Item 1A. Risk Factors
ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS
In addition to the other information set forth in this Annual Report, you should carefully consider the following factors, which could materially adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations in future periods or our ability to meet our debt obligations. The risks described below are not the only risks facing our Company. Additional risks not currently known to us or that we currently deem to be immaterial also may materially adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations.
Risks Related to Our Lessees
Risks affecting the airline industry may materially adversely affect our customers.
We operate as a supplier to airlines and are indirectly impacted by all the risks facing airlines today. The ability of lessees to perform their obligations under the relevant lease depends on their financial condition, which may be affected by factors beyond our control, including:
• passenger and air cargo demand, fare levels and air cargo rates;
• operating costs, including the price and availability of jet fuel, labor costs and insurance costs and coverages;
• restrictions in labor contracts and labor difficulties, including pilot shortages;
• availability of financing, including covenants in financings, terms imposed by credit card issuers, collateral posting requirements contained in hedging contracts and the ability of airlines to make or refinance principal payments;
• economic conditions, including recession, financial system distress and currency fluctuations;
• aircraft accidents;
• the continuing availability of government support through subsidies, loans, guarantees, equity investments;
• changing political conditions, including risk of protectionism, travel restrictions, or trade barriers;
• geopolitical events, including war, terrorism, epidemic or pandemic diseases and natural disasters;
• impact of climate change and emissions on demand for air travel;
• cyber risk, including information hacking, viruses, ransomware and malware; and
• governmental regulation of, including noise regulations, emissions regulations, climate change initiatives, and aircraft age limitations.
These factors, and others, may lead to defaults by our customers, or may delay or prevent aircraft deliveries or transitions, result in payment or other lease term restructurings, may increase our costs from repossessions and reduce our revenues due to downtime or lower re-lease rates.
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Adverse currency movements could negatively impact the profitability of our lessees.
Many of our lessees are exposed to currency risk as they earn revenues in local currencies while a significant portion of their liabilities and expenses, including fuel, debt service, and lease payments are denominated in U.S. dollars. If the local currency is devalued, our lessees may not be able to increase revenue sufficiently to offset the impact of exchange rates on these expenses. Currency depreciation could impact the ability of customers to meet their contractual obligations in a timely manner. Shifts in foreign exchange rates can be significant, are difficult to predict, and can occur quickly.
Increases in fuel prices could negatively impact the profitability of our lessees.
Fuel costs represent a major expense to airlines and fluctuate widely. Airlines may not be able to successfully manage their exposure to fuel prices and significant changes could materially affect their operating results. Airlines may not be able to pass on increases in fuel prices to their customers by increasing fares. High fuel prices may also have an impact on consumer spending and adversely impact demand for air transportation.
Lessee defaults could materially adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.
Investors should expect some lessees to experience payment difficulties, particularly in difficult economic or operating environments. As a result of their financial condition and lack of liquidity, lessees may be significantly in arrears in their rental or maintenance payments. Liquidity issues are more likely to lead to airline failures in the periods of large air traffic declines, financial system distress, volatile fuel prices, and economic slowdown. Given the size of our aircraft portfolio, we expect that from time to time some lessees will be slow or will fail to make their payments in full under their leases.
We may not correctly assess the credit risk of a lessee or that risk could change over time. We may not be able to charge risk-adjusted lease rates, and lessees may not be able to continue to perform their financial and other obligations under our leases in the future. We may experience some level of delinquency under our leases and default levels may increase over time. A lessee may experience periodic difficulties that are not financial in nature, which could impair its performance of maintenance obligations under the leases. These difficulties may include the failure to perform required aircraft maintenance and labor-management disagreements or disputes.
In the event that a lessee defaults under a lease, any security deposit paid or letter of credit provided by the lessee may not be sufficient to cover the lessee’s outstanding or unpaid lease obligations and required maintenance and transition expenses.
Significant costs resulting from lease defaults could have a material adverse effect on our business.
While we have the right to repossess the aircraft and to exercise other remedies upon a lessee default, repossession of an aircraft could lead to significant costs for us. Those costs include legal and other expenses of court or other governmental proceedings, particularly if the lessee is contesting the proceedings, and costs to obtain possession and/or deregistration of the aircraft and flight and export permissions. Delays resulting from these proceedings would increase the period of time during which the aircraft is not generating revenue. We may incur maintenance, refurbishment or repair costs that a defaulting lessee has failed to incur or pay and that are necessary to put the aircraft in suitable condition for re-lease or sale. We may be required to pay off liens, claims, taxes and other governmental charges to obtain clear possession and to remarket the aircraft for re-lease or sale. We may also incur maintenance, storage or other costs while we have physical possession of the aircraft.
We may suffer other adverse consequences due to a lessee default and the repossession of the aircraft. Our rights upon a lessee default vary significantly depending upon the jurisdiction and may include the need to obtain a court order for repossession of the aircraft and/or consents for deregistration or re-export of the aircraft. When a defaulting lessee is in bankruptcy, protective administration, insolvency or similar proceedings, additional limitations may apply. Certain jurisdictions give rights to the trustee in bankruptcy or a similar officer to assume or reject the lease or to assign it to a third party, or entitle the lessee or another third party to retain possession of the aircraft without paying lease rentals or without performing all of the obligations under the lease. There can be no assurance that jurisdictions that have adopted the Cape Town Convention will enforce it as written. Certain of our lessees are owned in whole or in part by government-related entities, which could complicate our efforts to repossess the relevant aircraft. Accordingly, we may be delayed in, or prevented from, enforcing our rights under a lease and in re-leasing or selling the affected aircraft.
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If we repossess an aircraft, we may not necessarily be able to export or deregister and redeploy the aircraft. When a lessee or other operator flies only domestic routes, repossession may be more difficult, especially if the jurisdiction permits the lessee or the other operator to resist deregistration. Significant costs may also be incurred in retrieving or recreating aircraft records required for registration of the aircraft and obtaining a certificate of airworthiness. A default and exercise of remedies involving a lessee where we have a significant exposure or concentration risk could have a materially adverse impact on our future revenue and cash flows.
If our lessees encounter financial difficulties and we decide to restructure our leases with those lessees, this could result in less favorable leases and significant reductions in our cash flow.
When a lessee is late in making payments or fails to make payments in full, we may elect to or be required to restructure the lease. Restructuring may involve anything from a simple rescheduling of payments to the termination of a lease without receiving all the past due amounts. If requests for payment restructuring or rescheduling are granted, reduced or deferred rental payments may be payable over all or some part of the remaining term of the lease, and the terms of any revised payment schedules may be unfavorable or such payments may not be made. We may be unable to agree upon acceptable terms for any requested restructurings and as a result may be forced to exercise our remedies under those leases and we may be unable to repossess our aircraft on a timely basis. If we, in the exercise of our remedies, repossess the aircraft, we may not be able to re-lease the aircraft promptly at favorable rates, or at all.
