Item 1A. Risk Factors
ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS
Risks Related to Our Company
Adverse economic and market conditions and other events or conditions throughout the world could negatively impact our business in many ways, including by reducing the value or performance of the investments made by our investment funds and reducing the ability of our investment funds to raise capital, any of which could materially reduce our revenue, earnings and cash flow and adversely affect our financial prospects and condition.
Our business is materially affected by conditions in the global financial markets and economic conditions or events throughout the world that are outside of our control, including, but not limited to, changes in interest rates, availability of credit, inflation rates, economic uncertainty, slowdown in global growth, changes in laws (including laws relating to taxation and regulations on the financial industry), disease, pandemics or other severe public health events, trade barriers, commodity prices, currency exchange rates and controls, national and international political circumstances (including government shutdowns, wars, terrorist acts or security operations), geopolitical tensions, social unrest, supply chain pressures, and the effects of climate change. Recently, markets have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. interest rates, inflation, heightened geopolitical tensions (including those between the U.S. and China and between Russia and Ukraine), the imposition of trade barriers, ongoing trade negotiations with major U.S. trading partners and changes in U.S. tax regulations. These conditions, events and factors are outside our control and may affect the level and volatility of securities prices and the liquidity and the value of investments, and we may not be able to or may choose not to manage our exposure to them. In the event of a market downturn, each of our businesses could be affected in different ways.
Over the twelve months ending December 31, 2021, the S&P 500 increased by 27%, while the MSCI All Country World Index (MSCI) rose by 17%. While global markets performed well in the aggregate, developments such as rapidly rising inflation, shifting views on monetary policy, and regulatory actions, drove spikes of volatility and strong rotations out of certain assets which had previously outperformed in 2020. For example the CSI 300 Index fell by 5% in 2021 after strongly outperforming the S&P 500 in 2020, as market participants reacted to government regulatory crackdowns on private enterprise and debt troubles in the property sector. In U.S. markets, interest rate volatility adversely affected the equity performance of companies with longer-duration cash flows; prices of companies in the Nasdaq 100 with no profits fell 20% in 2021, compared with a +27% return for the overall index. Many of these factors, including inflation, interest rates, regulatory and political environments, can be unpredictable so it is possible investor sentiment could change quickly in the future and market volatility could reemerge in the face of negative macro or geopolitical developments. If global markets become unstable, it is possible sellers may readjust their valuations and attractive investment opportunities may become available. On the other hand, the valuations of certain assets we planned to sell in the near future could be negatively impacted, as well as the valuations of our portfolio companies and as a result, our accrued performance revenues.
Market volatility could adversely affect our fundraising efforts in several ways. Investors often allocate to alternative asset classes (including private equity) based on a target percentage of their overall portfolio. If the value of an investor’s portfolio decreases as a whole, the amount available to allocate to alternative assets (including private equity) could decline. Further, investors often evaluate the amount of distributions they have received from existing funds when considering commitments to new funds. Investors may also weigh the likely impact of geopolitical tensions, cross-border regulations and other factors such as general market volatility and/or a reduction in distributions to investors when considering their allocations to new investment funds. A decrease in the amount an investor commits to our funds could have an impact on the ultimate size of our funds and amount of management fees we generate.
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The availability and cost of financing for significant acquisition and disposition transactions could be impacted if equity and credit markets experience heightened volatility. For example, in the United States, high yield credit spreads rose by nearly 750 basis points (bps) during the first quarter of 2020 on fears around the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. If credit markets weaken again in the future, it is possible that we and our investment funds may not be able to consummate significant acquisition and disposition transactions on acceptable terms or at all if we or our funds are unable to finance these types of transactions on attractive terms or if the counterparty to the transaction is unable to secure suitable financing. If there is a general slowdown in global merger and acquisition activity due to the lack of availability of suitable financing or an increase in risk aversion and uncertainty, this could cause a slowdown in our investment pace, which in turn could have an adverse impact on our ability to generate future performance revenues and to fully invest the available capital in our funds and reduce opportunities to exit and realize value from our fund investments. A slowdown in the deployment of our available capital could impact the management fees we earn on those carry funds and managed accounts that generate fees based on invested (and not committed) capital. A slowdown in the deployment of our available capital could also adversely affect our ability to raise and the timing of raising successor investment funds. In 2021, we invested nearly $34 billion through our carry funds.
The current U.S. political environment and the resulting uncertainties regarding actual and potential shifts in U.S. foreign investment, trade, taxation, economic, environmental and other policies under the current Administration, as well as the impact of geopolitical tension, such as a deterioration in the bilateral relationship between the U.S. and China or an escalation in conflict between Russia and Ukraine, could lead to disruption, instability and volatility in the global markets, which may also have an impact on our exit opportunities across negatively impacted sectors or geographies. The consequences of previously enacted legislation could also impact our business operations in the future. For example, bipartisan legislation enacted in August 2018 has significantly increased and may continue to significantly increase the number and types of investment transactions that are subject to the jurisdiction of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (“CFIUS”). Under the final regulations implementing the reform legislation, which became effective in October 2020, CFIUS has the authority to review, and potentially recommend that the President unwind, block or impose conditions on certain non-controlling foreign investments in U.S. businesses that deal in certain ways with “critical technology,” “critical infrastructure” and/or “sensitive personal data” of U.S. citizens (as those terms are defined in the regulations). CFIUS’ expanded jurisdiction may reduce the number of potential buyers of and investors in U.S. companies, and accordingly, may limit the ability of our funds to realize value and/or exit from certain existing and future investments. Our flexibility in structuring or financing certain transactions may likewise be constrained and we are unable to predict whether and to what extent uncertainty surrounding economic and market conditions or adverse conditions or events in particular sectors may cause our performance to suffer. The current Administration may also pursue tax policies seeking to increase the corporate tax rate and further limit the deductibility of interest and compensation, or materially alter the taxation of capital gains, among other things. Such changes could materially increase the taxes imposed on us or our funds’ portfolio companies. See “—Risks Related to Taxation—Changes in relevant tax laws, regulations or treaties or an adverse interpretation of these items by tax authorities could negatively impact our effective tax rate and tax liability.” In addition, negative public sentiment could lead to heightened scrutiny and criticisms of our business and investments.
During periods of difficult market conditions or slowdowns (which may occur across one or more industries or geographies), our funds’ portfolio companies may experience adverse operating performance, decreased revenues, financial losses, credit rating downgrades, difficulty in obtaining access to financing and increased funding costs. Negative financial results in our funds’ portfolio companies may result in less appreciation across the portfolio and lower returns in our funds. Because our investment funds will generally make a limited number of investments, and such investments generally involve a high degree of risk, negative financial results in a few of an investment fund’s portfolio companies could severely impact the fund’s total returns. This could materially and adversely affect our ability to raise new funds as well as our operating results and cash flow. During such periods of weakness, our funds’ portfolio companies may also have difficulty expanding their businesses and operations or meeting their debt service obligations or other expenses as they become due, including expenses payable to us. Furthermore, such negative market conditions could potentially result in a portfolio company entering bankruptcy proceedings, or in the case of certain real estate funds, the abandonment or foreclosure of investments, thereby potentially resulting in a complete loss of the fund’s investment in such portfolio company or real assets and a significant negative impact to the fund’s performance and consequently our operating results and cash flow, as well as to our reputation. In addition, negative market conditions would also increase the risk of default with respect to investments held by our funds that have significant debt investments, such as our Global Credit funds.
Finally, during periods of difficult market conditions or slowdowns, our fund investment performance could suffer, resulting in, for example, the payment of less or no performance revenues to us or the creation of the obligation to repay performance revenues previously received by us. The payment of less or no performance revenues could cause our cash flow from operations to significantly decrease, which could materially and adversely affect our liquidity position and the amount of cash we have on hand to conduct our operations and to dividend to our stockholders. The generation of less performance revenues could also impact our leverage ratios and compliance with our term loan covenants. Having less cash on hand could in turn require us to rely on other sources of cash (such as the capital markets, which may not be available to us on acceptable
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terms or at all) to conduct our operations, which include, for example, funding significant general partner and co-investment commitments to our carry funds. Furthermore, during adverse economic and market conditions, we might not be able to renew or refinance all or part of our credit facility or find alternate financing on commercially reasonable terms. As a result, our uses of cash may exceed our sources of cash, thereby potentially affecting our liquidity position.
The global pandemic of the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, caused severe disruptions in the U.S. and global economies and has impacted, and may continue to impact our performance and results of operations.
In 2020, the global outbreak of COVID-19 spread to every country and every state in the United States. The World Health Organization designated COVID-19 as a pandemic, and numerous countries, including the United States, declared national emergencies with respect to COVID-19. While vaccines have been approved and are being deployed, the global impact of the outbreak continues to adversely impact many industries and different geographies continue to be impacted by the effects of public health restrictions in various ways. The International Monetary Fund estimates that aggregate output for advanced economies may return to pre-pandemic trend levels in 2022, whereas output for emerging market and developing economies, excluding China, may remain below the pre-pandemic forecast into 2024. The timing and likelihood of achieving widespread global vaccination remains uncertain, and the vaccines may be less effective against new variants, potentially leading people to continue to isolate and not participate in the economy at pre-pandemic levels for a prolonged period of time, further delaying the return of the global economy to pre-pandemic levels.
While our fears of a great depression at the onset of the pandemic have not today been realized, the economic recovery is only partially underway, and has been gradual, uneven and characterized by meaningful dispersion across sectors and regions with uncertainty regarding the ultimate length and trajectory. Further, although many jurisdictions had relaxed or lifted restrictions in an effort to generate more economic activity, the risk of continued COVID-19 outbreaks and new variants remains, and jurisdictions have begun to re-impose restrictions in an effort to mitigate risks to public health, especially as more infectious variants of the virus emerge. Increasing infection rates and hospitalizations in certain geographies and a potential resulting market downturn has resulted in COVID-19 continuing to impact our business, financial condition, results of operations, liquidity and prospects.
• Portfolio Company Performance. Some of our investments are in industries that have been materially impacted by the effects of COVID-19 and has resulted, and may continue to result in, material reductions in value in certain instances. In particular, many portfolio companies in the energy, infrastructure, healthcare, travel, entertainment, hospitality, and retail industries faced, and some continue to face operational and financial hardships resulting from the spread of COVID-19 and related governmental measures imposed to contain the virus, such as the closure of stores, restrictions on travel, quarantines or stay-at-home orders. If the disruptions caused by the pandemic continue, the businesses of these portfolio companies could suffer materially or become insolvent, which would decrease the value of our funds’ investments and potentially harm our reputation.
• Portfolio Company Liquidity. Certain portfolio companies are facing or may face in the future increased credit and liquidity risk due to volatility in financial markets, reduced revenue streams, and limited or higher cost of access to preferred sources of funding, which may result in potential impairment of our or our funds’ equity investments. Changes in the debt financing markets have impacted or may in the future impact, the ability of our portfolio companies to meet their respective financial obligations. In addition, borrowers of loans, notes and other credit instruments in our credit funds’ portfolios may be unable to meet their principal or interest payment obligations or satisfy financial covenants, and tenants leasing real estate properties owned by our funds may not be able to pay rents in a timely manner or at all, resulting in a decrease in value of our funds’ credit and real estate investments and lower than expected returns. In addition, for variable interest instruments, lower reference rates resulting from government stimulus programs in response to COVID-19 has already caused and could lead to lower interest income for our credit funds.
• Operational Risks. Travel restrictions, the closure of non-essential businesses and shelter-in-place/stay-at-home orders have made it more difficult and costly for our investment teams to conduct due diligence and consummate the acquisition and disposition of investments for our funds. Our global employee base started working remotely at the start of the pandemic and we transitioned to a hybrid model during 2021, subject to local conditions across our global office locations. Due to the prevalence of highly infectious new variants, we have experienced periods of returning to a fully remote work environment at various times. This extended period of remote working as well as periods of transition between fully remote and hybrid work models by our employees may introduce operational risks, including technology availability and heightened cybersecurity risk. Remote working environments may be less secure and more susceptible to hacking attacks, including phishing and social engineering attempts that seek to exploit the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, our data security, data privacy, investor reporting and business continuity processes could be impacted by a third party’s inability to perform due to COVID-19 or by failures of, or attacks on, their information systems and technology. Our accounting and financial reporting systems, processes, and controls could be impacted as a result of these risks.
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• Employee-Related Risks. Although our employees have demonstrated their ability to achieve our pre-pandemic levels of productivity while working remotely, COVID-19 continues to present a significant threat to our employees’ well-being and morale. Our key employees or executive officers may become sick or otherwise unable to perform their duties for an extended period of time and we may experience a potential loss of productivity. The same could happen to the employees in our portfolio companies, as well as our third-party service providers. In addition, an extended remote work environment could adversely affect our One Carlyle culture. Our employees continue to collaborate across offices and geographies, but the informal office interactions that contribute to our culture are not as prevalent in a remote work environment and may be lessened even in a hybrid environment due to different employees working in the office on different days of the week. It is also harder to integrate new employees into the firm in a remote working environment.
• Regulatory and Litigation Risks. Costly litigation could increase in connection with merger and acquisition transactions, as parties to such transactions explore ways to avoid transactions by the assertion of claims of force majeure, material adverse change in the condition of target investments, and/or fraudulent misrepresentation.
• Taxation Risk as a Result of Mobility Challenges. As a result of travel restrictions, stay-at-home orders and similar measures, many of our staff are unable to travel for physical meetings and/or have been displaced working remotely outside of their normal work location. This may create taxable presence or residency risks for our corporate entities and professionals as well as our funds and portfolio companies. Ultimately, these risks could lead to increased levels of taxation and additional compliance complexities.
In addition to the foregoing, COVID-19 has exacerbated and may continue to exacerbate, many of the other risks described in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
Changes in the debt financing markets or higher interest rates could negatively impact the ability of certain of our funds and their portfolio companies to obtain attractive financing or re-financing and could increase the cost of such financing if it is obtained, which could lead to lower-yielding investments and could potentially decrease our net income.
A significant contraction or weakening in the market for debt financing or other adverse change relating to the terms of debt financing, including higher interest rates and equity requirements and more restrictive covenants, could have a material adverse impact on our business and that of our investment funds and their portfolio companies. Additionally, in recent years many jurisdictions have introduced (or are considering introducing) new restrictions on the deductibility of interest expense, which could negatively impact the financing of new investments or the operations of our funds’ portfolio companies. Regulatory changes that constrain banks’ ability to provide debt financing also could have a material adverse impact on our business and that of our investment funds and their portfolio companies. Additionally, higher interest rates may create downward pressure on the price of real estate, increase the cost and availability of debt financing for the transactions our funds may pursue and decrease the value of fixed-rate debt investments made by our funds. If our funds are unable to obtain committed debt financing for potential acquisitions or are only able to obtain debt financing at unfavorable interest rates or on unfavorable terms, our funds may have difficulty completing acquisitions that may have otherwise been profitable or if completed, such acquisitions could generate lower than expected profits, each of which could lead to a decrease in our net income. Further, if our ability to deduct corporate interest expense is substantially limited, our funds may face increased competition from strategic buyers of assets who may have an overall lower cost of capital or the ability to benefit from a higher amount of cost savings following an acquisition, which could also lead to a decrease in our net income. In addition, rising interest rates, coupled with periods of significant equity and credit market volatility may potentially make it more difficult for us to find attractive opportunities for our funds to exit and realize value from their existing investments. Any failure by lenders to provide previously committed financing can also expose us to potential claims by sellers of businesses that we may have contracted to purchase.
Our funds’ portfolio companies also regularly utilize the corporate loan and bond markets to obtain financing for their operations. While credit was available for much of 2020 and 2021 and new debt issuance hit record levels in some markets, the onset of the COVID-19 crisis exhibited how abruptly credit markets can weaken from exogenous shocks and become unavailable or unattractive for issuers. For example, in the first and early second quarters of 2020, corporate debt issuance and merger and acquisition activity decreased significantly as market volatility rose and credit spreads widened. It is possible that during periods of stress, tightening in the credit markets could render debt financing difficult to obtain, less attractive or more expensive. To the extent monetary policy, tax or other regulatory changes or difficult credit markets render such financing difficult to obtain or otherwise less attractive, this may negatively impact the operating performance of our portfolio companies that use debt to fund certain of their operations. This may result in a negative impact on the investment returns of our funds. In addition, to the extent that conditions in the credit markets or tax or other regulatory changes make it difficult or impossible for our investments to refinance or extend maturities on their outstanding debt, either on favorable terms or at all, some of our portfolio companies’ operations may be negatively impacted or our portfolio companies may be unable to repay their debt at maturity or interests when due, and may be forced to sell assets, undergo a recapitalization or seek bankruptcy protection, any
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of which would also likely impair the value of our funds’ portfolio companies and lead to a decrease in investment income earned by us.
Our use of leverage may expose us to substantial risks.
We use indebtedness as a means to finance our business operations, which exposes us to the risks associated with using leverage. We are dependent on financial institutions extending credit to us on reasonable terms to finance our business. There is no guarantee that such institutions will continue to extend credit to us or will renew the existing credit agreements we have with them, or that we will be able to refinance our outstanding notes or other obligations when they mature. In addition, the incurrence of additional debt in the future could result in downgrades of our existing corporate credit ratings, which could limit the availability of future financing and/or increase our cost of borrowing. As borrowings under our credit facility or any other indebtedness mature, we may be required to refinance them by entering into a new facility or issuing additional debt, which could result in higher borrowing costs, or to issue additional equity, which would dilute existing stockholders. We could also repay them by using cash on hand, cash provided by our continuing operations or cash from the sale of our assets, which could reduce dividends to our stockholders. We could have difficulty entering into new facilities or issuing debt or equity securities in the future on attractive terms, or at all.
From time to time we may access the capital markets by issuing debt securities. In May and June 2021 we issued $500 million aggregate principal amount of 4.625% subordinated notes due May 2061. We also have senior notes with an aggregate principal amount of $1,375 million as of December 31, 2021 as well as a credit agreement that provides a $775 million revolving facility with a final maturity date of February 11, 2024 (see Note 6 to the consolidated financial statements in Part II, Item 8 of this Form 10-K for more information regarding our senior and subordinated notes and credit agreements). The credit agreement contains financial and non-financial covenants with which we need to comply to maintain access to this source of liquidity. Non-compliance with any of the financial or non-financial covenants without cure or waiver would constitute an event of default, and an event of default resulting from a breach of certain financial or non-financial covenants could result, at the option of the lenders, in an acceleration of the principal and interest outstanding, and a termination of the credit agreement. In addition, to the extent we incur additional debt relative to our current level of earnings or experience a decrease in our level of earnings, our credit rating could be adversely impacted, which would increase our interest expense under our credit facility. Standard & Poor’s and Fitch each reaffirmed their “BBB+” credit rating and revised our rating outlook from stable to positive in October 2021 and November 2021, respectively.
A significant contraction in the market for debt financing or other adverse change relating to the terms of debt financing, including likely higher interest rates from Federal Reserve actions and equity requirements and more restrictive covenants, could have a material adverse impact on our business and that of our investment funds and their portfolio companies.
Beginning January 1, 2022, U.S. Banks are not allowed to issue any new debt tied to LIBOR. LIBOR will cease to be published at the end of June 2023. Though the Alternative Reference Rates Committee formally recommended the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (“SOFR”) as its preferred alternative rate for LIBOR, there is uncertainty whether there will be universal adoption. See “—The replacement of LIBOR with an alternative reference rate may adversely affect our credit arrangements and our collateralized loan obligation transactions.”
Our revenue, earnings and cash flow are variable, which makes it difficult for us to achieve steady earnings growth on a quarterly basis.
Our revenue, earnings and cash flow are variable. For example, our cash flow fluctuates because we receive carried interest from our carry funds only when investments are realized and achieve a certain preferred return. We may also experience fluctuations in our quarterly and annual results, including our revenue and net income, due to a number of other factors, including changes in the carrying values and performance of our funds’ investments that can result in significant volatility in the carried interest that we have accrued (or as to which we have reversed prior accruals) from period to period, as well as changes in the amount of distributions, gains, dividends or interest paid in respect of investments in our funds and strategic investments (e.g., our investment in Fortitude), changes in our operating expenses, the degree to which we encounter competition and general economic and market conditions. The valuations of investments made by our funds could also be impacted by geopolitical conflict as well as changes, or anticipated changes, in government policy, including policies related to tax reform, financial services regulation, international trade, immigration, environmental, healthcare, labor, infrastructure and energy. For instance, during the first quarter of 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, we recorded significant reductions in the carrying values of many of the investments of the investment funds we advise. The carrying value of fund investments, particularly the public portion of our carry fund portfolios, may be more variable during times of market volatility. As of December 31, 2021, 11% of our Global Private Equity and Global Credit carry fund portfolio was in public securities.
Transaction fees earned in respect of our carry funds can vary from quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year depending on the nature of the investments in any given period. The recognition of transaction fees can be volatile as they are primarily
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generated by investment activity within our funds, and therefore are impacted by both the pace and size of our carry fund investments. We anticipate a general decline in net transaction fees earned from our carry funds as our recently raised products have generally increased the percentage of transaction fees that are shared with fund investors from 80% to 100%, such that a larger share of the transaction fee revenue we retain is driven by co-investment activity. In addition, Carlyle Global Capital Markets (GCM) generates capital markets fees in connection with activities related to the underwriting, issuance and placement of debt and equity securities and loan syndication for our portfolio companies and, to a lesser extent, third-party clients. Capital markets fees generated are typically dependent on transaction frequency and volume, and a slowdown in the pace or size of investments by our carry funds could adversely affect the amount of fees generated by capital markets business. We are seeking to bolster and grow our capital markets business, and associated fee stream, related to the underwriting, issuance, and placement of debt and equity securities and loan syndication for our portfolio companies and, to a lesser extent, third-party clients, which we expect if successful will positively impact capital markets fees over time.
During periods in which a significant portion of our AUM is attributable to carry funds that are in the fundraising period or are in the investment period that precedes harvesting, as has been the case from time to time, we may receive substantially lower distributions. Higher fundraising activity also generates incremental expenses and, as new capital commitments may not immediately generate fees until they activate management fees, we could incur fundraising related costs ahead of generating revenues. Moreover, even if an investment proves to be profitable, it may be several years before any profits can be realized in cash. A downturn in the equity markets also makes it more difficult to exit investments by selling equity securities at a reasonable value. If we were to have a realization event in a particular quarter, that event may have a significant impact on our quarterly results and cash flow for that particular quarter and may not be replicated in subsequent quarters. We cannot predict precisely when, or if, realizations of investments will occur, where a fund will be in its lifecycle when the realizations occur or whether a fund will realize carried interest.
We recognize revenue on investments in our investment funds based on our allocable share of realized and unrealized gains (or losses) reported by such investment funds, and a decline in realized or unrealized gains, or an increase in realized or unrealized losses, would adversely affect our revenue, which could further increase the volatility of our quarterly results and cash flow. Because our carry funds have preferred investor return thresholds that need to be met prior to us receiving any carried interest, declines in, or failures to increase sufficiently the carrying value of, the investment portfolios of a carry fund may delay or eliminate any carried interest distributions paid to us with respect to that fund. This is because the value of the assets in the fund would need to recover to their aggregate cost basis plus the preferred return over time before we would be entitled to receive any carried interest from that fund or vehicle.
The timing and receipt of realized carried interest also varies with the life cycle of our carry funds and there is often a difference between the time we start accruing carried interest for financial reporting purposes and the realization and distribution of such carried interest. However, performance revenues are ultimately realized when an investment is profitably disposed of, certain costs borne by the limited partner investors have been reimbursed, the investment fund’s cumulative net returns are in excess of the preferred return and we have decided to collect carried interest rather than return additional capital to limited partner investors. In deciding to realize carried interest we consider such factors as the level of embedded valuation gains, the portion of the fund invested, the portion of the fund returned to limited partner investors, the length of time the fund has been in carry, and other qualitative measures. In most funds, we will initially defer realizing carried interest even when contractually entitled to take it, allowing carried interest to accrue until it is determined that giveback risk is substantially reduced. As a result of this deferral, we are generally entitled to a disproportionate “catch-up” level of profit allocation at some point during the harvesting period. For example, during the period from late 2013 to early 2015, we benefited from “catch-up” realized carried interest on some of our largest funds, but in 2016 and 2017 we did not benefit from “catch-up” realized carried interest to the extent we had in prior years. In certain circumstances, we may also need to reduce the rate at which we realize carried interest, or temporarily stop realizing carried interest, in order to maintain a sufficient level of reserves and reduce the risk of potential future giveback obligations. In addition to the timing uncertainty of realized carried interest in a single fund, there may also be a generational trough or gap in the realized carried interest of a fund family, as a predecessor fund transitions to its successor fund. In such cases, even when both the predecessor and successor fund have strong performance and earn carried interest, the predecessor fund may substantially exit its investment portfolio before the successor fund is in a sufficient position to begin realizing carried interest. See “—Risks Related to Our Business Operations—Our investors may negotiate to pay us lower management fees and the economic terms of our future funds may be less favorable to us than those of our existing funds, which could adversely affect our revenues.”
Our fee revenue may also depend on the pace of investment activity in our funds. In many of our carry funds, the base management fee may be reduced when the fund has invested substantially all of its capital commitments or the aggregate fair market value of a fund’s investments is below its cost. We may receive a lower management fee from such funds if there has been a decline in value or after the investing period and during the period the fund is harvesting its investments. As a result, the variable pace at which many of our carry funds invest capital and dispose of investments may cause our management fee revenue to vary from one quarter to the next. Additionally, certain funds derive management fees only on the basis of invested capital whereby the pace at which we make investments, the length of time we hold such investment and the timing of dispositions will directly impact our revenues.
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The investment period of a fund may expire prior to the raising of a successor fund. Where appropriate, we may work with our fund investors to extend the investment period, which gives us the opportunity to invest any capital that remains in the fund. In general, the end of the original investment period (regardless of whether it is extended) will trigger a change in the capital base on which management fees are calculated from committed capital to invested capital. In some cases, a step-down in the applicable rate used to calculate management fees may also occur. In addition, we may raise an investment fund and delay the initiation of fees once a fund is raised to better align our management fee inception date to when we are ready to begin investing the fund. While the total amount of management fees collected over the life of a fund would not be impacted, this could result in a delay in receipt of management fees.
We depend on our Chief Executive Officer and other key personnel, and the loss of their services or investor confidence in such personnel could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
We depend on the efforts, skill, reputations and business contacts of our senior Carlyle professionals, including our Chief Executive Officer, Kewsong Lee, and other key personnel, including members of the investment committees of our investment funds and senior members of our investment teams, the information and deal flow they and others generate during the normal course of their activities and the synergies among the diverse fields of expertise and knowledge held by our professionals. We entered into an employment agreement with Mr. Lee in October 2017, which was amended in connection with our Conversion in January 2020, and which will expire pursuant to its terms, unless earlier terminated, on December 31, 2022, unless extended or new arrangements are agreed. Our Chief Executive Officer and other key personnel are not obligated to remain employed with us in their current capacities or at all. To continue to enhance our talent base, we have and will continue to hire and internally develop senior professionals to assume key leadership positions throughout the firm into the future. The availability and efficacy of such future leadership may constitute an adverse risk to our business. While our founders Messrs. Conway and Rubenstein continue to serve as Co-Chairmen of our Board and Mr. D’Aniello serves as Chairman Emeritus and each remains committed to our business and in certain cases serve on various investment committees, in these roles, they are not executive officers and no longer have responsibility for the day-to-day operations of the firm and may choose to pursue philanthropic or other personal endeavors, including personal investment activities, in addition to their roles at Carlyle.
Our senior Carlyle professionals and other key personnel possess substantial experience and expertise and have strong business relationships with investors in our funds and other members of the business community. As a result, the loss of these personnel could jeopardize our relationships with investors in our funds and members of the business community and result in the reduction of AUM or fewer investment opportunities. For example, if any of our senior Carlyle professionals were to join or form a competing firm, that action could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. Several key personnel have left the firm in the past and others may do so in the future, and we cannot predict the impact that the departure of any key personnel will have on our ability to achieve our objectives. The loss of the services of any of our key personnel could have a material adverse effect on our revenues, net income and cash flow and could harm our ability to maintain or grow AUM in existing funds or raise additional funds in the future. The governing agreements of many of our investment funds generally require investors in those funds to vote to continue the investment period in the event that certain “key persons” in our investment funds do not provide the specified time commitment to the fund or our firm ceases to control the general partner.
Recruiting and retaining our professionals has become more difficult and may continue to be difficult in the future, which could adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Our most important asset is our people, and our continued success is highly dependent upon the efforts of our senior Carlyle professionals and other employees. Our future success and growth depends to a substantial degree on our ability to retain and motivate our senior Carlyle professionals, key personnel and other employees to strategically recruit, retain and motivate new talented personnel, including new senior Carlyle professionals. The market for qualified professionals is extremely competitive across levels and areas of expertise, and we may not be successful in our efforts to recruit, retain and motivate these professionals. In connection with the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a shift to a hybrid work model and, in our recruiting efforts, we have seen increased focus by prospective candidates on remote and hybrid work arrangements and arrangements providing more flexibility, including around location. If there is a further shift to a longer-term fully remote model that does not require maintaining close proximity to a company’s offices in the markets in which we compete for talent, we may experience an even further increase in competition for talent and it may be difficult to recruit and retain our professionals. We have also experienced upward pressure on compensation packages given the increased competition to hire and retain talented personnel, and we may be required to adjust the amount of cash compensation and types, terms and amounts of equity incentives we provide to our employees, which could have positive or negative effects on the financial metrics commonly used to measure our performance. Even when we offer top-of-market compensation packages, we may not be able to attract and retain all of our desired personnel due to shifting employee priorities.
For our investment professionals, we have historically relied in part on their interests in our investment funds’ carried interest and incentive fees to discourage them from leaving the firm. However, to the extent our investment funds perform
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poorly, thereby reducing the potential for carried interest and incentive fees, those interests become less valuable to them and may become a less effective retention tool. There are also factors beyond our control that may affect our efforts to recruit, retain and motivate investment professionals, in particular as they relate to tax considerations regarding carried interest. The tax treatment of carried interest has been an area of focus for policymakers and government officials in recent years. For example, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (the “TCJA”) enacted in 2017 generally requires that carried interest satisfy a more-than-three-year holding period (as opposed to a more-than-one-year holding period under prior law) to qualify as long-term capital gain that is taxed at preferential rates for individuals. Congress and the current Administration may consider proposals to treat carried interest as ordinary income rather than as capital gain for tax purposes, to impose a surcharge on carried interest, to further extend the holding period for carried interest to qualify for long-term capital gain treatment, or to increase the capital gains tax rate, each of which could result in a material increase in the amount of taxes that our carry participants would be required to pay. While most proposals regarding the taxation of carried interest require realization of gains before applying ordinary income rates, U.S. federal legislation has been introduced that would require holders of carried interest to recognize a specified amount of deemed compensation income each year regardless of whether the investment partnership recognizes income or gain and regardless of whether and when the holders receive distributions in respect of their carried interests. If the tax treatment of carried interest continues to be an area of focus for policymakers and government officials, it could result in further regulatory action by federal, state, or non-U.S. governments. For example, certain states, including New York and California, have proposed legislation to levy additional state tax on carried interest. We have seen similar policy discussions in respect of the appropriate treatment of carried interest in many of the international jurisdictions in which we have investment professionals. The additional pressures of fiscal deficits created as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic have heightened these risks as international authorities consider ways to increase tax revenues. Such legislative and regulatory changes that modify the tax treatment of carried interest could make it more difficult for us to incentivize, recruit and retain investment professionals, which may have an adverse effect on our ability to achieve our investment objectives and thereby reduce the after-tax income and gain related to our business, our distributions to stockholders and the market price of our shares.
