchmark rate such SOFR for those same periods. Whenever one of our fixed-rate repo borrowings matures, it will generally be replaced with a new fixed-rate repo borrowing based on market interest rates prevailing at such time. We opportunistically hedge our interest rate risk by entering into interest rate swaps, TBAs, U.S. Treasury securities, U.S. Treasury futures, and other instruments.
In addition to measuring and mitigating the risk related to changes in interest rates with respect to the generally shorter-term liabilities we incur to acquire and hold generally longer-lived RMBS and CLOs, we also monitor the effect of changes in interest rates on the discounted present value of our portfolio of assets and liabilities. The following sensitivity analysis table shows the estimated impact on the fair value of our portfolio segregated by certain identified categories as of March 31, 2025, assuming a static portfolio and immediate and parallel shifts in interest rates from current levels as indicated below.
($ In thousands) Estimated Change for a Decrease in Interest Rates by Estimated Change for an Increase in Interest Rates by
50 Basis Points 100 Basis Points 50 Basis Points 100 Basis Points
Category of Instruments Market Value % of Total Equity Market Value % of Total Equity Market Value % of Total Equity Market Value % of Total Equity
Agency RMBS, and CMBS excluding TBAs $ 9,849 4.31 % $ 18,020 7.89 % $ (11,526) (5.04) % $ (24,729) (10.82) %
Short TBAs (10,181) (4.46) % (18,688) (8.18) % 11,853 5.19 % 25,378 11.11 %
CLOs 413 0.18 % 826 0.37 % (414) (0.18) % (828) (0.37) %
Corporate Securities and Derivatives on Corporate Securities (6) — % (12) (0.01) % 6 — % 12 0.01 %
Repurchase and Reverse Repurchase Agreements (101) (0.04) % (203) (0.09) % 101 0.04 % 203 0.09 %
Total $ (26) (0.01) % $ (57) (0.02) % $ 20 0.01 % $ 36 0.02 %
The preceding analysis does not show sensitivity to changes in interest rates for instruments for which we believe that the effect of a change in interest rates is not material to the value of the overall portfolio and/or cannot be accurately estimated. In particular, this analysis excludes certain of our holdings of CLOs, corporate securities, and derivatives on corporate securities, and reflects only sensitivity to U.S. interest rates.
Our analysis of interest rate risk is derived from Ellington's proprietary models as well as third-party information and analytics. Many assumptions have been made in connection with the calculations set forth in the table above and, as such, there can be no assurance that assumed events will occur or that other events will not occur that would affect the outcomes. For example, for each hypothetical immediate shift in interest rates, assumptions have been made as to many important factors that can significantly and/or adversely affect the fair value of the instruments in our portfolio, including the response of mortgage prepayment rates, the shape of the yield curve, and market volatilities of interest rates. Furthermore, the fair value of each of the instruments comprising our portfolio is impacted by many other factors, each of which may or may not be correlated, or may only be loosely correlated, with interest rates. Depending on the nature of the instrument, these additional factors may include credit spreads, yield spreads, option-adjusted spreads, real estate prices, collateral adequacy, borrower creditworthiness, inflation, unemployment, general macroeconomic conditions, and other factors. For each instrument, our analysis makes many simplifying assumptions as to the response of these additional factors to shifts in interest rates, including that many if not most such factors are unaffected by such shifts.
The above analysis utilizes assumptions and estimates based on management's judgment and experience, and relies on financial models, which are inherently imperfect; in fact, different models can produce different results for the same instruments. While the table above reflects the estimated impacts of immediate parallel interest rate increases and decreases on specific categories of instruments in our portfolio, we actively trade many of the instruments in our portfolio, and therefore our current or future portfolios may have risks that differ significantly from those of our March 31, 2025 portfolio estimated above. Moreover, the impact of changing interest rates on fair value can change significantly when interest rates change by a greater amount than the hypothetical shifts assumed above.
For all of the foregoing reasons and others, the table above is for illustrative purposes only and actual changes in interest
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rates would likely cause changes in the actual fair value of our portfolio that would differ from those presented above, and such differences might be significant and adverse. See "—Special Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements."
Prepayment Risk
Prepayment risk is the risk of change, whether an increase or a decrease, in the rate at which principal is returned in respect of our RMBS and CLOs, including both through voluntary prepayments by the underlying mortgage or corporate borrowers, through liquidations or other accelerations due to defaults and foreclosures, or through the optional redemptions of such securities by the issuers. Most significantly, our RMBS portfolio is exposed to the risk of changes in prepayment rates of the mortgage loans underlying our RMBS, and our CLO portfolio is exposed to the changes in prepayment rates of the underlying corporate loans. These prepayment rates are affected by a variety of factors, including the prevailing level of interest rates as well as economic, demographic, tax, social, legal, and other factors. Mortgage prepayment rates can be highly sensitive to changes in interest rates, but they are also affected by housing turnover, which can be driven by factors other than interest rates, including worker mobility and home price appreciation. Changes in prepayment rates will have varying effects on the different types of securities in our portfolio, and we attempt to take these effects into account in making asset management decisions. Increases in prepayment rates may cause us to experience both realized and unrealized losses on our interest-only securities, or "IOs," and inverse interest only securities, or "IIOs," as these securities are extremely sensitive to prepayment rates. Conversely, decreases in prepayment rates on our securities with below-market interest rates may cause the duration of such securities to extend, which may cause us to experience unrealized losses on such securities. Prepayment rates, besides being subject to interest rates and borrower behavior, are also substantially affected by government policy and regulation. For example, mortgage prepayment rates are generally lower in states with substantially higher mortgage recording taxes.
Liquidity Risk
To fund our assets, in addition to using equity capital, we may use a variety of debt alternatives, each of which may present us with liquidity risks. Certain of our assets are long-term fixed-rate assets, and we become exposed to liquidity by funding these assets with shorter-term variable rate borrowings. We seek to manage these risks, including by maintaining a prudent level of leverage, implementing interest rate hedges, maintaining sources of long-term financing, monitoring our liquidity position on a daily basis, monitoring the ongoing financial stability and future business plans of our financing counterparties, and maintaining a reasonable cushion of cash and unpledged securities in our portfolio in order to meet future margin calls.
We pledge assets, including MBS and CLOs, as collateral to secure most of our financing arrangements. However, should the value of our collateral or the value of our derivative instruments suddenly decrease, or margin requirements increase, we may be required to post additional collateral for certain of these arrangements, causing an adverse change in our liquidity position. Furthermore, there is no assurance that we will always be able to renew (or roll) our short-term funding liabilities at their scheduled maturities, which could materially harm our liquidity position and result in substantial losses. In addition, in some cases our counterparties have the option to increase our haircuts (margin requirements) on the assets we pledge against our funding liabilities, thereby reducing the amount that can be borrowed against an asset even if they agree to renew or roll our funding liabilities. Significantly higher haircuts would require us to post additional collateral and could reduce our ability to leverage our portfolio or may even force us to sell assets, especially if correlated with asset price declines or faster prepayment rates on our assets.
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