The terms and conditions of payment restructurings or reschedulings, particularly involving lessees where we have significant exposure, may adversely affect our cash flows.
Airline reorganizations could have an adverse effect on our financial results.
As a result of economic conditions, airlines may be forced to reorganize. Bankruptcies and reduced demand may lead to the grounding of significant numbers of aircraft and negotiated reductions in aircraft lease rental rates, with the effect of depressing aircraft market values. Additional grounded aircraft and lower market values would adversely affect our ability to sell certain of our aircraft on favorable terms, or at all, or re-lease other aircraft at favorable rates comparable to the then current market conditions, which collectively would have an adverse effect on our financial results. We may not recover any of our claims or damages against an airline under bankruptcy or insolvency protection.
If our lessees fail to appropriately discharge aircraft liens, we might find it necessary to pay such claims.
In the normal course of business, liens that secure the payment of airport fees and taxes, custom duties, air navigation charges (including charges imposed by Eurocontrol), landing charges, crew wages, repairer’s charges, salvage or other liens, are likely, depending on the jurisdiction, to attach to the aircraft. These liens may secure substantial sums that may, in certain jurisdictions or for certain types of liens (particularly “fleet liens”), exceed the value of the relevant aircraft. Although the financial obligations relating to these liens are the responsibility of our lessees, if they fail to fulfill their obligations, these liens may attach to our aircraft and ultimately become our responsibility. Until these liens are discharged, we may be unable to repossess, re-lease or sell the aircraft or unable to avoid detention or forfeiture of the aircraft.
Our lessees may not comply with their obligations under their respective leases to discharge liens arising during the terms of their leases. If they do not do so, we may find it necessary to pay the claims secured by any liens in order to repossess the aircraft.
Risks associated with the concentration of our lessees in certain geographical regions could harm our business or financial results.
Through our lessees and the countries in which they operate, we are exposed to the specific conditions and associated risks of those particular jurisdictions. An adverse economic or political event in any region or country in which our lessees or our aircraft are concentrated could affect the ability of our lessees to meet their obligations to us or expose us to various legal or political risks associated with the affected jurisdictions, all of which could have a material and adverse effect on our financial results.
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Many of our lessees operate in emerging markets and we are indirectly subject to the economic and political risks associated with such markets.
Emerging markets may be more vulnerable to economic and political problems, such as significant fluctuations in gross domestic product, interest and currency exchange rates, government instability, nationalization and expropriation of private assets, unfavorable legal systems, change in law regarding recognition of contracts or ownership rights, changes in governments or government policy and the imposition of taxes or other charges by governments. The occurrence of these events may adversely affect our ownership interest in an aircraft or the ability of our lessees to meet their lease obligations. For the year ended February 28, 2023, 45 of our lessees, which operated 118 aircraft and generated 54% of our lease rental revenue, are domiciled or habitually based in emerging markets.
Risks Related to Our Aviation Assets
The variability of supply and demand for aircraft could depress lease rates for our aircraft.
The aircraft leasing and sales industry has experienced periods of aircraft oversupply. The oversupply of a specific type of aircraft in the market is likely to depress aircraft lease rates for, and the value of, that type of aircraft. The supply and demand for aircraft is affected by various cyclical and non-cyclical factors that are not under our control, including:
• passenger and air cargo demand;
• operating costs, including fuel costs, and general economic conditions affecting our lessees’ operations;
• foreign exchange rates;
• interest rates and the availability of capital to finance certain aircraft types;
• airline restructurings and bankruptcies;
• changes in control of, or restructurings of, other aircraft leasing companies;
• manufacturer production levels and technological innovation;
• new-entrant manufacturers, or existing manufacturers producing new aircraft models;
• geopolitical events, including war, prolonged armed conflict and acts of terrorism;
• governmental regulation, tariffs and other restrictions, such as sanctions, on trade or the leasing of aircraft;
• climate change initiatives, technological change, aircraft noise and emissions regulations, aircraft age limits and other factors leading to reduced demand for, early retirement or obsolescence of aircraft models;
• outbreaks of communicable diseases and natural disasters;
• reintroduction into service of aircraft previously grounded or in storage; and
• airport and air traffic control infrastructure constraints.
These and other factors may produce movements in aircraft values and lease rates, which would impact our cost of acquiring aircraft, or which may result in lease defaults or prevent aircraft from being re-leased or sold on favorable terms.
Other factors that could cause a decline in aircraft value and lease rates.
In addition to factors linked to the aviation industry generally, other factors that may affect the value and lease rates of our aircraft include:
• the age of the aircraft;
• the particular maintenance and operating history of the airframe and engines;
• the number of operators using that type of aircraft;
• whether the aircraft is subject to a lease and, if so, whether the lease terms are favorable to us;
• the demand for and availability of such aircraft;
• applicable airworthiness directives or manufacturer’s service bulletins that have not yet been performed;
• grounding orders or other regulatory action that could prevent or limit utilization of our aircraft;
• regulatory and legal requirements that must be satisfied before the aircraft can be purchased, sold or re-leased; and
• compatibility of our aircraft configurations or specifications with those desired by operators and financiers.
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Any decrease in the values of and lease rates for commercial aircraft which may result from the above factors or other unanticipated factors may have a material adverse effect on our financial results.
Climate change may have a long-term impact on our business.
There are inherent climate-related risks wherever our business is conducted. Changes in market dynamics, stakeholder and financier expectations, local, national and international climate change policies, all have the potential to disrupt our business and operations. Various countries, including the United States and countries in the European Union, have announced sustainability initiatives that, among other things, aim to reduce carbon emissions, explore sustainable aviation fuels and establish sustainability measures and targets. Climate and environmental objectives may impact the types of aircraft we target for investment and the demand for certain aircraft and engine types, and could result in a significant increase in our costs and expenses and adversely affect future revenue, cash flows and financial performance. Failure to address climate change could result in greater exposure to economic and other risks and impact our ability to adhere to developing climate goals.
The advent of superior aircraft technology and higher production levels could cause our existing aircraft portfolio to become outdated and therefore less desirable.
As manufacturers introduce technological innovations and new types of aircraft, including the Boeing 787, the Airbus A350, the Airbus A220 and re-engined models of the Boeing 737, Boeing 777, Airbus A320, Airbus A330 and Embraer E-Jet families of aircraft, certain aircraft in our existing aircraft portfolio may become less desirable to potential lessees or purchasers. This next generation of aircraft generally delivers improved fuel consumption and reduced noise and emissions with lower operating costs compared to prior-technology aircraft. The Boeing 787 and 737 MAX and the Airbus A350, A320neo and A220 are all currently in production. The Boeing 777X is expected to enter service in 2025. The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China Ltd. is developing aircraft models that will compete with the Airbus A320 family aircraft, the Boeing 737 and the Embraer E-Jet. The introduction of these new models and the potential resulting overcapacity in aircraft supply, could adversely affect the residual values and the lease rates for our aircraft, our ability to lease or sell our aircraft on favorable terms, or at all.