We have granted and expect to grant equity awards from our Equity Incentive Plan, which has caused dilution. While we evaluate the grant of equity awards from our Equity Incentive Plan to employees on an annual basis, the size of the grants, if any, is made at our discretion. If we increase the use of equity awards from our Equity Incentive Plan in the future, expenses associated with equity-based compensation may increase materially. In 2021, we incurred equity compensation expenses of $163.1 million in connection with grants of restricted stock units. The value of our common stock may drop in value or be volatile, which may make our equity less attractive to our employees since we may not be able to adequately incentivize them.
As of December 31, 2021, our employees held an aggregate of 14.8 million unvested restricted stock units, which vest over various time periods (generally from six months to four years from the date of grant) and/or subject to the achievement of various performance targets. All of the shares of common stock held by our founders are fully vested. In order to recruit and retain existing and future senior Carlyle professionals and other key personnel, we may need to increase the level of compensation that we pay to them, which could include grants of significant amounts of restricted stock awards under our Equity Incentive Program. Accordingly, as we promote or hire new senior Carlyle professionals and other key personnel over time or attempt to retain the services of certain of our key personnel, we may increase the level of compensation we pay to these individuals, which could cause our total employee compensation and benefits expense as a percentage of our total revenue to increase and adversely affect our profitability. For example, in 2021, we granted 7.1 million restricted stock units to certain senior Carlyle professionals, the majority of which are subject to vesting based on the achievement of annual performance targets over four years, which will increase our equity-based compensation expense in the coming years. Additionally, in February 2021, in order to further foster the alignment of our carry participants, in particular our senior investment professionals, with our stockholders, the Compensation Committee approved a new program whereby, at Carlyle’s discretion, up to 20% of a carry participant’s realized proceeds over a threshold amount may be distributed in fully vested, new shares of our common stock under our Equity Incentive Plan. Over the first two years of the program, which commenced during the fourth quarter of 2021, up to $100 million in common shares may be issued in lieu of distributing carried interest all in cash. This program will not result in incremental compensation expense. The issuance of equity interests in our business in the future to our senior Carlyle professionals and other personnel would also dilute our stockholders.
We strive to maintain our culture of collaboration and seek to continue to align our interests (and the interests of our employees) with those of our investors. If we do not continue to develop and implement the right processes and tools to maintain our culture, our ability to compete successfully and achieve our business objectives could be impaired, which could negatively impact our business, financial condition and results of operations.
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Given our focus on achieving superior investment performance and maintaining and strengthening investor relations, we may reduce our AUM, restrain its growth, reduce our fees or otherwise alter the terms under which we do business when we deem it in the best interest of our investors—even in circumstances where such actions might be contrary to the near-term interests of stockholders.
From time to time if we decide it is in the best interests of stakeholders, we may take actions that could reduce the profits we could otherwise realize in the short term. While we believe that our commitment to treating our investors fairly is in the long-term interest of us and our stockholders, our stockholders should understand we may take actions that could adversely impact our short-term profitability, and there is no guarantee that such actions will benefit us in the long term. The means by which we seek to achieve superior investment performance in each of our strategies could include limiting the AUM in our strategies to an amount that we believe can be invested appropriately in accordance with our investment philosophy and current or anticipated economic and market conditions. Additionally, we may voluntarily reduce management fee rates and terms for certain of our funds or strategies when we deem it appropriate, even when doing so may reduce our short-term revenue. For instance, in order to enhance our relationship with certain fund investors, we have reduced management fees or ceased charging management fees on certain funds in specific instances. In certain investment funds, we have agreed to charge management fees based on invested capital or net asset value as opposed to charging management fees based on committed capital. In certain cases, such as our most recent power fund, we have provided “fee holidays” to certain investors during which we do not charge management fees for a fixed period of time (such as the first six months). We may receive requests to reduce management fees on other funds in the future. See “—Risks Related to Our Business Operations—Our investors may negotiate to pay us lower management fees and the economic terms of our future funds may be less favorable to us than those of our existing funds, which could adversely affect our revenues.”
Many of our investment funds utilize subscription lines of credit to fund investments prior to the receipt of capital contributions from the fund’s investors. As capital calls made to a fund’s investors are delayed when using a subscription line of credit, the investment period of such investor capital is shortened, which may increase the net internal rate of return of an investment fund. However, since interest expense and other costs of borrowings under subscription lines of credit are an expense of the investment fund, the investment fund’s net multiple of invested capital will be reduced, as will the amount of carried interest generated by the fund. Any material reduction in the amount of carried interest generated by a fund will adversely affect our revenues.
We may also take other actions that could adversely impact our short-term results of operations when we deem such action appropriate. We have also waived management fees on certain leveraged finance vehicles at various times to improve returns. Furthermore, we typically delay the realization of carried interest to which we are otherwise entitled if we determine (based on a variety of factors, including the stage of the fund’s life cycle and the extent of fund profits accrued to date) that there would be an unacceptably high risk of potential future giveback obligations. Any such delay could result in a deferral of realized carried interest to a subsequent period. See “—Our revenue, earnings and cash flow are variable, which makes it difficult for us to achieve steady earnings growth on a quarterly basis.”
We may not be successful in expanding into new investment strategies, markets and businesses, which could adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Our growth strategy focuses on providing resources to foster the development of new product offerings and business strategies by our investment professionals. Given our diverse platform, these initiatives could create conflicts of interests with existing products, increase our costs and expose us to new market risks and legal and regulatory requirements. These products may have different economic structures than our traditional investment funds and may require a different marketing approach. These activities also may impose additional compliance burdens on us, subject us to enhanced regulatory scrutiny and expose us to greater reputation and litigation risk.
The success of our growth strategy will depend on, among other things:
• our ability to correctly identify and create products that appeal to our investors;
• the diversion of management’s time and attention from our existing businesses;
• management’s ability to spend time developing and integrating the new business and the success of the integration effort;
• our ability to properly manage conflicts of interests;
• our ability to identify and manage risks in new lines of businesses;
• our ability to implement and maintain adequate investment processes, controls and procedures around our platforms;
• our ability to obtain requisite approvals and licenses from the relevant governmental authorities and to comply with applicable laws and regulations without incurring undue costs and delays; and
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• our ability to successfully negotiate and enter into beneficial arrangements with our counterparties.
In some instances, we may determine that growth in a specific area is best achieved through the acquisition of an existing business or a smaller scale lift out of an investment team to enhance our platform. Our ability to consummate an acquisition will depend on our ability to identify and value potential acquisition opportunities accurately and successfully compete for these businesses against companies that may have greater financial resources. Even if we are able to identify and successfully negotiate and complete an acquisition, these transactions can be complex and we may encounter unexpected difficulties or delays or incur unexpected costs.
In addition to the concerns noted above, each individual acquisition transaction presents unique challenges to ultimately be successful and the success of a firm acquisition will be affected by, among other things:
• difficulties and costs associated with the integration of operations and systems;
• difficulties integrating the acquired business’s internal controls and procedures into our existing control structure;
• difficulties and costs associated with the assimilation of employees; and
• the risk that a change in ownership will negatively impact the relationship between an acquiree and the investors in its investment vehicles.
In addition, if a new product, business or venture developed internally or by acquisition is unsuccessful, we may decide to wind down, liquidate and/or discontinue it. Such actions could negatively impact our relationships with investors in those businesses, could subject us to litigation or regulatory inquiries and can expose us to additional expenses, including impairment charges and potential liability from investor or other complaints.
Our organizational documents do not limit our ability to enter into new lines of business, and we intend to, from time to time, expand into new investment strategies, geographic markets and businesses, each of which may result in additional risks and uncertainties in our businesses.
We intend, to the extent that market conditions warrant, to seek to grow our businesses and expand into new investment strategies, geographic markets and businesses. Our organizational documents do not limit us to the asset management business and to the extent that we make strategic investments or acquisitions in new geographic markets or businesses, undertake other related strategic initiatives or enter into a new line of business, we may face numerous risks and uncertainties, including risks associated with the following:
• the required investment of capital and other resources;
• the possibility that we have insufficient expertise to engage in such activities profitably or without incurring inappropriate amounts of risk;
• the diversion of management’s attention from our core businesses;
• assumption of liabilities in any acquired business;
• the disruption of our ongoing business;
• how our existing fund investors view any new initiatives;
• the increasing demands on or issues related to the combination or integration of operational and management systems and controls, including related securities systems, and infrastructure;
• compliance with or applicability to our business or our portfolio companies of regulations and laws, including, in particular, local regulations and laws (for example, consumer protection related laws) and customs in the numerous global jurisdictions in which we operate and the impact that noncompliance or even perceived noncompliance could have on us and our portfolio companies;
• our ability to achieve expected results or realize expected synergies from our investments;
• a potential increase in investor concentration; and
• the broadening of our geographic footprint, including the risks associated with conducting operations in certain foreign jurisdictions where we currently have no presence (including regulatory, tax, legal, and reputational consequences).
Entry into certain lines of business may subject us to new laws and regulations with which we are not familiar or from which we are currently exempt, and may lead to increased liability, litigation, regulatory risk and expense. If a new business generates insufficient revenue or if we are unable to efficiently manage our expanded operations, our results of operations may be adversely affected.
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Our strategic initiatives may include joint ventures, which may subject us to additional risks and uncertainties in that we may be dependent upon, and subject to liability, losses or reputational damage relating to, systems, controls and personnel that are not under our control. There can be no assurances that any joint venture opportunities will be successful.
We and our fund investors hold a 71.5% controlling interest in Fortitude, inclusive our 19.9% interest. In addition to the risks noted above, if Fortitude is unable to successfully operate independently, or any real or perceived conflicts of interest arise in implementing Fortitude’s asset management strategy, it may adversely impact our investment in the company and our future growth plans for the business and may not allow us to realize the strategic rationale for investing in the company.
Operational risks (including those associated with our business model), system security risks, breaches of data protection, cyberattacks or actions or failure to act by our employees or others with authorized access to our networks may disrupt our businesses, result in losses or limit our growth.
We rely heavily on our financial, accounting, information and other data processing systems. We face various security threats on a regular basis, including ongoing cybersecurity threats to and attacks on our information technology infrastructure that are intended to gain access to our proprietary information, destroy data or disable, degrade or sabotage our systems. These security threats could originate from a wide variety of sources, including unknown third parties outside the company and current and past employees and contractors who have or had access to our facilities, systems and information (“insider risk”).
There has been an increase in the frequency and sophistication of the cyber and security threats we face, with attacks ranging from those common to businesses generally to those that are more advanced and persistent, which may target us because, as a global investment management firm, we hold a significant amount of confidential and sensitive information about our investors, our portfolio companies and potential investments. As a result, we may face a heightened risk of a security breach, online extortion attempt, or disruption with respect to this information resulting from an attack by a variety of bad actors, including computer hackers, foreign governments, cyber extortionists or cyber terrorists. If successful, these types of attacks on our network or other systems could have a material adverse effect on our business and results of operations, due to, among other things, the loss of investor or proprietary data, interruptions or delays in our business and damage to our reputation. Our suppliers, contractors, investors, and other third parties with whom we do business also experience cyber threats and attacks that are similar in frequency and sophistication. These supply chain attacks are increasing in frequency and impact on the businesses they affect. In many cases, we have to rely on the controls and safeguards put in place by our suppliers, contractors, investors and other third parties to defend against, respond to, and report these attacks.
Because those with authorized access to our networks, including employees and contractors may introduce vulnerabilities in our systems if they are the target of “phishing,” social engineering, bribery, coercion or other attacks through the firm’s systems, we have implemented a security awareness training program. The objective of this program is to inform Carlyle personnel and contractors of their responsibility for information security and includes quarterly online training, live awareness events and phishing simulations.
We cannot know the potential impact of future cyber incidents, which vary widely in severity and scale. There can be no assurance that the various procedures and controls we utilize to mitigate these threats will be sufficient to prevent disruptions to our systems, especially because the cyber-attack techniques used change frequently or are not recognized until launched, and because cyber-attacks can originate from a wide variety of sources. If any of these controls do not operate properly or are disabled for any reason or if there is any unauthorized disclosure of data, whether as a result of tampering, a breach of our network security systems, a cyber-incident or attack or otherwise, we could suffer substantial financial loss, increased costs, a disruption of our businesses, liability to our funds and investors, regulatory intervention or reputational damage. The costs related to cyber or other security threats or disruptions may not be fully insured or indemnified by other means. Significant security incidents at competitor global investment firms in which we are not directly impacted could indirectly lead to increased costs from investor due diligence, revisions to insurance premiums and more extensive and/or frequent regulator inspections.
Our information systems and technology may not continue to be able to accommodate our growth, and the cost of maintaining such systems may increase from its current level. For example, our existing systems may not be adequate to identify or control the relevant risks in investment strategies employed by new investment funds we may introduce. A failure to accommodate growth, or an increase in costs related to such information systems, could have a material adverse effect on us. In addition, we rely on third-party service providers for certain aspects of our business, including for certain information systems and technology and administration of our business development companies, structured credit funds and Global Investment Solutions segment. For example, Carlyle contracts information system backup and recovery services to a portfolio company. These third-party service providers could also face ongoing cybersecurity threats and as a result unauthorized individuals could improperly gain access to our confidential data. Any interruption or deterioration in the performance of these third parties or failures of their information systems and technology could impair the quality of the funds’ operations and could affect our reputation and hence adversely affect our businesses.
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Our technology, data and intellectual property and the technology, data and intellectual property of our portfolio companies are also subject to a heightened risk of theft, disruption or compromise to the extent we and our portfolio companies engage in operations outside the United States, particularly in those jurisdictions that do not have comparable levels of protection of proprietary information and intangible assets, such as intellectual property and customer information and records. In addition, we and our portfolio companies may be required to compromise protections or forgo rights to technology, data and intellectual property in order to operate in or access markets in a foreign jurisdiction. Any such direct or indirect compromise of these assets could have a material adverse consequence on us or our investments.
Our global workforce has quickly transitioned to a remote work environment during the pandemic. We depend on our personnel located near Washington, DC, where most of our administrative and operations personnel are centralized, including our treasury, tax, finance, and GTS functions, for the continued operation of our business. However, our global employee base services the needs of our investment funds and investors out of 26 offices around the world. As our business needs evolve, we may be required to expand our office space, which could increase our rent expense. Alternatively, as part of trends toward remote and hybrid work develop, and/or in order to reduce expenses, we may close offices, and a restructuring of our corporate real estate that results in the closure or subleasing of one or more offices could result in charges and other costs incurred by us. Additionally, we may terminate the employment of a significant number of our personnel or cut back or eliminate the use of certain services or service providers, that, in each case, could be important to our business and without which our operating results could be adversely affected.
A disaster or a disruption in the infrastructure that supports our businesses, including a disruption involving electronic communications or other services used by us or third parties with whom we conduct business, or directly affecting our headquarters, could have a material adverse impact on our ability to continue to operate our business without interruption. Our disaster recovery programs may not be sufficient to mitigate the harm that may result from such a disaster or disruption. For example, systematic risks such as a massive and prolonged global failure of Amazon or Microsoft’s cloud services could result in cascading catastrophic systems failures. We may also need to commit additional management, operational and financial resources to identify new professionals to join our firm and to maintain appropriate operational and financial systems to adequately support expansion. The market for hiring talented professionals, including IT and cybersecurity professionals, is competitive and we may not be able to grow at the pace we desire.
In addition, we, and our portfolio companies, may not be able to obtain or maintain sufficient insurance on commercially reasonable terms or with adequate coverage levels against potential liabilities we may face in connection with potential claims, which could have a material adverse effect on our business. We may face a risk of loss from a variety of claims, including related to securities, antitrust, contracts, cyber incidents, fraud, business interruption and various other potential claims, whether or not such claims are valid. Insurance and other safeguards might only partially reimburse us for our losses, if at all, and if a claim is successful and exceeds or is not covered by our insurance policies, we may be required to pay a substantial amount in respect of such successful claim. Because of market conditions, premiums and deductibles for certain insurance policies, particularly D&O, cyber and property insurance, have increased substantially and may increase further, and in some instances, certain insurance may become unavailable or available only for reduced amounts of coverage. Additionally, the dollar amount of claims and/or the number of claims we experience may also increase at any time, which may have the result of further increasing our costs.
Certain losses of a catastrophic nature, such as wars, earthquakes, typhoons, pandemics, terrorist attacks or other similar events, may be uninsurable or may only be insurable at rates that are so high that maintaining coverage would cause an adverse impact on our business, our investment funds and their portfolio companies. Losses related to the COVID-19 pandemic have generally been excluded under most business property insurance policies and business interruption policies and going forward will not be covered under new policies. In general, losses related to terrorism are becoming harder and more expensive to insure against. Some insurers are excluding terrorism coverage from their all-risk policies. In some cases, insurers are offering significantly limited coverage against terrorist acts for additional premiums, which can greatly increase the total cost of casualty insurance for a property. As a result, we, our investment funds and their portfolio companies may not be insured against terrorism or certain other catastrophic losses.
Our portfolio companies also rely on data and processing systems and the secure processing, storage and transmission of information, including highly sensitive financial and medical data. A disruption or compromise of these systems, including from a cyber-attack or cyber-incident, could have a material adverse effect on the value of these businesses. Our investment funds may invest in strategic assets having a national or regional profile or in infrastructure assets, the nature of which could expose them to a greater risk of being subject to a terrorist attack or security breach than other assets or businesses. Such an event may have adverse consequences on our investment or assets of the same type or may require portfolio companies to increase preventative security measures or expand insurance coverage.
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Failure to maintain the security of our information and technology networks, including personally identifiable employee and investor information, intellectual property and proprietary business information could have a material adverse effect on us.
We are subject to various risks and costs associated with the collection, handling, storage and transmission of sensitive information, including those related to compliance with U.S. and foreign data collection and privacy laws and other contractual obligations, as well as those associated with the compromise of our systems collecting such information. In the ordinary course of our business, we collect and store sensitive data, including our proprietary business information and intellectual property, and personally identifiable information of our employees and our investors, in our data centers, on our networks and with our third-party service providers. The secure processing, maintenance and transmission of this information are critical to our operations. Although we take various measures and have made, and will continue to make, significant investments to ensure the integrity of our systems and to safeguard against such failures or security breaches, including mechanisms for governance, strategy and risk management, there can be no assurance that these measures and investments will provide protection. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated these risks due to heavier reliance on online communication and the remote or partially remote working environment, which may be less secure, and there has been a significant increase in hacking attempts by cyber-criminals. In 2021, Carlyle responded to several large-scale phishing attacks, resulting in no harm to Carlyle assets. In addition, we and our employees have been and expect to continue to be the target of fraudulent calls and emails, the subject of impersonations and fraudulent requests for money, including attempts to redirect material payment amounts to fraudulent bank accounts, and other forms of spam attacks, phishing or other social engineering, supply chain attacks, ransomware or other events. In addition, we have been, and could in the future be, the target of a type of wire transfer fraud known as business email compromise where a third party seeks to benefit from misrepresenting an employee or fund investor by improperly authorizing a wire transfer or change in wire instructions. While our policies and procedures have been effective against this fraud to date, a significant actual or potential theft, loss, corruption, exposure, fraudulent use or misuse of investor, employee or other personally identifiable or proprietary business data, whether by third parties or as a result of employee malfeasance or otherwise, non-compliance with our contractual or other legal obligations regarding such data or intellectual property or a violation of our privacy and security policies with respect to such data could result in significant remediation and other costs, fines, litigation or regulatory actions against us by the U.S. federal and state governments, the EU or other jurisdictions or by various regulatory organizations or exchanges. Such an event could additionally disrupt our operations and the services we provide to investors, damage our reputation, result in a loss of a competitive advantage, impact our ability to provide timely and accurate financial data, and cause a loss of confidence in our services and financial reporting, which could adversely affect our business, revenues, competitive position and investor confidence.
Laws and regulations relating to privacy, data protection, data transfers, data localization, and data security worldwide may limit the use and adoption of our services and adversely affect our business.
Cybersecurity is a top priority for regulators around the world. As a result, we are subject to a variety of federal, state, local, and international laws, directives, and regulations, as well as contractual obligations, relating to the collection, use, retention, security, disclosure, transfer, and other processing of personal information and other sensitive data. The legal framework for privacy, data protection, and data transfers worldwide is rapidly evolving and is likely to remain uncertain for the foreseeable future.
In some cases, federal regulators have been focusing on cybersecurity as an area of concern for several years. For example, in guidance from the SEC since at least 2011, cybersecurity has been raised as an area where companies, which would include global investment firms, must disclose both threats to the company and material cyber events that have been experienced by that company. In at least cases from the latter half of 2021, the SEC brought enforcement actions against registered companies that failed to report such cyber events. We expect increasing SEC enforcement activity related to cybersecurity matters, including by the SEC’s Office of Compliance Inspections and Examinations (OCIE) in its examination programs, where cybersecurity has been prioritized with an emphasis on, among other things, proper configuration of network storage devices, information security governance, and policies and procedures related to retail trading information security. Further, the SEC has indicated in recent remarks that areas of focus for potential new policies and initiatives could include cyber hygiene and preparedness, cyber incident reporting to the government and, in certain circumstances disclosure to the public.
Although we maintain cybersecurity controls designed to prevent cyber incidents from occurring, no security is perfect and not all cyberattacks can be detected or stopped. It is possible that current and future cyber enforcement activity will target practices that we believe are compliant but were not necessarily deemed to be by the SEC. In addition, many jurisdictions in which we operate have other laws and regulations relating to data privacy, cybersecurity, data transfers, data localization and protection of personal information.
In the European Economic Area (“EEA”), the General Data Protection Regulation (“GDPR”) establishes requirements applicable to the processing of personal data, affords new data protection rights to individuals, and imposes penalties for serious data breaches. Additionally, Brexit took effect in January 2020, which will lead to further legislative changes and reduces
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clarity as to whether data transfer to the United Kingdom will remain lawful in the long term. We may also need to make use of alternative data transfer mechanisms such as standard contractual clauses approved by the European Commission, or the SCCs. On June 4, 2021, the European Commission adopted new SCCs under the GDPR for personal data transfers outside the EEA, which may require us to expend significant resources to update our contractual arrangements and to comply with such obligations. Further, data protection authorities may require measures to be put in place in addition to SCCs for transfers to countries outside of the EEA. Our third-party service providers may also be affected by these changes. In addition to other impacts, we may experience additional costs to comply with these changes, and we and our customers face the potential for regulators in the EEA to apply different standards to the transfer of personal data from the EEA to the United States and other non-EEA countries. We cannot fully predict how the GDPR, the UK GDPR, and other data protection laws or regulations may develop in the medium to longer term nor the effects of divergent laws and guidance regarding how data transfers to and from the UK will be regulated.
Further, China strengthened the protection of personal information and tightened control over cross-border data transfer with the enactment of the Data Security Law (the “DSL”) (effective from September 1, 2021) and the Personal Information Protection Law (the “PIPL”) (effective from November 1, 2021). Both laws may affect the business of Carlyle and our portfolio companies in the following ways. Firstly, when conducting business and processing personal information or other data in China, Carlyle and our portfolio companies are obliged to comply with the processing rules and security obligations prescribed by the DSL and PIPL. Secondly, both laws may apply extra-territorially to the processing of personal information and other data relating to China conducted by Carlyle or our portfolio companies outside of China. Thirdly, both laws regulate cross-border data transfer conducted by Carlyle and our portfolio companies. The PIPL imposes several conditions for cross-border transfer of personal information (e.g., separate consent from data subjects, governmental security review and approval in certain circumstances), while the DSL restricts transfer of “important data” outside of China. The exact scope of “important data” remains unclear but may include certain data collected and/or generated by Carlyle and our portfolio companies in China. Lastly, Carlyle and our portfolio companies may be contractually bound by certain data compliance obligations when dealing with counterparties in China as a result of the DSL and the PIPL.
In addition to the PIPL and the DSL, China passed its first Cybersecurity Law (the “CSL”) in 2016. The CSL is the first PRC law to specify regulatory requirements on cybersecurity and data protection applicable to online activities that had not, in the past, been regulated. Violations of the CSL include a variety of penalties, including warnings, surrender of illegal income, suspension of business activities, winding up, shutting down websites, and revocation of business license or relevant permits. More recently, China passed two cybersecurity laws that could affect our business. First, the DSL specifies obligations for entities and individuals handling personal data, including that acquisition of personal data cannot be via illegal means, and the collection and use of personal data cannot exceed necessary limits. Second, the National Intelligence Law (“NIL”) allows authorities to request organizations and citizens to provide necessary support, assistance, and cooperation to the government. The law provides broad police power, including the ability for intelligence officials to enter relevant restricted areas and venues, learn from and question relevant organizations, and collect relevant files, materials or items.
The costs of compliance with, and other burdens imposed by the PIPL, CSL, DSL and NIL, along with any other cybersecurity and related laws in China, could have an adverse impact on our business and increase our compliance burden. The lack of clarity and regulatory guidance on some issues adds to the compliance risks. Any inability, or perceived inability, to adequately address privacy and data protection concerns, or comply with applicable laws, regulations, policies, industry standards, contractual obligations, or other legal obligations could result in additional cost and liability and could damage our reputation and adversely affect our business.
Many other foreign countries and governmental bodies in other relevant jurisdictions where Carlyle and our portfolio companies conduct business, have laws and regulations concerning the collection and use of PII and other data obtained from their residents or by businesses operating within their jurisdiction that are more restrictive than those in the U.S. For example, the Hong Kong Personal Data (Privacy) Ordinance, the Australian Privacy Act, and the Brazilian Bank Secrecy Law. Global laws in this area are rapidly increasing in the scale and depth of their requirements, and are also often extra-territorial in nature. In addition, a wide range of regulators are seeking to enforce these laws across regions and borders. Furthermore, we frequently have privacy compliance requirements as a result of our contractual obligations with counterparties. These legal and contractual obligations heighten our privacy obligations in the ordinary course of conducting our business in the U.S. and internationally.
In the U.S., new state laws are being passed, such as the California Consumer Privacy Act (“CCPA”) which took effect in January 2020 and provides for enhanced consumer protections for California residents, a private right of action for data breaches and statutory fines for data breaches and other CCPA violations. The CCPA also requires covered companies to provide new disclosures to California residents, and provides such residents new ways to opt-out of certain sales of personal information. The CCPA provides for civil penalties for violations, as well as a private right of action for data breaches that is expected to increase data breach litigation.
California voters also approved the California Privacy Rights Act (“CPRA”) in November 2020. Effective starting on January 1, 2023, the CPRA will significantly modify the CCPA, including by expanding rights with respect to certain sensitive
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personal information creating a new state agency for enforcing the CCPA and the CPRA. Other states will continue to shape the data privacy environment nationally. For example, the Virginia Consumer Data Protection Act, or CDPA, becomes effective on January 1, 2023 and the Colorado Privacy Act, or CPA, takes effect on July 1, 2023. Aspects of these state privacy statutes remain unclear, resulting in further legal uncertainty and potentially requiring us to modify our data practices and policies and to incur substantial additional costs and expenses in an effort to comply.
Complying with the GDPR, DSL, PIPL, CCPA, CPRA, CDPA, CPA, or other laws, regulations, amendments to or re-interpretations of existing laws and regulations, and contractual or other obligations relating to privacy, data protection, data transfers, data localization, or information security may require us to make changes to our services to enable us or our customers to meet new legal requirements, incur substantial operational costs, modify our data practices and policies, and restrict our business operations. Any actual or perceived failure by us to comply with these laws, regulations, or other obligations may lead to significant fines, penalties, regulatory investigations, lawsuits, significant costs for remediation, damage to our reputation, or other liabilities.
If we fail to comply with the relevant privacy and security laws and regulations, it could result in regulatory investigations and penalties, which could lead to negative publicity and may cause our investors to lose confidence in the effectiveness of our security measures. Any inability, or perceived inability, to adequately address privacy and data protection concerns, or comply with applicable laws, regulations, policies, industry standards, contractual obligations, or other legal obligations also could result in additional cost and liability and could damage our reputation and adversely affect our business.
We have increasingly undertaken business initiatives to increase the number and type of investment products we offer to retail investors, which could expose us to new and greater levels of risk.
Although retail investors have been part of our historic distribution efforts, we have increasingly undertaken business initiatives to increase the number and type of investment products we offer to high net worth individuals, family offices and other mass affluent investors. In some cases we seek to distribute our unregistered funds to such retail investors indirectly through feeder funds sponsored by brokerage firms, private banks or other similar third-parties, and in other cases directly to the qualified clients of private banks, independent investment advisors and brokers. In other cases we offer registered investment products specifically designed for direct investment by both retail and institutional investors. Our initiatives to access retail investors entail the investment of resources and our objectives may not be fully realized.
Accessing retail investors and selling retail directed products exposes us to new and greater levels of risk, including heightened litigation and regulatory enforcement risks. To the extent we distribute retail products through new channels, including through unaffiliated firms, we may not be able to effectively monitor or control the manner of their distribution, which could result in litigation against us, including with respect to, among other things, claims that products distributed through such channels are distributed to customers for whom they are unsuitable or distributed in any other inappropriate manner. Although we seek to ensure through both due diligence and supervisory procedures that the channels through which retail investors access our investment products conduct themselves responsibly, to the extent that our investment products are being distributed through third parties, we are exposed to reputational damage and possible legal liability to the extent such third parties improperly sell our products to investors. Similarly, the hiring of employees to oversee independent advisors and brokers presents risks if they fail to follow training, review and supervisory procedures. In addition, the distribution of retail products through new channels whether directly or through market intermediaries could expose us to additional regulatory risk in the form of allegations of improper conduct and/or actions by state and federal regulators against us with respect to, among other things, product suitability, conflicts of interest and the adequacy of disclosure to customers to whom our products are distributed through those channels.
Extensive regulation in the United States and abroad affects our activities, increases the cost of doing business and creates the potential for significant liabilities and penalties.
Our business is subject to extensive regulation, including periodic examinations, by governmental agencies and self-regulatory organizations in the jurisdictions in which we operate around the world. Many of these regulators, including U.S. and foreign government agencies and self-regulatory organizations and state securities commissions in the United States, are empowered to conduct investigations and administrative proceedings that can result in fines, suspensions of personnel or other sanctions, including censure, the issuance of cease-and-desist orders or the suspension or expulsion of a broker-dealer or investment adviser from registration or memberships. Even if an investigation or proceeding does not result in a sanction or the sanction imposed against us or our personnel by a regulator were small in monetary amount, the costs incurred in responding to such matters could be material and the adverse publicity relating to the investigation, proceeding or imposition of these sanctions could harm our reputation and cause us to lose existing investors or fail to gain new investors or discourage others from doing business with us. Some of our investment funds invest in businesses that operate in highly regulated industries, including in businesses that are regulated by the U.S. Federal Communications Commission and U.S. federal and state banking authorities. The regulatory regimes to which such businesses are subject may, among other things, condition our funds’ ability to invest in those businesses upon the satisfaction of applicable ownership restrictions or qualification requirements. Our failure
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to obtain or maintain any regulatory approvals necessary for our funds to invest in such industries may disqualify our funds from participating in certain investments or require our funds to divest themselves of certain assets.
In recent years, the SEC and its staff have focused on issues relevant to global investment firms and have formed specialized units devoted to examining such firms and, in certain cases, bringing enforcement actions against the firms, their principals and their employees. We expect a greater level of SEC enforcement activity under the current Administration, and while we believe that we have a robust compliance program in place, it is possible this enforcement activity will target practices that we believe are compliant and which were not targeted by the prior Administration. Recent SEC focus areas have also included the use and compensation of, and disclosure regarding, operating partners or consultants, outside business activities of firm principals and employees and group purchasing arrangements and general conflicts of interest disclosures. The SEC is also focused on adherence to practices disclosed in fund offering documents, management of conflicted transactions, management fee calculation, performance advertising and investment due diligence practices.
