Advanced Flower Capital Inc. 10-Q

Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk We are exposed to market risks in the ordinary course of our business. These risks primarily relate to fluctuations in interest rates. Our loans are typically valued using a yield analysis, which is typically performed for non-credit impaired loans to borrowers. Changes in market yields may change the fair value of certain of our loans. Generally, an increase in market yields may result in a decrease in the fair value of certain of our loans; however, this is mitigated to the extent our loans bear interest at a floating rate. As of June 30, 2023 , a decrease of 50 bps or increase of 50 bps of the market yield would have resulted in a change in unrealized gain (loss) of approximately $0.5 million and $(0.5) million, respectively. As of June 30, 2023 , we had six floating-rate loans, representing approximately 56% of our portfolio based on aggregate outstanding principal balances. These floating benchmark rates included one-month LIBOR subject to a weighted average floor of 1.0% and quoted at 5.2%, one-month SOFR subject to a weighted average floor of 1.0% and quoted at 5.1% and U.S. prime rate subject to a weighted average floor of 4.9% and quoted at 8.3%. We estimate that a hypothetical 100 basis points increase in the floating benchmark rate would result in an increase in annual interest income of approximately $2.2 million and a hypothetical 100 basis points decrease in the floating benchmark rate would result in a decrease in annual interest income of approximately $(2.2) million. 48 Index Potential Impact of LIBOR Transition As of June 30, 2023 , six of our loans, representing approximately 56% of our portfolio based on aggregate outstanding principal balances, paid interest at a variable rate tied to either LIBOR, SOFR, or U.S. prime rate. If one of these floating benchmarks are no longer available, our applicable loan documents generally include fallback provisions that allow us to choose a new index based upon comparable information. However, if each of these benchmarks are no longer available, we may need to renegotiate some of our agreements to determine a replacement index or rate of interest. As such, the potential effect of any such event on our cost of capital and net investment income cannot yet be determined and any changes to benchmark interest rates could increase our financing costs, which could impact our results of operations, cash flows and the market value of our loans. In addition, the elimination of LIBOR and/or changes to another index could result in mismatches with the interest rate of loans that we are financing. As of June 30, 2023 , only one of our loans paid interest at a variable rate tied to LIBOR, which was transitioned to one-month SOFR in July 2023 in accordance with the loan documents. We continue to monitor the transition guidance provided by the ARRC, the FASB and other relevant regulators, agencies and industry working groups, and we continue to engage with clients, lenders, market participants and other industry leaders as the transition from LIBOR progresses. Changes in Fair Value of Our Assets We generally hold our target investments as long-term loans; however, we may occasionally classify some of our loans as held for sale. We may carry our loans at fair value or carrying value in our consolidated balance sheet. As of June 30, 2023 and December 31, 2022 , three of our loans held for investment were carried at fair value within loans held at fair value in our consolidated balance sheets, with changes in fair value recorded through earnings. We evaluate our loans on a quarterly basis and fair value is determined by our Board through its independent Audit and Valuation Committee. We use an independent third-party valuation firm to provide input in the valuation of all of our unquoted investments, which we consider along with other various subjective and objective factors in making our evaluations. Our loans are typically valued using a yield analysis, which is typically performed for non-credit impaired loans to borrowers. To determine fair value using a yield analysis, a current price is imputed for the loan based upon an assessment of the expected market yield for a similarly structured loan with a similar level of risk. In the yield analysis, we consider the current contractual interest rate, the maturity and other terms of the loan relative to risk of the borrower and the specific loan. A key determinant of risk, among other things, is the leverage through the loan relative to the enterprise value of the borrower. As loans held by us are substantially illiquid with no active transaction market, we depend on primary market data, including newly funded loans, as well as secondary market data with respect to high-yield debt instruments and syndicated loans, as inputs in determining the appropriate market yield, as applicable. Changes in market yields may change the fair value of certain of our loans. Generally, an increase in market yields may result in a decrease in the fair value of certain of our loans; however, this is mitigated to the extent our loans bear interest at a floating rate. Due to the inherent uncertainty of determining the fair value of loans that do not have a readily available market value, the fair value of our loans may fluctuate from period to period. Additionally, the fair value of our loans may differ significantly from the values that would have been used had a ready market existed for such loans and may differ materially from the values that we may ultimately realize. Further, such loans are generally subject to legal and other restrictions on resale or otherwise are less liquid than publicly traded securities. If we were required to liquidate our investment in a loan in a forced or liquidation sale, we could realize significantly less than the value at which we had recorded such loan investment. Changes in Market Interest Rates and Effect on Net Interest Income Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors, including fiscal and monetary policies and domestic and international economic and political considerations, as well as other factors beyond our control. We are subject to interest rate risk in connection with our assets and our related financing obligations. 