The effects of emissions and noise regulations and policies may negatively affect the airline industry. This may cause lessees to default on their lease payment obligations and may limit the market for certain aircraft in our portfolio.
Many governments have imposed limits on aircraft engine emissions, such as NOx, CO and CO 2 , consistent with current ICAO standards. In 2015, over 190 countries, including the United States, reached an agreement to reduce global GHG emissions at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The agreement does not expressly reference aviation, but if the agreement is implemented in the United States and other countries there could be an adverse effect on the aviation industry.
European countries have relatively strict environmental regulations that can restrict operational flexibility and decrease aircraft productivity. The E.U. has included the aviation sector in its emissions trading scheme (“ETS”) but its application to flights within the European Economic Area (“EEA”) deferred any further application until 2024, pending a review of the results of a new initiative introduced by the promulgated by ICAO. On December 6, 2022, a provisional agreement on the European Commission’s “Fit for 55” proposal was reached between the European Parliament and the European Council that will modify the ETS system by phasing out ETS allowances for the aviation sector by 2026. It remains to be seen how this agreement will be implemented and what effect, if any, this will have on our business.
In October 2016, ICAO adopted a global market-based measure to control CO 2 emissions from international aviation. This measure is the “Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (“CORSIA”) with the aim of achieving carbon-neutral growth from 2020 onwards. The CORSIA pilot phase (2021-2023) and the CORSIA first phase (2024-2026) will apply only to routes between countries that have each volunteered to participate in the scheme. All airlines that operate routes between two volunteering countries will be subject to the offsetting requirements. The requirement to offset emissions will be divided among airlines in proportion to their total CO 2 emissions, which is referred to as the “sectoral” approach to emissions. From 2030 onwards, this sectoral approach will transition to an approach based on each airline’s individual rate of growth.
Over time, it is possible that governments will adopt additional regulatory requirements and/or market-based policies to reduce emissions and noise levels from aircraft. Such initiatives may be based on concerns regarding climate change, energy security, public health, local impacts, or other factors, and may impact the global market for certain
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aircraft and cause behavioral shifts that result in decreased demand for air travel. These concerns could result in limitations on our customers’ operation of our fleet and our ability to lease or re-lease certain older mid-life aircraft, particularly aircraft equipped with older technology engines.
Compliance with current or future regulations could cause our lessees to incur higher costs and lead to higher ticket prices, which could mean lower demand for travel and adverse impacts on the financial condition of our lessees. Such compliance may also affect our lessees’ ability to make rental and other lease payments and limit the market for aircraft in our portfolio.
Public perception of the company’s commitment to positive ESG initiatives could expose us to additional risk.
Companies are facing increasing and frequently evolving scrutiny globally from customers, regulators, financiers, employees and other stakeholders related to their ESG practices and disclosure. There has been an increased expectation for the global aviation industry to balance commercial interests with conscientious ESG performance focused on accountability to stakeholders. In recognition of this trend, organizations are sometimes reviewed by rating agencies using varying sustainability evaluation criteria. In some cases, these reviews result in ESG-specific ratings. Institutions who invest in our unsecured notes or with whom we have secured lending facilities may also have an elevated focus on the ESG perception of those with whom they transact. Our ability to obtain financing at strategic rates could be impacted by these perceptions and ratings or by any developing key performance indicators which the Company and financiers may develop over time.
The older age of some of our aircraft may expose us to higher maintenance related expenses.
In general, the costs of operating an aircraft, including maintenance expenditures, increase with the age of the aircraft. Additionally, older aircraft typically are less fuel-efficient than newer aircraft and may be more difficult to re-lease or sell, particularly if, due to increasing production rates by aircraft manufacturers or airline insolvencies, older aircraft are competing with an excess of newer aircraft in the lease or sale market. Expenses like fuel, carbon charges, aging aircraft inspections, maintenance or modification programs and related airworthiness directives could make the operation of older aircraft less economically viable and may result in increased lessee defaults. We may also incur some of these increased maintenance expenses and regulatory costs upon acquisition or re-leasing of our aircraft. Re-leasing larger wide-body aircraft may result in higher reinvestment and maintenance expenditures than re-leasing narrow-body aircraft.
The concentration of aircraft or engine types in our portfolio could lead to adverse effects on our business should any difficulties specific to a particular type of aircraft or engine occur.
Our portfolio is concentrated in certain aircraft and engine types. The supply of commercial aircraft is dominated by Airbus and Boeing and there are a limited number of engine manufacturers. Should any aircraft or engine types or any manufacturers encounter disruptions, including supply chain issues, manufacturing and quality control issues, financial instability or other difficulties, it would cause a decrease in the value of these assets, an inability to lease them on favorable terms or at all, or a potential grounding of these aircraft or engines, which may adversely impact our financial results, to the extent the affected type comprises a significant percentage of our portfolio.
We operate in a highly competitive market for investment opportunities and for the leasing and sale of aircraft .
We compete with other lessors, airlines, aircraft manufacturers, financial institutions, aircraft brokers and other investors with respect to aircraft acquisitions, leasing and sales. The aircraft leasing industry is highly competitive and may be divided into three basic activities: (i) aircraft acquisition; (ii) leasing or re-leasing of aircraft; and (iii) aircraft sales.
A number of our competitors are substantially larger and have considerably greater financial, technical and marketing resources than we do. Some competitors may have a lower cost of funds and access to funding sources that are not available to us. In addition, some of our competitors may have higher risk tolerances, lower investment return expectations or different risk or residual value assessments, which could allow them to consider a wider variety of investments, establish more relationships, bid more aggressively on aviation assets available for sale and offer lower lease rates or sales prices than we can. Some of our competitors may provide financial services, maintenance services or other inducements to potential lessees or buyers that we cannot provide. As a result of competitive pressures, we may not be able to take advantage of attractive investment opportunities, and we may not be able to identify and make investments that are consistent with our investment objectives. Additionally, the barriers to entry in the aircraft acquisition and
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leasing market are comparatively low, and new entrants appear from time to time. We may not be able to compete effectively against present and future competitors in the aircraft acquisition, leasing or sales market.
Risks Related to Our Leases
If lessees are unable to fund their maintenance obligations on our aircraft, we may incur increased costs at the conclusion of the applicable lease.
The standards of maintenance observed by lessees and the condition of the aircraft may affect the future values and rental rates for our aircraft.