It is generally expected that the SEC’s oversight of global investment firms will continue to focus on concerns related to transparency, investor disclosure practices, investment risks and conflicts of interest, fees and expenses, liquidity, valuation of assets, and controls around material non-public information, which could impact Carlyle in various ways. For example, our private equity funds frequently engage operating executives and senior advisors who often work with our investment teams during due diligence, provide board-level governance and support and advise portfolio company management. Operating executives and senior advisors generally are third parties, are not considered Carlyle employees and typically are engaged by us pursuant to consulting agreements, and the investors in our private equity funds may bear the cost of the operating executive or senior advisor compensation, as permitted under the relevant fund legal documents. In some cases, an operating executive or senior advisor may be retained by a portfolio company directly and in such instances the portfolio company may compensate the operating executive or senior advisor directly (meaning that investors in our private equity funds may indirectly bear the cost of the operating executive’s or senior advisor’s compensation). While we believe we have made appropriate and timely disclosures regarding the engagement and compensation of our operating executives and senior advisors, the SEC staff may disagree.
The SEC has also signaled that it will continue to focus on issues specific to private investment funds, including performance advertising, the inclusion of preferred liquidity and disclosure terms in side letters, transparency of fund fees and expenses, and reporting of information to the SEC on Form ADV and Form PF, including proposed amendments to Form PF that would require enhanced disclosure with shorter filing deadlines. Any new rulemaking by the SEC in these areas could have an impact on our business practices and result in additional operational, administrative and compliance burden and could potentially result in reductions to our revenue, earnings and cash flow. We also regularly are subject to requests for information and informal or formal investigations by the SEC and other regulatory authorities, with which we routinely cooperate. In the current environment, even historical practices that have been previously examined are being revisited. These additional regulatory requirements will increase our compliance costs and may expose us to liabilities and penalties if we fail to comply with the applicable laws, rules and regulations. In February 2022, the SEC voted to propose new rules and amendments (collectively, the “SEC Proposed Rule”) to existing rules under the Advisers Act specifically related to registered advisers and their activities with respect to private funds. If enacted, the SEC Proposed Rule could have a significant impact on advisers to private funds, including Carlyle. In particular, the SEC has proposed to limit circumstances in which a fund manager can be indemnified by a private fund; increase reporting requirements by private funds to investors concerning performance, fees and expenses; require registered advisers to obtain an annual audit for private funds and also require such fund’s auditor to notify the SEC upon the occurrence of certain material events; enhanced requirements, including the need to obtain a fairness opinion and make certain disclosures, in connection with adviser-led secondary transactions (also known as GP-led secondaries); prohibit advisers from engaging in certain practices, such as, without limitation, charging accelerated fees for unperformed services or fees and expenses associated with an examination to private fund clients and seeking reimbursement, indemnification, exculpation or otherwise limiting an adviser’s liability for certain activities; and impose limitations and new disclosure requirements regarding preferential treatment of investors in private funds in side letters or other arrangements with an adviser. If adopted, including with modifications, this new SEC Proposed Rule could have a significant effect on private fund advisers and their operations, including increasing compliance burdens and associated regulatory costs, reducing the ability to receive expense or indemnification reimbursements, and enhancing the risk of regulatory action, including public regulatory sanctions and may result in a change to our practices and create additional regulatory uncertainty. Further, we note that in connection with the SEC Proposed Rule, if such rule were to be enacted, it could also significantly increase the cost of insurance, specifically D&O and E&O insurance, or may even make such insurance coverage unavailable.
We regularly rely on exemptions from various requirements of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), the Exchange Act, the Investment Company Act, the Commodity Exchange Act, and the U.S. Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974, as amended (“ERISA”), in conducting our asset management activities in the United States. If for any reason these exemptions were to become unavailable to us, we could become subject to regulatory action or third-party claims and our business could be materially and adversely affected. For example, in 2014, the SEC amended Rule 506 of Regulation D under the Securities Act to impose “bad actor” disqualification provisions which ban an issuer from offering or selling securities pursuant to the safe harbor in Rule 506 if the issuer, or any other “covered person”, is the subject of a criminal,
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regulatory or court order or other disqualifying event” under the rule which has not been waived by the SEC. The definition of “covered person” under the rule includes an issuer’s directors, general partners, managing members and executive officers; affiliates who are also issuing securities in the offering; beneficial owners of 20% or more of the issuer’s outstanding equity securities; and promoters and persons compensated for soliciting investors in the offering. Accordingly, our ability to rely on Rule 506 to offer or sell securities would be impaired if we or any “covered person” is the subject of a disqualifying event under the rule and we are unable to obtain a waiver from the SEC.
Similarly, in conducting our asset management activities outside the United States, we rely on available exemptions from the regulatory regimes of various foreign jurisdictions. These exemptions from regulation within the United States and abroad are sometimes highly complex and may, in certain circumstances, depend on compliance by third parties whom we do not control. If for any reason these exemptions were to become unavailable to us, we could become subject to regulatory action or third-party claims and our business could be materially and adversely affected. Moreover, the requirements imposed by our regulators are designed primarily to ensure the integrity of the financial markets and to protect investors in our funds and are not designed to protect our stockholders. Consequently, these regulations often serve to limit our activities and impose burdensome compliance requirements. See Item 1. “Business —Regulatory and Compliance Matters.”
We may become subject to additional regulatory and compliance burdens as we expand our product offerings and investment platform, including registered product offerings for retail investors. For example, we have a number of closed-end investment companies in our Global Credit segment that are subject to the Investment Company Act and the rules thereunder, which, among other things, impose regulatory restrictions on principal transactions between, and joint transactions among, the investment company and certain of its affiliates, including its investment adviser. Certain of these investment companies are subject to additional securities law requirements due to their status as a publicly-traded issuer, as well as the listing standards of the applicable national securities exchange. Other jurisdictions, particularly in Europe and the United Kingdom, impose similar (if not greater) regulatory burdens on registered product offerings. We expect to offer more of these registered investment products in the future to U.S. and non-U.S. investors. These additional regulatory requirements will increase our compliance costs and may expose us to liabilities and penalties if we fail to comply with the applicable laws, rules and regulations.
We are subject to U.S. and foreign anti-corruption, anti-bribery, and anti-money laundering laws, including the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, as amended (“FCPA”), the U.S. domestic bribery statute, and the U.S. Travel Act, and other anti-corruption, anti-bribery, and anti-money laundering laws in the countries in which we conduct activities. Anti-corruption laws are interpreted broadly and prohibit us from authorizing, offering, or providing, directly or indirectly, improper payments or things of value to recipients in the public or private sector. In addition, we are subject to the accounting and internal controls provisions of the FCPA, which require us to maintain accurate books and records and a system of internal controls sufficient to detect and prevent corrupt conduct. We are also subject to U.S. export controls and economic sanctions administered by the U.S. Commerce Department, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”) of the U.S. Treasury Department, and the U.S. Department of State. Such export control laws and regulations and economic sanctions are based on U.S. foreign policy and national security goals, and are enforced against targeted countries, jurisdictions, territories, regimes, entities, organizations and individuals.
Laws in non-U.S. jurisdictions, including those addressing anti-bribery, anti-corruption, anti-money laundering, economic sanctions or export control, may impose stricter or more onerous requirements than such laws of the United States, and complying with these foreign laws may disrupt our business or cause us to incur significantly more costs to comply with those laws. For example, in the UK, we are subject to the UK Proceeds of Crime Act 2002 regarding the prevention of money laundering and the financing of terrorism, as well as the UK Bribery Act 2010 prohibiting private and public sector bribery. Different laws may also contain conflicting provisions, making compliance with all laws more difficult. We cannot predict the nature, scope or effect of future regulatory requirements to which we might be subject or the manner in which existing laws might be administered, interpreted or enforced. Our funds’ portfolio companies’ compliance policies and procedures may not prevent all instances of money laundering or bribery, or other prohibited transactions, including those arising from actions by employees, representatives, or other agents, for which we or they might be held responsible.
These various anti-corruption, anti-money laundering, export control, and sanctions laws and regulations relate to a number of aspects of our businesses, including servicing existing fund investors, finding new fund investors and sourcing new investments, as well as the activities of our funds’ portfolio companies, and require ongoing monitoring of both investors and portfolio assets. U.S. government regulators, including the U.S. Department of Justice, the SEC and OFAC, have devoted more resources to enforcement of the FCPA and export control and sanctions laws as enforcement has become more of a priority in recent years. A number of other countries, including countries where we and our funds’ portfolio companies maintain operations or conduct business, have also significantly expanded their enforcement activities, especially in regards to anti-corruption. Recently, the U.S. government has also used sanctions and export controls to address broader foreign and international economic policy goals. While we have developed and implemented policies and procedures designed to ensure compliance by us and our personnel with the FCPA and other anti-corruption laws, as well as export control and economic sanctions laws, we cannot ensure that none of our employees, representatives, contractors, partners, and agents will take actions in violations of our policies and applicable law, for which we may be ultimately held responsible. Any determination that we
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have violated these laws could subject us to, among other things, civil and criminal penalties, material fines, profit disgorgement, injunctions on future conduct, securities litigation, disbarment and a general loss of investor confidence, any one of which could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition and cash flow, as well as our reputation.
In addition, the Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act of 2012 (the “ITRA”) expanded the scope of U.S. sanctions against Iran and Section 219 of the ITRA amended the Exchange Act to require companies subject to SEC reporting obligations under Section 13 of the Exchange Act to disclose in their periodic reports specified dealings or transactions involving Iran, or other individuals and entities targeted by certain sanctions promulgated by OFAC, by the reporting company or any of its affiliates, including in our case some of our portfolio companies, during the period covered by the relevant periodic report. In some cases, the ITRA requires companies to disclose transactions even if they were permissible under U.S. law. In addition, the ITRA imposes an obligation to separately file with the SEC a notice that specified activities have been disclosed in our quarterly and annual reports, and the SEC is required to post this notice of disclosure on its website and send the report to the U.S. President and certain U.S. Congressional committees. Disclosure of ITRA-specified activity, even if such activity is legally permissible and not subject to sanctions under applicable law, and any fines or penalties actually imposed on us or our affiliates as a result of any impermissible activities, could harm our reputation and have a negative impact on our business. In the past, we have disclosed pursuant to Section 13 of the Exchange Act, certain permissible dealings and transactions and to date, we have not received notice of any investigation into such activities.
On January 18, 2022, the U.S. Department of Justice Antitrust Division and the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (“FTC”) launched a joint public inquiry aimed at strengthening enforcement against illegal mergers, citing evidence that many industries across the economy are becoming more concentrated and less competitive. Antitrust regulators in several foreign jurisdictions have announced similar antitrust enforcement initiatives. These initiatives are expected to increase scrutiny of mergers and acquisitions and to result in the adoption of more stringent guidelines for pre-approval of mergers. As a result, the process of obtaining pre-approval from the FTC and other non-U.S. antitrust authorities for mergers and acquisitions undertaken by the investment funds we manage is expected to become more challenging, more time consuming, and more expensive. If certain proposed acquisitions or dispositions of portfolio companies by our managed investment funds are delayed or rejected by antitrust regulators, it could have an adverse impact on our ability to generate future performance revenues and to fully invest the available capital in our funds, as well as reduce opportunities to exit and realize value from our fund investments.
If we fail to comply with this multitude of laws and regulations, even where conflicts of law arise, we could be exposed to claims for damages, civil or criminal penalties, incarceration of our employees, restrictions on our operations (including disbarment) and other liabilities, especially as non-U.S. regulators increase their enforcement activities, which could materially and adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial condition, cash flow and our reputation. In addition, we may be subject to successor liability for FCPA violations or other acts of bribery, or violations of applicable anti-corruption, sanctions or export control laws committed by companies in which we or our funds invest or which we or our funds acquire.
It is unclear what impact the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union will have on the Company or the fund portfolio companies.
The UK held a referendum in June 2016 on whether to remain a member state of the EU, in which a majority of voters voted to leave the EU. The UK officially left the EU on January 31, 2020, and a transition period of 11 months commenced on this date to allow for the negotiation of a new trade agreement. This transition period ended on December 31, 2020. Various EU laws have been adopted into domestic UK legislation and certain transitional regimes and deficiency-correction powers exist to ease the transition.
The UK and the EU announced, on December 24, 2020, that they had reached agreement on a new Trade and Cooperation Agreement (the “TCA”), which addresses the future relationship between the parties. The TCA was approved by the UK Parliament on December 30, 2020. Due to the TCA only being agreed shortly before the end of the transition period, it applied on a provisional basis in the EU until it was formally ratified by the European Parliament and has applied permanently from May 1, 2021. The TCA covers, for example, measures to preserve tariff-free trade in goods and the ability of UK nationals to travel to the EU on business but defers other issues. While the TCA includes a commitment by the UK and the EU to keep their markets open for persons wishing to provide financial services through a permanent establishment, it does not substantively address future cooperation in the financial services sector or reciprocal market access into the EU by UK-based firms under equivalence arrangements or otherwise.
While the TCA provides clarity in some areas, the impact of Brexit on our business operations in the UK and the EU, and on the private investment funds industry and global financial markets more broadly, remains uncertain. This is driven in part by the ongoing uncertainty relating to equivalence and the extent to which the EU will grant reciprocal access to UK firms in the financial services sector. As a new agreement, the implications and operation of the TCA may also be subject to change and/or develop at short notice.
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In any case, as of January 1, 2021, our UK FCA-authorized affiliates, CECP and CELF, ceased to be entitled to exercise single market passport rights to provide investment services in or into the EEA on a cross-border services basis. Certain EEA investor-facing activities previously carried on by those firms have been reorganized so that they are performed now by different, EEA established affiliates under alternative licensing arrangements. These arrangements may subject us to additional regulatory obligations and may impede our ability to raise capital from EEA investors.
In this respect and otherwise, uncertainty about the way in which these and other complex issues will be resolved could adversely affect the Company, its investment funds and portfolio companies (especially if its investment funds include, or expose them to, businesses that depend on access to the single market, the customs union, or whose value is affected adversely by the UK’s future relationship with the EU). The size and importance of the UK’s economy, coupled with uncertainty or unpredictability about the precise nature of its future legal, political and economic relationship with the EU following the implementation of the TCA (and any subsequent discussions between the UK and EU in respect of matters not within its scope) may continue to cause instability, significant currency fluctuations and/or other adverse effects on international markets, international trade agreements and/or other existing cross-border cooperation arrangements (whether economic, tax, fiscal, legal, regulatory or otherwise). In addition, Brexit could have a destabilizing effect if any other member states were to consider withdrawing from the EU. The decision for any other member state to withdraw from the EU could exacerbate such uncertainty and instability and may present similar and/or additional potential risks and consequences for the Company, its investment funds and fund portfolio companies.
These complex issues and other by-products of Brexit, such as the tightening of credit in the UK commercial real estate market, may also increase the costs of having operations, conducting business and making investments in the UK and Europe. As a result, the performance of our funds which are focused on investing in the UK and to a lesser extent across Europe, may be disproportionately affected compared to those funds that invest more broadly across global geographies or are focused on different regions.
The uncertainty surrounding the precise nature of the UK’s future legal relationship with the EU may continue to be a source of significant exchange rate fluctuations and/or other adverse effects on international markets. Unhedged currency fluctuations have the ability to adversely affect our funds and their underlying portfolio companies.
Further, the development of the UK’s future legislative approach remains uncertain. The UK may elect in the future to repeal, amend or replace EU laws, which could exacerbate the uncertainty and result in divergent UK national laws and regulations. Changes to the regulatory regimes in the UK or the EU and its member states could materially affect our business prospects and opportunities and increase our costs. In addition, Brexit could potentially disrupt the tax jurisdictions in which we operate and affect the tax benefits or liabilities in these or other jurisdictions in a manner that is adverse to us and/or our funds. Any of the foregoing could materially and adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Financial regulations and changes thereto in the United States could adversely affect our business and the possibility of increased regulatory focus could result in additional burdens and expenses on our business.
The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (the “Dodd-Frank Act”), enacted in 2010, has imposed significant changes on almost every aspect of the U.S. financial services industry, including aspects of our business. On May 24, 2018, the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief and Consumer Protection Act (the “Reform Act”) was signed into law. The Reform Act amends various sections of the Dodd-Frank Act, including by modifying the Volcker Rule to exempt certain insured depository institutions. The Reform Act and various other proposals focused on deregulation of the U.S. financial services industry may have the effect of increasing competition for our credit-focused businesses or otherwise reducing investment opportunities, which could adversely affect our business.
The Volcker Rule, as amended by the Reform Act, generally prohibits any “banking entity” (broadly defined as any insured depository institution, subject to certain exceptions including for depository institutions that do not have, and are not controlled by a company that has, more than $10 billion in total consolidated assets and significant trading assets and liabilities, any company that controls such an institution, a non-U.S. bank that is treated as a bank holding company for purposes of U.S. banking law and any affiliate or subsidiary of the foregoing entities) from sponsoring, acquiring or retaining an ownership interest in a fund that is not subject to the provisions of the 1940 Act in reliance upon either Section 3(c)(1) or Section 3(c)(7) of the 1940 Act. The Volcker Rule also authorizes the imposition of additional capital requirements and certain other quantitative limits on such activities engaged in by certain nonbank financial companies that have been determined to be systemically important by the Financial Stability Oversight Council (“FSOC”) and subject to supervision by the Federal Reserve, although such entities are not expressly prohibited from sponsoring or investing in such funds. In July 2019, U.S. federal regulatory agencies adopted amendments to the Volcker Rule regulations to implement the Volcker Rule amendments included in the Reform Act, and also in 2019 such U.S. federal regulatory agencies adopted certain targeted amendments to the Volcker Rule regulations to simplify and tailor certain compliance requirements relating to the Volcker Rule. In June 2020, U.S. federal regulatory agencies adopted additional revisions to the Volcker Rule’s current restrictions on banking entities sponsoring and investing in certain covered hedge funds and private equity funds, including by adopting new exemptions
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allowing banking entities to sponsor and invest without limit in credit funds, venture capital funds, customer facilitation funds and family wealth management vehicles (the “Covered Fund Amendments”). The Covered Fund Amendments also loosen certain other restrictions on extraterritorial fund activities and direct parallel or co-investments made alongside covered funds. The Covered Fund Amendments should therefore expand the ability of banking entities to invest in and sponsor private funds. The Covered Fund Amendments, the Reform Act and such regulatory developments and various other proposals focused on deregulation of the U.S. financial services industry may have the effect of increasing competition for our businesses.
In June 2010, the SEC approved Rule 206(4)-5 under the Advisers Act regarding “pay to play” practices by investment advisers involving campaign contributions and other payments to government clients and elected officials able to exert influence on such clients. The rule prohibits investment advisers from providing advisory services for compensation to a government client for two years, subject to very limited exceptions, after the investment adviser, its senior executives or its personnel involved in soliciting investments from government entities make contributions to certain candidates and officials in a position to influence the hiring of an investment adviser by such government client. Any failure on our part to comply with the rule could expose us to significant penalties, loss of fees, and reputational damage. In August 2017, FINRA’s “pay to play” regulations went into effect. These FINRA rules effectively prohibit the receipt of compensation from state or local government agencies for solicitation and distribution activities within two years of a prohibited contribution by a broker-dealer or one of its covered associates. There have also been similar laws, rules and regulations and/or policies adopted by a number of states and municipal pension plans, which prohibit, restrict or require disclosure of payments to (and/or certain contracts with) state officials by individuals and entities seeking to do business with state entities, including investment by public retirement funds.
The Dodd-Frank Act also imposes a regulatory structure on the “swaps” market, including requirements for clearing, exchange trading, capital, margin, reporting, and recordkeeping. The CFTC has finalized many rules applicable to swap market participants, including business conduct standards for swap dealers, reporting and recordkeeping, mandatory clearing for certain swaps, exchange trading rules applicable to swaps, initial and variation margin requirements for uncleared swap transactions and regulatory requirements for cross-border swap activities. These requirements could reduce market liquidity and adversely affect our business, including by reducing our ability to enter swaps.
The Dodd-Frank Act amended the Exchange Act to direct the Federal Reserve and other federal regulatory agencies to adopt rules requiring sponsors of asset-backed securities (or a majority-owned affiliate thereof) to retain at least 5% of the credit risk relating to the assets collateralizing the asset-backed securities (the “U.S. Risk Retention Rules”). The U.S. Risk Retention Rules were issued by five federal banking and housing agencies and the SEC in October 2014 and became effective on December 24, 2016. A 2018 order by the United States District Court for the District of Columbia held that the U.S. risk retention rules do not apply to managers of open-market CLOs (i.e., CLOs for which the underlying assets are not transferred by the manager to the CLO issuer via a sale). As a result, we have determined that we are not subject to the U.S. Risk Retention Rules in respect of our open-market CLO transactions and do not intend to act in accordance with the various restrictions the U.S. Risk Retention Rules imposed on sponsors of securitization transactions. We continue to review this decision and its ultimate impact on our business.
The Dodd-Frank Act authorizes federal regulatory agencies to review and, in certain cases, prohibit compensation arrangements at financial institutions that give employees incentives to engage in conduct deemed to encourage inappropriate risk taking by covered financial institutions. On May 16, 2016, the SEC and other federal regulatory agencies proposed a rule that would apply requirements on incentive-based compensation arrangements of "covered financial institutions," including certain registered investment advisers and broker-dealers above a specific asset threshold. This, if adopted, could limit our ability to recruit and retain investment professionals and senior management executives. However, the proposed rule remains pending and may be subject to significant modifications.
In May 2018, the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief and Consumer Protection Act became law, which modified automatic additional regulatory compliance issues for financial entities that were deemed “Systemically Important Financial Institutions” (SIFI) from $50 billion AUM to $250 billion AUM. There is legislative risk under the current Administration that such designation will revert back to $50 billion and expand its application to include private equity asset management firms.
Following the 2020 presidential and congressional elections in the U.S. there has been an increased risk of legislative and regulatory action that could adversely limit and affect our and our funds’ portfolio companies’ business. For example, proposed legislation that was introduced into the U.S. Congress in July 2019 was reintroduced in October 2021, containing a number of provisions that, if they were to become law, would adversely impact alternative asset management firms. Among other things, the bill would: (1) subject private funds and certain holders of economic interests therein to joint and several liability for all liabilities of portfolio companies; (2) require private funds to offer identical terms and benefits to all limited partners; (3) require disclosure of names of each limited partner invested in a private fund, as well as sensitive fund and portfolio company-level information; (4) impose a limitation on the deductibility of interest expense only applicable to companies owned by private funds; (5) modify settled bankruptcy law to target transactions by private equity funds; (6) increase tax rates on carried interest; and (7) prohibit portfolio companies from paying dividends or repurchasing their shares or
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outsourcing jobs at portfolio companies during the first two years following the acquisition of the portfolio company. In addition, in August 2021, legislation was introduced in the Senate that would require holders of carried interest to recognize a specified amount of deemed compensation income each year regardless of whether the investment partnership recognizes income or gain and regardless of whether and when the holders receive distributions in respect of their carried interests. If these proposed bills or parts thereof, or other similar legislation, were to become law, it could negatively impact us, our funds’ portfolio companies and our investors.
Future legislation, regulation or guidance may have an adverse effect on the fund industry generally and/or us, specifically. Financial services regulation, including regulations applicable to our business, has increased significantly in recent years, and may in the future be subject to further enhanced governmental scrutiny and/or increased regulation, including resulting from changes in U.S. executive administration or Congressional leadership. The SEC has also signaled that it intends to pursue additional regulation of private fund fees and conflicts of interest, including potentially requiring greater transparency of fund fees and expenses. It is difficult to determine the full extent of the impact on us of any new laws, regulations or initiatives that may be proposed or whether any of the proposals will become law. Any changes in the regulatory framework applicable to our business, including the changes described above, may impose additional costs on us, impact our ability to generate revenue, require the attention of our senior management or result in limitations on the manner in which we conduct our business. Moreover, we anticipate there may be an increase in regulatory investigations of the trading and other investment activities of private funds, including our investment funds. Compliance with any new laws or regulations (including recent heightened SEC scrutiny regarding adviser compliance with advisers’ own internal policies) could make compliance more difficult and expensive, affect the manner in which we conduct our business and adversely affect our profitability.
The short-term and long-term impact of the Basel capital standards is uncertain.
In June 2011, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (“Basel Committee”), an international body comprised of senior representatives of bank supervisory authorities and central banks from 27 countries, including the United States, announced the final framework for a comprehensive set of capital and liquidity standards, commonly referred to as “Basel III,” for internationally active banking organizations and certain other types of financial institutions. The Basel III standards were revised in 2017 as part of a package of reforms referred to as “Basel IV” by the banking industry. These standards generally require banks to hold more capital, predominantly in the form of common equity, than under the previous capital framework, reduce leverage and improve liquidity standards. U.S. federal banking regulators have adopted, and continue to adopt, final regulations to implement Basel III for U.S. banking organizations.
The ongoing adoption of these rules could restrict the ability of banks to maintain certain levels or types of capital market exposures under the present structure of their balance sheets, and cause these entities to raise additional capital in order to stay active in our marketplaces. As a result, their businesses, results of operations, financial condition or prospects could be materially adversely affected, which in turn could have unintended adverse consequences for us, through higher borrowing costs, reduced access to certain types of credit and increased costs and difficulty for us or our funds to enter into transactions in the normal course of our business. Moreover, these increased regulatory responsibilities and increased costs could reduce trading by a number of market participants, which could in turn adversely impact liquidity and increase volatility in the markets and expose our funds to greater risks in connection with their trading activities.
Regulatory initiatives in jurisdictions outside the United States could adversely affect our business.
Similar to the environment in the United States, the current environment in jurisdictions outside the United States in which we operate, in particular the EU and the UK, has become subject to an expanding body of regulation. Governmental regulators and other authorities in the EU and the UK have proposed or implemented a number of initiatives and additional rules and regulations that could adversely affect our business.
New prudential regimes for EU and UK investment firms. On December 5, 2019, a new EU legislative package replacing the existing prudential framework for EU investment firms was published in the Official Journal of the European Union, which took effect on June 26, 2021. The legislation consists of the Investment Firm Regulation and the Investment Firm Directive (together “IFR/IFD”). IFR/IFD represents a complete overhaul of "prudential" regulation (i.e. capital adequacy, liquidity adequacy, governance, remuneration policies and practices, public transparency and regulatory reporting) in the EU and substantially increases regulatory capital requirements for certain investment firms and imposes more onerous remuneration rules, and revised and extended internal governance, disclosure, reporting, liquidity, and group “prudential” consolidation requirements (among other things). IFR/IFD affects AlpInvest, one of our subsidiaries, because it is an alternative investment fund manager in the Netherlands with MiFID top-up permissions to provide investment services.
The UK has implemented its own version of IFR/IFD, the Investment Firms Prudential Regime (the “IFPR”), which took effect from January 1, 2021. The IFPR applies to our subsidiaries that are UK investment firms under the post-Brexit UK-retained Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (as restated, "MiFID II"), namely CECP and CELF. Under the IFPR, among other requirements, both CECP and CELF are required to maintain a more onerous policy on remuneration, set an
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appropriate ratio between the variable and fixed components of total remuneration and meet requirements on the structure of variable remuneration. These requirements may make it more difficult for us to attract and retain staff. IFPR will also result in increased regulatory capital and liquidity adequacy requirements for CECP, in particular, which may increase the costs of doing business and may impede intra-group capital and cash flows.
AIFMD . The AIFMD was implemented in most jurisdictions in the EEA, on July 22, 2014. The AIFMD regulates alternative investment fund managers (“AIFMs”) established in the EEA that manage alternative investment funds (“AIFs”). The AIFMD also regulates and imposes regulatory obligations in respect of the marketing in the EEA by AIFMs (whether established in the EEA or elsewhere) of AIFs (whether established in the EEA or elsewhere). The UK implemented AIFMD while it was still a member of the EU and “onshored” it as part of UK law, such that similar requirements continue to apply in the UK notwithstanding Brexit. AlpInvest, one of our subsidiaries, obtained authorization in 2015 and is licensed as an AIFM in the Netherlands. Additionally, in 2017, one of our subsidiaries, Carlyle Real Estate SGR S.p.A was registered as an AIFM in Italy and in 2018, one of our subsidiaries, CIM Europe, obtained authorization as an AIFM in Luxembourg.
In 2017, the European Commission started a review of AIFMD. The European Commission published a report on the operation of the AIFMD in January 2019, which identified certain areas requiring further analysis. A subsequent report on the application and scope of the AIFMD was published in June 2020. Following these reports, the European Commission launched a public consultation relating to its review of the AIFMD in October 2020, which closed on January 29, 2021. In November 2021, the European Commission published draft legislation, commonly referred to as “AIFMD II”. Subject to the EU ordinary legislative process involving the European Parliament and European Council, this is expected to result in amendments to the AIFMD, which will affect firms two years after the legislation comes into force, possibly in 2024. It is unclear at this stage how the AIFMD II will affect us or our subsidiaries. The current draft proposes a number of amendments to the AIFMD, including more onerous delegation requirements, enhanced substance requirements, additional liquidity management provisions for AIFMs to the extent that they manage open-ended AIFs, and revised regulatory reporting and investor disclosures requirements. The draft proposes significant new requirements relating to the activities of funds which originate loans including new restrictions on the structure which such funds may take. It also proposes to introduce new conditions for non-EEA AIFMs, such as certain of our US affiliates, to be able to make use of the national private placement regimes of EEA states, including a condition that the jurisdiction of neither of the AIFM and AIF have been identified as non-cooperative third countries for tax purposes nor deemed by the EU not to comply fully with the standards laid down in Article 26 of the OECD Model Tax Convention on Income and on Capital and thereby to ensure an effective exchange of information in tax matters. This gives rise to a risk that certain of our AIFs may not be able to take advantage of such regimes to raise capital from EEA investors, potentially with little notice.
Given the significance of this review process as well as its potential impact on the European fund industry framework, we have been considering the potential impact of AIFMD II on our business, particularly with regard to delegation of certain AIFM duties to third-countries that may affect both operating models of CIM Europe and AlpInvest, extension of the directive to third country firms and a push towards harmonization of the Collective Investment in Transferable Securities (“UCITS”) and AIFMD frameworks. AIFMD II has the potential to limit market access for our non-EU funds. Further, compliance with AIFMD II may, amongst other things, increase the cost and complexity of raising capital, may slow the pace of fundraising, limit operations, increase operational costs and disadvantage our investment funds as bidders for and potential owners of private companies located in the EEA when compared to non-AIF/AIFM competitors. It is not yet clear to what extent (if any) the UK would reflect AIFMD II in its domestic rules.
CBDF Directive and CBDF Regulation . In August 2021, two main legislative instruments – Directive (EU) 2019/1160 (the “CBDF Directive”) and Regulation (EU) 2019/1156 (the “CBDF Regulation”) came into effect. The CBDF Regulation and CBDF Directive lay out, among other things, general principles to be adhered to by fund managers when drafting pre-marketing and marketing communications. It also harmonizes the pre-marketing requirements across the EEA by requiring EU AIFMs to notify their local regulator of their intention to pre-market in certain EEA jurisdictions within two (2) weeks of pre-marketing having begun. CIM Europe and AlpInvest began to file such pre-marketing notifications with the CSSF for any new fund and we are working to incorporate the relevant requirements under the CBDF Directive and CBDF Regulation into the firm’s global marketing policy.
Solvency II . The European solvency framework and prudential regime for insurers and reinsurers, under the Solvency II Directive 2009/138/EC (“Solvency II”), took effect in full on January 1, 2016. Solvency II is a regulatory regime which imposes economic risk-based solvency requirements across all EU Member States and consists of three pillars: Pillar I-quantitative capital requirements, based on a valuation of the entire balance sheet; Pillar II-qualitative regulatory review, which includes governance, internal controls, enterprise risk management and supervisory review process; and Pillar III-market discipline, which is accomplished through reporting of the insurer’s financial condition to regulators and the public. Solvency II is supplemented by European Commission Delegated Regulation (E.U.) 2015/35 (the “Delegated Regulation”), other European Commission “delegated acts” and binding technical standards, and guidelines issued by the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority. The Delegated Regulation sets out detailed requirements for individual insurance and
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reinsurance undertakings, as well as for groups, based on the overarching provisions of Solvency II, which together make up the core of the single prudential rulebook for insurance and reinsurance undertakings in the EU.
