Item 1A. Risk Factors
Item 1A. Risk Factors .
The risk factors in this Form 10-Q below should be carefully considered, including the risk factors discussed in "Risk Factors" and other risks discussed in our Form 10-K, our Form 10-Q for the quarter ended February 29, 2020, and other filings with the SEC since the date of the Form 10-K. These risks could materially and adversely affect our results, operations, outlooks, plans, goals, growth, reputation, cash flows, liquidity, and stock price. Our business also could be affected by risks that we are not presently aware of or that we currently consider immaterial to our operations.
• COVID-19 has had, and is expected to continue to have, a significant impact on our financial condition and operations, which impacts our ability to obtain acceptable financing to fund resulting reductions in cash from operations. The current, and uncertain future, impact of the COVID-19 outbreak, including its effect on the ability or desire of people to travel (including on cruises), is expected to continue to impact our results, operations, outlooks, plans, goals, growth, reputation, litigation, cash flows, liquidity, and stock price
The spread of COVID-19 and the recent developments surrounding the global pandemic are having material negative impacts on all aspects of our business. We have implemented a pause of our guest cruise operations across all brands and such pause may be prolonged. In addition, we have been, and will continue to be further, negatively impacted by related developments, including heightened governmental regulations and travel advisories, recommendations by the U.S. Department of State, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other regulatory authorities, and travel bans and restrictions, each of which has impacted, and is expected to continue to significantly impact, global guest sourcing and our access to various ports of call.
To date we have incurred, and expect to continue to incur, significant costs as we pause our guest cruise operations, provide air transportation to return our passengers to their home destinations, repatriate shipboard team members and assist some of our crew that is, or will be upon docking, unable to return home, with food and housing. We will continue to incur COVID-19 related costs as we sanitize our ships and implement additional hygiene-related protocol to our ships, as well as prepare for the resumption of guest operations. In addition, the industry may be subject to enhanced health and hygiene requirements in attempts to counteract future outbreaks, which requirements may be costly and take a significant amount of time to implement across our global fleet cruise operations.
Due to the outbreak of COVID-19 on some of our ships, and the resulting illness and loss of life in certain instances, we have been the subject of negative publicity which could have a long term impact on the appeal of our brands, which would diminish demand for vacations on our vessels. We cannot predict how long the negative impact of media attention on our brands will last, or the level of investment that will be required to address the concerns of potential travelers through marketing and pricing actions.
We have received, and may continue to receive, lawsuits, other governmental investigations and other actions stemming from COVID-19. We cannot predict the quantum or outcome of any such proceedings, some of which could result in the imposition of civil and criminal penalties in the future, and the impact that they will have on our financial results, but any such impact may be material. We also remain subject to extensive, complex, and closely monitored obligations under the court-ordered
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environmental compliance plan supervised by the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida, as a result of the previously disclosed settlement agreement relating to the violation of probation conditions for a plea agreement entered into by Princess Cruises and the U.S. Department of Justice in 2016. We remain fully committed to satisfying those obligations. COVID-19 presents enormous challenges for the Company, which could result in material adverse impacts.
We have insurance coverage for certain liabilities, costs and expenses related to COVID-19 through our participation in Protection and Indemnity (“P&I”) clubs, including coverage for direct and incremental costs including, but not limited to, certain quarantine expenses and for certain liabilities to passengers and crew. P&I clubs are mutual indemnity associations owned by members. There is a $10 million deductible per occurrence (meaning per outbreak on a particular ship). We cannot assure you that we will receive insurance proceeds that will compensate us fully for our liabilities, costs and expenses under these policies. We have no insurance coverage for loss of revenues or earnings from our ships or other operations.
We have a total of 16 cruise ships expected to be delivered through 2025, including several during the remainder of fiscal 2020. The effects of COVID-19 on the operations of shipyards where our ships are under construction will result in a delay in ship deliveries, which we cannot predict and may be prolonged.
We cannot predict when any of our ships will begin to sail again and ports will reopen to our ships. Moreover, even once travel advisories and restrictions are lifted, demand for cruises may remain weak for a significant length of time and we cannot predict if and when each brand will return to pre-outbreak demand or fare pricing. In particular, our bookings may be negatively impacted by the adverse changes in the perceived or actual economic climate, including higher unemployment rates, declines in income levels and loss of personal wealth resulting from the impact of COVID-19. In addition, we cannot predict the impact COVID-19 will have on our partners, such as travel agencies, suppliers and other vendors. We may be adversely impacted as a result of the adverse impact our partners suffer.