Under our leases, the lessee is responsible for maintaining the aircraft and complying with all governmental requirements applicable to the lessee and the aircraft, including, operational, maintenance, and registration requirements and airworthiness directives, although in certain cases we may agree to share certain of these costs. Failure of a lessee to perform required aircraft maintenance or required airworthiness directives could result in a decrease in value of such aircraft, an adverse effect on our ability to lease the aircraft at favorable rates or at all, or a potential grounding of such aircraft, and will likely require us to incur increased maintenance and modification costs upon the expiration or earlier termination of the applicable lease, which could be substantial, to restore such aircraft to an acceptable condition. If any of our aircraft are not subject to a lease, we would be required to bear the entire cost of maintaining that aircraft and performing any required airworthiness directives.
Many of our leases provide that the lessee is required to make periodic payments to us during the lease term to provide reserves for major maintenance events. In these leases there is an associated liability for us to reimburse the lessee after such maintenance is performed. A substantial number of our leases do not provide for any periodic maintenance reserve payments to be made to us. Typically, these lessees are required to make payments at the end of the lease term. However, in the event such lessees default, the value of the aircraft could be negatively affected by the maintenance condition and we may be required to fund the entire cost of performing major maintenance on the relevant aircraft without having received compensating maintenance payments from these lessees.
Even if we receive maintenance payments, these payments may not cover the entire expense of the scheduled maintenance they are intended to fund. In addition, maintenance payments typically cover only certain scheduled maintenance requirements and do not cover all required maintenance and all scheduled maintenance. As a result, we may incur unanticipated or significant costs at the conclusion of a lease.
Failure to pay certain potential additional operating costs could result in the grounding or arrest of our aircraft and prevent the re-lease, sale or other use of our aircraft.
As in the case of maintenance costs, we may incur other operational costs upon a lessee default or where the terms of the lease require us to pay a portion of those costs. Such costs include:
• the costs of casualty, liability and political risk insurance and the liability costs or losses when insurance coverage has not been or cannot be obtained as required, or is insufficient in amount or scope;
• the costs of licensing, exporting or importing an aircraft, airport charges, customs duties, air navigation charges, landing fees and similar governmental or quasi-governmental impositions, which can be substantial;
• penalties and costs associated with the failure of lessees to keep aircraft registered under all appropriate local requirements or obtain required governmental licenses, consents and approvals; and
• carbon taxes or other fees, taxes or costs imposed under emissions limitations, climate change regulations or other initiatives.
The failure to pay certain of these costs can result in liens on the aircraft. The failure to register the aircraft can result in a loss of insurance. These matters could result in the grounding or arrest of the aircraft and prevent the re-lease, sale or other use of the aircraft until the problem is cured.
Our lessees may have inadequate insurance coverage or fail to fulfill their respective indemnity obligations, which could result in us not being covered for claims asserted against us.
By virtue of holding title to the aircraft, lessors may be held strictly liable for losses resulting from the operation of aircraft or may be held liable for those losses based on other legal theories. Liability may be placed on an aircraft lessor in certain jurisdictions even under circumstances in which the lessor is not directly controlling the operation of the aircraft.
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Lessees are required under our leases to indemnify us for, and insure against, liabilities arising out of the use and operation of the aircraft, including third-party claims for death or injury to persons and damage to property for which we may be deemed liable. Lessees are required to maintain public liability, property damage and hull all risk and hull war risk insurance on the aircraft at agreed upon levels. However, they are not generally required to maintain political risk insurance. Following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, aviation insurers significantly reduced the amount of insurance coverage available to airlines for liability to persons other than employees or passengers for claims resulting from acts of terrorism, war or similar events. At the same time, they significantly increased the premiums for such third-party war risk and terrorism liability insurance and coverage in general. As a result, the amount of such third-party war risk and terrorism liability insurance that is commercially available at any time may be below the amount stipulated in our leases. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has also led insurers to reassess their coverage and significantly increase premiums.
Our lessees’ insurance (including any available governmental supplemental coverage) and our contingent and possessed insurance may not cover, or be sufficient to cover, all types of claims that may be asserted against us and recovery may also be subject to aggregate limits. Any inadequate insurance coverage or default by lessees in fulfilling their indemnification or insurance obligations will reduce the proceeds that would be received by us upon an event of loss under the respective leases or upon a claim under the relevant liability insurance.
Failure to obtain certain required licenses and approvals could negatively affect our ability to re-lease or sell aircraft.
A number of our lessees must obtain licenses, consents or approvals in order to import or operate the aircraft or comply with the leases. These include consents from governmental or regulatory authorities for certain payments under the leases and for the import, export or deregistration of the aircraft. Subsequent changes in applicable law or administrative practice may increase such requirements and a governmental consent, once given, might be withdrawn. Consents needed in connection with future re-leasing or sale of an aircraft may not be forthcoming. Any of these events could adversely affect our ability to re-lease or sell aircraft.
Risks Related to Our Operations
Events outside of our control, including the threat or realization of epidemic or pandemic diseases, terrorist attacks, war or armed hostilities between countries or non-state actors, and natural disasters may adversely affect the demand for air travel, the financial condition of our lessees and of the aviation industry more broadly, and may ultimately impact our business.
Air travel has historically been disrupted, sometimes severely, by the occurrence of unexpected events outside of our and our lessees’ control. The occurrence of any such event, or multiple such events, could cause our lessees to experience decreased passenger demand, to incur higher costs and to generate lower revenues, which could adversely affect their ability to make lease payments to us. This in turn may lead to lease restructurings and repossessions and could result in reductions to our lease revenues and cash flows, and cause us to record impairment charges to the extent we cannot recover our investment in our aircraft assets.
Passenger demand for air travel has been recently impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and, in the past, by other epidemic diseases such as severe acute respiratory syndrome, bird flu, swine flu, the Zika virus, and Ebola.
According to IATA, air travel approximated 85% of pre-pandemic levels as of February 28, 2023, compared to 55% as of February 28, 2022. If air traffic remains depressed over an extended period and if our customers are unable to obtain sufficient funds from private, government or other sources, we may need to provide lease concessions to certain customers in the form of deferrals or broader lease restructurings. We have also experienced and may still experience other impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic, including weaker demand for certain aircraft types and defaults, bankruptcies or reorganizations of our lessees. While we cannot currently reasonably estimate the extent to which these events will continue to impact our business, we expect our business, financial condition and results of operations will continue to be negatively impacted in the near term. Future epidemic diseases and other diseases, or the fear of such events could provoke responses that negatively affect passenger air travel.