Solvency II sets out stronger capital adequacy and risk management requirements for European insurers and reinsurers and, in particular, dictates how much capital such firms must hold against their liabilities and introduces a risk-based assessment of those liabilities. Solvency II imposes, among other things, substantially greater quantitative and qualitative capital requirements for insurers and reinsurers as well as other supervisory and disclosure requirements. We are not subject to Solvency II; however, many of our European insurer or reinsurer fund investors are subject to this directive, as applied under applicable domestic law. Solvency II may impact insurers’ and reinsurers’ investment decisions and their asset allocations. In addition, insurers and reinsurers will be subject to more onerous data collation and reporting requirements. As a result, there is the potential for Solvency II to have an adverse indirect effect on our businesses by, among other things, restricting the ability of European insurers and reinsurers to invest in our funds and imposing on us extensive disclosure and reporting obligations for those insurers and reinsurers that do invest in our funds. A broad review of Solvency II was carried out by the European Commission in 2020 (the “Solvency II 2020 review”), with input from the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (“EIOPA”). This included a related public consultation launched by the European Commission in July 2020. On December 17, 2020, EIOPA submitted its opinion on the Solvency II 2020 review to the European Commission. The Solvency II 2020 review is expected to result in amendments to various aspects of Solvency II, although the extent of such amendments is as yet unknown. Following this, on September 22, 2021, the European Commission published proposed legislation to amend the Solvency II Directive. The proposals are under review of the subject to the EU ordinary legislative process involving the European Parliament and the European Council, with the implementation date of the revised Solvency II Directive currently unknown. It is unclear at this stage the extent to which the proposed amendments to Solvency II will have an indirect effect on our businesses.
MiFID II . The recast Markets in Financial Instruments Directive and Markets in Financial Instruments Regulation (collectively referred to as “MiFID II”) came into effect on January 3, 2018. Although the UK has now withdrawn from the EU, its rules implementing the recast Markets in Financial Instruments Directive continue to have effect and the Markets in Financial Instruments Regulation has been on-shored into UK law (subject to certain amendments to ensure it operates properly in a UK-specific context) in connection with such withdrawal. MiFID II amended the existing MiFID regime and, among other requirements, introduced new organizational and conduct of business requirements for investment firms in the EEA. Certain requirements of MiFID II also apply to AIFMs with a MiFID “top-up” permission, such as AlpInvest.
MiFID II extended MiFID requirements in a number of areas such as the receipt and payment of inducements (including investment research), suitability and appropriateness assessments, conflicts of interest, record-keeping, costs and charges disclosures, best execution, product design and governance, and transaction and trade reporting. Under MiFID II, national competent authorities are also required to establish position limits in relation to the maximum size of positions which a relevant person can hold in certain commodity derivatives. The limits apply to contracts traded on trading venues and their economically equivalent OTC contracts. The position limits established, as amended from time to time, and our ability to rely on any exemption thereunder may affect the size and types of investments we may make. Failure to comply with MiFID II and its associated legislative acts could result in sanctions from national regulators, the loss of market access and a number of other adverse consequences which would have a detrimental impact on our business. Certain aspects of MIFID II and Markets in Financial Instruments Regulations (“MiFIR”) are subject to review and change in both the EU and the UK
Swiss Marketing Regulations . The Swiss Financial Services Act (FinSA) and the Financial Institution Act (FinIA) came into force on January 1, 2020 with a transition period that ended on December 31, 2021. FinSA seeks to protect clients of financial service providers and to establish comparable conditions for the provision of financial services by financial service providers (FSP), and thus contributes to enhancing the reputation and competitiveness of Switzerland's financial center. FinIA introduces coordinated supervision for the various categories of financial institutions: portfolio managers, trustees, managers of collective assets, fund management companies and securities firms. The new Swiss regulations have an impact on the offering and marketing foreign investment fund shares into Switzerland on a cross-border basis and creates new requirements for financial service providers.
Anti-Money Laundering. During 2020, two new EU Anti-Money Laundering (AML) Directives came into force: the fifth AML EU Directive (AMLD5) and the sixth AML EU Directive (AMLD6). AMLD5 was implemented into UK law on January 10, 2020. The changes under AMLD5 include: new more stringent customer due diligence measures and requirements to report discrepancies between information held and the Companies House register and to conduct risk assessments prior to the launch or use of new products, and business practices. AMLD5 has added complexity to our internal processes and any perceived shortcomings in our adoption of AMLD5 could create reputational risks to our business. AMLD6 harmonizes the definition of money laundering across the EU, expands the number of offenses that fall under the definition of money laundering and extends criminal liability to include punishments for legal persons, including partnership entities. On July 20, 2021, the European Commission presented an ambitious package of legislative proposals to strengthen the EU’s anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) rules, including the creation of a new pan-EU supervisory authority to combat money laundering. The UK government has not yet implemented AMLD6.
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Securitization Regulation. Regulation (EU) 2017/2402 (the “Securitization Regulation”) is a new framework for European securitizations which came into effect on January 1, 2019. There is a risk that a non-EU AIFM that markets funds in the EU which invest in securitization positions could be within scope of certain requirements under the Securitization Regulation. To the extent a non-EU AIFM is within the scope of the Securitization Regulation, it could only hold a securitization exposure where the originator, sponsor or original lender retains 5% of the securitization. If our non-EU AIFMs fall within the scope of the Securitization Regulation, it could affect the asset values of certain of our funds, force divestment of certain assets at depressed prices, and increase the operating cost of our CLOs. The UK has adopted the Securitization Regulation and therefore similar requirements continue to apply in the UK notwithstanding Brexit.
Sustainable Finance . We, our funds and their portfolio companies face increasing public scrutiny related to ESG activities. We and they risk damage to our brand and reputation, if we or they fail to act responsibly in a number of areas, such as diversity, equity and inclusion, environmental stewardship, support for local communities, corporate governance and transparency and considering ESG factors in our investment processes. Adverse incidents with respect to ESG activities could impact the value of our brand, or the brand of our funds or their portfolio companies, the cost of our or their operations and relationships with investors, all of which could adversely affect our business and results of operations.
Additionally, new regulatory initiatives related to ESG that are applicable to us, our funds and their portfolio companies could adversely affect our business. In May 2018, the European Commission adopted an “action plan on financing sustainable growth.” The action plan is, among other things, designed to define and reorient investment toward sustainability. The action plan contemplates: establishing EU labels for green financial products; clarifying asset managers' and institutional investors' duties regarding sustainability in their investment decision-making processes; increasing disclosure requirements in the financial services sector around ESG and strengthening the transparency of companies on their ESG policies and introducing a ‘green supporting factor’ in the EU prudential rules for banks and insurance companies to incorporate climate risks into banks’ and insurance companies’ risk management policies.
A number of these initiatives are underway and on December 9, 2019, Regulation (EU) 2019/2088 on sustainability-related disclosures in the financial sector was published in the Official Journal of the European Union (the “Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation” or “SFDR”). SFDR introduces mandatory sustainability-related transparency requirements for MiFID investment firms providing portfolio management or investment advisory services, and AIFMs. The majority of the provisions of SFDR have applied since March 10, 2021. For us, this primarily impacts our AIFMs by requiring certain firm-level website disclosures regarding how sustainability risks are integrated into investment processes and remuneration practices. In addition, fund-level disclosures are required in relation to the integration of sustainability risks into investment decisions and potential impacts on fund returns. From January 1, 2022, further disclosures in periodic reports are required and, from January 1, 2023 certain template pre-contractual and periodic disclosures must be adopted.
Further, firms that offer financial products (such as AIFs) that promote environmental or social characteristics, or which have a sustainable investment objective, will also need to comply with additional disclosure and periodic reporting requirements that are broadly designed to prevent firms from “greenwashing” (i.e., the holding out of a product as having green or sustainable characteristics where this is not, in fact, the case). There is a risk that a significant reorientation in the market following the implementation of these and further measures could be adverse to our portfolio companies if they are perceived to be less valuable as a consequence of, among other things, their carbon footprint or “greenwashing.” There is also a risk that market expectations in relation to the SFDR categorization of financial products could adversely affect our ability to raise capital.
In addition, on June 22, 2020, Regulation (EU) 2020/852 on the establishment of a framework to facilitate sustainable investment was published in the Official Journal of the European Union (the “Taxonomy Regulation”). The Taxonomy Regulation sets out a framework for classifying economic activities as “environmentally sustainable” and also introduces certain mandatory disclosure and reporting requirements (which supplement those set out in SFDR) for financial products that have an environmentally sustainable investment objective or that promote environmental characteristics. The Taxonomy Regulation takes effect in part from January 2022 and in part from January 2023.
A significant amount of detail surrounding these EU sustainable finance initiatives is yet to be revealed and has been further delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic so it is not possible at this stage to fully assess how our business will be affected. We, our funds and their portfolio companies are subject to the risk that similar measures might be introduced in other jurisdictions in which we or they currently have investments or plan to invest in the future. Additionally, compliance with any new laws or regulations increases our regulatory burden and could make compliance more difficult and expensive, affect the manner in which we, our funds or their portfolio companies conduct our businesses and adversely affect our profitability.
The UK intends to introduce a new legislative framework focused on implementing the recommendations of the Financial Stability Board Taskforce on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (“TCFD”), in particular by introducing mandatory TCFD-aligned disclosure requirements for UK firms. The FCA published a policy statement with the near-finalized rules on
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December 17, 2021. The rules capture asset managers including, so far as relevant, certain private fund advisors such as CECP and investment portfolio managers such as CELF, as well as insurers and FCA-regulated pension providers. For the largest in-scope firms (those with over £50 billion in AUM), the rules apply from January 1 2022, with the first public disclosures to be made by June 30, 2023. For those below this threshold but above £5 billion in AUM, the rules will apply from January 1, 2023, with disclosures to be made by June 30, 2024. The impact of this new regime to our business is currently under review.
In addition, the UK FCA is consulting on additional sustainability disclosure requirements and sustainability labels for investment products. The FCA published a discussion paper on November 3, 2021, proposing a three-tiered system with different levels of disclosures targeted at different types of investors and different classifications for products according to their sustainability activities and objectives. The FCA is also considering whether to introduce specific sustainability-related requirements for financial advisors and how (if at all) the regime should apply to funds that are being marketed into the UK. A consultation paper is expected to be published in the second quarter of 2022, with the date of application of these new requirements and the full detail of them yet to be provided. We will monitor these developments and how they may impact our businesses.
Leveraged Transactions. In May 2017, the European Central Bank (“ECB”) issued guidance on leveraged transactions which applies to significant credit institutions supervised by the ECB in member states of the Euro zone. Under the guidance, credit institutions should have in place internal policies that include a definition of “leveraged transactions”. Loans or credit exposures to a borrower should be regarded as leveraged transactions if: (i) the borrower’s post-financing level of leverage exceeds a total debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.0 times; or (ii) the borrower is owned by one or more “financial sponsors”. For these purposes, a financial sponsor is an investment firm that undertakes private equity investments in and/or leveraged buyouts of companies. Following these guidelines, credit institutions in the Euro zone could in the future limit, delay or restrict the availability of credit and/or increase the cost of credit for our investment funds or portfolio companies involved in leveraged transactions. This policy area remains under close scrutiny and further guidance could be issued on short notice in the future.
CSPD . In March 2018, the European Commission published a proposal for a new directive governing credit servicers, credit purchasers and the recovery of collateral in connection with loans (the “Credit Servicers and Purchasers Directive” or “CSPD”). The policy aim behind the CSPD is the development of a well-functioning secondary market for non-performing loans. The CSPD was finalized and published in the Official Journal of the European Union on December 8, 2021 and entered into force on December 28, 2021. Member States are required to adopt and apply measures implementing the CSPD by December 30, 2023 and entities carrying on credit servicing activities from December 30, 2023 will be required to obtain authorization under the CSPD by June 29, 2024.
The CSPD applies to, among others, “credit servicers” and “credit purchasers” and would impose a number of new requirements relating to licensing, conduct of business and provision of information. The definition of “credit servicer” in the Commission proposal is sufficiently broad that it could be construed to include asset managers. The Directive prima facie limits the scope of the requirements for credit servicers and credit purchasers to the servicing or purchasing of credit agreements originally issued by a credit institution established in the EU or its subsidiaries established in the EU. This is subject however, to individual Member State discretion. Such Member States may choose to extend the CSPD requirements to credit agreements that are not issued by an EU credit institution. Subject to the aforementioned potential extension of scope by individual Member States, the servicing of loans originally advanced by credit funds (rather than, for example, an EU bank) will fall outside the scope of the CSPD. Asset managers are unlikely to act as principal credit purchasers. However, they may purchase in-scope credit agreements as agent on behalf of the funds or separately managed accounts for whom they are acting and therefore may in practice be required to discharge the associated obligations on behalf of underlying clients. Compliance with these rules could involve a material cost to our business.
Hong Kong Security Law. On June 30, 2020, the National People’s Congress of China passed a national security law (the “National Security Law”), which criminalizes certain offenses including secession, subversion of the Chinese government, terrorism and collusion with foreign entities. The National Security Law also applies to non-permanent residents. Although the extra-territorial reach of the National Security Law remains unclear, there is a risk that the application of the National Security Law to conduct outside Hong Kong by non-permanent residents of Hong Kong could limit the activities of or negatively affect the Company, our investment funds and/or portfolio companies. The National Security Law has been condemned by the United States, the United Kingdom and several EU countries. The United States and other countries may take action against China, its leaders and leaders of Hong Kong, which may include the imposition of sanctions. Escalation of tensions resulting from the National Security Law, including conflict between China and other countries, protests and other government measures, as well as other economic, social or political unrest in the future, could adversely impact the security and stability of the region and may have a material adverse effect on countries in which the Company, our investment funds and portfolio companies or any of their respective personnel or assets are located. In addition, any downturn in Hong Kong’s economy could adversely affect the financial performance of the Company and our investments, or could have a significant impact on the industries in which the Company participates, and may adversely affect the operations of the Company, its investment funds and portfolio companies, including the retention of investment and other key professionals located in Hong Kong.
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Chinese Regulations. In August 2014, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (the “CSRC”), the Chinese securities regulator, promulgated the Interim Regulations on the Supervision and Administration of Private Investment Funds (the “CSRC Regulations”). The CSRC Regulations adopt a very broad definition of private investment funds, including private equity funds. In accordance with the CSRC Regulations and other relevant PRC laws, regulations and authorizations, the CSRC has become the principal regulator of private equity funds in China. In December 2020, the CSRC further promulgated Several Provisions on Strengthening the Regulation of Private Investment Funds, pursuant to which the CSRC strengthened its regulations on private investment funds and private investment fund managers. CSRC has designated that the Asset Management Association of China (the “AMAC”), an industry body, with responsibility to introduce and promote regulations towards a degree of self-regulation across private equity funds in China. In recent years, regulations, directives and guidelines from the AMAC have continued to regulate private investment funds incorporated in China. For example, during the course of 2016, the AMAC issued “ Guidelines for Internal Control of Privately-raised Investment Fund Managers” (February, 2016), “ Administrative Measures for Information Disclosure of Privately-raised Investment Fund” (February, 2016), “ Announcement on Further Regulating Relevant Matters Concerning the Registration of the Managers of the Privately-Raised Funds” (February, 2016), “ Measures for the Administration of Private Placement of Private Investment Funds” (April, 2016), “ Private Equity Fund Contract Guidelines No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3” ( April, 2016), “Administrative Measures for Private Investment Fund Services” (March, 2017), “Implementing Guidelines on the Administration of Investor Suitability for Fund Raising Institutions” (July, 2017), “ Guidelines on the Valuation of the Private Equity Investments of Privately-raised Investment Funds (for Trial Implementation) ” (July, 2018), “ Guidelines on the Name of Privately-raised Investment Funds ” (November, 2018), “ Notice on Privately-raised Fund Manager Registration ” (December, 2018), “ Notice on Privately-raised Investment Fund Filing ” (December, 2019), “ Notice on Facilitating the Application of Privately-raised Fund Manager Registration ” (February, 2020), “ Notice on Strengthening the Self-Regulatory Management of Privately-raised Fund Information Submission and Optimizing Industry Services ” (February, 2021), in addition to the regulations and directives from the CSRC and the AMAC. If a private equity fund wishes to accept capital contributions from a PRC governmental body or authority then that fund will also need to subject itself (including specific conditions as regards the general partner and/or the private investment fund manager) to the supervision of the National Development and Reform Commission (the “NDRC”). If a private equity fund wishes to accept capital contributions from a PRC insurance company then that fund will also need to subject itself (including specific conditions as regards the general partner and/or the private investment fund manager) to the supervision of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (the “CBIRC”). In accordance with the NDRC’s regulations on governmental fund of funds’ participation in equity investment funds, and/or the CBIRC’s regulations on insurance companies, the private investment fund is subject to requirements relating to the industry focus, investment scope, investment restrictions, risk control and information disclosure. The general partner and/or the private investment fund manager are also subject to additional restrictions and qualification requirements and are required to fulfill reporting and filing obligations to the NDRC and/or the CBIRC (in addition to any reporting or filing obligations to the CSRC, the AMAC, local financial bureaus or others). These regulations may have an adverse effect on us and/or our renminbi ( RMB)-denominated investment funds by, among other things, increasing the regulatory burden and costs of raising money for RMB-denominated investment funds if we admit investors that are regulated by the above regulators.
Data Privacy. Many foreign countries and governmental bodies, including the European Union and other relevant jurisdictions where Carlyle and our portfolio companies conduct business, have laws and regulations concerning the collection and use of PII and other data obtained from their residents or by businesses operating within their jurisdiction that are more restrictive than, and could in some cases conflict with, those in the U.S. See “—Laws and regulations relating to privacy, data protection, data transfers, data localization, and data security worldwide may limit the use and adoption of our services and adversely affect our business” for more information.
Other Similar Measures. Our investment businesses are subject to the risk that similar measures might be introduced in other countries in which our investment funds currently have investments or plan to invest in the future, or that other legislative or regulatory measures that negatively affect their respective portfolio investments might be promulgated in any of the countries in which they invest. The reporting related to such initiatives may divert the attention of our personnel and the management teams of our portfolio companies. Moreover, sensitive business information relating to us or our portfolio companies could be publicly released.
See “—Risks Related to Our Business Operations — Our investment funds make investments in companies that are based outside of the United States, which may expose us to additional risks not typically associated with investing in companies that are based in the United States” and Item 1. “Busin e ss—Regulatory and Compliance Matters” for more information.
Changing regulations regarding derivatives and commodity interest transactions could adversely impact various aspects of our business .
The regulation of derivatives and commodity interest transactions in the United States and other countries is a rapidly changing area of law and is subject to ongoing modification by governmental and judicial action. We and our affiliates enter into derivatives transactions for various purposes, including to manage the financial risks related to our business. Accordingly, the impact of this evolving regulatory regime on our business is difficult to predict, but it could be substantial and adverse.
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Managers of certain pooled investment vehicles with exposure to certain types of derivatives may be required to register with the CFTC as commodity pool operators (“CPOs”) and/or commodity trading advisors (“CTAs”) and become members of the National Futures Association (the “NFA”). As such, certain of our or our subsidiaries’ risk management or other commodities interest-related activities may be subject to CFTC oversight. Consequently, certain CFTC rules expose global investment firms, such as us, to increased registration and reporting requirements in connection with transactions in futures, swaps and other derivatives regulated by the CFTC. These regulations have required us to reassess certain business practices related to our pooled vehicles, consider registration of certain entities with the CFTC or file for additional exemptions from such registration requirements. In addition, as a result of their derivatives-related activities, certain of our entities also may be subject to a wide range of other regulatory requirements, such as:
• potential compliance with certain commodities interest position limits or position accountability rules;
• administrative requirements, including recordkeeping, confirmation of transactions and reconciliation of trade data; and
• mandatory central clearing and collateral requirements. Our business may incur increased ongoing costs associated with monitoring compliance with the CFTC registration and exemption obligations across platforms and complying with the various reporting and record-keeping requirements.
Newly instituted and amended regulations could significantly increase the cost of entering into derivative contracts (including through requirements to post collateral which could adversely affect our available liquidity), materially alter the terms of derivative contracts, reduce the availability of derivatives to protect against risks that we encounter, reduce our ability to restructure our existing derivative contracts, and increase our exposure to less creditworthy counterparties. If we reduce our use of derivatives as a result of such regulations (and any new regulations), our results of operations may become more volatile and our cash flows may be less predictable, which could adversely affect our ability to satisfy our debt obligations or plan for and fund capital expenditures.
The replacement of LIBOR with an alternative reference rate may adversely affect our credit arrangements and our collateralized loan obligation transactions.
London Inter-Bank Offered Rate (“LIBOR”) and certain other “benchmarks” are the subject of recent national, international, and other regulatory guidance and proposals for reform. These reforms have resulted in plans to phase out and eventually replace LIBOR which may cause such benchmarks to perform differently than in the past or have other consequences which cannot be predicted.
On November 30, 2020, the FCA, which regulates LIBOR, announced that subject to confirmation following its consultation with the administrator of LIBOR, it would cease publication of the one-week and two-month USD LIBOR immediately after December 31, 2021, and cease publication of the remaining tenors immediately after June 30, 2023. Additionally, the Federal Reserve Board has advised banks to stop entering into new USD LIBOR-based contracts. As a result of the phasing out of this benchmark, interest rates on our floating rate obligations, loans, deposits, derivatives, and other financial instruments tied to LIBOR rates, as well as the revenue and expenses associated with those financial instruments, may be adversely affected. The U.S. Federal Reserve, in conjunction with the Alternative Reference Rates Committee, has recommended replacing USD LIBOR with a new reference rate derived from short-term repurchase agreements backed by Treasury securities, the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (“SOFR”). However, certain market constituencies have criticized SOFR’s suitability as a LIBOR replacement, and the extent of SOFR-based instruments issued or trading in the market remains a fraction of LIBOR-based instruments. As such, there remains uncertainty regarding the future utilization of SOFR, LIBOR and other “IBORS,” and the nature of any replacement rates.
It is unclear what methods of calculating a replacement benchmark will be established or adopted generally, and whether different industry bodies, such as the loan market and the derivatives market will adopt the same methodologies. To address the transition away from LIBOR, we have amended our credit agreements and related loan documentation to provide for an agreed upon methodology to calculate new benchmark rate spreads, but there are as yet no comparable forward-looking benchmarks for the various LIBOR tenors. The calculation of interest rates under the replacement benchmarks could negatively impact our business and financial results. We are assessing the impact of the transition; however, we cannot reasonably estimate the impact of the transition at this time.
We are carefully evaluating our CLOs to identify any discrepancy between the interest rate an issuer pays on its liabilities compared to the interest rate on the underlying assets, or the amounts payable under a derivative used to hedge its currency or interest rate exposure. For our more recent generation of CLOs, we have incorporated provisions to address the transition from LIBOR, however certain older CLOs have not yet come up for amendment or refinancing, and as such may not currently contain clear LIBOR transition procedures. In January 2022, we priced our first CLO to SOFR, which the industry has
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generally adopted to replace LIBOR. As the market fully transitions from LIBOR, we expect that there will be short-term rate mismatches, which could adversely impact the returns on our CLOs.
If the transition from LIBOR results in an overall increase to borrowing costs, higher interest expense could negatively affect the financial results and valuations of our funds’ portfolio companies. In addition, uncertainty with respect to reference rates may delay the implementation of related systems and processes necessary to process financial instruments. There is no guarantee that a transition from LIBOR to an alternative will not result in financial market disruptions, significant increases or volatility in risk-free benchmark rates, or borrowing costs to borrowers, any of which could have a material adverse effect on our business, result of operations, financial condition, and share price.
We are subject to substantial litigation risks and may face significant liabilities and damage to our professional reputation as a result of litigation allegations and negative publicity.
In the ordinary course of business, we are subject to the risk of substantial litigation and face significant regulatory oversight. In recent years, the volume of claims and the amount of potential damages claimed in such proceedings against the financial services industry have generally been increasing. The investment decisions we make in our asset management business and the activities of our investment professionals on behalf of portfolio companies of our carry funds may subject them and us to the risk of third-party litigation arising from investor dissatisfaction with the performance of those investment funds, alleged conflicts of interest, the activities of our portfolio companies and a variety of other litigation claims and regulatory inquiries and actions. From time to time we and our portfolio companies have been and may be subject to regulatory actions and shareholder class action suits relating to transactions in which we have agreed to acquire public companies.
To the extent that investors in our investment funds suffer losses resulting from fraud, gross negligence, willful misconduct or other similar misconduct, investors may have remedies against us, our investment funds, our principals or our affiliates. Heightened standards of care or additional fiduciary duties may apply in certain of our managed accounts or other advisory contracts. To the extent we enter into agreements with clients containing such terms or applicable law mandates a heightened standard of care or duties, we could, for example, be liable to certain clients for acts of simple negligence or breach of such duties, which might include the allocation of a client’s funds to our affiliated funds. Even in the absence of misconduct, we may be exposed to litigation or other adverse consequences where investments perform poorly and investors in or alongside our funds experience losses. The general partners and investment advisers to our investment funds, including their directors, officers, other employees and affiliates, are generally indemnified with respect to their conduct in connection with the management of the business and affairs of our investment funds.
Defending against litigation could be costly. Such litigation costs may not be recoverable from insurance or other indemnification. Carlyle has recovered significant amounts of insurance proceeds in recent years. As a general matter, we expect that the cost of insurance will increase significantly, and we do not believe we will recover the same amount of insurance proceeds as we have in prior years. Further, we note that in connection with the prohibited activities rule under the SEC Proposed Rule discussed above, if such rule were to be enacted, it could substantially increase our exposure to litigation generally, including by way of a simple negligence standard as opposed to a gross negligence standard.
The laws and regulations governing the limited liability of such issuers and portfolio companies vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, and in certain contexts the laws of certain jurisdictions may provide not only for carve-outs from limited liability protection for the issuer or portfolio company that has incurred the liabilities, but also for recourse to assets of other entities under common control with, or that are part of the same economic group as, such issuer. For example, if one of our portfolio companies is subject to bankruptcy or insolvency proceedings in a jurisdiction and is found to have liabilities under the local consumer protection, labor, tax or bankruptcy laws, the laws of that jurisdiction may permit authorities or creditors to file a lien on, or to otherwise have recourse to, assets held by other portfolio companies (including the Company) in that jurisdiction. There can be no assurance that the Company will not be adversely affected as a result of the foregoing risks.
If any litigation or regulatory actions were brought against us and resulted in a finding of substantial legal liability, the lawsuit could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations or financial condition or cause significant reputational harm to us, which could materially impact our business. Recently there has been an elevated level of focus put on our industry and companies in which our funds are invested, including increased focus on externalities of business activities such as ESG considerations. See “—Risks Related to Our Company—Extensive regulation in the United States and abroad affects our activities, increases the cost of doing business and creates the potential for significant liabilities and penalties.” We depend to a large extent on our business relationships and our reputation for integrity and high-caliber professional services to attract and retain investors and to pursue investment opportunities for our funds. As a result, allegations of improper conduct by private litigants (including investors in or alongside our funds), regulators or employees, whether the ultimate outcome is favorable or unfavorable to us, as well as negative publicity and press speculation about us, our investment activities, the private equity industry in general or our workplace, whether or not valid, may harm our reputation, which may be more damaging to our business than to other types of businesses.
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In addition, with a workforce composed of many highly paid professionals, we face the risk of litigation relating to claims for compensation, which may, individually or in the aggregate, be significant in amount. The cost of settling any such claims could negatively impact our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Employee misconduct or fraud could harm us and subject us to significant legal liability and reputational harm, which could impair our ability to attract and retain investors in our funds. Fraud, other deceptive practices or other misconduct at our portfolio companies could similarly subject us to liability and reputational damage and also harm performance.
There have been a number of highly publicized cases involving fraud or other misconduct by employees in the financial services industry in recent years, and there is a risk that our employees or advisors could engage in misconduct or fraud that adversely affects our business. Misconduct or fraud by employees, advisors or other third-party service providers could cause significant losses. Employee misconduct or fraud could include, among other things, binding the Company to transactions that exceed authorized limits or present unacceptable risks and other unauthorized activities or concealing unsuccessful investments (which, in either case, may result in unknown and unmanaged risks or losses), or otherwise charging (or seeking to charge) inappropriate expenses or engaging in inappropriate or unlawful behavior or actions directed towards other employees. It is not always possible to deter misconduct or fraud by employees or service providers, and the precautions we take to detect and prevent this activity may not be effective in all cases. In the current remote work environment we may have less of an ability to supervise our employees, which could expose us to an enhanced risk of misconduct or fraud.
Our ability to attract and retain investors and to pursue investment opportunities for our investment funds depends heavily upon the reputation of our professionals, especially our senior Carlyle professionals. Because of our diverse business and the regulatory regimes under which we operate, we are subject to a number of obligations and standards (and related policies and procedures) arising from our asset management business and our authority over the assets managed by our asset management business. The violation of these obligations and standards (and related policies and procedures) by any of our employees would adversely affect us and our investment funds and investors. For example, we could lose our ability to raise new investment funds if any of our “covered persons” is the subject of a criminal, regulatory or court order or other “disqualifying event. See “—Extensive regulation in the United States and abroad affects our activities, increases the cost of doing business and creates the potential for significant liabilities and penalties.” In addition, in certain jurisdictions, we may be liable for certain social media statements made by our employees. For example, any statements an employee makes online in a personal capacity (whether or not such employee identifies online as an employee of the Company) could still be attributed to Carlyle under certain regulations. Expressing personal views in a way that implies corporate endorsement could create misunderstandings and have adverse consequences for us and our employees.
Our business often requires that we deal with confidential matters of great significance to companies in which our investment funds may invest. If our employees, advisors or other third-party service providers were to use or disclose confidential information improperly, we could suffer serious harm to our reputation, financial position and current and future business relationships, as well as face potentially significant litigation. It is not always possible to detect or deter employee misconduct or fraud, including financial fraud, the misappropriation of funds of our business or our investment funds or inappropriate or unlawful behavior or actions directed toward other employees, and the extensive precautions we take to detect and prevent this activity may not be effective in all cases. If any of our employees were to engage in misconduct or fraud or were to be accused of such misconduct or fraud, whether or not substantiated, our business and our reputation could be adversely affected and a loss of investor confidence could result, which would adversely impact our ability to raise future funds.
In recent years, the U.S. Department of Justice (the “DOJ”) and the SEC have devoted greater resources to enforcement of the FCPA. In addition, the United Kingdom and other jurisdictions have significantly expanded the reach of their anti-bribery laws. While we have developed and implemented policies and procedures designed to ensure compliance by us and our personnel with the FCPA and the UK anti-bribery laws, such policies and procedures may not be effective in all instances to prevent violations. Any determination that we have violated the FCPA, the UK anti-bribery laws or other applicable anticorruption laws could subject us to, among other things, civil and criminal penalties, material fines, profit disgorgement, injunctions on future conduct, securities litigation and a general loss of investor confidence, any one of which could adversely affect our business prospects, financial position or the market value of our common stock.
In addition, we will also be adversely affected if there is fraud, other deceptive practices or other misconduct by personnel of the portfolio companies in which our funds invest, including such activities that predate our acquisition of the portfolio company. For example, improper or illegal conduct by personnel at our portfolio companies or failure by such personnel to comply with anti-bribery, trade sanctions, anti-harassment, legal and regulatory requirements could adversely affect our business and reputation. Such misconduct or fraud could also undermine any due diligence efforts with respect to such companies and could negatively affect the valuation of a fund’s investments.
