Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
ITEM 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
Market risk is the risk of loss from adverse changes in market prices and rates. Our market risk arises primarily from interest rate risk inherent in its lending, investment and deposit-taking activities. To that end, management actively monitors and manages its interest rate risk exposure.
Our profitability is affected by fluctuations in interest rates. A sudden and substantial change in interest rates may adversely impact our earnings to the extent that the interest rates borne by assets and liabilities do not change at the same speed, to the same extent or on the same basis. We monitor the impact of changes in interest rates on its net interest income using several tools.
Our primary objective in managing interest rate risk is to minimize the adverse impact of changes in interest rates on our net interest income and capital, while configuring our asset-liability structure to obtain the maximum yield-cost spread on that structure. We rely primarily on our asset-liability structure to control interest rate risk.
Interest Rate Sensitivity. Interest rate risk is the risk to earnings and value arising from changes in market interest rates. Interest rate risk arises from timing differences in the repricings and maturities of interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities (repricing risk), changes in the expected maturities of assets and liabilities arising from embedded options, such as borrowers’ ability to prepay home mortgage loans at any time and depositors’ ability to redeem certificates of deposit before maturity (option risk), changes in the shape of the yield curve where interest rates increase or decrease in a nonparallel fashion (yield curve risk), and changes in spread relationships between different yield curves, such as U.S. Treasuries (basis risk).
An asset sensitive position refers to a balance sheet position in which an increase in short-term interest rates is expected to generate higher net interest income, as rates earned on our interest-earning assets would reprice upward more quickly than rates paid on our interest-bearing liabilities, thus expanding our net interest margin. Conversely, a liability sensitive position refers to a balance sheet position in which an increase in short-term interest rates is expected to generate lower net interest income, as rates paid on our interest-bearing liabilities would reprice upward more quickly than rates earned on our interest-earning assets, thus compressing our net interest margin.
The Company actively manages its interest rate sensitivity position. The objectives of interest rate risk management are to control exposure of net interest income to risks associated with interest rate movements and to achieve sustainable growth in net interest income. The Company’s ALCO, using policies and procedures approved by the Company’s board of directors, is responsible for the management of the Company’s interest rate sensitivity position. The Company manages interest rate sensitivity by changing the mix, pricing and re-pricing characteristics of its assets and liabilities, through the management of its investment portfolio, its offerings of loan and selected deposit terms and through wholesale funding. Wholesale funding consists of, but is not limited to, multiple sources including borrowings with the FHLB of Chicago, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s discount window and certificates of deposit from institutional brokers.
The Company uses several tools to manage its interest rate risk including interest rate sensitivity analysis, or gap analysis, market value of portfolio equity analysis, interest rate simulations under various rate scenarios and net interest margin reports. The results of these reports are compared to limits established by the Company’s ALCO policies and appropriate adjustments are made if the results are outside the established limits.
There are an infinite number of potential interest rate scenarios, each of which can be accompanied by differing economic/political/regulatory climates; can generate multiple differing behavior patterns by markets, borrowers, depositors, etc.; and, can last for varying degrees of time. Therefore, by definition, interest rate risk sensitivity cannot be predicted with certainty. Accordingly, the Company’s interest rate risk measurement philosophy focuses on maintaining an appropriate balance between theoretical and practical scenarios; especially given the primary objective of the Company’s overall asset/liability management process is to facilitate meaningful strategy development and implementation.
Therefore, we model a set of interest rate scenarios capturing the financial effects of a range of plausible rate scenarios; the collective impact of which will enable the Company to clearly understand the nature and extent of its sensitivity to interest rate changes. Doing so necessitates an assessment of rate changes over varying time horizons and of varying/sufficient degrees such that the impact of embedded options within the balance sheet are sufficiently examined.
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The following tables demonstrate the annualized result of an interest rate simulation and the estimated effect that a parallel interest rate shift, or “shock,” in the yield curve and subjective adjustments in deposit pricing might have on the Company’s projected net interest income over the next 12 months.
This simulation assumes that there is no growth in interest-earning assets or interest-bearing liabilities over the next 12 months. The changes to net interest income shown below are in compliance with the Company’s policy guidelines.
As of June 30, 2024:
Change in Interest Rates
Percentage Change in
(in Basis Points)
Net Interest Income
+400
(9.0)%
+300
(6.3)%
+200
(4.2)%
+100
(1.9)%
-100
(1.4)%
As of December 31, 2023:
Change in Interest Rates
Percentage Change in
(in Basis Points)
Net Interest Income
+400
0.1%
+300
0.1%
+200
0.1%
+100
0.2%
-100
(0.1)%
The increased sensitivity to changes in interest rates noted at June 30, 2024 was the result of management’s reconsideration of interest rate betas for its loan and deposit products during the second quarter of 2024.
Economic Value of Equity Analysis. We also analyze the sensitivity of the Company’s financial condition to changes in interest rates through our economic value of equity model. This analysis measures the difference between estimated changes in the present value of the Company’s assets and estimated changes in the present value of the Company’s liabilities assuming various changes in current interest rates. The Company’s economic value of equity analysis as of June 30, 2024 estimated that, in the event of an instantaneous 200 basis point increase in interest rates, the Company would experience a 0.64% increase in the economic value of equity. At the same date, our analysis estimated that, in the event of an instantaneous 100 basis point decrease in interest rates, the Company would experience a 1.90% decrease in the economic value of equity. The estimates of changes in the economic value of our equity require us to make certain assumptions including loan and mortgage-related investment prepayment speeds, reinvestment rates, and deposit maturities and decay rates. These assumptions are inherently uncertain and, as a result, we cannot precisely predict the impact of changes in interest rates on the economic value of our equity. Although our economic value of equity analysis provides an indication of our interest rate risk exposure at a particular point in time, such estimates are not intended to, and do not, provide a precise forecast of the effect of changes in market interest rates on the economic value of our equity and will differ from actual results.
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Text extracted from the filing as submitted to EDGAR. Formatting, tables and exhibits are simplified for reading; the original document is authoritative for anything you rely on.