The airline industry has also been disrupted by terrorist attacks, war or armed hostilities between countries or non-state actors, including the fear of such events. These events may lead to decreased passenger demand and revenue due to safety concerns, the inconvenience of additional security measures, the higher price of jet fuel, increased financing costs, and difficulty in raising funds on favorable terms, or at all. In addition, these events may lead to higher costs of aircraft
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insurance coverage for future claims caused by acts of war, terrorism, sabotage, hijacking and other similar perils, and affect the extent to which such insurance has been or will continue to be available. they may also lead to higher insurance costs due to the increased security measures and potential special charges, such as those related to the impairment of aircraft and other long lived assets stemming from the above conditions. More recently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and resulting sanctions by various countries, including the United States, countries in the E.U., and the U.K., have significantly affected our business, financial condition, and results of operations. The Russia invasion of Ukraine has and may continue to have adverse effects on macroeconomic conditions, including fuel prices, the availability and cost of insurance, security conditions, currency exchange rates and financial markets. It is not possible to predict the broader or longer-term consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which could include new or additional sanctions (including counter responses by the Russian government or other jurisdictions), embargoes, further escalation or regional instability, and geopolitical shifts. Such geopolitical instability and uncertainty could have a negative impact on our ability to lease aircraft, collect payments from, and support customers in certain regions based on trade restrictions, embargoes and export control law restrictions, and logistics restrictions including closures of air space, and could materially and adversely affect our business.
Demand for air travel or the inability of airlines to operate to or from certain regions due to the occurrence of natural disasters or other natural phenomena, such as severe weather conditions, floods, earthquakes or volcanic eruptions, could have an adverse effect on our lessees’ ability to satisfy their lease payment obligations to us.
Volatile financial market conditions may adversely impact our liquidity, our access to capital and our cost of capital and may adversely impact the airline industry and the financial condition of our lessees.
We may, from time to time, seek to opportunistically refinance, amend, re-price and/or otherwise replace any of our debt, obtain additional debt financing or enter into other financing arrangements, reduce or extend our debt, lower our interest payments or the cost of capital available to us under certain types of financing arrangements, or otherwise seek to improve our financial position or the terms of our debt or other financing agreements. These actions may include open market debt repurchases, negotiated repurchases, or other repayments, redemptions or retirements of our debt or other financing arrangements.
The amount of debt that may be borrowed or issued, refinanced, and/or repurchased, repaid, redeemed or otherwise retired, if any, will depend on market conditions, trading levels of our debt, our cash position, compliance with our debt covenants and other considerations. The availability and pricing of debt financing remains susceptible to global events, including political changes, rising interest rates, currency fluctuations, and the rate of international economic growth. If we need, but cannot obtain, adequate capital on satisfactory terms, or at all, as a result of negative conditions in the capital markets or otherwise, our business, financial condition and results of operations could be materially adversely affected.
We bear the risk of re-leasing and selling our aircraft.
We bear the risk of re-leasing or selling our aircraft in order to continue to generate cash flows. Only a portion of an aircraft’s value is covered by contractual cash flows from leases, so we are exposed to the risk that the residual value will not be sufficient to permit us to fully recover our investment and that we may have to record impairment charges. In certain cases we commit to purchase aircraft that are not subject to lease and therefore are subject to lease placement risk.
Other factors that may affect our ability to fully realize our investment in our aircraft and that may increase the likelihood of impairment charges include credit deterioration of a lessee, higher fuel prices which may reduce demand for older, less fuel-efficient aircraft, additional environmental regulations, age restrictions, customer preferences and other factors that may effectively shorten the useful life of older aircraft.
We own and lease long-lived assets and have written down the value of some of our assets. If market conditions worsen, or in the event of a customer default, we may be required to record further write-downs.
We perform an annual recoverability assessment of all aircraft in our fleet, on an aircraft-by-aircraft basis. A recoverability assessment is also performed whenever events or changes in circumstances, or indicators, suggest that the carrying amount or net book value of an asset may not be recoverable. Indicators may include, but are not limited to, a significant lease restructuring or early lease termination, a significant change in aircraft model’s storage levels, the introduction of newer technology aircraft or engines, an aircraft type that is no longer in production or significant airworthiness directive that is issued.
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When we perform a recoverability assessment, we measure whether the estimated future undiscounted net cash flows expected to be generated by the aircraft exceeds its net book value. We develop the assumptions used in the recoverability analysis based on current and future expectations of the global demand for a particular aircraft type and historical experience in the aircraft leasing market and aviation industry, as well as information received from third-party industry sources. The factors considered in estimating the undiscounted net cash flows are impacted by changes in future periods due to changes in projected lease rental and maintenance payments, residual values, economic conditions, technology, airline demand for a particular aircraft type and other factors, such as the location of the aircraft and accessibility to records and technical documentation. If our estimates or assumptions change, we may revise our cash flow assumptions and record future impairment charges.
We continue to closely monitor the impact of recent crises, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic, on our customers, air traffic, lease rental rates, and aircraft valuations, and have performed and will continue to perform additional customer and aircraft specific reviews should changes in facts and circumstances arise that may impact the recoverability of our aircraft. We have focused and will continue to focus on aircraft with near-term lease expirations, customers that have entered judicial insolvency proceedings and any additional customers that may become subject to similar-type proceedings, and certain other customers and aircraft variants that are more susceptible to the impact of these above crises and value deterioration.
Departure of key officers could harm our business and financial results.
Our senior management’s reputations and relationships with lessees, sellers, buyers and financiers of aircraft are a critical element of our business. We encounter intense competition for qualified employees from other companies in the aircraft leasing industry, and we believe there are only a limited number of available qualified executives in our industry. The Company seeks to retain a pipeline of senior management personnel with superior talent to provide continuity of succession, including for the Chief Executive Officer position and other senior positions. Our Board of Directors is involved in succession planning, including review of short- and long-term succession plans for senior positions. Our future success depends, to a significant extent, upon the continued service of our senior management personnel, including the Chief Executive Officer, and if we lose one or more of these individuals, our business could be adversely affected.
We are subject to risks related to our indebtedness that may limit our operational flexibility and our ability to compete with our competitors.
As of February 28, 2023, our total indebtedness was $4.6 billion, representing 71.1% of our total capitalization. Aircastle Limited is either the principal obligor or has guaranteed most of this indebtedness, and we are responsible for timely payment when due and compliance with covenants under the related debt documentation. We may be unable to generate sufficient cash to pay, when due, the principal of, interest on or other amounts due with respect to our indebtedness, and our substantial amount of indebtedness may increase our vulnerability to adverse economic and industry conditions, reduce our flexibility in planning for or reaction to changes in the business environment or in our business or industry, and adversely affect our cash flow and our ability to operate our business and compete with our competitors. Our indebtedness subjects us to certain risks, including:
• 16.7% of our Net Book Value serves as collateral for our secured indebtedness, and the terms of certain of our indebtedness require us to use proceeds from sales of certain aircraft, in part, to repay amounts outstanding under such indebtedness;
• our failure to comply with the terms of our indebtedness, including restrictive covenants, may result in additional interest being due or defaults that could result in the acceleration of the principal, and unpaid interest on, the defaulted debt, as well as the forfeiture of any aircraft pledged as collateral; and
• non-compliance with covenants prohibiting certain investments and other restricted payments, raise additional capital or refinance our existing debt, may reduce our operational flexibility and limit our ability to refinance.