We have never previously experienced a complete cessation of our guest cruise operations, and as a consequence, our ability to be predictive regarding the impact of such a cessation on our brands and future prospects is uncertain. In particular, we cannot predict the impact on our financial performance and our cash flows required for cash refunds of deposits as a result of the pause in our global fleet cruise operations, which may be prolonged, and the public’s concern regarding the health and safety of travel, especially by cruise ship, and related decreases in demand for travel and cruising. Moreover, our ability to attract and retain guests and crew depends, in part, upon the perception and reputation of our company and our brands and the public’s concerns regarding the health and safety of travel generally, as well as regarding the cruising industry and our ships specifically. As a result, we expect a net loss on both a U.S. GAAP and adjusted basis for the second half of 2020, and our ability to forecast our cash inflows and additional capital needs is hampered.
As a result of all of the foregoing, we have raised, and may be required to further raise, additional capital. Our access to and cost of financing depend on, among other things, global economic conditions, conditions in the global financing markets, the availability of sufficient amounts of financing, our prospects and our credit ratings. As a result of COVID-19's effects on our liquidity, in May and June 2020, Moody's and S&P Global further downgraded our long-term issuer rating and our short-term rating, which prevents us from issuing additional commercial paper except for government-backed programs. In addition, our long-term ratings were placed on review for further downgrade by both rating agencies.
If our credit ratings were to be further downgraded, or general market conditions were to ascribe higher risk to our rating levels, our industry, or us, our access to capital and the cost of any debt financing will be further negatively impacted. In addition, the terms of future debt agreements could include more restrictive covenants, or require incremental collateral, which may further restrict our business operations or be unavailable due to our covenant restrictions then in effect. There is no guarantee that debt financings will be available in the future to fund our obligations, or that they will be available on terms consistent with our expectations. Additionally, the impact of COVID-19 on the financial markets is expected to adversely impact our ability to raise funds through equity financings.
In addition, the COVID-19 outbreak has significantly increased economic and demand uncertainty. The current outbreak and continued spread of COVID-19 could cause a global recession, which would have a further adverse impact on our financial condition and operations. In past recessions, demand for our cruise vacations has been significantly negatively impacted which has resulted in lower occupancy rates and adverse pricing, with a corresponding increase in the use of credits and other means to attract travelers. Current economic forecasts for significant increases in unemployment in the U.S. and other regions due to the adoption of social distancing and other policies to slow the spread of the virus is likely to have a negative impact on booking demand for our global fleet cruise operations once our operations resume, and these impacts could exist for an extensive period of time.
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The extent of the effects of the outbreak on our business and the cruising industry at large is highly uncertain and will ultimately depend on future developments, including, but not limited to, the duration and severity of the outbreak, the length of time it takes for demand and pricing to return and normal economic and operating conditions to resume. To the extent COVID-19 adversely affects our business, operations, financial condition and operating results, it may also have the effect of heightening many of the other risks described in Item 1A. “Risk Factors” included in our Form 10-K.
• Any potential government disaster relief assistance could impose significant limitations on our corporate activities and may not be on terms favorable to us .
If any government agrees to provide disaster relief assistance, it may impose certain requirements on the recipients of the aid including restrictions on executive officer compensation, share buybacks, dividends, prepayment of debt, incurrence of additional indebtedness and other similar restrictions until the aid is repaid or redeemed in full. We cannot assure you that any such government disaster relief assistance, if passed, will not significantly limit our corporate activities or be on terms that are favorable to us or at all. Such restrictions and terms could adversely impact our business and operations.
• Our substantial debt could adversely affect our financial health and operating flexibility .
We have a substantial amount of debt and significant debt service obligations.
Our substantial debt could have important negative consequences for us. Our substantial debt could:
◦ require us to dedicate a large portion of our cash flow from operations to service debt and fund repayments
on our debt, thereby reducing the availability of our cash flow to fund working capital, capital expenditures
and other general corporate purposes;
◦ increase our vulnerability to adverse general economic or industry conditions;
◦ limit our flexibility in planning for, or reacting to, changes in our business or the industry in which we operate;
◦ place us at a competitive disadvantage compared to our competitors that have less debt;
◦ make us more vulnerable to downturns in our business, the economy or the industry in which we operate;
◦ limit our ability to raise additional debt or equity capital in the future to satisfy our requirements relating to
working capital, capital expenditures, development projects, strategic initiatives or other purposes;
◦ restrict us from making strategic acquisitions, introducing new technologies or exploiting business
opportunities;
◦ make it difficult for us to satisfy our obligations with respect to our debt; and
◦ expose us to the risk of increased interest rates as certain of our borrowings are (and may be in the future) at
a variable rate of interest.
• Despite our leverage, we may incur more debt, which could adversely affect our business and prevent us from fulfilling our obligations with respect to our debt.