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Certain policies and procedures implemented to mitigate potential conflicts of interest and address certain regulatory requirements may reduce the synergies across our various businesses and inhibit our ability to maintain our collaborative culture.
We consider our “One Carlyle” philosophy and the ability of our professionals to communicate and collaborate across funds, industries and geographies one of our significant competitive strengths. As a result of the expansion of our platform into various lines of business in the asset management industry, our acquisition of new businesses, and the growth of our managed account business, we are subject to a number of actual and potential conflicts of interest and subject to greater regulatory oversight than that to which we would otherwise be subject if we had just one line of business. In addition, as we continue to expand our platform, the allocation of investment opportunities among our investment funds is expected to become more complex. In addressing these conflicts and regulatory requirements across our various businesses, we have and may continue to implement certain policies and procedures (for example, information barriers). As a practical matter, the establishment and maintenance of such information barriers means that collaboration between our investment professionals across various platforms or with respect to certain investments may be limited, reducing potential synergies that we cultivate across these businesses through our “One Carlyle” approach. For example, although we maintain ultimate control over the Global Investment Solutions segment’s constituent firm, AlpInvest, we have erected an information barrier between the management teams at AlpInvest and the rest of Carlyle. See “—Risks Related to Our Business Operations—Our Global Investment Solutions business is subject to additional risks.” In addition, we may come into possession of material, non-public information with respect to issuers in which we may be considering making an investment. As a consequence, we may be precluded from providing such information or other ideas to our other businesses that could benefit from such information.
Risks Related to Our Business Operations
Poor performance of our investment funds would cause a decline in our revenue, income and cash flow, may obligate us to repay carried interest previously paid to us, and could adversely affect our ability to raise capital for future investment funds.
In the event that any of our investment funds were to perform poorly, our revenue, income and cash flow could decline. Investors could also demand lower fees or fee concessions for existing or future funds which would likewise decrease our revenue or require us to record an impairment of intangible assets and/or goodwill in the case of an acquired business. In some of our funds, such as our carry funds, a reduction in the value of the portfolio investments held in such funds could result in a reduction in the carried interest we earn or in our management fees. In our CLOs, defaults or downgrades of the CLOs’ underlying collateral obligations could cause failures of certain over collateralization tests and the potential for insufficient funds to pay expected management fees on any such CLO, which would result in either a temporary deferral or permanent loss of such management fees. See “—Our CLO business and investment into CLOs involves certain risks.”
We also could experience losses on our investment of our own capital into our funds as a result of poor performance by our investment funds. If, as a result of poor performance of later investments in a carry fund’s life, the fund does not achieve certain investment returns for the fund over its life, we will be obligated to repay the amount by which carried interest that was previously distributed to us exceeds the amount to which we are ultimately entitled. These repayment obligations may be related to amounts previously distributed to our senior Carlyle professionals prior to the completion of our initial public offering, with respect to which our stockholders did not receive any benefit. See “—We may need to pay “giveback” obligations if and when they are triggered under the governing agreements with our investors” and Note 10 to our consolidated financial statements included in Part II. Item 8. to this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
Poor performance of our investment funds may also make it more difficult for us to raise new capital. Investors in our funds might decline to invest in future investment funds we raise. Investors and potential investors in our funds continually assess our investment funds’ performance, and our ability to raise capital for existing and future investment funds and avoid excessive redemption levels will depend on our investment funds’ continued satisfactory performance. Accordingly, poor fund performance may deter future investment in our funds and thereby decrease the capital invested in our funds and ultimately, our management fee income.
Our asset management business depends in large part on our ability to raise capital from third-party investors. If we are unable to raise capital from third-party investors, we would be unable to collect management fees or deploy their capital into investments and potentially collect carried interest, which would materially reduce our revenue and cash flow and adversely affect our financial condition.
We raised $51.3 billion in new capital commitments in 2021 driven by the launch of our ninth U.S. real estate fund, eighth U.S. buyout fund and our CP Growth fund in our Global Private Equity segment, coupled with continued strength in fundraising for our Global Credit and Global Investment Solutions funds. However, we cannot assure that our prior success in raising capital will continue in the future. Our ability to raise capital from third-party investors depends on a number of factors, including certain factors that are outside our control. Certain of these factors such as the performance of the stock market, the
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pace of distributions from our funds and from the funds of other asset managers or the asset allocation rules or regulations or investment policies to which such third-party investors are subject, could inhibit or restrict the ability of third-party investors to make investments in our investment funds. Third-party investors in private equity, real assets and private credit funds typically use distributions from prior investments to meet future capital calls. In cases where valuations of existing investments fall, the investment pace is delayed and the pace of distributions slows, investors may be unable or unwilling to make new commitments or fund existing commitments to third-party management investment funds such as those advised by us. Moreover, recently many funds sponsored by Carlyle and its competitors have invested more rapidly than in the past. As a result, investors may delay making new commitments until such time these investments start distributing capital.
Although many investors have increased and signaled that they expect to maintain the amount of commitments they are making to alternative investment funds, there can be no assurance that historical or current levels of commitments to our funds will continue. For example, there is a continuing shift away from defined benefit pension plans to defined contributions plans, which could reduce the amount of assets available for us to manage on behalf of certain of our clients. In addition, investors may downsize their investment allocations to alternative managers, including private funds and funds of funds vehicles, to rebalance a disproportionate weighting of their overall investment portfolio among asset classes. Investors may also seek to consolidate their investments with a smaller number of investment managers or prefer to pursue investments directly instead of investing through our funds, each of which could impact the amount of allocations they make to our funds. Moreover, as some existing investors cease or significantly curtail making commitments to alternative investment funds, we may need to identify and attract new investors in order to maintain or increase the size of our investment funds. The ongoing changes in international and domestic tax regulations, including BEPS, may adversely impact the tax neutrality of our funds, which could in turn limit investment in our funds from certain classes of investors. We are working to create avenues through which we expect to attract a new base of individual investors. There can be no assurances that we can find or secure commitments from those new investors. Our ability to raise new funds could similarly be hampered if the general appeal of private equity and alternative investments were to decline.
An investment in a private equity, credit or real estate fund is more illiquid and the returns on such investment may be more volatile than an investment in securities for which there is a more active and transparent market. Private equity, credit and real estate investments could fall into disfavor as a result of concerns about liquidity and short-term performance. Such concerns could be exhibited, in particular, by public pension funds, which have historically been among the largest investors in alternative assets. Concerns with liquidity could cause such public pension funds to reevaluate the appropriateness of alternative investments.
In addition, the evolving preferences of our fund investors may necessitate that alternatives to the traditional investment fund structure, such as managed accounts, smaller funds and co-investment vehicles, become a larger part of our business going forward. Certain investors have also implemented or may implement restrictions against investing in certain types of asset classes such as fossil fuels, which would affect our ability to raise new funds focused on those asset classes, such as funds focused on conventional energy or natural resources, and which could have a negative impact on our ability to exit certain of our energy investments, or our ability to invest capital in our conventional energy funds. Funds focused on investing in carbon-based energy (“Carbon Energy Funds”) remain a significant part of our business (8% of total AUM) so the persistence of weakened market fundamentals in the energy sector could translate into future performance below investor expectations which, together with negative sentiments around carbon energy funds, could result in less investor demand for these funds in the future. Carlyle has determined not to raise a successor fund to Carlyle Energy Mezzanine Opportunities Fund II or Carlyle Power Partners II. Carlyle’s future investments in carbon-based energy are expected to be made primarily through NGP in the United States and Carlyle International Energy Partners outside the United States. If we were unable to raise the next generation of our energy related funds, at the same levels or at all, our fee-paying AUM and future management fees could be adversely impacted. This could increase our cost of raising capital at the scale we have historically achieved. Our investment in NGP entitles us to 55% of the management fee-related revenue of the NGP entities that serve as advisors to the NGP Energy Funds and is subject to impairment under the U.S. GAAP accounting for equity method investments. We evaluate our equity method investment in NGP for impairment whenever events or changes in circumstances indicate that the carrying amount of the investment may not be recoverable, but no less than quarterly. For example, challenges with fundraising or lower future management fees could cause an impairment of our investment in NGP in the future. As of December 31, 2021, we continue to believe that our investment in NGP is not impaired.
Further, fund investors and shareholders are increasingly focused on ESG matters and certain fund investors consider ESG factors in determining whether to invest in our funds and our common stock. In addition, some fund investors use third-party benchmarks or scores to measure our ESG practices and decide whether to invest in our funds, and capital commitments to us and may condition capital commitments on taking or refraining from taking certain actions. Investors and stockholders may choose not to invest in our funds or exclude our common stock from their investments if our ESG practices do not fit their investment profiles, or if we fail to demonstrate progress towards our ESG goals, which could adversely impact our reputation our ability to raise capital and could cause the price of our common stock to decrease.
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The failure to successfully raise capital commitments to new investment funds may also expose us to credit risk in respect of financing that we may provide such funds. When existing capital commitments to a new investment fund are insufficient to fund in full a new investment fund’s participation in a transaction, we may lend money to or borrow money from financial institutions on behalf of such investment funds to bridge this difference and repay this financing with capital from subsequent investors to the fund. Our inability to identify and secure capital commitments from new investors to these funds may expose us to losses (in the case of money that we lend directly to such funds) or adversely impact our ability to repay such borrowings or otherwise have an adverse impact on our liquidity position. Finally, if we seek to expand into other business lines, we may also be unable to raise a sufficient amount of capital to adequately support such businesses. The failure of our investment funds to raise capital in sufficient amounts could result in a decrease in our AUM as well as management fee and transaction fee revenue, or could result in a decline in the rate of growth of our AUM and management fee and transaction fee revenue, any of which could have a material adverse impact on our revenues and financial condition. Our past experience with growth of AUM provides no assurance with respect to the future.
Our investors may negotiate to pay us lower management fees and the economic terms of our future funds may be less favorable to us than those of our existing funds, which could adversely affect our revenues.
In connection with raising new funds or securing additional investments in existing funds, we negotiate terms for such funds and investments with existing and potential investors. The outcome of such negotiations could result in our agreement to terms that are materially less favorable to us than the terms of prior funds we have advised or funds advised by our competitors. Such terms could restrict our ability to raise investment funds with investment objectives or strategies that compete with existing funds, reduce fee revenues we earn, reduce the percentage of profits on third-party capital that we share in or add expenses and obligations for us in managing the fund or increase our potential liabilities, all of which could ultimately reduce our profitability. Additionally, a change in terms which increases the amount of fee revenue the fund investors are entitled to could result in a significant decline in revenue generated from transaction fees. For instance, our more recent generations of U.S., Europe and Asia buyout funds have increased the percentage of transaction fees that are shared with fund investors from 80% to 100% of the fees we generate. Given this change in terms, and to the extent we change our fee practices for other successor funds, we could experience a meaningful decline in the amount of transaction fee revenue we earn. In particular, if our fund investors do not continue to agree that we are permitted to retain fees we derive from capital markets transactions involving our portfolio companies, the ability of our GCM group to produce fee revenue could be significantly hindered.
Further, as institutional investors increasingly consolidate their relationships with investment firms and competition becomes more acute, we may receive more requests to modify the terms of our new funds, including reductions in management fees. Any agreement to or changes in terms less favorable to us could result in a material decrease in our profitability.
Moreover, certain institutional investors have publicly criticized certain fund fee and expense structures, including management fees. We have received and expect to continue to confront requests from a variety of investors and groups representing investors to decrease fees and to modify our carried interest and incentive fee structures, which could result in a reduction in or delay in the timing of receipt of the fees and carried interest and incentive fees we earn. In addition to negotiating the overall fund rate of the management fees offered, certain fund investors have negotiated alternative management fee structures in several of our investment funds. For example, certain funds have offered a management fee rate discount for certain investors that came into the first closing of each fund. In certain cases, we have agreed to charge management fees based on invested capital or net asset value as opposed charging management fees on committed capital. Further, the SEC’s focus on certain fund fee and expense arrangements may lead to increased publicity that could cause fund investors to further resist certain fees and expense reimbursements. Any modification of our existing fee or carry arrangements or the fee or carry structures for new investment funds could adversely affect our results of operations. See “—The alternative asset management business is intensely competitive.”
Valuation methodologies for certain assets in our funds can involve subjective judgments, and the fair value of assets established pursuant to such methodologies may be incorrect, which could result in the misstatement of fund performance and accrued performance allocations.
There are often no readily ascertainable market prices for a substantial majority of illiquid investments of our investment funds. We determine the fair value of the investments of each of our investment funds at least quarterly based on the fair value guidelines set forth by generally accepted accounting principles in the United States (“U.S. GAAP”). The fair value measurement accounting guidance establishes a hierarchal disclosure framework that ranks the observability of market inputs used in measuring financial instruments at fair value. The observability of inputs is impacted by a number of factors, including the type of financial instrument, the characteristics specific to the financial instrument and the state of the marketplace, including the existence and transparency of transactions between market participants. Financial instruments with readily available quoted prices, or for which fair value can be measured from quoted prices in active markets, will generally have a higher degree of market price observability and a lesser degree of judgment applied in determining fair value.
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Investments for which market prices are not observable include, but are not limited to illiquid investments in operating companies, real estate, energy ventures, infrastructure projects, structured vehicles and other funds, and encompass all components of the capital structure, including equity, mezzanine, debt, preferred equity and derivative instruments such as options and warrants. Fair values of such investments are determined by reference to the market approach (i.e., multiplying a key performance metric of the investee company or asset, such as EBITDA, by a relevant valuation multiple observed in the range of comparable public entities or transactions, adjusted by management as appropriate for differences between the investment and the referenced comparables), the income approach (i.e., discounting projected future cash flows of the investee company or asset and/or capitalizing representative stabilized cash flows of the investee company or asset) and other methodologies such as prices provided by reputable dealers or pricing services, option pricing models and replacement costs.
The determination of fair value using these methodologies takes into consideration a range of factors including but not limited to the price at which the investment was acquired, the nature of the investment, local market conditions, the multiples of comparable securities, current and projected operating performance and financing transactions subsequent to the acquisition of the investment. These valuation methodologies involve a significant degree of management judgment. For example, as to investments that we share with another sponsor, we may apply a different valuation methodology than the other sponsor does and/or derive a different value than the other sponsor has derived on the same investment, which could cause some investors and regulators to question our valuations.
Because there is significant uncertainty in the valuation of, or in the stability of the value of, illiquid investments, the fair values of such investments as reflected in an investment fund’s net asset value do not necessarily reflect the prices that would be obtained by us on behalf of the investment fund when such investments are realized. Realizations at values significantly lower than the values at which investments had been reflected in prior fund net asset values would result in reduced earnings or losses for the applicable fund, and potentially the loss of carried interest and incentive fees. Changes in values attributed to investments from quarter to quarter may result in volatility in the net asset values and results of operations that we report from period to period. Also, a situation where asset values turn out to be materially different than values reflected in prior fund net asset values could cause investors to lose confidence in us, which could in turn result in difficulty in raising additional funds.
The historical returns attributable to our funds, including those presented in this report, should not be considered as indicative of the future results of our funds or of our future results or of any returns expected on an investment in our common stock.
We have presented in this Form 10-K information relating to the historical performance of our investment funds. The historical and potential future returns of the investment funds that we advise, however, are not directly linked to returns in our common stock. Therefore, any continued positive performance of the investment funds that we advise will not necessarily result in positive returns on an investment in our common stock. However, poor performance of the investment funds that we advise would cause a decline in our revenue from such investment funds, and could therefore have a negative effect on our performance, our ability to raise future funds and in all likelihood the returns on an investment in our common stock.
Moreover, with respect to the historical returns of our investment funds:
• our historical returns derive largely from the performance of our existing funds, and we may create new funds in the future that reflect a different asset mix and different investment strategies, as well as a varied geographic and industry exposure as compared to our present funds, and any such new funds could have lower returns than our existing or previous funds;
• the performance of our carry funds reflects our valuation of the unrealized investments held in those funds using assumptions that we believe are reasonable under the circumstances, but the actual realized return on these investments will depend on, among other factors, future operating results and the value of assets and market conditions at the time of disposition all of which may differ from the assumptions on which the valuations in our historical returns are based, which may adversely affect the ultimate value realized from those unrealized investments;
• in recent years, there has been increased competition for private equity investment opportunities resulting from the increased amount of capital invested in alternative investment funds, high liquidity in debt markets and strong equity markets, and the increased competition for investments may reduce our returns in the future;
• the rates of returns of some of our funds in certain years have been positively influenced by a number of investments that experienced rapid and substantial increases in value following the dates on which those investments were made, which may not occur with respect to future investments;
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• our investment funds’ returns in some years have benefited from investment opportunities and general market conditions that may have been significantly more favorable for generating positive performance than current market conditions or market conditions that we may experience in the future and may not repeat themselves;
• our current or future investment funds might not be able to avail themselves of comparable investment opportunities or market conditions; and the circumstances under which our funds may make future investments may differ significantly from those conditions prevailing in the past;
• newly-established funds may generate lower returns during the period that they take to deploy their capital; and
• the introduction of fund-level leverage in more recent funds has increased the rates of returns in those funds compared to what they would have been without the use of such leverage.
Our recent performance has benefited from recent high multiples and asset prices. In the current market environment, we expect that earning such returns on new investments will be much more difficult than in the past and the future internal rate of return for any current or future fund may vary considerably from the historical internal rate of return generated by any particular fund or for our funds as a whole. Future returns will also be affected by the risks described elsewhere in this report, including risks of the industries and businesses in which a particular fund invests. See—Part II. Item 7. “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Segment Analysis—Fund Performance Metrics” for additional information.
Dependence on significant leverage in investments by our funds could adversely affect our ability to achieve attractive rates of return on those investments.
Many of our carry funds’ investments rely heavily on the use of leverage, and our ability to achieve attractive rates of return on investments will depend on our ability to access sufficient sources of indebtedness at attractive rates. For example, in many private equity investments, indebtedness may constitute and historically has constituted up to 70% or more of a portfolio company’s or real estate asset’s total debt and equity capitalization, including debt that may be incurred in connection with the investment, whether incurred at or above the investment-level entity. The absence of available sources of sufficient debt financing for extended periods of time could therefore materially and adversely affect our Global Private Equity businesses. As the COVID-19 pandemic began, in an effort to ensure adequate liquidity for an unknown period of time and avoid potential future disruptions in normal financial market function, many of our portfolio companies drew down available lines of credit in excess of typical utilization. These precautionary efforts provided availability of working capital and avoided unnecessary business disruption. Certain of these portfolio companies may retain this capital for an extended period and therefore, the leverage at these portfolio companies will increase.
An increase in either the general levels of interest rates or in the risk spread demanded by sources of indebtedness would make it more expensive to finance those investments, thereby reducing returns. Increases in interest rates could also make it more difficult to locate and consummate private equity investments because other potential buyers, including operating companies acting as strategic buyers, may be able to bid for an asset at a higher price due to a lower overall cost of capital or their ability to benefit from a higher amount of cost savings following the acquisition of the asset. In addition, a portion of the indebtedness used to finance private equity investments often includes leveraged loans and high-yield debt securities issued in the public capital markets and debt instruments privately placed with institutional investors in the private capital markets. Availability of capital from the leveraged loan, high-yield and private debt markets is subject to significant volatility, and there may be times when we might not be able to access those markets at attractive rates, or at all, when completing an investment. Certain investments may also be financed through borrowings on fund-level debt facilities, which may or may not be available for a refinancing at the end of their respective terms. Additionally, to the extent there is a reduction in the availability of financing for extended periods of time, the purchasing power of a prospective buyer may be more limited, adversely impacting the fair value of our funds’ investments and thereby reducing the acquisition price. Finally, recent developments in U.S. and international tax policy have significantly limited the availability of income tax deductions for interest payments on leverage used to finance some of our funds’ investments. Interest deductibility rules continue to evolve, and further restrictions and changes are anticipated in the U.S. and other jurisdictions. See “ —Risks Related to Taxation—Changes in relevant tax laws, regulations or treaties or an adverse interpretation of these items by tax authorities could negatively impact our effective tax rate and tax liability .” Such restrictions could reduce the after-tax rates of return on the affected investments, which may have an adverse impact on our business and financial results.
Investments in highly leveraged entities are also inherently more sensitive to declines in revenue, increases in expenses and interest rates and adverse economic, market and industry developments. Furthermore, the incurrence of a significant amount of indebtedness by an entity could, among other things:
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• subject the entity to a number of restrictive covenants, terms and conditions, any violation of which could be viewed by creditors as an event of default and could materially impact our ability to realize value from the investment;
• allow even moderate reductions in operating cash flow to render the entity unable to service its indebtedness, leading to a bankruptcy or other reorganization of the entity and a loss of part or all of the equity investment in it;
• give rise to an obligation to make mandatory prepayments of debt using excess cash flow, which might limit the entity’s ability to respond to changing industry conditions to the extent additional cash is needed for the response, to make unplanned but necessary capital expenditures or to take advantage of growth opportunities;
• limit the entity’s ability to adjust to changing market conditions, thereby placing it at a competitive disadvantage compared to its competitors that have relatively less debt;
• limit the entity’s ability to engage in strategic acquisitions that might be necessary to generate attractive returns or further growth; and
• limit the entity’s ability to obtain additional financing or increase the cost of obtaining such financing, including for capital expenditures, working capital or other general corporate purposes.
As a result, the risk of loss associated with a leveraged entity is generally greater than for companies with comparatively less debt. Similarly, the leveraged nature of the investments of our real assets funds increases the risk that a decline in the fair value of the underlying real estate or tangible assets will result in their abandonment or foreclosure.
When our private equity funds’ portfolio investments reach the point when debt incurred to finance those investments matures in significant amounts and must be either repaid or refinanced, those investments may suffer materially if they have not generated sufficient cash flow to repay maturing debt and there is insufficient capacity and availability in the financing markets to permit them to refinance maturing debt on satisfactory terms, or at all. If a limited availability of financing for such purposes were to persist for an extended period of time, when significant amounts of the debt incurred to finance our Global Private Equity funds’ portfolio investments came due, these funds could be materially and adversely affected.
Many of our Global Credit funds may choose to use leverage as part of their respective investment programs and regularly borrow a substantial amount of their capital. The use of leverage poses a significant degree of risk and enhances the possibility of a significant loss in the value of the investment portfolio. A fund may borrow money from time to time to purchase or carry securities or may enter into derivative transactions (such as total return swaps) with counterparties that have embedded leverage. The interest expense and other costs incurred in connection with such borrowing may not be recovered by appreciation in the securities purchased or carried and will be lost, and the timing and magnitude of such losses may be accelerated or exacerbated, in the event of a decline in the market value of such securities. Gains realized with borrowed funds may cause the fund’s net asset value to increase at a faster rate than would be the case without borrowings. However, if investment results fail to cover the cost of borrowings, the fund’s net asset value could also decrease faster than if there had been no borrowings. Increases in interest rates could also decrease the value of fixed-rate debt investment that our investment funds make. In addition, to the extent that any changes in tax law make debt financing less attractive to certain categories of borrowers, this could adversely affect the investment opportunities for our credit-focused funds.
Any of the foregoing circumstances could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition and cash flow.
The alternative asset management business is intensely competitive.
The alternative asset management business is intensely competitive, with competition based on a variety of factors, including investment performance, business relationships, quality of service provided to investors, investor liquidity and willingness to invest, fund terms (including fees), brand recognition, types of products offered, consideration of ESG issues and business reputation. Our investment business, as well as our investment funds, competes with a number of private equity funds, specialized investment funds, hedge funds, corporate buyers, traditional asset managers, real estate development companies, commercial banks, investment banks and other financial institutions (as well as sovereign wealth funds and other institutional investors).
Additionally, developments in financial technology (or fintech), such as a distributed ledger technology (or blockchain), have the potential to disrupt the financial industry and change the way financial institutions, as well as asset managers, do business. A number of factors serve to increase our competitive risks:
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• a number of our competitors in some of our businesses have greater financial, technical, marketing and other resources and more personnel than we do;
• some of our funds may not perform as well as competitors’ funds or other available investment products;
• fund investors may reduce their investments in our funds or decrease their allocations in new funds based on a variety of factors, such as the occurrence of an economic downturn, their available capital, regulatory requirements, a desire to consolidate their relationships with investment firms or other considerations;
• several of our competitors have significant amounts of capital, and many of them have similar investment objectives to ours, which may create additional competition for investment opportunities and may reduce the size and duration of pricing inefficiencies that otherwise could be exploited;
• some of these competitors (including strategic competitors) may also have a lower cost of capital and access to funding sources that are not available to us, which may create competitive disadvantages for our funds with respect to investment opportunities;
• some of our competitors may have higher risk tolerances, different risk assessments or lower return thresholds than us, which could allow them to consider a wider variety of investments and to bid more aggressively or more quickly than us for investments that we want to make;
• some of our competitors may be subject to less regulation and accordingly may have more flexibility to undertake and execute certain businesses or investments than we do and/or bear less compliance expense than us;
• some of our competitors may have more flexibility than us in raising certain types of investment funds under the investment management contracts they have negotiated with their investors;
• some of our competitors may have better expertise or be regarded by investors as having better expertise in a specific asset class or geographic region than we do;
• our competitors that are corporate buyers may be able to achieve synergistic cost savings in respect of an investment, which may provide them with a competitive advantage in bidding for an investment;
• our competitors have instituted or may institute low cost high speed financial applications and services based on artificial intelligence and new competitors may enter the asset management space using new investment platforms based on artificial intelligence;
• the proliferation of special purpose acquisition companies (“SPACs”) entering the market may compete with our funds for investment opportunities and drive up asset prices;
• there are relatively few barriers to entry impeding the formation of new investment firms, and the successful efforts of new entrants into our various businesses, including former “star” portfolio managers at large diversified financial institutions as well as such institutions themselves, is expected to continue to result in increased competition;
• some investors may prefer to pursue investments directly instead of investing through one of our funds;
• some investors may prefer to invest with an asset manager that is not publicly traded or is smaller with only one or two investment products that it manages; and
• other industry participants may, from time to time, seek to recruit our investment professionals and other employees away from us.
We may lose investment opportunities in the future if we do not match investment prices, structures, products or terms offered by our competitors. Alternatively, we may experience decreased rates of return and increased risks of loss if we match investment prices, structures and terms offered by our competitors. Moreover, if we are forced to compete with other asset managers on the basis of price, we may not be able to maintain our current fund fee and carried interest terms. We have historically competed primarily on the performance of our funds, and not on the level of our fees or carried interest relative to those of our competitors. However, there is a risk that fees and carried interest in the asset management industry will decline, without regard to the historical performance of a manager. Fee or carried interest income reductions on existing or future funds, without corresponding decreases in our cost structure, would adversely affect our revenues and profitability. See “—Our
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investors may negotiate to pay us lower management fees and the economic terms of our future funds may be less favorable to us than those of our existing funds, which could adversely affect our revenues.”
The attractiveness of our investment funds relative to investments in other investment products could decrease depending on economic conditions. In addition, to the extent that any changes in tax law make debt financing less attractive to certain categories of borrowers, this could adversely affect the investment opportunities for our credit-focused funds. This competitive pressure could adversely affect our ability to make successful investments and limit our ability to raise future investment funds, either of which would adversely impact our business, revenue, results of operations and cash flow. See “—Our investors may negotiate to pay us lower management fees and the economic terms of our future funds may be less favorable to us than those of our existing funds, which could adversely affect our revenues.”
The due diligence process that we undertake in connection with investments by our investment funds may not reveal all facts that may be relevant in connection with an investment.
Before making private equity and other investments, we conduct due diligence that we deem reasonable and appropriate based on the known facts and circumstances applicable to each investment. The objective of the due diligence process is to identify attractive investment opportunities based on the known facts and circumstances and initial risk assessment surrounding an investment and, depending on our ownership or control of private equity investments, prepare a framework that may be used from the date of an acquisition to drive operational achievement and value creation. When conducting due diligence, we may be required to evaluate important and complex business, financial, regulatory, tax, accounting, environmental (including climate change), social, governance and legal issues. Outside consultants, legal advisors, accountants and investment banks may be involved in the due diligence process in varying degrees depending on the type of investment. Nevertheless, when conducting due diligence and making an assessment regarding an investment, we rely on the resources available to us, including information provided by the target of the investment and, in some circumstances, third-party investigations and analysis. The due diligence process may at times be subjective with respect to newly-organized companies for which only limited information is available. Due to intense competition in the marketplace we may have less time than in the past to complete our due diligence or our competitors may review less due diligence thereby increasing the speed with which they complete their review. We cannot be certain that the due diligence investigation that we carry out with respect to any investment opportunity will reveal or highlight all relevant facts that may be necessary or helpful in evaluating such investment opportunity, which may also be further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which, in some cases, has changed the way we conduct due diligence due to travel and other health restrictions that may affect our ability to have in person meetings with certain potential target company personnel, customers, vendors and other service providers.
The due diligence process in connection with carve-out transactions may underestimate the complexity and/or level of dependence a business has on its parent company and affiliated entities. Because a carve-out business often does not have financial statements that accurately reflect its true financial performance as a stand-alone business, due diligence assessments of such investments can be particularly difficult. Instances of fraud, accounting irregularities and other improper, illegal or deceptive practices can be difficult to detect, and fraud and other deceptive practices can be widespread in certain jurisdictions. Several of our funds invest in emerging market countries that may not have established laws and regulations that are as stringent as in more developed nations, or where existing laws and regulations may not be consistently enforced. For example, our funds invest throughout jurisdictions that have material perceptions of corruption according to international rating standards (such as “Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index”) such as China, India, Indonesia, Latin America, MENA and Sub-Saharan Africa. Similarly, our funds invest in companies in the U.S. and other jurisdictions and regions with low perceived corruption but whose business may be conducted in other high-risk jurisdictions.
Due diligence on investment opportunities in these jurisdictions is frequently more complicated because consistent and uniform commercial practices in such locations may not be developed or our access to information may be very limited. Fraud, accounting irregularities and deceptive practices can be especially difficult to detect in such locations. In addition, investment opportunities may arise in companies that have historic and/or unresolved regulatory, tax, fraud or accounting related investigations, audits or inquiries and/or have been subjected to public accusations of improper behavior. However, even heightened and specific due diligence and investigations with respect to such matters may not reveal or highlight all relevant facts that may be necessary or helpful in evaluating such investment opportunity and/or will be able to accurately identify, assess and quantify settlements, enforcement actions and judgments that may arise and which could have a material adverse effect on the portfolio company’s business, financial condition and operations, as well as potential significant harm to the portfolio company’s reputation and prospects. We cannot be certain that our due diligence investigations will result in investments being successful or that the actual financial performance of an investment will not fall short of the financial projections we used when evaluating that investment. Failure to identify risks associated with our investments could have a material adverse effect on our business.
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Our funds invest in relatively high-risk, illiquid assets, and we may fail to realize any profits from these activities for a considerable period of time or lose some or all of our principal investments.
Many of our investment funds invest in securities that are not publicly traded. In many cases, our investment funds may be prohibited by contract or by applicable securities laws from selling such securities for a period of time. Our investment funds will not be able to sell these securities publicly unless their sale is registered under applicable securities laws, or unless an exemption from such registration is available. The ability of many of our investment funds, particularly our private equity funds, to dispose of investments is heavily dependent on the public equity markets. For example, the ability to realize any value from an investment may depend upon the ability to complete an initial public offering of the portfolio company in which such investment is held. Even if the securities are publicly traded, large holdings of securities can often be disposed of only over a substantial length of time, exposing the investment returns to risks of downward movement in market prices during the intended disposition period. Moreover, because the investment strategy of many of our funds, particularly our private equity funds, often entails our having representation on our funds’ public portfolio company boards, our funds may be able to effect such sales only during limited trading windows. Additionally, certain provisions of the U.S. federal securities laws (e.g., Exchange Act Section 16) may constrain our investment funds’ ability to effect purchases or sales of publicly traded securities. Accordingly, under certain conditions, our investment funds may be forced to either sell securities at lower prices than they had expected to realize or defer, potentially for a considerable period of time, sales that they had planned to make.