Our ability to obtain debt financing and our cost of debt financing is, in part, dependent upon our credit ratings and a credit downgrade or being put on negative watch could adversely impact our financial results.
Maintaining our credit ratings depends on our financial results and on other factors, including the outlook of the ratings agencies on our sector and on the market generally. A credit rating downgrade or being put on negative watch may make it more difficult or costly for us to raise debt financing in the unsecured bond market, or may result in higher pricing or less favorable terms under other financings. Credit rating downgrades or being put on negative watch, may
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make it more difficult and/or more costly to satisfy our funding requirements. Any future tightening or regulation of financial institutions could impact our ability to raise funds in the commercial bank loan market in the future.
An increase in our borrowing costs may adversely affect our earnings.
We primarily finance our business through the issuance of Senior Notes. As our Senior Notes mature, we will be required to repay them by issuing new Senior Notes, which could result in higher borrowing costs, or repay them by using cash on hand or cash from the sale of our assets.
The provisions of our long-term financings require us to comply with financial and other covenants. Our compliance with these ratios, tests and covenants depends upon, among other things, the timely receipt of lease payments from our lessees and upon our overall financial performance.
• Senior Notes Our senior note indentures impose operating and financial restrictions on our activities. These restrictions limit our ability to, or in certain cases prohibit us from guaranteeing additional indebtedness, incurring liens and a cross-default to certain other financings of the Company.
• Term Financings. Our secured term financings contain, among other customary provisions, a minimum net worth covenant of $1.1 billion, a 2.0:1.0 minimum interest coverage ratio, a 2.0:1.0 minimum fixed coverage ratio, a 75% maximum loan-to-value ratio, a 2.0:1.0 EBITDA to cash interest ratio and a cross-default to certain other financings of the Company.
• Unsecured Revolving Credit Facilities. Our unsecured revolving credit facilities/loan contain $750 million to $1.1 billion minimum net worth covenants, minimum unencumbered asset ratios, minimum fixed coverage ratios and cross-defaults to certain other financings of the Company.
The terms of our financings also restrict our ability to incur or guarantee additional indebtedness or engage in mergers, amalgamations or consolidations among our subsidiary companies or between a subsidiary company and a third party or otherwise dispose of all or substantially all of our assets.
We are subject to various risks and requirements associated with transacting business in foreign jurisdictions.
The international nature of our business exposes us to trade and economic sanctions and other restrictions imposed by the U.S. and other governments. The U.S. Departments of Justice, Commerce and Treasury, as well as other agencies and authorities have a broad range of civil and criminal penalties, they may seek to impose against companies for violations of export controls, the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (“FCPA”), and other federal statutes, sanctions and regulations, including those established by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”). Increasingly, similar or more restrictive foreign laws, rules and regulations, including the U.K. Bribery Act (“UKBA”), and European laws and regulations may also apply to us. By virtue of these laws and regulations, we may be obliged to limit our business activities, we may incur costs for compliance programs and we may be subject to enforcement actions or penalties for noncompliance. In recent years, U.S. and foreign governments have increased their oversight and enforcement activities with respect to these laws, and we expect the relevant agencies to continue to increase these activities.
We have compliance policies and training programs in place for our employees with respect to FCPA, OFAC Regulations, UKBA and similar laws, but there can be no assurance that our employees, consultants or agents will not engage in conduct for which we may be held responsible. Violations of FCPA, OFAC Regulations, UKBA and other laws, sanctions or regulations may result in severe criminal or civil penalties, and we may be subject to other liabilities.
The General Data Protection Regulation (“GDPR”) requires us to protect certain personal data of E.U. citizens. While we have implemented processes and controls to comply with GDPR requirements, the manner in which the E.U. will interpret and enforce certain provisions remains unclear and we could incur significant fines of up to 4% of worldwide revenue, individual damages and reputational risks if the E.U. determines that our controls and processes are ineffective and we have failed to adequately comply with the requirements.
We are dependent upon information technology systems, which are subject to disruption, damage, failure and risks associated with implementation and integration.
We are dependent upon information technology systems to manage, process, store and transmit information associated with our operations, which may include proprietary business information and personally identifiable information of our customers, suppliers and employees. Our information technology systems are subject to disruption,
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damage or failure from a variety of sources, including malware, ransomware, security breaches, cyber-attacks, employee error and defects in design. There may also be an elevated risk of cyber-attacks by Russia in response to economic sanctions imposed by the U.S., the E.U., the U.K. and other countries resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Damage, disruption, or failure of information technology systems may result in interruptions to our operations or may require a significant investment to fix or replace them or may result in significant damage to our reputation. Although various measures have been implemented to manage our risks related to the information technology systems and network disruptions, our resources and technical sophistication may not be adequate to prevent all types of cyber-attacks that could lead to the payment of fraudulent claims, loss of sensitive information, including our own proprietary information or that of our customers, suppliers and employees, and could harm our reputation and result in lost revenues and additional costs and potential liabilities.
Risks Related to Our Organization and Structure
We are a holding company with no operations and rely on our operating subsidiaries to provide us with funds necessary to meet our financial obligations.
We are a holding company with no material direct operations. Our principal assets are the equity interests we directly or indirectly hold in our operating subsidiaries. As a result, we are dependent on loans, dividends and other payments from our subsidiaries to generate the funds necessary to meet our financial obligations. Although there are currently no material legal restrictions on our operating subsidiaries’ ability to distribute assets to us, legal restrictions, including governmental regulations and contractual obligations, could restrict or impair our operating subsidiaries’ ability to pay dividends or make loan or other distributions to us. Our subsidiaries are legally distinct from us and may be prohibited or restricted from paying dividends or otherwise making funds available to us under certain conditions.
Risks Related to Taxation
If Aircastle were treated as engaged in a trade or business in the United States, it would be subject to U.S. federal income taxation on a net income basis, which would adversely affect our business.
If, contrary to expectations, Aircastle were treated as engaged in a trade or business in the United States, the portion of its net income, if any, that was “effectively connected” with such trade or business would be subject to U.S. federal income taxation at a maximum rate of 35% for taxable years ending on or prior to December 31, 2017 and 21% for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2017 (such rate, the “Federal Rate”). In addition, Aircastle would be subject to the U.S. federal branch profits tax on its effectively connected earnings and profits at a rate of 30%. The imposition of such taxes would adversely affect our business.
The U.S. Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax (“AMT”) proposals may impact our effective tax rate in future periods.