We may be able to incur substantial additional debt in the future. Although the instruments governing our existing indebtedness contain restrictions on the incurrence of additional debt, these restrictions are subject to a number of significant qualifications and exceptions, and under certain circumstances, the amount of debt that could be incurred in compliance with these restrictions could be substantial and a portion of such debt could be secured. The instruments governing our existing indebtedness do not prevent us from incurring liabilities that do not constitute “Indebtedness” as defined therein. If new debt is added to our existing debt levels, our business could be adversely affected which may prevent us from fulfilling our obligations with respect to our debt.
• We are subject to restrictive debt covenants that may limit our ability to finance future operations and capital needs and to pursue business opportunities and activities. In addition, if we fail to comply with any of these restrictions, it could have a material adverse effect on the Company .
The Secured Term Loan Facility, the indenture governing the 2023 Secured Notes, the Revolving Facility Agreement and certain of our other debt instruments limit our flexibility in operating our business. For example, the Secured Term Loan Facility and the indenture governing the 2023 Secured Notes restrict or limit the ability of Carnival Corporation, Carnival plc and certain of their respective subsidiaries to, among other things:
◦ incur or guarantee additional indebtedness;
◦ pay dividends or distributions on, or redeem or repurchase capital stock and make other restricted payments;
◦ make certain investments;
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◦ consummate certain asset sales;
◦ engage in certain transactions with affiliates;
◦ grant or assume certain liens; and
◦ consolidate, merge or transfer all or substantially all of our assets.
All of these limitations are subject to significant exceptions and qualifications. Despite these exceptions and qualifications, we cannot assure you that the operating and financial restrictions and covenants in our Secured Term Loan Facility, the indenture governing the 2023 Secured Notes, the Revolving Facility and certain of our other debt instruments will not adversely affect our ability to finance our future operations or capital needs or engage in other business activities that may be in our interest. Any future indebtedness may include similar or other restrictive terms. In addition, our ability to comply with these covenants, including financial covenants relating to our consolidated net interest, and restrictions may be affected by events beyond our control. These include prevailing economic, financial and industry conditions. If we breach any of these covenants or restrictions, we could be in default under the terms of our Secured Term Loan Facility, the indenture governing the 2023 Secured Notes, the Revolving Facility and certain of our other debt facilities and the relevant lenders could elect to declare the debt, together with accrued and unpaid interest and other fees, if any, immediately due and payable and proceed against any collateral, if any, securing that debt. If the debt under the Secured Term Loan Facility, the indenture governing the 2023 Secured Notes, the Revolving Facility or certain of our other debt instruments that we enter into were to be accelerated, our assets may be insufficient to repay in full our debt. Borrowings under other debt instruments that contain cross-default provisions also may be accelerated or become payable on demand. In these circumstances, our assets may not be sufficient to repay in full our indebtedness then outstanding.
• We require a significant amount of cash to service our debt and sustain our operations. Our ability to generate cash depends on many factors beyond our control, and we may not be able to generate cash required to service our debt .
Our ability to meet our debt service obligations or refinance our debt depends on our future operating and financial performance and ability to generate cash. This will be affected by our ability to successfully implement our business strategy, as well as general economic, financial, competitive, regulatory and other factors beyond our control, such as the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. If we cannot generate sufficient cash to meet our debt service obligations or fund our other business needs, we may, among other things, need to refinance all or a portion of our debt, obtain additional financing, delay planned capital expenditures or sell assets. We cannot assure you that we will be able to generate sufficient cash through any of the foregoing. If we are not able to refinance any of our debt, obtain additional financing or sell assets on commercially reasonable terms or at all, we may not be able to satisfy our obligations with respect to our debt. Refer to “Liquidity, Financial Condition and Capital Resources".
• Our variable rate indebtedness subjects us to interest rate risk, which could cause our debt service obligations to increase significantly .
Borrowings under the Secured Term Loan Facility, the Revolving Facility Agreement and certain of our other facilities are at variable rates of interest and expose us to interest rate risk. If interest rates increase, our debt service obligations on certain of our variable rate indebtedness will increase even though the amount borrowed remains the same, and our net income and cash flows, including cash available for servicing our indebtedness, will correspondingly decrease.
In addition, in July 2017, the United Kingdom's Financial Conduct Authority, which regulates the London Interbank Offered Rate (“LIBOR”), announced that it will no longer persuade or compel banks to submit LIBOR rates after 2021. It is unclear whether or not, at that time, LIBOR will cease to exist and a satisfactory replacement rate developed or if new methods of calculating LIBOR will be established such that it continues to exist after 2021. The U.S. Federal Reserve, in conjunction with the Alternative Reference Rates Committee, a steering committee comprised of, among other entities, large U.S. financial institutions, is considering replacing U.S. dollar LIBOR with a new index that measures the cost of borrowing cash overnight, backed by U.S. Treasury securities (“SOFR”). SOFR is observed and backward-looking, which stands in contrast with LIBOR under the current methodology, which is an estimated forward-looking rate and relies, to some degree, on the expert judgment of submitting panel members. Whether or not SOFR attains market traction as a LIBOR replacement rate remains in question. As such, the future of LIBOR at this time is uncertain. If LIBOR ceases to exist, the level of interest payments on the portion of our indebtedness that bears interest at variable rates would be affected, which may adversely impact the amount of our interest payments under such debt.