We have made and expect to continue to make significant principal investments in our current and future investment funds. Contributing capital to these investment funds is subject to significant risks, and we may lose some or all of the principal amount of our investments.
The investments of our private equity funds are subject to a number of inherent risks.
Our results are highly dependent on our continued ability to generate attractive returns from our investments. Investments made by our private equity funds involve a number of significant risks inherent to private equity investing, including the following:
• we advise funds that invest in businesses that operate in a variety of industries that are subject to extensive domestic and foreign regulation, such as the telecommunications industry, the aerospace, defense and government services industry and the healthcare industry (including companies that supply equipment and services to governmental agencies), that may involve greater risk due to rapidly changing market and governmental conditions in those sectors;
• significant failures of our portfolio companies to comply with laws and regulations applicable to them may expose us to liabilities, fines or penalties, could affect the ability of our funds to invest in other companies in certain industries in the future and could harm our reputation;
• companies in which private equity investments are made may have limited financial resources and may be unable to meet their obligations, which may be accompanied by a deterioration in the value of their equity securities or any collateral or guarantees provided with respect to their debt;
• companies in which private equity investments are made are more likely to depend on the management talents and efforts of a small group of persons and, as a result, the death, disability, resignation or termination of one or more of those persons could have a material adverse impact on their business and prospects and the investment made;
• companies in which private equity investments are made may be businesses or divisions acquired from larger operating entities which may require a rebuilding or replacement of financial reporting, information technology, back office and other operations;
• companies in which private equity investments are made may from time to time be parties to litigation, may be engaged in rapidly changing businesses with products subject to a substantial risk of obsolescence and may require substantial additional capital to support their operations, finance expansion or maintain their competitive position;
• companies in which private equity investments are made generally have less predictable operating results;
• instances of fraud, corruption and other deceptive practices committed by senior management of portfolio companies in which our funds invest may undermine our due diligence efforts with respect to such companies and, upon the discovery of such fraud, negatively affect the valuation of a fund’s investments as well as contribute to overall market volatility that can negatively impact a fund’s investment program;
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• our funds may make investments that they do not advantageously dispose of prior to the date the applicable fund is dissolved, either by expiration of such fund’s term or otherwise, resulting in a lower than expected return on the investments and, potentially, on the fund itself;
• our funds generally establish the capital structure of portfolio companies on the basis of the financial projections based primarily on management judgments and assumptions, and general economic conditions and other factors may cause actual performance to fall short of these financial projections, which could cause a substantial decrease in the value of our equity holdings in the portfolio company and cause our funds’ performance to fall short of our expectations;
• under ERISA, a “trade or business” within a “controlled group” can be liable for the ERISA Title IV pension obligations (including withdrawal liability for union multiemployer plans) of any other member of the controlled group. This “controlled group” liability represents one of the few situations in which one entity’s liability can be imposed upon another simply because the entities are united by common ownership, but in order for such joint and several liability to be imposed, two tests must be satisfied: (1) the entity on which such liability is to be imposed must be a “trade or business” and (2) a “controlled group” relationship must exist among such entity and the pension plan sponsor or the contributing employer. While a number of cases have held that managing investments is not a “trade or business” for tax purposes, at least one federal Circuit Court case has concluded that an investment fund could be a “trade or business” for ERISA purposes (and, consequently, could be liable for underfunded pension liabilities of an insolvent portfolio company) based upon a number of factors present in that case, including the fund’s level of involvement in the management of its portfolio companies and the nature of its management fee arrangements. Litigation related to the Circuit Court’s decision suggests that additional factors may be relevant for purposes of determining whether an investment fund could face “controlled group” liability under ERISA, including the structure of the investment, and the nature of the fund’s relationship with other affiliated investors and co-investors in the portfolio company. Moreover, regardless of whether or not an investment fund is determined to be a trade or business for purposes of ERISA, a court might hold that one of the fund’s portfolio companies could become jointly and severally liable for another portfolio company’s unfunded pension liabilities pursuant to the ERISA “controlled group” rules, depending upon the relevant investment structures and ownership interests as noted above; and
• executive officers, directors and employees of an equity sponsor may be named as defendants in litigation involving a company in which a private equity investment is made or is being made.
Our real estate funds are subject to the risks inherent in the ownership and operation of real estate and the construction and development of real estate.
Investments in our real estate funds will be subject to the risks inherent in the ownership and operation of real estate and real estate-related businesses and assets. These risks include the following:
• those associated with the burdens of ownership of real property;
• general and local economic conditions;
• changes in supply of and demand for competing properties in an area (as a result, for instance, of overbuilding);
• fluctuations in the average occupancy and room rates for hotel and student housing properties;
• the financial resources of tenants;
• changes in building, environmental, zoning and other laws;
• failure to obtain necessary approvals and/or permits;
• energy and supply shortages;
• casualty or condemnation losses;
• various uninsured or uninsurable risks;
• natural disasters, including increased physical risks from climate change such as event-driven exposures resulting from the increased severity of extreme weather events and consequences of longer-term shifts in climate patterns, and the effects of climate change on supply and demand;
• changes in government regulations (such as rent control);
• changes in the way real estate is occupied as a result of pandemics or other unforeseen events;
• changes in real property tax rates and operating expenses;
• changes in interest rates;
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• the reduced availability of mortgage funds or other forms of financings, including construction financing, which may render the sale or refinancing of properties difficult or impracticable;
• inability to meet debt obligations
• negative developments in the economy that depress travel and leasing activity;
• environmental liabilities;
• contingent liabilities on disposition of assets;
• increase in insurance premiums and changes to the insurance market;
• unexpected cost overruns and delays in connection with development projects;
• terrorist attacks, war and other factors that are beyond our control; and
• dependence on local operating partners.
Our real estate funds’ portfolio investments are subject to various risks that cause fluctuations in occupancy, rental rates, operating income and expenses or that render the sale or financing of the funds’ portfolio investment properties difficult or unattractive, which risks have been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, following the termination or expiration of a tenant’s lease, there could be a period of time before a funds’ portfolio investment will begin receiving rental payments under a replacement lease. During that period, the portfolio investments (and indirectly, the funds) will continue to bear fixed expenses such as interest, real estate taxes, maintenance and other operating expenses. In addition, declining economic conditions could impair the portfolio investments’ ability to attract replacement tenants and achieve rental rates equal to or greater than the rents paid under previous leases. Increased competition for tenants would require the portfolio investments to make capital improvements to properties that we would not otherwise have planned. Any unbudgeted capital improvements that a fund undertakes may divert cash that would otherwise be available for distribution to investors. To the extent that the portfolio investments are unable to renew leases or re-let spaces as leases expire, decreased cash flow from tenants will result, which would adversely impact the relevant fund’s returns. Our real estate funds may also make investments in residential real estate projects and/or otherwise participate in financing opportunities relating to residential real estate assets or portfolios thereof from time to time, which may be more highly susceptible to adverse changes in prevailing economic and/or market conditions and present additional risks relative to the ownership and operation of commercial real estate assets.
With regards to potential environmental liabilities, ownership of real assets in our investment funds or vehicles may increase our risk of liability under laws that impose, regardless of fault, joint and several liability for the cost of remediating contamination and compensation for damages. In addition, changes in environmental laws or regulations or the environmental condition of an investment may create liabilities that did not exist at the time of acquisition. For example, the current Administration announced several initiatives and have proposed new regulations focused on the climate crisis which could impact our real estate assets in various ways that were not considered at the time of investment. Even in cases where we are indemnified by a seller against liabilities arising out of violations of environmental laws and regulations, there can be no assurance as to the financial viability of the seller to satisfy such indemnities or our ability to achieve enforcement of such indemnities.
In addition to real property assets, our real estate funds may also invest in real estate related operating companies such as logistics hubs and data centers. These investments are similar to the portfolio investments made by our buyout and growth funds and are subject to similar risks and uncertainties as apply to those operating companies. See “—The investments of our private equity funds are subject to a number of inherent risks.”
Real estate markets may experience sharp increases in capitalization rates and declines in value as a result of overall economic decline and the limited availability of financing and the value of certain investments in our real estate funds may decline significantly. In addition, if our real estate funds acquire direct or indirect interests in undeveloped land or underdeveloped real property, which may often be non-income producing, they will be subject to the risks normally associated with such assets and development activities, including risks relating to the availability and timely receipt of zoning and other regulatory or environmental approvals, the cost and timely completion of construction (including risks beyond the control of our fund, such as weather or labor conditions or material shortages) and the availability of both construction and permanent financing on favorable terms. Additionally, our real estate funds’ properties are often managed by a third party, which makes us dependent upon such third parties and subjects us to risks associated with the actions of such third parties. Any of these factors may cause the value of the investments in our real estate funds to decline, which may have a material impact on our results of operations.
Additionally, lenders in commercial real estate financing have been requiring a non-recourse carveout guarantee, which typically provides that the lender can recover losses from guarantors for certain bad acts, such as fraud or intentional misrepresentation, intentional waste, willful misconduct, criminal acts, misappropriation of funds, voluntary incurrence of prohibited debt and environmental losses sustained by lender. For our acquisitions, non-recourse carveout guarantees may be extended by our funds. We expect that commercial real estate financing arrangements generally will increasingly continue to
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require non-recourse carveout guarantees and, in the event that such a guarantee is called, a fund’s or our assets could be negatively impacted and we or our funds may be subject to liability.
The acquisition, ownership and disposition of real properties carry certain specific litigation risks. Litigation may be commenced with respect to a property acquired in relation to activities that took place prior to the acquisition of such property. In addition, at the time of disposition, other potential buyers may bring claims related to the asset or for due diligence expenses or other damages. After the sale of a real estate asset, buyers may later sue our funds or us for losses associated with latent defects or other problems not uncovered in due diligence. Litigation can arise for events or circumstance that occur or are alleged to occur during the ownership period.
We or our funds may also be subject to certain risks associated with investments in particular real estate-related assets. Real estate investment trusts (“REITs”) may be affected by changes in the value of their underlying properties and defaults by borrowers or tenants, and changes in tax laws or by a failure to qualify for tax-free pass through income could impair a REIT’s ability to generate cash flows to make distributions. Qualification as a REIT also depends on a REITs ability to meet various requirements imposed by the U.S. Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended (the “Code”), which relate to organizational structure, annual distributions, diversity of stock ownership, and certain restrictions with regard to the nature of their assets and the sources of their income. If a REIT fails to qualify as a REIT in any taxable year, it will be subject to U.S. federal income tax at regular corporate rates, and applicable state and local taxes, which would reduce the amount of cash available for distribution to its stockholders.
Investments in real estate debt investments may be unsecured and/or subordinated to a substantial amount of indebtedness and may not be protected by financial covenants. Non-performing real estate loans may require a substantial amount of workout negotiations and/or modification, which may entail, among other things, a substantial reduction in the interest rate and a substantial write-down of the principal of such loan. Investments in commercial mortgage loans are subject to risks of delinquency, foreclosure and loss of principal. In the event of any default under a mortgage loan held directly by us or one of our funds, we or our fund will bear a risk of loss of principal to the extent of any deficiency between the value of the collateral and the principal and accrued interest of the loan. Investments in distressed assets or businesses may have little or no near-term cash flow, involve a high degree of risk and, if subject to bankruptcy or insolvency, could be subordinated or disallowed.
We often pursue investment opportunities that involve business, regulatory, legal or other complexities.
As an element of our investment style, we may pursue unusually complex investment opportunities. This can often take the form of substantial business, regulatory, tax, or legal complexity that would deter other asset managers. Our tolerance for complexity presents risks, as such transactions can be more difficult, expensive and time-consuming to finance and execute; it can be more difficult to manage or realize value from the assets acquired in such transactions; and such transactions sometimes entail a higher level of regulatory scrutiny or a greater risk of contingent liabilities. The complexity of these transactions could also make it more difficult to find a suitable buyer. Any of these risks could harm the performance of our funds or strategic investments.
Our investment funds make investments in companies that we do not control.
Investments by many of our investment funds will include debt instruments and equity securities of companies that we do not control. Such instruments and securities may be acquired by our investment funds through trading activities or through purchases of securities from the issuer. In addition, our funds may acquire minority equity interests in large transactions, which may be structured as “consortium transactions” due to the size of the investment and the amount of capital required to be invested. A consortium transaction involves an equity investment in which two or more private equity or other firms serve together or collectively as equity sponsors. We participated in a number of consortium transactions in prior years due to the increased size of many of the transactions in which we were involved. Consortium transactions generally entail a reduced level of control by our firm over the investment because governance rights must be shared with the other consortium sponsors. Accordingly, we may not be able to control decisions relating to a consortium investment, including decisions relating to the management and operation of the company and the timing and nature of any exit. Our funds may also dispose of a portion of their majority equity investments in portfolio companies over time in a manner that results in the funds retaining a minority investment. Those investments may be subject to the risk that the company in which the investment is made may make business, tax, legal, financial or management decisions with which we do not agree or that the majority stakeholders or the management of the company may take risks or otherwise act in a manner that does not serve our interests. If any of the foregoing were to occur, the value of investments by our funds could decrease and our financial condition, results of operations and cash flow could suffer as a result.
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Our investment funds may invest in assets denominated in currencies which differ from the currency in which the fund is denominated.
When our investment funds invest in assets denominated in currencies that differ from the functional currency of the relevant fund, fluctuations in currency rates could impact the performance of the investment funds. For example, Carlyle sponsors U.S. dollar-denominated funds that invest in assets denominated in foreign currencies such as our buyout and growth funds in Asia and South America. In the event that the U.S. dollar appreciates, the market value of the investments in these funds will decline even if the underlying investments perform well in local currency. In addition, our buyout and growth funds in Europe are Euro-denominated and may have investments denominated in U.S. Dollar, British Pound, or other currencies. In the event the Euro appreciates, the market value of investments in these funds would decline even if the underlying investments perform well in local currency.
We may employ hedging techniques to manage these risks, but we can offer no assurance that such strategies will be effective or tax-efficient . If we engage in hedging transactions, we may be exposed to additional risks associated with such transactions. See “—Risk management activities may adversely affect the return on our and our funds’ investments,” and “—Risks Related to Our Company—Financial regulations and changes thereto in the United States could adversely affect our business and the possibility of increased regulatory focus could result in additional burdens and expenses on our business.”
Our funds make investments in companies that are based outside of the United States, which may expose us to additional risks not typically associated with investing in companies that are based in the United States.
Many of our investment funds generally invest a significant portion of their assets in the equity, debt, loans or other securities of issuers that are headquartered outside of the United States, such as China, India, Indonesia and Latin America. A substantial amount of these foreign investments consist of investments made by our carry funds. For example, as of December 31, 2021, approximately 38% of the cumulative capital invested by our Global Private Equity and Global Credit carry funds was attributable to foreign investments. Investments in non-U.S. securities involve risks not typically associated with investing in U.S. securities, including:
• certain economic and political risks, including potential exchange control regulations and restrictions on our non-U.S. investments and repatriation of profits on investments or of capital invested, the risks of political, economic or social instability, the possibility of expropriation or confiscatory taxation and adverse economic and political developments;
• the imposition of non-U.S. taxes on gains from the sale of investments or other distributions by our funds;
• the absence of uniform accounting, auditing and financial reporting standards, practices and disclosure requirements and less government supervision and regulation;
• changes in laws or clarifications to existing laws that could impact our tax treaty positions, which could adversely impact the returns on our investments;
• limitations on the deductibility of interest for income tax purposes in certain jurisdictions;
• differences in the legal and regulatory environment or enhanced legal and regulatory compliance;
• limitations on borrowings to be used to fund acquisitions or dividends;
• political hostility to investments by foreign or private equity investors, including increased risk of government expropriation;
• less liquid markets;
• reliance on a more limited number of commodity inputs, service providers and/or distribution mechanisms;
• adverse fluctuations in currency exchange rates and costs associated with conversion of investment principal and income from one currency into another;
• higher rates of inflation;
• higher transaction costs;
• less government supervision of exchanges, brokers and issuers;
• less developed bankruptcy, limited liability company, corporate, partnership and other laws (which may have the effect of disregarding or otherwise circumventing the limited liability structures potentially causing the actions or liabilities of one fund or a portfolio company to adversely impact us or an unrelated fund or portfolio company);
• difficulty in enforcing contractual obligations;
• less stringent requirements relating to fiduciary duties;
• fewer investor protections and less publicly available information in respect of companies in non-U.S. markets; and
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• greater price volatility.
For example, the imposition of a new national security law has increased overall uncertainty about risks associated with international trade with Hong Kong, the potential for increased taxation on Hong Kong-related transactions, and new regulatory restrictions and data protection concerns for businesses operated in Hong Kong (including our Hong Kong operations). In April 2020, the Government of India issued Press Note 3, which requires prior government approval of all foreign direct investment by non-resident entities located in, or having beneficial owners in, countries that share a land border with India. While further clarity is expected from the Government, the application of these rules may inhibit our funds’ ability to consummate investments in India and may require partial or full exclusion of any fund investor from countries bordering India from such investments. Uncertainty resulting from the application of these rules may also lead to higher amounts of, or longer durations of, borrowings by the investment funds pending the receipt of approvals, and we or our funds being subject to fines if different regulators apply and enforce the rules differently.
We operate in numerous national and subnational jurisdictions throughout the world and are subject to complex taxation requirements that could result in the imposition of taxes in excess of any amounts that are reserved
as a cash or financial statement matter for such purposes. In addition, the portfolio companies of our investment funds are typically subject to taxation in the jurisdictions in which they operate. It is possible that a taxing authority could take a contrary view of our tax position or there could be changes in law subsequent to the date of an investment in a particular portfolio company that will adversely affect returns from that investment, or adversely affect any prospective investments in a particular jurisdiction, for example as a result of new legislation in any such local jurisdiction affecting the deductibility of interest or other expenses related to acquisition financing.
In the event a portfolio company outside the United States experiences financial difficulties, we may consider local laws, corporate organizational structure, potential impacts on other portfolio companies in the region and other factors in developing our business response. Among other actions, we may seek to enhance the management team or fund additional capital from our investment funds, our senior Carlyle professionals and/or us. To the extent we and/or certain of our senior Carlyle professionals fund additional capital into a company that is experiencing difficulties, we may be required to consolidate the entity into our financial statements under applicable U.S. GAAP. See “—Risks Related to Our Common Stock—The consolidation of investment funds, holding companies or operating businesses of our portfolio companies could make it more difficult to understand the operating performance of the Company and could create operational risks for the Company.”
Our funds’ investments that are denominated in a foreign currency will be subject to the risk that the value of a particular currency will change in relation to one or more other currencies or that there will be changes in the cost of currency conversion and/or exchange control regulations. Among the factors that may affect currency values are trade balances, levels of short-term interest rates, differences in relative values of similar assets in different currencies, long-term opportunities for investment and capital appreciation and political developments. Additionally, the increase in the value of the dollar makes it more difficult for companies outside of the United States that depend on non-dollar revenues to repay or refinance their dollar liabilities and a stronger dollar also reduces the domestic value of the foreign sales and earnings of U.S.-based businesses.
Regulatory action to implement controls on foreign exchange and outbound remittances of currency could also impact the dollar value of investments proceeds, interest and dividends received by our investment funds, gains and losses realized on the sale of investments and the timing and amount of distributions, if any, made to us. For example certain Asian countries, including China have implemented stricter controls on foreign exchange and outbound remittances, and several governmental entities such as, The Peoples Bank of China (PBOC), the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) have instituted additional reporting, review and verification steps around control outbound payments on capital account items. Furthermore, in certain cases, our fund management fees are denominated in foreign currencies. With respect to those funds, we are subject to the risk that the value of a particular currency will change in relation to one or more other currencies in which the fund has incurred expenses or has made investments.
We may need to pay “giveback” obligations if and when they are triggered under the governing agreements with our investors.
If, at the end of any of the life of our Global Private Equity and Global Credit carry funds (or earlier with respect to certain of our funds), the carry fund has not achieved investment returns that (in most cases) exceed the preferred return threshold or (in almost all cases) the general partner receives net profits over the life of the fund in excess of its allocable share under the applicable partnership agreement, we will be obligated to repay an amount equal to the extent to which carried interest that was previously distributed to us exceeds the amounts to which we are ultimately entitled. This repayment obligation is known as a “giveback” obligation. As of December 31, 2021, we had accrued a giveback obligation of $30.2 million, representing the giveback obligation that would need to be paid by the firm if the carry funds were liquidated at their current fair values at that date, and of which approximately $16.1 million is attributable to the Company. The remaining
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obligations are related to amounts previously distributed to our senior Carlyle professionals, the majority of which relates to the accrued giveback obligation from the Legacy Energy Funds.
When payment of a giveback obligation is anticipated (or “realized”), the portion of this liability that is expected to be borne by the common stockholders (i.e., the amount not expected to be funded by Carlyle professionals) has the effect of reducing our Distributable Earnings. Any remaining giveback obligation required to be funded on behalf of our funds would generally be due upon the liquidation of the remaining assets from the funds.
If, as of December 31, 2021, all of the investments held by our carry funds were deemed worthless, the amount of realized and distributed carried interest subject to potential giveback would have been $1.5 billion, on an after-tax basis where applicable. As of December 31, 2021, we have realized $227.9 million in aggregate giveback obligations since inception, which were funded primarily through collection of employee receivables related to giveback obligations and from Carlyle professionals and other non-controlling interests for their portion of the obligation. This amount is net of $44.7 million related to our second Asia buyout fund accruing carry again after payment of a full after-tax clawback in 2016. Of the $227.9 million in aggregate giveback obligations realized from inception to December 31, 2021, $62.0 million was attributable to Carlyle. See Part II. Item 7. “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Key Financial Measures—Investment Income.”
Although a giveback obligation is specific to each person who received a distribution, and not a joint obligation, the governing agreements of our funds generally provide that to the extent a recipient does not fund his or her respective share, then we may have to fund such additional amounts beyond the amount of carried interest we retained, although we generally will retain the right to pursue any remedies that we have under such governing agreements against those carried interest recipients who fail to fund their obligations. As of December 31, 2021, approximately $14.1 million of our $30.2 million accrued giveback obligation is attributable to various current and former senior Carlyle professionals. We have historically withheld a portion of the cash from carried interest distributions to individual senior Carlyle professionals and other employees as security for their potential giveback obligations. We may need to use or reserve cash to repay such giveback obligations instead of using the cash for other purposes. See Part I. Item 1. “Business—Structure and Operation of Our Investment Funds—Incentive Arrangements / Fee Structure” and Part II. Item 7. “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Contractual Obligations—Contingent Obligations (Giveback)” and Notes 2 and 8 to the consolidated financial statements included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
Our investment funds often make preferred and common equity investments that rank junior to preferred equity and debt in a company’s capital structure.
In most cases, the companies in which our investment funds invest have, or are permitted to have, outstanding indebtedness or equity securities that rank senior to our fund’s investment. By their terms, such instruments may provide that their holders are entitled to receive payments of dividends, interest or principal on or before the dates on which payments are to be made in respect of our investment. Also, in the event of insolvency, liquidation, dissolution, reorganization or bankruptcy of a company in which an investment is made, holders of securities ranking senior to our investment would typically be entitled to receive payment in full before distributions could be made in respect of our investment. After repaying senior security holders, the company may not have any remaining assets to use for repaying amounts owed in respect of our investment. To the extent that any assets remain, holders of claims that rank equally with our investment would be entitled to share on an equal and ratable basis in distributions that are made out of those assets. Also, during periods of financial distress or following an insolvency, the ability of our funds to influence a company’s affairs and to take actions to protect their investments may be substantially less than that of the senior creditors.
Third-party investors in substantially all of our carry funds have the right to remove the general partner of the fund for cause, to accelerate the liquidation date of the investment fund without cause by a simple majority vote and to terminate the investment period under certain circumstances and investors in certain of the investment funds we advise may redeem their investments. These events would lead to a decrease in our revenues, which could be substantial.
The governing agreements of almost all of our carry funds provide that, subject to certain conditions, third-party investors in those funds have the right to remove the general partner of the fund for cause or to accelerate the liquidation date of the investment fund without cause by a simple majority vote. In addition, our investment vehicles that are structured as “funds of one”, or separately managed accounts, have a single investor or a few affiliated investors that typically have the right to terminate the investment period or cause a dissolution of the vehicle under certain circumstances. These actions would result in a reduction in management fees we would earn from such investment funds, vehicles, or accounts, and could result in a significant reduction in the expected amounts of total carried interest and incentive fees from those investment funds, vehicles, or accounts. Carried interest and incentive fees could be significantly reduced as a result of our inability to maximize the value of investments by an investment fund during the liquidation process or in the event of the triggering of a “giveback” obligation. Finally, the applicable investment funds, vehicles, or accounts would cease to exist after completion of liquidation and winding-up.
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In addition, the governing agreements of certain of our investment funds provide that in the event certain “key persons” in our investment funds do not meet specified time commitments with regard to managing the fund (for example, certain of the investment professionals serving on the investment committee or advising the fund), then investors in certain funds have the right to vote to terminate the investment period by a simple majority vote in accordance with specified procedures, accelerate the withdrawal of their capital on an investor-by-investor basis, or the fund’s investment period will automatically terminate and the vote of a simple majority of investors is required to restart it. While we believe that our investment professionals have appropriate incentives to remain in their respective positions, based on equity ownership, profit participation and other contractual provisions, we are not able to guarantee the ongoing participation of the management team members in respect of our funds. In addition to having a significant negative impact on our revenue, earnings and cash flow, the occurrence of a key person event with respect to any of our investment funds would likely result in significant reputational damage to us and could negatively impact our future fundraising efforts.
The AlpInvest funds generally provide for suspension of the investment period if there is a key person event, the right of a supermajority of investors to remove the general partner with cause and, in some cases, without cause, but generally have not provided for liquidation without cause. Where AlpInvest funds include “key person” provisions, they are focused on specific existing AlpInvest personnel as applicable.
In addition, because our investment funds generally have an adviser that is registered under the Advisers Act, the management agreements of each of our investment funds would be terminated upon an “assignment” to a third-party of these agreements without appropriate investor consent, which assignment may be deemed to occur in the event these advisers were to experience a change of control. We cannot be certain that consents required to assignments of our investment management agreements will be obtained if a change of control occurs. “Assignment” of these agreements without investor consent could cause us to lose the fees we earn from such investment funds.
Third-party investors in our investment funds with commitment-based structures may not satisfy their contractual obligation to fund capital calls when requested by us, which could adversely affect a fund’s operations and performance.
Investors in our carry funds make capital commitments to those funds that we are entitled to call from those investors at any time during prescribed periods. We depend on investors fulfilling their commitments when we call capital from them in order for those funds to consummate investments and otherwise pay their obligations (for example, management fees) when due. Any investor that did not fund a capital call would generally be subject to several possible penalties, including having a significant amount of its existing investment forfeited in that fund. However, the impact of the penalty is directly correlated to the amount of capital previously invested by the investor in the fund and if an investor has invested little or no capital, for instance early in the life of the fund, then the forfeiture penalty may not be as meaningful. Investors may also negotiate for lesser or reduced penalties at the outset of the fund, thereby inhibiting our ability to enforce the funding of a capital call. Our use of subscription lines of credit to purchase an investment prior to calling capital from fund investors could increase the prevalence of defaulting limited partners. Should the value of an investment funded through a fund line-of-credit decline, especially early in a fund’s life-cycle where minimal capital has been contributed by the fund’s investors, a limited partner may decide not to fund its commitment. In addition, third-party investors in private equity, real estate assets and venture capital funds typically use distributions from prior investments to meet future capital calls. In cases where valuations of investors’ existing investments fall and the pace of distributions slows, investors may be unable to make new commitments to third-party managed investment funds such as those advised by us. If investors were to fail to satisfy a significant amount of capital calls for any particular fund or funds, the operation and performance of those funds could be materially and adversely affected.
In addition, our failure to comply with applicable pay-to-play laws, regulations and/or policies adopted by a number of states and municipal pension funds as well as the New York Attorney General’s Public Pension Fund Reform Code of Conduct, may, in certain instances, excuse a public pension fund investor from its obligation to make further capital contributions relating to all or any part of an investment or allow it to withdraw from the fund. If a public pension fund investor were to seek to be excused from funding a significant amount of capital calls for any particular fund or funds, the operation and performance of those funds could be materially and adversely affected.
Our failure to deal appropriately with conflicts of interest in our investment business could damage our reputation and adversely affect our businesses.
As we have expanded and as we continue to expand the number and scope of our businesses, we increasingly confront potential conflicts of interest relating to our funds’ investment activities. For example, a decision to acquire material, non-public information about a company while pursuing an investment opportunity for a particular fund may give rise to a potential conflict of interest that results in our having to restrict the ability of other funds to take any action. Certain of our funds, managed accounts or investment vehicles may have overlapping investment objectives, including co-investment funds and funds that have different fee structures, and potential conflicts may arise with respect to our decisions regarding how to allocate investment opportunities among those funds, managed accounts or investors. Different funds may invest in a single company, for example where the fund that made an initial investment no longer has capital available to invest or a follow-on opportunity
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arises. We may also cause different funds that we manage to purchase different classes of debt or securities in the same portfolio company. For example, one of our funds could acquire a debt security or bank loan issued by the same company in which one of our buyout funds owns common equity securities or several of our funds could be invested in different tranches of a company’s debt. A direct conflict of interest could arise between and among the debt holders and the equity holders if such a portfolio company was to develop insolvency concerns, and that conflict would have to be carefully managed by us. It is also possible that in the event the company goes through a bankruptcy proceeding, the interests of the fund holding the debt securities or loans may be subordinated, recharacterized or otherwise adversely affected by virtue of the involvement and actions of the fund holding the equity in the portfolio company. In such a case, the debt security or loan could be converted into equity and the prospects of repayment greatly diminished. Conflicts of interest may also exist in the valuation of our investments and regarding decisions about the allocation of specific investment opportunities among us and our funds and the allocation of fees and costs among us, our investment funds and their portfolio companies and conflicts could also arise in respect of the ultimate disposition of such investments. Due to changes in the tax treatment of carried interest under the TCJA and/or future legislation, conflicts of interest may arise with investors in certain of our funds in connection with the general partner’s decisions with respect to the sequence and timing of disposals of investments in such funds. To the extent we fail to appropriately deal with any such conflicts, it could negatively impact our reputation and ability to raise additional funds and the willingness of counterparties to do business with us or result in regulatory liability or potential litigation against us.
Our CLO business and investment into CLOs involves certain risks.
CLOs may present risks similar to other types of debt obligations and, in fact, such risks may be of greater significance in the case of CLOs. For example, investments in structured vehicles, including equity and junior debt securities issued by CLOs, involve risks, including credit risk and market risk. Changes in interest rates and credit quality may cause short-term price fluctuations or longer term impairment.
In addition to the general risks associated with investing in debt securities, CLO securities carry additional risks, including, but not limited to the possibility that distributions from collateral assets will be inadequate to make interest or other payments and the quality of the collateral may decline in value, default or be downgraded. Additionally, changes in the collateral held by a CLO may cause payments on the instruments we hold to be reduced, either temporarily or permanently. Non-payment could result in a reduction of our income and revenues. CLOs are less liquid than other types of securities and may be more volatile than the individual assets that make-up the CLOs. In addition, CLOs and other structured finance securities may be subject to prepayment risk. Further, the performance of a CLO or other structured finance security is generally affected by a variety of factors, including the security’s priority in the capital structure of the issuer thereof, the availability of any credit enhancement, the level and timing of payments and recoveries on and the characteristics of the underlying receivables, loans or other assets that are being securitized, remoteness of those assets from the originator or transferor, the adequacy of and ability to realize upon any related collateral and the capability of the servicer of the securitized assets. There are also the risks that the trustee of a CLO does not properly carry out its duties to the CLO, potentially resulting in loss to the CLO. In addition, the complex structure of the security may produce unexpected investment results, especially during times of market stress or volatility. Investments in structured finance securities may also be subject to liquidity risk.