On August 16, 2022, President Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (the “IRA”). The IRA includes a provision which imposes a 15% minimum tax on adjusted financial statement income (“AFSI”) for corporations. For a corporation that is a member of a foreign-parented multi-national group, the AMT applies where (i) the three-year average annual AFSI from all members of the foreign-parented multi-national group exceeds $1 billion, and (ii) the three-year average annual AFSI from the group’s U.S. corporation(s) is $100 million or more. There is currently limited guidance on the application and calculation of any AMT. This uncertainty will be addressed through regulations promulgated by the U.S. Treasury and guidance issued by the Internal Revenue Service. We currently do not expect these changes to have a material impact on our financial position; however, we will continue to evaluate the impact as further information becomes available.
If there is not sufficient trading in shares of our ultimate parent company, or if 50% of such shares are held by certain 5% shareholders, we could lose our eligibility for an exemption from U.S. federal income taxation on rental income from our aircraft used in “international traffic” and could be subject to U.S. federal income taxation, which would adversely affect our business.
We expect that we are currently eligible for an exemption under Section 883 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended (the “Code”), which provides an exemption from U.S. federal income taxation with respect to rental income derived from aircraft used in international traffic by certain foreign corporations. No assurances can be given that we will continue to be eligible for this exemption. To qualify for this exemption in respect of rental income, the lessor of the aircraft must be organized in a country that grants a comparable exemption to U.S. lessors (Bermuda and Ireland each do), and certain other requirements must be satisfied. We can satisfy these requirements in any year if, for more than half
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the days of such year, our shares are primarily and regularly traded on a recognized exchange and certain shareholders, each of whom owns 5% or more of our shares (applying certain attribution rules), do not collectively own more than 50% of our shares. Following the Merger, these stock ownership requirements are currently tested at the Marubeni and Mizuho Leasing levels such that Aircastle and its subsidiaries can continue to qualify for the Section 883 exemption if the stock of Marubeni is considered to be primarily and regularly traded on a recognized stock exchange and non-qualifying 5% or greater shareholders are not considered to collectively own more than 50% of Marubeni’s shares, as described above. If Marubeni’s shares cease to satisfy these requirements, then we may no longer be eligible for the Section 883 exemption with respect to rental income earned by aircraft used in international traffic. If we were not eligible for the exemption under Section 883 of the Code, we expect that the U.S. source rental income of Aircastle Bermuda generally would be subject to U.S. federal taxation, on a gross income basis, at a rate of not in excess of 4% as provided in Section 887 of the Code. If, contrary to expectations, Aircastle Bermuda did not comply with certain administrative guidelines of the Internal Revenue Service, such that 90% or more of Aircastle Bermuda’s U.S. source rental income were attributable to the activities of personnel based in the United States, Aircastle Bermuda’s U.S. source rental income would be treated as income effectively connected with the conduct of a trade or business in the United States. In such case, Aircastle Bermuda’s U.S. source rental income would be subject to U.S. federal income taxation on its net income at the Federal Rate as well as state and local taxation. In addition, Aircastle Bermuda would be subject to the U.S. federal branch profits tax on its effectively connected earnings and profits at a rate of 30%. The imposition of such taxes would adversely affect our business.
Bermuda Economic Substance Act 2018.
Pursuant to the Economic Substance Act 2018 (as amended) of Bermuda (the “ESA”) that came into force in January 2019, a registered entity other than an entity which is resident for tax purposes in certain jurisdictions outside Bermuda (“non-resident entity”) that carries on as a business any one or more of the “relevant activities” referred to in the ESA must comply with economic substance requirements. The ESA may require in-scope Bermuda entities which are engaged in such “relevant activities” to be directed and managed in Bermuda, have an adequate level of qualified employees in Bermuda, incur an adequate level of annual expenditure in Bermuda, maintain adequate physical presence in Bermuda or perform core income-generating activities in Bermuda. The list of “relevant activities” includes, among other things, carrying on any one or more of: insurance, financing and leasing (which excludes operating leases), headquarters, intellectual property and holding entities.
Entities subject to the economic substance requirements are required to evidence their compliance and file an economic substance declaration with the Registrar of Companies in Bermuda on an annual basis.
Any entity that must satisfy economic substance requirements but fails to do so could face financial penalties, a restriction of its business activities, automatic reporting by the Bermuda authorities to the competent authorities in the European Union or other jurisdiction of the entity’s beneficial owners, on an entity’s non-compliance or being struck-off as a registered entity in Bermuda. If any one of the foregoing were to occur it may adversely affect the business operations of the Company or its Bermuda subsidiaries.
The Company and its Bermuda subsidiaries believe they have complied with the ESA requirements and have filed, and will continue to file, annual economic substance declarations with the Registrar of Companies in Bermuda as required. The Registrar of Companies in Bermuda ultimately assesses compliance with the ESA requirements.
We may become subject to an increased rate of Irish taxation which would adversely affect our business.
Our Irish subsidiaries and affiliates are expected to be subject to corporation tax on their income from leasing, managing, and servicing aircraft at the 12.5% tax rate applicable to trading income. This expectation is based on certain assumptions, including that we will maintain at least the current level of our business operations in Ireland. If we are not successful in achieving trading status in Ireland, the non-trading income activities of our Irish subsidiaries and affiliates would be subject to tax at the rate of 25% and capital gains would be taxed at the rate of 33%.
We may become subject to income or other taxes in the non-U.S. jurisdictions in which our aircraft operate, where our lessees are located or where we perform certain services which would adversely affect our business.
Certain Aircastle entities are expected to be subject to the income tax laws of Ireland and the United States. In addition, we may be subject to income or other taxes in other jurisdictions by reason of our activities and operations, where our aircraft operate or where the lessees of our aircraft (or others in possession of our aircraft) are located.
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Although we have adopted operating procedures to reduce the exposure to such taxation, we may be subject to such taxes in the future and such taxes may be substantial. In addition, if we do not follow separate operating guidelines relating to managing a portion of our aircraft portfolio through offices in Ireland and Singapore, income from aircraft not owned in such jurisdictions would be subject to local tax. Changes in tax law could impose withholding taxes on lease payments during the term of a lease. Our leases typically require our lessees to indemnify us in respect of taxes, but some leases may not require such indemnification, or a lessee may fail to make such indemnification payment. The imposition of such taxes could adversely affect our business.
The introduction of Base Erosion and Profit Shifting by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development may impact our effective tax rate in future periods.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (the “OECD”) has introduced an action plan with respect to base erosion and profit shifting (“BEPS”). The plan targets among other things tax avoidance measures such as hybrid instruments, excessive interest deductions, treaty shopping, and permanent establishment avoidance.
As part of its BEPS actions, the OECD published the “Multilateral Convention to Implement Tax Treaty Related Measures to Prevent Base Erosion and Profit Shifting” (“MLI”). The MLI seeks to incorporate agreed tax treaty-related measures combating tax avoidance into bilateral existing tax treaties without the need to negotiate new treaties. The MLI may apply to double tax treaties entered into by other countries in which we have operations (in some cases with effect from as early as January 2019).