We have entered into, and in the future we will continue to enter into, interest rate swaps that involve the exchange of floating for fixed-rate interest payments to reduce interest rate volatility. However, we may not maintain interest rate swaps with respect to all of our variable rate indebtedness, and any such swaps may not fully mitigate our interest rate risk, may prove disadvantageous, or may create additional risks.
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• As a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, we have paused our guest cruise operations, and if we are unable to re-commence normal operations in the near-term, we may be out of compliance with a maintenance covenant in certain of our debt facilities as of May 31, 2021.
At May 31, 2020, we were in compliance with all of our debt covenants.
Under the terms of certain of our debt facilities, we are required to maintain minimum debt service coverage (EBITDA to consolidated net interest charges for the most recently ended four fiscal quarters) of not less than 3.0 to 1.0 at the end of each fiscal quarter. We have entered into supplemental agreements or side letters to amend our agreements with respect to this covenant to:
• Waive compliance, in conjunction with the Debt Holiday, for our export credit facilities through March 31, 2021, August 31, 2021 or December 31, 2021, as applicable. We will be required to comply beginning with the next testing date of May 31, 2021, November 30, 2021 or February 28, 2022, respectively.
• Waive compliance through November 30, 2021 for certain of our bank loans. We will be required to comply beginning with the next testing date of February 28, 2022.
• Waive compliance for the remaining applicable bank loans through their respective maturity dates.
Even though we have waivers in place with respect to this covenant, if we were unable to re-commence normal operations in the near term, we may be out of compliance with our minimum debt service coverage covenant as of May 31, 2021 or in future periods for certain agreements. If we expected to be out of compliance, we would again seek waivers from the lenders under the applicable facilities prior to any covenant violation.
Covenant waivers have led and may continue to lead to increased costs, increased interest rates, additional restrictive covenants and other available lender protections that would be applicable to us under these debt facilities, and such increased costs, restrictions and modifications may vary among debt facilities. Our ability to provide additional lender protections under these facilities, including the granting of security interests in collateral, will be limited by the restrictions in our indebtedness. There can be no assurance that we would be able to obtain waivers in a timely manner, on acceptable terms or at all. If we were not able to obtain a covenant waiver under any one or more of these debt facilities, we would be in default of such agreements, which could result in cross defaults to our other debt agreements. As a consequence, we would need to refinance or repay the applicable debt facility or facilities, and would be required to raise additional debt or equity capital, or divest assets, to refinance or repay such facility or facilities. If we were to be unable to obtain a covenant waiver under any one or more of these debt facilities, there can be no assurance that we would be able to raise sufficient debt or equity capital, or divest assets, to refinance or repay such facility or facilities.
With respect to each of these debt facilities, if we were not to obtain a waiver or refinance or repay such debt facilities, it would lead to an event of default under such facilities, which could lead to an acceleration of the indebtedness under such debt facilities. In turn, this would lead to an event of default and potential acceleration of amounts due under all of our outstanding debt and derivative contract payables. As a result, the failure to obtain the covenant waivers described above would have a material adverse effect.
• The covenants in certain of our debt facilities may require us to secure those facilities in the future.
Certain of our debt facilities contain provisions which may require that we provide a security interest in certain assets. In certain of our debt facilities, there is a requirement that if the credit rating of our senior indebtedness should fall below investment grade (which occurred on June 24, 2020) and at such time we have granted liens or security interests in respect of indebtedness in an amount exceeding 25% of our total assets (excluding for these purposes the value of any intangible assets) as shown in our most recent Consolidated Balance Sheet, then we will be required to provide a first-priority security interest in certain designated assets. In addition, under our export credit facilities, there is a requirement that if a security interest or lien is granted in respect of a vessel to secure borrowed money under certain other debt facilities, then a first-priority security interest will be required to be provided over certain designated vessels.
If the events described above were to occur, we may be unable to comply with this requirement and expect to seek waivers from the lenders under the relevant facilities. Any such waiver may lead to increased costs, increased interest rates, additional restrictive covenants and other available lender protections that would be applicable to us under these debt facilities, and such increased costs, restrictions and modifications may vary among debt facilities. Our ability to give additional lender protections under these facilities, including the granting of security interests in collateral, will be limited by the restrictions in our
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indebtedness and security interest we have already granted. If we were not able to obtain a waiver, the occurrence of such events may cause our level of secured indebtedness to increase substantially.