During 2021, we earned approximately $122 million in management fees from our CLOs, prior to the effects of consolidation, of which approximately 67% are in the form of subordinated fees. The subordinated fees we generate from our CLO business could be negatively impacted if one or more CLOs fail certain tests related to overcollateralization (including the interest diversion test) set forth in their respective indentures. In the event that worsening credit conditions and/or a deterioration in loan performance generally leads to defaults or downgrades of the CLOs’ underlying collateral obligations, one or more CLOs could fail one or more overcollateralization tests and/or interest diversion tests. These risks are correlated, as when an underlying collateral obligation defaults or is downgraded below a certain threshold, such collateral obligation is then carried below par for the purpose of overcollateralization and interest diversion testing, making a failure of any such test more likely to occur. Any such failure would result in funds otherwise available to pay the management fees we earn on such investment vehicle to instead be used to either (x) pay down the principal on the securities issued by such vehicle in an amount necessary to cause such tests to pass or (y) purchase sufficient collateral in an amount necessary to cause such CLO to pass such tests. If either of these scenarios occurred, there is the potential that the remaining funds would be insufficient to pay expected management fees on any such CLO, which would result in either a temporary deferral or permanent loss of such management fees. For example, in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, ratings agencies downgraded certain underlying collateral obligations in our CLOs. As a result, we did not recognize approximately $7.0 million of subordinated management fees from our CLOs in the first and second quarters of 2020, but recognized such amounts in the third quarter of 2020 due to improvement in the underlying CLO portfolios.
Underwriting, syndicating and securities placement activities expose us to risks.
TCG Capital Markets may act as an underwriter, syndicator or placement agent for security offerings and TCG Senior Funding L.L.C. may act as an underwriter, originator, syndicator or placement agent in loan originations. If we are unable to
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sell securities or place loans at the anticipated price levels where we act as an underwriter, syndicator or placement agent, we may incur losses and suffer reputational harm.
As an underwriter, syndicator or placement agent, we also may be subject to potential liability for material misstatements or omissions in prospectuses and other offering documents relating to offerings we underwrite, syndicate or place. In certain situations, we may have liabilities arising from transactions in which our investment fund may participate as a purchase or a seller of securities, which could constitute a conflict of interest or subject us to damages or reputational harm.
Risk management activities may adversely affect the return on our and our funds’ investments.
When managing our exposure to market risks, we may (on our own behalf or on behalf of our funds) from time to time use forward contracts, options, swaps, caps, collars and floors or pursue other strategies or use other forms of derivative instruments to limit our exposure to changes in the relative values of investments that may result from market developments, including changes in prevailing interest rates, currency exchange rates and commodity prices. The scope of risk management activities undertaken by us varies based on the level and volatility of interest rates, prevailing foreign currency exchange rates, the types of investments that are made and other changing market conditions. The use of hedging transactions and other derivative instruments to reduce the effects of a decline in the value of a position does not eliminate the possibility of fluctuations in the value of the position or prevent losses if the value of the position declines. Such transactions may also limit the opportunity for gain if the value of a position increases. Moreover, it may not be possible to limit the exposure to a market development that is so generally anticipated that a hedging or other derivative transaction cannot be entered into at an acceptable price. The success of any hedging or other derivative transaction generally will depend on our ability to correctly predict market changes, the degree of correlation between price movements of a derivative instrument and the position being hedged, the creditworthiness of the counterparty and other factors. As a result, while we may enter into such a transaction in order to reduce our exposure to market risks, the transaction may result in poorer overall firm or investment performance than if it had not been executed. Such transactions may also limit the opportunity for gain if the value of a hedged position increases.
While such hedging arrangements may reduce certain risks, such arrangements themselves may entail certain other risks. These arrangements may require the posting of cash collateral at a time when a fund has insufficient cash or illiquid assets such that the posting of the cash is either impossible or requires the sale of assets at prices that do not reflect their underlying value. Moreover, these hedging arrangements may generate significant transaction costs, including potential tax costs, which may reduce the returns generated by the firm or a fund. See “—Risks Related to Our Company—Changing regulations regarding derivatives and commodity interest transactions could adversely impact various aspects of our business.”
Certain of our fund investments may be concentrated in particular asset types or geographic regions, which could exacerbate any negative performance of those funds to the extent those concentrated investments perform poorly.
The governing agreements of our investment funds contain only limited investment restrictions and only limited requirements as to diversification of fund investments, either by geographic region or asset type. For example, we advise funds that invest predominantly in the United States, Europe, Asia and Japan; and we advise funds that invest in a single industry sector, such as financial services, aviation, and power. During periods of difficult market conditions, slowdowns, or increased borrower defaults in these sectors or geographic regions, decreased revenue, difficulty in obtaining access to financing and increased funding costs experienced by our funds may be exacerbated by this concentration of investments, which would result in lower investment returns for our funds. Such concentration may increase the risk that events affecting a specific geographic region or asset type will have an adverse or disparate impact on such investment funds, as compared to funds that invest more broadly. Idiosyncratic factors impacting specific companies or securities can materially affect fund performance depending on the size of the position.
Our energy business is involved in oil and gas investments (i.e, exploration, production, storage, transportation, logistics, refining, marketing, trading, petrochemicals, energy services and other opportunistic investments), which involves a high degree of risk.
Our energy teams focus on investments in businesses involved in oil and gas production, development and exploration, which can be a speculative business involving a high degree of risk, including:
• the use of new technologies;
• reliance on estimates of oil and gas reserves in the evaluation of available geological, geophysical, engineering and economic data for each reservoir;
• encountering unexpected formations or pressures, premature declines of reservoirs, blow-outs, equipment failures and other accidents in completing wells and otherwise, cratering, sour gas releases, uncontrollable flows of oil, natural gas or well fluids, adverse weather conditions, pollution, fires, spills and other environmental risks;
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• the volatility of oil and natural gas prices and its impact on the demand for oil and gas products and services; and
• potential contributions to anthropogenic climate change.
Oil, gas and product prices are subject to international supply and demand dynamics, and, as a consequence, related margins can be volatile. In 2020, demand was negatively affected by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which triggered unprecedented global and local travel restrictions as well as regional and nationwide quarantines; this continues today. At the same time, supply was affected by the inability of the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (“OPEC”) to agree to crude production curtailments in the first half of 2020. The resultant supply surplus triggered accumulation of substantial inventories of crude oil and refined products. Together, these phenomena resulted in a large drop in crude oil prices, lower gas prices, and lower refining margins. In 2021, however, oil and gas prices rebounded sharply and rapidly, as stronger-than-expected demand outpaced sluggish supply; European consumers and businesses, in particular, face energy supply shortages and high prices heading into 2022. The European energy situation could further deteriorate in the near- and medium-term if events between Russia, Ukraine and NATO continue to escalate. In general, political developments, see-sawing supply-demand dynamics, technological change, global macroeconomic conditions, public health risks and changes in the influence of OPEC may continue to impact commodity prices going forward and the financial performance of some of our investments. Our investments that are exposed to energy prices, either as consumers or producers of energy, and their financial performance has been, and is likely to continue to be, affected by the continued volatility in energy prices. To the extent that current conditions persist or worsen, there may be adverse impacts on the financial performance of the affected businesses, on the availability of financing or credit to them as well as their asset prices and valuations.
Oil prices tend to experience significant volatility in response to macroeconomic trends, trade developments, geopolitical events, and data on inventories, global demand, future supply, and U.S. dollar strength. Oil’s strong performance in 2021, ending the year 14% above 2019 levels, is largely attributable to increased demand and persistent global supply discipline. Prices for oil and natural gas are subject to wide fluctuation in response to relatively minor changes in the supply of and demand for oil and natural gas as well as numerous additional factors such as market uncertainty, speculation, the level of consumer product demand, the refining capacity of oil purchasers, weather conditions, domestic and non-U.S. governmental regulations, appreciation or depreciation of the U.S. dollar, the price and availability of alternative fuels, political conditions in the Middle East, Africa, and Eastern Europe, actions of the OPEC, the non-U.S. supply of oil and natural gas, U.S. and global inventories, the price of non-U.S. imports and overall economic conditions. In addition, changes in commodity prices can vary widely from one location to the next depending upon the characteristics of the production and the availability of gathering, transportation, processing and storage facilities used to transport the oil and gas to markets. In the event that oil prices decline sharply in the future, or fail to sustain upward price momentum, it is possible our portfolio could be adversely impacted.
The current Administration has made climate change a key focus of its international and domestic policy agenda. It announced a moratorium on new leases on federal lands as well as an executive order aimed at aligning financial flows with its climate policy aimed at lowering greenhouse gas emissions. The executive order, “Tackling Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad”, issued in January 2021, includes several policy changes to address climate issues. The goal to conserve 30% of federal lands and waters by 2030 could pose tangential future risks to the operations and profitability of our portfolio companies in certain industries if they result in higher energy or other prices. In addition, U.S. regulatory authorities are increasingly focused on ESG-related practices. For example, the methodology used by ESG funds for determining socially responsible investments has been a focus area of the SEC, and the current Administration is generally focused on ESG matters. Climate and environmental impact have also been a focus area of the SEC, and the SEC is expected to propose new rules in this area in the near term. Further, changing customer or community perceptions related to climate considerations may have a negative impact on our portfolio companies and/or our ability to attract investors in these areas and may adversely affect our reputation. In addition, technological improvements or innovations that support the transition to a lower-carbon, energy-efficient economic system may increase competition or make it more difficult to attract capital to our energy business.
In January 2021, the current Administration issued an executive order, “Ensuring the Future Is Made in All of America by All of America’s Workers” which has the potential to impact federal contractors and certain grant and loan recipients and their contractors. While the only immediate impact of the order is the creation of a “Made in America” Office within the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to review federal agency waiver requests, the longer term impact of potential changes to the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) and statutory exemptions for commercial item information technology and trade agreements and the change in waiver procedures requirements for certain grant and loan programs could impact certain investments.
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Certain of our investment funds may invest in securities of companies that are experiencing significant financial or business difficulties, including companies involved in bankruptcy or other reorganization and liquidation proceedings. Such investments may be subject to a greater risk of poor performance or loss.
Certain of our investment funds, especially our distressed funds, may invest in business enterprises involved in work-outs, liquidations, reorganizations, bankruptcies and similar transactions and may purchase high risk receivables. An investment in such business enterprises entails the risk that the transaction in which such business enterprise is involved either will be unsuccessful, will take considerable time or will result in a distribution of cash or a new security the value of which will be less than the purchase price to the fund of the security or other financial instrument in respect of which such distribution is received. In addition, if an anticipated transaction does not in fact occur, the fund may be required to sell its investment at a loss. Investments in troubled companies may also be adversely affected by U.S. federal and state laws relating to, among other things, fraudulent conveyances, voidable preferences, lender liability and a bankruptcy court’s discretionary power to disallow, subordinate or disenfranchise particular claims. Investments in securities and private claims of troubled companies made in connection with an attempt to influence a restructuring proposal or plan of reorganization in a bankruptcy case may also involve substantial litigation, which has the potential to adversely impact us or unrelated funds or portfolio companies. Because there is substantial uncertainty concerning the outcome of transactions involving financially troubled companies, there is a potential risk of loss by a fund of its entire investment in such company.
Our private equity funds’ performance, and our performance, may be adversely affected by the financial performance of our portfolio companies and the industries in which our funds invest.
Our performance and the performance of our private equity funds are significantly impacted by the value of the companies in which our funds have invested. Our funds invest in companies in many different industries, each of which is subject to volatility based upon economic and market factors. During both the 2008 global financial crisis and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, we have experienced significant fluctuations in the fair value of securities held by our funds. The concomitant recession and recovery, or anticipated recovery, in the real economy subsequent to both the 2008 global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic also exerted and are expected to exert a significant impact on overall performance activity and the demands for many of the goods and services provided by portfolio companies of the funds we advise. Although we believe the U.S. economy has exited the recession induced by the COVID-19 pandemic, obstacles to continued growth remain, such as geopolitical and domestic political uncertainty, high inflation, a sharp shift in monetary policy, depressed labor force participation, high levels of public debt, slowing population growth, supply chain pressures and economic stress outside the U.S. These factors and other general economic trends can impact the performance of portfolio companies in many industries and geographies. In addition, the value of our investments in portfolio companies in the financial services industry is impacted by the overall health and stability of the credit and equity markets. While the U.S. dollar has weakened substantially since peaking in March 2020, a rebound in its strength could also depress the profits of domestic companies with significant foreign revenues, pressure oil prices, and increase default risk on U.S. dollar-denominated loans and bonds issued by businesses domiciled in emerging market economies (EMEs). An increase in emerging market corporate or sovereign defaults could further impair funding conditions or depress asset prices in these economies. The performance of our private equity funds, and our performance, may be adversely affected to the extent our fund portfolio companies experience adverse performance or additional pressure due to these exogenous factors, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the performance of our investment funds and our portfolio companies may be adversely affected by increases in inflationary pressures such as employee wage growth or rising input costs, which could compress profit margins, particularly at our portfolio companies that are unable to effectively increase prices in response. With respect to real estate, various factors could have an adverse effect on investment performance, including, but not limited to, deflation in consumer prices, a low level of consumer confidence in the economy and/or the residential real estate market and rising mortgage interest rates. In response to financial difficulties that are currently being experienced or that may be experienced in the future by certain portfolio companies or real estate investments, we may consider legal, regulatory, tax or other factors in determining the steps we may take to support such companies or investments, which may include enhancing the management team or funding additional capital investments from our investment funds, our senior Carlyle professionals and/or us. The actions we may take to support companies or investments experiencing financial difficulties may not be successful in remedying the financial difficulties and our investment funds, our senior Carlyle professionals or we may not recoup some or all of any capital investments made in support of such companies or investments.
The financial projections of our portfolio companies could prove inaccurate.
Our funds generally establish the capital structure of portfolio companies on the basis of financial projections prepared by the management of such portfolio companies. These projected operating results will normally be based primarily on judgments of the management of the portfolio companies. In all cases, projections are only estimates of future results that are based upon assumptions made at the time that the projections are developed. General economic conditions, which are not predictable, along with other factors may cause actual performance to fall short of the financial projections that were used to establish a given portfolio company’s capital structure. Because of the leverage that we typically employ in our investments, this could cause a substantial decrease in the value of our equity holdings in the portfolio company. The inaccuracy of financial
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projections could thus cause us to misstate the values of our fund’s investments and therefore our accrued performance allocations, and ultimately cause our funds’ performance to fall short of our expectations.
Contingent liabilities could harm fund performance.
We may cause our funds to acquire an investment that is subject to contingent liabilities. Such contingent liabilities could be unknown to us at the time of acquisition or, if they are known to us, we may not accurately assess or protect against the risks that they present. Acquired contingent liabilities could thus result in unforeseen losses for our funds. In addition, in connection with the disposition of an investment in a portfolio company, a fund may be required to make representations about the business and financial affairs of such portfolio company typical of those made in connection with the sale of a business. A fund may also be required to indemnify the purchasers of such investment to the extent that any such representations are inaccurate. These arrangements may result in the incurrence of contingent liabilities by a fund, even after the disposition of an investment. Accordingly, the inaccuracy of representations and warranties made by a fund could harm such fund’s performance.
We and our investment funds are subject to risks in using prime brokers, custodians, administrators and other agents and third-party service providers.
We and many of our investment funds depend on the services of prime brokers, custodians, administrators and other agents and third-party service providers to carry out certain securities transactions and other business functions.
The counterparty to one or more of our or our funds’ contractual arrangements could default on its obligations under the contract. If a counterparty defaults, we and our funds may be unable to take action to cover the exposure and we or one or more of our funds could incur material losses. Among other systems, our data security, data privacy, investor reporting and business continuity processes could be impacted by a third party’s inability or unwillingness to perform pursuant to our arrangements with them. In addition, we could suffer legal and reputational damage from such failure to perform if we are then unable to satisfy our obligations under our contracts with third parties or otherwise and could suffer losses in the event we are unable to comply with certain other agreements. In addition, under certain local clearing and settlement regimes, we or our funds could be subject to settlement discipline fines.
The terms of our contracts with third parties surrounding securities transactions are often customized and complex, and many of these arrangements occur in markets or relate to products that are not subject to regulatory oversight. In particular, some of our funds utilize prime brokerage arrangements with a relatively limited number of counterparties, which has the effect of concentrating the transaction volume (and related counterparty default risk) of these funds with these counterparties.
The consolidation and elimination of counterparties may increase our concentration of counterparty risk and decrease the number of potential counterparties. Our carry funds generally are not restricted from dealing with any particular counterparty or from concentrating any or all of their transactions with one counterparty. In the event of the insolvency of a party that is holding our assets or those of our funds as collateral, we and our funds may not be able to recover equivalent assets in full as we and our funds will rank among the counterparty’s unsecured creditors. In addition, our and our funds’ cash held with a prime broker, custodian or counterparty may not be segregated from the prime broker’s, custodian’s or counterparty’s own cash, and we and our funds therefore may rank as unsecured creditors in relation thereto. The inability to recover our or our investment funds’ assets could have a material impact on us or on the performance of our funds.
Investments in the natural resources industry, including the infrastructure and power industries, involve various operational, construction and regulatory risks.
Investment in infrastructure assets involves certain differentiated risks. Project revenues can be affected by a number of factors. Unanticipated changes in the availability or price of inputs necessary for the operation of infrastructure assets may adversely affect the overall profitability of the investment or related project. Events outside the control of a portfolio company, such as political action, governmental regulation (including potential climate change initiatives), demographic changes, economic growth, increasing fuel prices, government macroeconomic policies, toll rates, social stability, competition from untolled or other forms of transportation, natural disasters (climate change related or otherwise), changes in weather, changes in demand for products or services, bankruptcy or financial difficulty of a major customer and acts of war or terrorism, could significantly reduce the revenues generated or significantly increase the expense of constructing, operating, maintaining or restoring infrastructure facilities. In turn, this may impair a portfolio company’s ability to repay its debt, make distributions or even result in termination of an applicable concession or other agreement. Although portfolio companies may maintain insurance to protect against certain risks, where available on reasonable commercial terms (such as business interruption insurance that is intended to offset loss of revenues during an operational interruption), such insurance is subject to customary deductibles and coverage limits and may not be sufficient to recoup all of an investment’s losses. Furthermore, once infrastructure assets of investments become operational, they may face competition from other infrastructure assets in the
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vicinity of the assets they operate, the presence of which depends in part on governmental plans and policies, over which we have no control.
Infrastructure investments are subject to substantial government regulation and governments have considerable discretion to implement regulations that could affect the business of infrastructure investing. In many instances, the operation or acquisition of infrastructure assets involves an ongoing commitment to or from a governmental agency, and the operation of infrastructure assets often relies on government permits, licenses, concessions, leases or contracts. The nature of these obligations and dependencies expose the owners of infrastructure assets to a higher level of regulatory control than typically imposed on other businesses, resulting in government entities having significant influence over such owners.
Where a portfolio company holds a concession or lease from the government, the concession or lease may restrict the portfolio company’s ability to operate the business in a way that maximizes cash flows and profitability. The lease or concession may also contain clauses more favorable to the government counterparty than a typical commercial contract. For instance, the lease or concession may enable the government to terminate the lease or concession in certain circumstances without requiring payment of adequate compensation.
The development, operation and maintenance of power generation facilities involves various operational risks, which can include mechanical and structural failure, accidents, labor issues or the failure of technology to perform as anticipated. Events outside our control, such as economic developments, changes in fuel prices or the price of other feedstocks, governmental policies, demand for energy and similar events, could materially reduce the revenues generated or increase the expenses of constructing, operating, maintaining or restoring power generation businesses. Such developments could impair a portfolio company’s ability to repay its debt or conduct its operations. We may also choose to or be required to decommission a power generation facility or other asset. The decommissioning process could be protracted and result in the incurrence of significant financial and/or regulatory obligations or other uncertainties.
Our natural resource portfolio companies may also face construction and operational risks typical for energy, infrastructure and power generation infrastructure businesses, including, without limitation:
• labor disputes, work stoppages or shortages of skilled labor;
• shortages of fuels or materials;
• slower than projected construction progress and the unavailability or late delivery of necessary equipment;
• delays caused by or in obtaining the necessary regulatory approvals or permits;
• adverse weather conditions and unexpected construction conditions;
• accidents or the breakdown or failure of equipment or processes;
• difficulties in obtaining suitable or sufficient financing; and
• force majeure or catastrophic events such as explosions, fires and terrorist activities and other similar events beyond our control.
Such developments could result in substantial unanticipated delays or expenses and, under certain circumstances, and could prevent completion of construction activities once undertaken. Construction costs may exceed estimates for various reasons, including inaccurate engineering and planning, labor and building material costs in excess of expectations and unanticipated problems with project start-up. Such unexpected increases may result in increased debt service costs and funds being insufficient to complete construction. Portfolio investments under development or portfolio investments acquired to be developed may receive little or no cash flow from the date of acquisition through the date of completion of development and may experience operating deficits after the date of completion. In addition, market conditions may change during the course of development that make such development less attractive than at the time it was commenced. Any events of this nature could severely delay or prevent the completion of, or significantly increase the cost of, the construction. In addition, there are risks inherent in the construction work which may give rise to claims or demands against one of our portfolio companies from time to time. Delays in the completion of any energy or power project may result in lost revenues or increased expenses, including higher operation and maintenance costs related to such portfolio company.
We may acquire equity interests in development projects, including, without limitation, transmission and power facility developments and/or in businesses that engage in transmission and power facility development. To the extent that we invest in such development activities, it will be subject to the risks normally associated with such activities. Such risks include, without limitation, risks relating to the availability and timely receipt of zoning and other regulatory approvals, the cost and timely completion of construction (including risks beyond our control, such as weather or labor conditions or material shortages) and the availability of both construction and permanent financing on favorable terms. These risks could result in
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substantial unanticipated delays or expenses and, under certain circumstances, could prevent completion of development activities once undertaken, any of which could have an adverse effect on the financial condition and results of operations.
Investments in electric utility industries both in the United States and abroad continue to experience increasing competitive pressures, primarily in wholesale markets, as a result of consumer demands, technological advances, greater availability of natural gas and other factors. Changes in regulation may support not only consolidation among domestic utilities, but also the disaggregation of vertically integrated utilities into separate generation, transmission and distribution businesses. As a result, additional significant competitors could become active in the independent power industry.
We invest in companies that produce hy d rocarbons. Due to concerns over the risks of climate change, a number of countries have adopted, or are considering the adoption of, regulatory frameworks to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These include adoption of cap and trade regimes, carbon taxes, restrictive permitting, increased efficiency standards, and incentives or mandates for renewable energy. These requirements could be costly, lengthen project implementation times, and reduce demand for hydrocarbons, as well as shift hydrocarbon demand toward relatively lower-carbon sources such as natural gas. Current and pending greenhouse gas regulations or policies may also increase compliance costs for our portfolio companies, such as for monitoring or sequestering emissions. Additionally, such requirements could have a negative impact on our ability to obtain suitable or sufficient financing, exit certain of our energy investments or adversely affect the expected returns of new investment opportunities.
The energy, infrastructure, power and natural resource sectors are subject to comprehensive United States and non-U.S. federal, state and local laws and regulations. These regulators include the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (the “FERC”), which has jurisdiction over the transmission and wholesale sale of electricity in interstate commerce and over the transportation, storage and certain sales of natural gas in interstate commerce, including the rates, charges and other terms and conditions for such services, respectively and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (“NERC”), the purpose of which is to establish and enforce reliability standards applicable to all users, owners and operators of the bulk power system. These regulators derive their authority from, among other laws, the Federal Power Act, as amended (the “FPA”), The Energy Policy Act of 2005, the Natural Gas Act, as amended (the “NGA”) and state and local public utility laws. At the state level, some state laws require approval from the state commission before an electric utility operating in the state may divest or transfer electric generation facilities. Most state laws require approval from the state commission before an electric utility company operating in the state may divest or transfer distribution facilities. Failure to comply with applicable laws, rules regulations and standards could result in the prevention of operation of certain facilities or the prevention of the sale of such a facility to a third party, as well as the loss of certain rate authority, refund liability, penalties and other remedies, all of which could result in additional costs to a portfolio company and adversely affect the investment results. In addition, any legislative efforts by the current administration or Congress to overturn or modify policies or regulations enacted by the prior administration and to place additional limitations on coal and gas electric generation, mining and/or exploration could adversely affect our alternative energy investments.
Investments may not receive the initial regulatory approval or license needed to acquire or otherwise operate an investment, including after substantial costs have been incurred pursuing such investment. Additional or unanticipated regulatory approvals, including, without limitation, renewals, extensions, transfers, assignments, reissuances or similar actions, may be required to acquire or operate infrastructure assets, and additional approvals may become applicable in the future due to a change in laws and regulations, a change in the portfolio company’s customer(s) or for other reasons. Furthermore, permits or special rulings may be required on taxation, financial and regulatory related issues. There can be no assurance that a portfolio company will be able to (i) obtain all required regulatory approvals that it does not yet have or that it may require in the future, (ii) obtain any necessary modifications to existing regulatory approvals, or (iii) maintain required regulatory approvals. Any delay in obtaining or failure to obtain and maintain in full force and effect any regulatory approvals, or amendments thereto, or delay or failure to satisfy any regulatory conditions or other applicable requirements could prevent operation of a facility, sales to third parties or could result in additional costs and adversely impact the returns generated by the investment.
Environmental laws, regulations and regulatory initiatives (including potential climate change initiatives) play a significant role in the power, infrastructure and renewable and alternative energy industry and can have a substantial impact on investments in this industry. A portfolio company’s projects may be subject to changing and increasingly stringent environmental and health and safety laws, regulations and permit requirements. For example, global initiatives to minimize pollution have played a major role in the increase in demand for natural gas and alternative energy sources, creating numerous new investment opportunities. Conversely, required expenditures for environmental compliance have adversely impacted investment returns in a number of segments of the industry. The energy and power industry will continue to face considerable oversight from environmental regulatory authorities and significant influence from non-governmental organizations and special interest groups. Our investment funds may invest in portfolio companies that are subject to changing and increasingly stringent environmental and health and safety laws, regulations and permit requirements.
Estimates of factors such as solar energy intensity and movement of wind and water flow (for solar, wind and hydroelectric power, respectively) by qualified engineers are often a key factor in valuing certain energy and power companies.
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The process of making these estimates is complex, requiring significant decisions and assumptions in the evaluation of available geological, geophysical, engineering and economic data. Estimates or projections of market conditions and supply and demand dynamics are key factors in evaluating potential investment opportunities and valuing the Investments and related assets. The aforementioned estimates are subject to wide variances based on changes in market conditions, underlying assumptions and technical or investment-related assumptions.
The operation and financial performance of any renewable energy investment will be significantly dependent on governmental policies and regulatory frameworks that support renewable energy sources. Investments in renewable energy and related businesses and/or assets currently enjoy support from national, state and local governments and regulatory agencies designed to finance or support the financing development thereof, such as the U.S. federal investment tax credit and federal production tax credit, U.S. Department of the Treasury grants, various renewable and alternative portfolio standard requirements enacted by several states, renewable energy credits and state-level utility programs, such as system benefits charge and customer choice programs. Similar support, initiatives and arrangements exist in non-U.S. jurisdictions as well, in particular the European Union. Non-U.S. jurisdictions may have more variable views on policies regarding renewable energy (and, for example, may be more willing or likely to abandon initiatives regarding renewable energy in favor of more carbon-intensive forms of traditional energy generation). The combined effect of these programs is to subsidize in part the development, ownership and operation of renewable energy projects, particularly in an environment where the low cost of fossil fuel may otherwise make the cost of producing energy from renewable sources uneconomic. There can be no assurance that government support for renewable energy will continue, that favorable legislation will pass, or that the electricity produced by the renewable energy Investments will continue to qualify for support through the RPS programs. The elimination of, or reduction in, government policies (including favorable tax policies) that support renewable energy could have a material adverse effect on a renewable energy portfolio company’s financial condition or results of operation. Conversely, because policies favoring renewable energy initiatives may involve economic disincentives on more carbon-intensive forms of traditional energy generation, such policies may adversely affect other investments that do not involve renewable energy projects.
Investments in the insurance industry (including our investment in Fortitude) could be adversely impacted by insurance regulations and potential regulatory reforms.
Carlyle FRL, L.P., an affiliated investment fund (“Carlyle FRL”), holds an indirect 71.5% controlling interest in Fortitude Re, inclusive of our 19.9% interest, through its 71.5% controlling interest in Fortitude. The insurance industry is highly regulated and the regulators in many jurisdictions have broad, and in some cases discretionary, authority over insurance companies, including, among other things, with respect to marketing practices, policy rate increases, reserve requirements, permissible investments and affiliate transactions. In addition, the insurance sector is subject to frequent regulatory change. While we intend to invest in companies and acquire businesses that seek to comply with applicable laws and regulations, the laws and regulations relating to the insurance industry are complex, may be ambiguous or may lack clear judicial or regulatory interpretive guidance. Even where laws or regulations purport to be the same across different jurisdictions, they may be inconsistently applied by the regulators of the different jurisdictions.
In terms of regulatory changes, the following changes in particular may affect the operations and prospects of our investments in the insurance industry, including Fortitude: (i) changes to interest rates and policies of central banks and regulatory authorities; (ii) changes in applicable direct or indirect taxes, levies or charges; (iii) changes in government or regulatory policy that may significantly influence investor decisions in particular markets in which our investments operate; (iv) changes relating to the capital adequacy framework and rules designed to promote financial stability, both on an individual (re)insurance company level and on a group level; (v) changes to policyholder protections; and (vi) developments in financial reporting. An adverse review or determination by any applicable judicial or regulatory authority of any such law or regulation, or an adverse change in applicable regulatory requirements, judicial or regulatory interpretation, or reimbursement programs, could have a material adverse effect on the operations and/or financial performance of our investments in the insurance industry (including Fortitude) and may increase their compliance and legal costs. Any such costs could negatively impact the value of our investments and the returns we are able to generate on such investments.
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Our relationship with Fortitude may not generate a meaningful contribution to our revenue and our indirect controlling ownership of Fortitude could give rise to real or apparent conflicts of interest.
While we expect to derive a meaningful contribution to our revenue across our business segments from our investment in and strategic asset management relationship with Fortitude, as described in Note 4 to Part II. Item 8, “—Investments—Strategic Investment in Fortitude,” we may not be successful in doing so. Pursuant to investment management agreements into which we have entered with Fortitude Re and certain companies with which it has reinsurance agreements (the “Ceding Companies”), certain of our subsidiaries receive performance fees and/or management fees from carry funds and separately managed accounts into which Fortitude Re and the Ceding Companies invest. Through its subsidiaries we managed or advised $7.0 billion of capital attributable to investments made under these investment management agreements, as of December 31, 2021.
Our investment management agreements with Fortitude Re and the Ceding Companies are terminable under certain circumstances. If such investment management agreements were terminated, it could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. There can be no assurance that the benefit we receive from Fortitude Re will not decline due to a disruption or decline in Fortitude’s business or a change in our relationship with Fortitude, including our investment income from our indirect interest in Fortitude and/or investment management agreements with Fortitude Re and the Ceding Companies. We may be unable to replace a decline in the revenue derived from investments made in our funds and entities by Fortitude Re and/or the Ceding Companies on a timely basis if our relationship with Fortitude were to change or if Fortitude were to experience a material adverse impact to its business.