The MLI entered into force for Ireland in May 2019, and became effective for withholding tax on January 1, 2020. The MLI changed Ireland's treaties by including a principal purpose test (“PPT”), which will disallow treaty benefits where it is reasonable to conclude that the main purpose or one of the main purposes of a transaction or arrangement is to obtain directly or indirectly the benefits of the treaty. Given the subjectivity of the PPT, there is a risk that each counterparty jurisdiction will interpret it differently, which creates uncertainty in its application to leasing and other arrangements. Until such time as countries develop guidance on how the test will be applied, it will be difficult to determine its effect on us.
Ireland did not adopt the MLI’s “dependent agent” permanent establishment threshold. Some countries could seek a bilateral re-negotiation on the point to change the dependent agent provisions in their tax treaty with Ireland. Any such change could take some time to be agreed and subsequently ratified before it could come into effect.
Further changes to tax law will be required in order to fully implement the BEPS action plans. Currently, it is difficult to determine what further BEPS actions the governments of lessee jurisdictions will implement. Depending on the nature of the BEPS action plans adopted, it may result in an increase in our effective tax rate and cash taxes liabilities in future periods.
It is unclear what impact the OECD and the BEPS initiatives will have on our business.
On January 29, 2019, the OECD announced an initiative , to create an international consensus on new rules (referred to as “BEPS 2.0”) for the framework governing international taxation, which was supported by the publication of the Pillar One and Pillar Two Blueprint Reports (the “Blueprints”) on October 12, 2020. The stated aim is to move beyond the arm’s length principle and the scope of current taxing rights are limited to businesses with a physical presence in a country. The new rules, if adopted, would readjust the balance of taxing rights and multinational companies (“MNC”) profit allocation between jurisdictions where MNC assets are owned and the markets where users and consumers are based.
On October 8, 2021, 136 countries, including Ireland and Bermuda, approved a statement, known as the OECD BEPS Inclusive Framework (the “IF”), providing a framework for BEPS 2.0, which builds upon the Blueprints. The IF and revised Pillar Two Blueprint include a global minimum effective tax rate of 15% for groups with annual consolidated revenue in excess of €750 million, subject to certain exclusions. The OECD published detailed rules to assist in the implementation of the Pillar 2 rules involving 137 countries on December 20, 2021, and again on March 14, 2022. These detailed rules should allow some countries to introduce the Pillar 2 rules into domestic legislation during the course of 2023. On December 22, 2021, the European Commission published a proposed E.U. Directive to incorporate the Pillar 2 tax rules into E.U. law and has also issued further publications since that date. On December 12, 2022, the E.U. council unanimously agreed to adopt this Directive giving E.U. countries until December 31, 2023 to transpose the Directive into domestic legislation. Further guidance is expected from the OECD and the E.U. as to how certain aspects of the Pillar
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Two Blueprint and the Directive will operate mechanically, and as such it is difficult to determine the degree to which these changes may result in an increase in our effective tax rate and cash tax liabilities in future periods.
On March 12, 2022, the E.U. released the latest draft of the E.U. Directive to implement the OECD Pillar 2 model rules in the E.U. This draft includes a proposal to defer the transposition deadline to December 31, 2023 with the rules to become effective for fiscal years beginning as from this same date and an option for Member States to defer the application of the Income and Inclusion Rule and the Undertaxed Profit Rule (“UTPR”) even further provided that they host fewer than ten Ultimate Parent Entities of in-scope groups. The compromise text also proposes that the implementation of UTPR would be deferred so as to apply in respect of fiscal years beginning from December 31, 2024.
Given that the OECD and the E.U. are still developing their plans under BEPS 2.0 and the scope of many unilateral measures remain unclear, it is unclear what impact the eventual implementation of these plans will have on our business.
The E.U. Anti-tax Avoidance proposals may impact our effective rate of tax in future periods.
The Council of the E.U. has implemented the E.U. Anti-Tax Avoidance Directives (“E.U. ATAD”) and the amending Directive (“E.U. ATAD 2”). These Directives seek to oblige all E.U. member states to introduce a number of anti-tax avoidance measures.
Most of the measures were implemented with effect from January 2019, though certain measures may be deferred to 2024. The E.U. ATAD contemplates the introduction of a restriction on the deductibility of interest, measures in respect of certain hybrid transactions and instruments, an exit charge, a switch overrule, controlled foreign company rules as well as a general anti-avoidance rule.
The impact of the other measures in respect of certain hybrid transactions and instruments, an exit charge, a switch over rule, controlled foreign company rules as well as a general anti-avoidance rule will depend on the exact scope of these measures. The impact on the Company’s tax position (if any), will depend on the implementation of these measures in Ireland and other E.U. jurisdictions where we have operations.
The Irish Finance Bill published on October 21, 2021 included draft legislation to enact the interest limitation measures prescribed by ATAD. The implementation date for the new law was January 1, 2022. Based on the final legislation in Finance Act 2021 signed into law on December 21, 2021, the interest limitation rule will apply to limit the deductibility of a company’s exceeding borrowing costs (i.e. its interest (and equivalent) borrowing costs as reduced by its interest (and equivalent) income) to 30% of tax adjusted EBITDA. Importantly for companies carrying on a leasing trade, a portion of their operating lease income and expense will be treated as equivalent to interest for the purposes of the test. The legislation was finalized on December 21, 2021 and Irish Revenue released guidance on the application of these rules on August 4, 2022, and updated guidance in February 2023. We currently do not expect these interest limitation rules to have a material impact on our financial position.
On December 22, 2021, the European Commission issued a proposal for a Council Directive laying down rules to prevent the misuse of shell entities for tax purposes within the E.U. (“E.U. ATAD 3”) and has since issued a number of draft amendments. While E.U. ATAD 3 was initially expected to be adopted and published into E.U. member states’ national laws by June 30, 2023, and become effective as of January 1, 2024, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the development of the proposal and its implementation. One of the proposed amendments has been to delay the application of E.U. ATAD 3 to January 1, 2025. E.U. ATAD 3 could result in additional reporting and disclosure obligations.
On May 11, 2022, the European Commission issued a proposal for a Council Directive laying down rules providing for a debt-equity bias reduction allowance within the E.U. (“DEBRA”). DEBRA is intended to provide a notional interest deduction in respect of equity invested in a company, with the interest calculated based on the 10-year risk-free rate for the relevant currency, with the maximum deduction available limited to 30% of earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization. DEBRA is expected to be enacted into legislation in the coming years, but the timing and development of this legislation are uncertain. DEBRA could result in additional reporting and disclosure obligations.
ITEM 1B. UNRESOLVED STAFF COMMENTS
None.
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