Carlyle FRL owns a controlling interest in Fortitude and has the right to appoint a majority of its board of directors. As a result, there may be real or apparent conflicts of interest with respect to matters affecting the Company, Carlyle-managed funds and their portfolio companies and Fortitude, including with respect to the fiduciary duties that our employees that are board members owe to Fortitude in addition to the duties that they have to the Company. In addition, conflicts of interest could arise with respect to transactions involving business dealings between the Company, Fortitude and each of their respective affiliates. The foregoing conflicts of interest may also arise with respect to subsidiaries of Fortitude, such as Fortitude Re, where Carlyle FRL owns an indirect controlling interest and has the right to appoint a majority of its board of directors.
Our Global Investment Solutions business is subject to additional risks.
Our Global Investment Solutions business is subject to additional risks, including the following:
• The Global Investment Solutions business is subject to business and other risks and uncertainties generally consistent with our business as a whole, including without limitation legal, tax and regulatory risks, the avoidance or management of conflicts of interest and the ability to attract and retain investment professionals and other personnel, and risks associated with the acquisition of new investment platforms.
• Pursuant to our current arrangements with the various businesses, we currently restrict our participation in the investment activities undertaken by our Global Investment Solutions segment (including with respect to AlpInvest), which may in turn limit our ability to address risks arising from their investment activities. For example, although we maintain ultimate control over AlpInvest, its management team (who are our employees) continue to exercise independent investment authority without involvement by other Carlyle personnel. For so long as these arrangements are in place, we will observe substantial restrictions on our ability to access investment information or engage in day-to-day participation in the AlpInvest investment businesses, including a restriction that AlpInvest investment decisions are made and maintained without involvement by other Carlyle personnel and that no specific investment data, other than data on the investment performance of its investment funds and managed accounts, will be shared. Generally, we have a reduced ability to identify or respond to investment and other operational issues that may arise within the Global Investment Solutions business, relative to other Carlyle investment funds.
• Similar to other parts of our business, Global Investment Solutions is seeking to broaden its investor base by raising funds and advising separate accounts for investors on an account-by-account basis and the number and complexity of such investor mandates and fund structures has increased as a result of continuing fundraising efforts, and the activation of mandates with existing investors.
• Conflicts may arise between such Global Investment Solutions funds or separate managed accounts (e.g., competition for investment opportunities), and in some cases conflicts may arise between an Global Investment Solutions fund or managed account and a Carlyle fund. In addition, certain managed accounts may have different or heightened standards of care, and if they invest in other investment funds sponsored by us could result in lower management fees and carried interest to us than Carlyle’s typical investment funds.
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• Our Global Investment Solutions business is separated from the rest of the firm by an informational wall designed to prevent certain types of information from flowing from the Global Investment Solutions platform to the rest of the firm. This information barrier limits the collaboration between our investment professionals with respect to specific investments.
Ongoing trade negotiations and potential for further regulatory reform may create regulatory uncertainty for our portfolio companies and our investment strategies and adversely affect the profitability of our portfolio companies.
Since March 2018, the United States has imposed, or threatened to impose, a series of various tariffs on a variety of goods imported into the U.S., with an emphasis on those imported from China and the EU. These new tariffs, or other changes in U.S. trade policy, have resulted in, and may continue to trigger, retaliatory actions by affected countries, particularly China. While the U.S. and China signed a preliminary trade deal in January 2020 halting further tariffs and increasing sales of U.S. goods to China, the agreement leaves in place most tariffs on Chinese goods.
The U.S. government has also implemented and expanded a number of economic sanctions programs and export controls that target Chinese entities and nationals on national security grounds, and has imposed restrictions on our ability to acquire and retain interests in the securities of certain Chinese entities. These initiatives target, for example, China’s response to political demonstrations in Hong Kong, China’s conduct concerning the treatment of Uighurs and other ethnic minorities in its Xinjiang province, and certain Chinese entities designated by the U.S. government as Communist Chinese military companies, among other things.
Tensions globally remain elevated and the path of future trade policy and further permanent trade agreements with China are still unclear. A “trade war” or other governmental action related to tariffs or international trade agreements or policies has the potential to increase costs, decrease margins, reduce the competitiveness of products and services offered by current and future portfolio companies and adversely affect the revenues and profitability of companies whose businesses rely on goods imported from or exported to any country impacted by such policies. In addition, tariff increases may adversely affect our suppliers and certain other customers of our portfolio companies, which could amplify the negative impact on our operating results or future cash flows.
Risks Related to Our Common Stock
The market price of our common stock may decline due to the large number of shares of common stock eligible for future sale.
The market price of our common stock could decline as a result of sales of a large number of shares of common stock in the market in the future or the perception that such sales could occur. These sales, or the possibility that these sales may occur, also might make it more difficult for us to sell common stock in the future at a time and at a price that we deem appropriate. Subject in some cases to compliance with our insider trading policy, minimum retained ownership requirements and limitations applicable to affiliates under Rule 144 under the Securities Act, all of these shares are freely tradable. In addition, the holders of these shares have the benefit of registration rights agreements with us. Moreover, as holders of freely tradable common stock rather than Carlyle Holdings units, the Former Private Unitholders are now able to more easily sell shares of common stock into the market (or donate shares of common stock to charities which in turn may sell these into the market) than was the case before the Conversion. For example, the Former Private Unitholders are no longer subject to restrictions that in most cases limited their ability to exchange Holdings Units for common units to prescribed quarterly exchange dates. This could result in the Former Private Unitholders disposing of their equity interests in us more quickly and/or at a higher volumes than in the past, and the market price of our common stock could decline as a result. Subject to the restrictions described below, we may issue and sell in the future additional shares of common stock. The issuance of additional equity securities or securities convertible into equity securities would also result in dilution of our existing stockholders’ equity interest. The issuance of the additional shares of common stock, the sale of shares of common stock by our significant stockholders and the vesting and sale of restricted stock units or the perception that such sales may occur could cause the market price of our common stock to decline.
Under our Equity Incentive Plan, we had 14,775,651 unvested restricted stock units outstanding as of December 31, 2021. In June 2021, our stockholders approved an amended and restated Equity Incentive Plan pursuant to which we may issue up to 16,000,000 awards. As of December 31, 2021, the total number of shares of common stock available for grant under the amended and restated Equity Incentive Plan was 15,636,767. We have filed several registration statements and intend to file additional registration statements on Form S-8 under the Securities Act to register shares of common stock or securities convertible into or exchangeable for common stock issued or available for future grant under our amended and restated Equity Incentive Plan when applicable. Any such Form S-8 registration statement will automatically become effective upon filing. Accordingly, common stock registered under such registration statement will be available for sale in the open market. Morgan Stanley, our equity plan service provider, may, from time to time, act as a broker, dealer, or agent for, or otherwise facilitate sales in the open market through block transactions or otherwise of our common stock on behalf of, plan participants, including
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in connection with sales of shares of common stock to fund tax obligations payable in connection with the vesting of awards under our amended and restated Equity Incentive Plan.
The market price of our common stock may be volatile, which could cause the value of your investment to decline.
Our common stock may trade less frequently than those of certain more mature companies due to the limited number of shares of common stock held by non-affiliates outstanding. Due to such limited trading volume, the price of our common stock may display abrupt or erratic movements at times. Additionally, it may be more difficult for investors to buy and sell significant amounts of our common stock without an unfavorable impact on prevailing market prices.
The market price of our common stock may be highly volatile and could be subject to wide fluctuations. Securities markets worldwide experience significant price and volume fluctuations. This market volatility, as well as general economic, market or political conditions, could reduce the market price of our common stock in spite of our operating performance. In addition, our operating results could be below the expectations of public market analysts and investors due to a number of potential factors, including variations in our quarterly operating results or dividends to common stockholders, additions or departures of key management personnel, failure to meet analysts’ earnings estimates, publication of research reports about our industry, litigation and government investigations, changes or proposed changes in laws or regulations or differing interpretations or enforcement thereof affecting our business, adverse market reaction to any indebtedness we may incur or securities we may issue in the future, changes in market valuations of similar companies or speculation in the press or investment community, announcements by our competitors of significant contracts, acquisitions, dispositions, strategic partnerships, joint ventures or capital commitments, adverse publicity about the industries in which we participate or individual scandals, the COVID-19 pandemic, general market conditions and other events or occurrences, and in response the market price of our common stock could decrease significantly. You may be unable to resell your common stock at or above the price you paid for them.
In the past few years, stock markets have experienced extreme price and volume fluctuations. In the past, following periods of volatility in the overall market and the market price of a company’s securities, securities class action litigation has often been instituted against public companies. This type of litigation, if instituted against us, could result in substantial costs and a diversion of our management’s attention and resources.
Carlyle Group Management L.L.C. has significant influence over us and its interests may conflict with ours or yours.
Carlyle Group Management L.L.C., which is wholly owned and controlled by our founders and other senior Carlyle professionals, holds approximately 43% of the voting power of our common sto ck as of December 31, 2021 pursuant to an irrevocable proxy granted to it by senior Carlyle professionals and certain other former limited partners of Carlyle Holdings who became holders of shares of common stock in connection with the Conversion.
For so long as Carlyle Group Management L.L.C. continues to have voting power over a significant percentage of our common stock, even though such amount is less than 50%, it will still be able to significantly influence the composition of our Board of Directors and the approval of actions requiring stockholder approval. Accordingly, for such period of time, Carlyle Group Management L.L.C. will have significant influence with respect to our management, business plans and policies, including the appointment and removal of our officers. In particular, for so long as Carlyle Group Management L.L.C. continues to own a significant percentage of our common stock, it will be able to cause or prevent a change of control of our company or a change in the composition of our Board of Directors and could preclude any unsolicited acquisition of our company. The concentration of ownership could delay or deter possible changes in control of our company and could deprive you of an opportunity to receive a premium for your shares of common stock as part of a sale of our company and ultimately might affect the market price of our common stock. The interests of Carlyle Group Management L.L.C. may not coincide with our interests or the interests of other holders of our common stock.
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We are transitioning from a “controlled company” to no longer being a “controlled company” within the meaning of the rules of Nasdaq and the SEC. However, even though we are no longer a “controlled company”, we will continue to qualify for, and as a result rely on, exceptions from certain corporate governance requirements under the rules of Nasdaq during a one-year transition period.
Prior to August 5, 2021, we were a “controlled company” and qualified for exceptions from certain corporate governance and other requirements of the rules of Nasdaq. Pursuant to these exceptions, controlled companies may elect not to comply with certain corporate governance requirements of Nasdaq, including the requirements (1) that a majority of our Board of Directors consist of independent directors, (2) that we have a compensation committee that is composed entirely of independent directors, (3) that the compensation committee be required to consider certain independence factors when engaging compensation consultants, legal counsel and other committee advisors, and (4) that we have independent director oversight of director nominations. We have availed ourselves of these exceptions in the past and continue to rely on certain of these exceptions as permitted by the rules of Nasdaq. Accordingly, our stockholders generally do not have the same protections afforded to stockholders of companies that are subject to all of the corporate governance requirements of Nasdaq. As of August 5, 2021, Carlyle Group Management L.L.C.’s ownership of our common stock decreased below 50% of our outstanding common stock and, as of such date, we ceased to be a “controlled company” under Nasdaq rules. However, even though we are not a "controlled company," we will continue to be able to rely on certain of the foregoing exemptions from certain corporate governance requirements during a one-year transition period. The Nasdaq rules require that our Board be composed of a majority of "independent directors", as defined under the rules of Nasdaq, and that our compensation committee and our nominating and corporate governance committee consist entirely of independent directors, by August 5, 2022. If we fail to meet the above deadlines for these requirements, our common stock could be delisted from Nasdaq, which would negatively impact the trading of our common shares and our business and financial condition. In addition, as we transition to a non-controlled company, we may incur additional corporate governance and other compliance costs, including increased director compensation for additional independent directors and expanded governance committees.
Our founders have the right to designate members of our Board of Directors.
Pursuant to the stockholder agreements with each of our founders, for so long as such founder and/or his “Founder Group” (as defined in the stockholder agreements) beneficially owns at least 5% of our issued and outstanding common stock, each of our founders will have the right to nominate one director to our Board of Directors. In addition, each founder will have the right to nominate a second director to our Board of Directors until the earlier of (x) such time as such founder and/or his Founder Group ceases to beneficially own at least 20 million shares of our common stock and (y) January 1, 2027. For so long as at least one founder is entitled to designate two directors to the board, the founders then serving on our Board of Directors may (i) designate a founder to serve as chair or co-chair and (ii) designate a founder to serve on each of the compensation and nominating committees and any executive committee, subject to applicable law and listing standards. Accordingly, for such period of time, our founders will have significant influence over the composition of our board and could prevent certain changes in the composition of our Board of Directors.
Our certificate of incorporation will not limit the ability of our former general partner, founders, directors, officers or stockholders to compete with us.
Our certificate of incorporation provides that none of Carlyle Group Management L.L.C., any person that controls Carlyle Group Management L.L.C., and our founders, directors and officers and stockholders will have any duty to refrain from engaging, directly or indirectly, in the same business activities or similar business activities or lines of business in which we operate. In the ordinary course of their business activities, these persons may engage in activities where their interests conflict with our interests or those of our other stockholders.
These persons also may pursue acquisition opportunities that may be complementary to our business, and, as a result, those acquisition opportunities may not be available to the Company. In addition, these persons may have an interest in our pursuing acquisitions, divestitures and other transactions that, in their judgment, could enhance their investment, even though such transactions might involve risks to our common stockholders.
Anti-takeover provisions in our organizational documents and Delaware law might discourage or delay acquisition attempts for us that you might consider favorable.
Our certificate of incorporation and bylaws contain provisions that may make the merger or acquisition of our company more difficult without the approval of our Board of Directors. Among other things, these provisions:
• provide that our Board of Directors will be divided into three classes, as nearly equal in size as possible, which directors in each class serving three-year terms and with terms of the directors of only one class expiring in any given year;
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• provide for the removal of directors only for cause;
• provide that, if at any time any person or group (other than Carlyle Group Management L.L.C. and its affiliates, a direct or subsequently approved transferee of Carlyle Group Management L.L.C. or its affiliates) beneficially owns 20% or more of any class of stock then outstanding, that person or group will lose voting rights on all of its shares of stock and such shares may not be voted on any matter;
• would allow us to authorize the issuance of shares of one or more series of preferred stock, including in connection with a stockholder rights plan, financing transactions or otherwise, the terms of which series may be established and the shares of which may be issued without stockholder approval, and which may include super voting, special approval, dividend, or other rights or preferences superior to the rights of the holders of common stock;
• prohibit stockholder action by written consent unless such action is consented by the Board of Directors;
• provide for certain limitations on convening special stockholder meetings;
• provide (i) that the board of directors is expressly authorized to make, alter, or repeal our bylaws and (ii) that our stockholders may only amend our bylaws with the approval of at least a majority of all of the outstanding shares of our capital stock entitled to vote; and
• establish advance notice requirements for nominations for elections to our board or for proposing matters that can be acted upon by stockholders at stockholder meetings.
Further, as a Delaware corporation, we are also subject to provisions of Delaware law, which may impede or discourage a takeover attempt that our stockholders may find beneficial. These anti-takeover provisions and other provisions under Delaware law, our stockholder agreements with our founders and proxy held by Carlyle Group Management L.L.C. could discourage, delay or prevent a transaction involving a change in control of our company, including actions that our stockholders may deem advantageous, or could negatively affect the trading price of our common stock. These provisions could also discourage proxy contests and make it more difficult for you and other stockholders to elect directors of your choosing and to cause us to take other corporate actions you desire.
The provision of our certificate of incorporation requiring exclusive venue in the Court of Chancery in the State of Delaware for certain types of lawsuits may have the effect of discouraging lawsuits against us and our directors, officers and stockholders.
Our certificate of incorporation requires, to the fullest extent permitted by law, that any claims, suits, actions or proceedings arising out of or relating in any way to our certificate of incorporation may only be brought in the Court of Chancery of the State of Delaware or, if such court does not have subject matter jurisdiction thereof, any other court in the State of Delaware with subject matter jurisdiction. This provision may have the effect of discouraging lawsuits against us and our directors, officers and stockholders.
If The Carlyle Group Inc. were deemed to be an “investment company” under the Investment Company Act, applicable restrictions could make it impractical for us to continue our business as contemplated and could have a material adverse effect on our business.
An entity generally will be deemed to be an “investment company” for purposes of the Investment Company Act if:
• it is or holds itself out as being engaged primarily, or proposes to engage primarily, in the business of investing, reinvesting or trading in securities; or
• absent an applicable exemption, it owns or proposes to acquire investment securities having a value exceeding 40% of the value of its total assets (exclusive of U.S. government securities and cash items) on an unconsolidated basis.
We believe that we are engaged primarily in the business of providing asset management services and not in the business of investing, reinvesting or trading in securities. We hold ourselves out as an asset management firm and do not propose to engage primarily in the business of investing, reinvesting or trading in securities. Accordingly, we do not believe that The Carlyle Group Inc. is an “orthodox” investment company as defined in section 3(a)(1)(A) of the Investment Company Act and described in the first bullet point above. Furthermore, The Carlyle Group Inc. does not have any material assets other than its interests in certain wholly owned subsidiaries, which in turn have no material assets other than general partner interests in the Carlyle Holdings partnerships. These wholly owned subsidiaries are the sole general partners of the Carlyle Holdings partnerships and are vested with all management and control over the Carlyle Holdings partnerships. We do not believe that the equity interests of The Carlyle Group Inc. in its wholly owned subsidiaries or the general partner interests of these wholly owned subsidiaries in the Carlyle Holdings partnerships are investment securities. Moreover, because we believe that the capital interests of the general partners of our funds in their respective funds are neither securities nor investment securities, we believe
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that less than 40% of The Carlyle Group Inc.’s total assets (exclusive of U.S. government securities and cash items) on an unconsolidated basis are composed of assets that could be considered investment securities. Accordingly, we do not believe that The Carlyle Group Inc. is an inadvertent investment company by virtue of the 40% test in section 3(a)(1)(C) of the Investment Company Act as described in the second bullet point above. In addition, we believe that The Carlyle Group Inc. is not an investment company under section 3(b)(1) of the Investment Company Act because it is primarily engaged in a non-investment company business.
The Investment Company Act and the rules thereunder contain detailed parameters for the organization and operation of investment companies. Among other things, the Investment Company Act and the rules thereunder limit or prohibit transactions with affiliates, impose limitations on the issuance of debt and equity securities, generally prohibit the issuance of options and impose certain governance requirements. We intend to conduct our operations so that The Carlyle Group Inc. will not be deemed to be an investment company under the Investment Company Act. If anything were to happen which would cause The Carlyle Group Inc. to be deemed to be an investment company under the Investment Company Act, requirements imposed by the Investment Company Act, including limitations on our capital structure, ability to transact business with affiliates (including us) and ability to compensate key employees, could make it impractical for us to continue our business as currently conducted, impair the agreements and arrangements between and among The Carlyle Group Inc. and our senior Carlyle professionals and materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition. In addition, we may be required to limit the amount of investments that we make as a principal or otherwise conduct our business in a manner that does not subject us to the registration and other requirements of the Investment Company Act.
The consolidation of investment funds, holding companies or operating businesses of our portfolio companies could make it more difficult to understand the operating performance of the Company and could create operational risks for the Company.
Under applicable U.S. GAAP standards, we may be required to consolidate certain of our investment funds, holding companies or operating businesses if we determine that these entities are VIEs and that we are the primary beneficiary of the VIE, as discussed in Note 2 to our consolidated financial statements included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K. The consolidation of such entities could make it difficult for an investor to differentiate our assets, liabilities, and results of operations apart from the assets, liabilities, and results of operations of the consolidated VIEs. The assets of the consolidated VIEs are not available to meet our liquidity requirements and similarly we generally have not guaranteed or assumed any obligation for repayment of the liabilities of the consolidated VIEs.
As of December 31, 2021, the total assets and liabilities of the consolidated VIEs reflected in the consolidated balance sheets were $6.9 billion and $6.6 billion, respectively.
As a public entity, we are subject to the reporting requirements of the Exchange Act, as amended, and requirements of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (the “Sarbanes-Oxley Act”). The Exchange Act requires that we file annual, quarterly and current reports with respect to our business and financial condition, and provide an annual assessment of the effectiveness of our internal control over financial reporting. The Sarbanes-Oxley Act requires that we maintain effective disclosure controls and procedures and internal controls over financial reporting. In order to maintain and improve the effectiveness of our disclosure controls and procedures and internal controls over financial reporting as required by the Exchange Act, significant resources and management oversight are required. We have implemented procedures and processes for the purpose of addressing the standards and requirements applicable to public companies. The VIEs that we consolidate as the primary beneficiary are, subject to certain transition guidelines, included in our annual assessment of the effectiveness of our internal control over financial reporting under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. As a result, we will need to continue to implement and oversee procedures and processes to integrate such operations into our internal control structure. If we are not able to implement or maintain the necessary procedures and processes, we may be unable to report our financial information on a timely or accurate basis and could be subject adverse consequences, including sanctions by the SEC or violations of applicable Nasdaq listing rules, and could result in a breach of the covenants under the agreements governing our financing arrangements. There could also be a negative reaction in the financial markets due to a loss of investor confidence in us and the reliability of our financial statements.
Risks Related to Taxation
Changes in relevant tax laws, regulations or treaties or an adverse interpretation of these items by tax authorities could negatively impact our effective tax rate and tax liability.
Our effective tax rate and tax liability is based on the application of current income tax laws, regulations and treaties. These laws, regulations and treaties are complex, and the manner which they apply to us and our funds is sometimes open to interpretation. Significant management judgment is required in determining our provision for income taxes, our deferred tax assets and liabilities and any valuation allowance recorded against our net deferred tax assets. Although management believes its application of current laws, regulations and treaties to be correct and sustainable upon examination by the tax authorities, the
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tax authorities could challenge our interpretation, resulting in additional tax liability or adjustment to our income tax provision that could increase our effective tax rate.
There may be changes in tax laws or interpretations of tax laws (possibly with retrospective effect) in jurisdictions in which we operate, are managed, are advised, are promoted or invest. In particular, both the level and basis of taxation may change. Changes to taxation treaties or interpretations of taxation treaties between one or more such jurisdictions and the countries through which we hold investments, or the introduction of, or change to, EU directives may adversely affect our ability to efficiently realize income or capital gains and to efficiently repatriate income and capital gains from the jurisdictions in which they arise. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic could prompt governments to increase taxes to fund relief measures, and/or assert taxing jurisdiction on account of remote working conditions. Consequently, it is possible that we may face unfavorable tax treatment that may materially adversely affect the value of our investments or the feasibility of making investments in certain countries. This could significantly affect returns to investors, cause us to revalue our net deferred tax assets and/or have a material change to our effective tax rate and tax liabilities.
For example, the TCJA, and guidance interpreting the TCJA since its enactment in 2017, have resulted in many significant changes to the U.S. federal income tax laws, some of which could adversely impact us and/or our portfolio companies, including changes to the taxation of carried interest, changes to the deductibility of certain interest expense and compensation, limitations on the utilization of net operating losses, and changes relating to the scope and timing of U.S. taxation of earnings from international operations (including through an expanded definition of “controlled foreign corporations,” introduction of a minimum tax on “global intangible low-taxed income” (“GILTI”), and changes to the creditability of foreign taxes). Further, foreign, state and local governments may enact tax laws in response to the TCJA that could result in further changes to foreign, state and local taxation and have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition and cash flow.
The 2020 U.S. presidential and congressional elections (and future elections) could result in additional fundamental changes in tax law and regulations. While the likelihood and nature of any such legislation or regulations going into effect is uncertain, the U.S. Congress and the Biden administration have proposed and may pursue tax policy changes. For example, the proposed legislation in the Build Back Better Act, which was passed by the U.S. House of Representatives on November 19, 2021, would impose a 15% minimum tax on book income for corporations with profits over $1 billion, change the GILTI and foreign tax credit regimes, impose a 1% excise tax on certain stock repurchases, further limit compensation deductions under Section 162(m) of the Code, reduce the deduction for “foreign-derived intangible income,” and create a new limitation on interest deductions, among other things. Any such tax changes could materially increase the amount of taxes we, our portfolio companies, our investors, or our employees and other key personnel would be required to pay.
International tax developments may also significantly impact us. Pursuant to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (the “OECD”) base erosion and profit shifting (“BEPS”) Project, many individual jurisdictions have introduced domestic legislation implementing certain of the BEPS action points. Several of the areas of tax law (including double taxation treaties) on which the BEPS Project focuses are relevant to our ability to efficiently realize income or capital gains and to efficiently repatriate income and capital gains from the jurisdictions in which they arise and, depending on the extent to and manner in which relevant jurisdictions have implemented (or implement, as the case may be) changes in those areas of tax law (including double taxation treaties), our ability to do those things may be adversely impacted. Many of the jurisdictions in which we will make investments have now ratified, accepted and approved the OECD’s Multilateral Instrument which brings into force a number of relevant changes to double tax treaties within scope. While these changes continue to be introduced, there remains uncertainty as to whether and, if so, to what extent we may benefit from the protections afforded by such treaties and whether our funds may look to their partners in order to derive tax treaty or other benefits. This position is likely to remain uncertain for a number of years. In addition, press speculation and heightened focus on the structures commonly used in the private equity industry in general, whether or not valid, may harm our reputation which may ultimately be damaging to our business.
In addition, the EU has adopted (and subsequently extended) an Anti-Tax Avoidance Directive (the “ATAD rules”), which directly implements some of the BEPS Project action points within EU law and requires EU Member States to transpose the ATAD rules into their domestic laws. The most recent provisions of the ATAD rules to come into effect were rules targeting reverse hybrids, which generally apply from January 1, 2022. The ATAD rules and the domestic laws which implement them are extensive, complex and could apply to a wide range of scenarios. We are also still waiting for the issuance of guidance from several countries. These rules could have an adverse tax impact on our firm, funds, investors and/or our portfolio companies.
On December 22, 2021, the European Commission issued a proposal for a Council Directive laying down rules to prevent the misuse of shell entities for tax purposes within the EU (the “Unshell Proposal”). While the Unshell Proposal is expected to be adopted and published into EU member states’ national laws by 30 June 2023, and to come into effect as of 1 January 2024, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the development of the proposal and its implementation. The
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proposal could result in additional tax costs and/or reporting and disclosure obligations (which could result in increased administrative and compliance costs) for our entities.
The OECD is also working on proposals, commonly referred to as “BEPS 2.0”, which, if implemented, would fundamentally change the international tax system. The proposals are based on two “pillars” involving the reallocation of taxing rights (Pillar One) and a new global minimum corporate tax rate (Pillar Two).
Under Pillar One, multinational enterprises (“MNEs”) with an annual global turnover of at least EUR 20 billion will be subject to rules allocating 25% of profits in excess of a 10% profit margin to the jurisdictions within which they carry on business (subject to threshold rules). MNEs carrying on specific low-risk activities are excluded, including “regulated financial services” (yet to be defined). Pillar Two imposes a minimum effective tax rate of 15% on MNEs that have consolidated revenues of at least EUR 750 million in at least two out of the last four years . Pillar Two introduces two related tax measures (the “GloBE” rules): the income inclusion rule (“IIR”) imposes a top up tax on a parent entity where a constituent member of the MNE group has low-taxed income while the undertaxed payment rule (“UTPR”) applies to intra-group payments if the constituent member’s income is not taxed by an IIR. Additionally, a subject to tax rule (“STTR”) will permit source jurisdictions to impose limited withholding taxes on low-taxed related party payments, which will be creditable against the GloBE rules tax liability. Specified classes of entities which are typically exempt from tax are outside the scope of Pillar Two, including investment funds and real estate investment vehicles (as respectively defined) which are the ultimate parent entity of the MNE group (and certain holding vehicles of such entities).
The implementation of the Pillar One and Pillar Two proposals is scheduled for 2023, with the UTPR coming into effect in 2024. On December 20, 2021, the OECD released Pillar Two model rules providing a template for jurisdictions to translate the GloBE rules into domestic law (and in this respect the EU Commission, on December 22, 2021, issued a proposal for a Council Directive on ensuring a global minimum level of taxation for multinational groups in the EU), although much more detail (including implementation details on Pillar One) is still awaited. Subject to the development and implementation of both Pillar One and Pillar Two (including the related EU Council Directive proposal and the details of any domestic legislation, double taxation treaty amendments and multilateral agreements which are necessary to implement them), effective tax rates could increase for our firm, funds, portfolio companies and investors.Tax laws, regulations or treaties newly enacted or enacted in the future may cause us to revalue our net deferred tax assets and have a material change to our effective tax rate and tax liabilities.
The Netherlands continued to provide additional updates to its withholding tax on dividends. Following EU case law, three safe harbor rules currently embedded in domestic anti-abuse rules as part of the Dividend Withholding Tax Act and the Corporate Income Tax Act will no longer function as a safe harbor rule. Conditional withholding tax on dividends will be introduced as of 2024. A draft bill, including amendments, on a proposed dividend withholding tax exit charge has been presented to parliament. If the bill is accepted, it would be retroactively effective December 8, 2021. We are evaluating and monitoring the impact of these changes which could result in additional withholding on certain payments for us and our investment funds.
U.S. and foreign tax regulations could adversely affect our ability to raise funds from certain foreign investors and increase compliance costs.
Under the U.S. Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (“FATCA”), U.S. withholding agents and all entities in a broadly defined class of foreign financial institutions (“FFIs”) are required to comply with a complicated and expansive reporting regime or be subject to certain U.S. withholding taxes. In connection with this law, various foreign governments have entered into intergovernmental agreements (“IGAs”) with the U.S. government. The reporting obligations imposed under FATCA require FFIs to enter into agreements with the IRS to perform due diligence and to report information about certain account holders and investors to the IRS (or in the case of certain FFIs that are resident in a jurisdiction that has entered into an IGA to implement this legislation, to comply with the diligence and reporting obligations of such IGA). Additionally, certain non-U.S. entities that are not FFIs are required to either certify they have no substantial U.S. beneficial ownership or report certain information with respect to their substantial U.S. beneficial ownership. Failure to comply with these requirements could expose us and/or our investors to a 30% withholding tax on certain U.S. payments and possibly limit our ability to open bank accounts and secure funding in the global capital markets. The administrative and economic costs of compliance with FATCA may discourage some foreign investors from investing in U.S. funds, which could adversely affect our ability to raise funds from these investors.
Other countries, such as Luxembourg, the United Kingdom and the Cayman Islands, have implemented and are participating in a multi-jurisdictional regime known as the Common Reporting Standard (“CRS”), which is similar to that of FATCA (without the withholding requirement), and in some cases, have imposed penalties on non-compliant institutions. Rules have been and continue to be introduced (in particular pursuant to the EU “Directive on Administrative Co-Operation, or “DAC6”, and the OECD’s model Mandatory Disclosure Rules) which require the reporting to tax authorities of information about certain types of arrangement, including arrangements which may circumvent the CRS. Compliance under these and
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similar regimes as described above could result in increased administrative and compliance costs for our investment entities and, in some cases, could subject our investment entities to increased withholding taxes.
We expect to pay more corporate income taxes than we would have as a limited partnership prior to the Conversion.
Our Conversion was effective on January 1, 2020. Following the Conversion, all of the net income attributable to The Carlyle Group Inc. is subject to U.S. federal (and state and local) corporate income taxes, which we anticipate will continue to have a dilutive impact to Distributable Earnings per share of common stock and net income and reduce the amount of cash available for dividends to our common stockholders. Prior to the Conversion, only a portion of the income attributable to us was subject to U.S. federal, state and local corporation income taxes. The additional corporate income tax we pay as a result of the Conversion could grow if currently enacted corporate tax rates increase or changes to tax law otherwise cause us to pay more corporate income taxes.
ITEM 1B. UNRESOLVED STAFF COMMENTS
None.
ITEM 2. PROPERTIES
Our principal executive offices are located in leased office space at 1001 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, D.C. We also lease the space for our other 25 offices. We do not own any real property. We consider these facilities to be suitable and adequate for the management and operation of our business.