49 Index Our operating results depend in large part on differences between the income earned on our assets and our cost of borrowing. The cost of our borrowings generally will be based on prevailing market interest rates. During a period of rising interest rates, our borrowing costs generally will increase (a) while the yields earned on our leveraged fixed-rate loan assets will remain static, and (b) at a faster pace than the yields earned on our leveraged floating-rate loan assets, which could result in a decline in our net interest spread and net interest margin. The severity of any such decline would depend on our asset/liability composition at the time as well as the magnitude and duration of the interest rate increase. Further, an increase in short-term interest rates could also have a negative impact on the market value of our target investments. If any of these events happen, we could experience a decrease in net income or incur a net loss during these periods, which could adversely affect our liquidity and results of operations. Interest Rate Cap Risk Through our Manager, we originate both fixed and floating rate loans and going forward, we intend to have the majority of our loans by aggregate commitments accrue at floating rates. These are assets in which the loans may be subject to periodic and lifetime interest rate caps and floors, which limit the amount by which the asset’s interest yield may change during any given period. However, our borrowing costs pursuant to our financing agreements may not be subject to similar restrictions. Therefore, in a period of increasing interest rates, interest rate costs on our borrowings could increase without limitation by caps, while the interest-rate yields on our floating-rate assets would effectively be limited. In addition, floating-rate assets may be subject to periodic payment caps that result in some portion of the interest being deferred and added to the principal outstanding. This could result in our receipt of cash income from such assets in an amount that is less than the amount that we would need to pay the interest cost on our related borrowings. These factors could lower our net interest income or cause a net loss during periods of rising interest rates, which would harm our financial condition, cash flows and results of operations. Interest Rate Mismatch Risk We may fund a portion of our origination of loans, or of loans that we may in the future acquire, with borrowings that are based on various benchmarks, while the interest rates on these assets may be fixed or indexed to LIBOR, SOFR, U.S. prime rate, or another index rate. Accordingly, any increase in an index rate will generally result in an increase in our borrowing costs that would not be matched by fixed-rate interest earnings and may not be matched by a corresponding increase in floating-rate interest earnings. Any such interest rate mismatch could adversely affect our profitability, which may negatively impact distributions to our shareholders. Our analysis of risks is based on our Manager’s experience, estimates, models and assumptions. These analyses rely on models which utilize estimates of fair value and interest rate sensitivity. Actual economic conditions or implementation of decisions by our Manager and our management may produce results that differ significantly from the estimates and assumptions used in our models and the projected results. Credit Risk We are subject to varying degrees of credit risk in connection with our loans and interest receivable. Our Manager seeks to mitigate this risk by seeking to originate loans, and may in the future acquire loans, of higher quality at appropriate prices given anticipated and unanticipated losses, by employing a comprehensive review and selection process and by proactively monitoring originated and acquired loans. Nevertheless, unanticipated credit losses could occur that could adversely impact our operating results. We expect to be subject to varying degrees of credit risk in connection with holding our portfolio of loans. We will have exposure to credit risk on our commercial real estate loans and other targeted types of loans. Our Manager will seek to manage credit risk by performing deep credit fundamental analysis of potential assets and through the use of non-recourse financing, when and where available and appropriate. Credit risk will also be addressed through our Manager’s ongoing review, and loans will be monitored for variance from expected prepayments, defaults, severities, losses and cash flow on a quarterly basis. 50 Index Other than the acquisition of our initial portfolio of loans and certain loan commitments relating to Private Company A, we, through our Manager, have originated substantially all of our loans and intend to continue to originate our loans, but we have previously and may in the future acquire loans from time to time. Our Investment Guidelines are not subject to any limits or proportions with respect to the mix of target investments that we make or that we may in the future acquire other than as necessary to maintain our exemption from registration under the Investment Company Act and our qualification as a REIT. Our investment decisions will depend on prevailing market conditions and may change over time in response to opportunities available in different interest rate, economic and credit environments. As a result, we cannot predict the percentage of our capital that will be invested in any individual target investment at any given time. Our loan portfolio as of June 30, 2023 was concentrated with the top four borrowers representing approximately 74.9% of the aggregate outstanding principal balances and approximately 73.3% of the total loan commitments. Additionally, the industry is experiencing significant consolidation, which we expect to increase, among cannabis operations and certain of our borrowers may combine, increasing the concentration of our borrower portfolio with those consolidated operators. Our largest credit facility represented approximately 21.2% of the aggregate outstanding principal balances of our portfolio and approximately 20.6% of our total loan commitments as of June 30, 2023. The borrower under this credit facility is a Subsidiary of Public Company H, a multi-state operator with real estate assets in several states, certain of which have been included as collateral in connection with the senior term loan. Our portion of the senior term loan provided to such borrower has a principal amount of $84.0 million outstanding as of June 30, 2023, which is fully funded. This senior term loan accrues interest at a variable rate of U.S. prime rate plus 5.8%, subject to a U.S. prime rate floor of 5.5%. In June 2016, the FASB issued Accounting Standards Update (“ASU”) No. 2016-13, which replaced the incurred loss impairment methodology pursuant to GAAP with a methodology that reflects current expected credit losses (“CECL”) on both the outstanding balances and unfunded commitments on loans held for investment and requires consideration of a broader range of historical experience adjusted for current conditions and reasonable and supportable forecast information to inform credit loss estimates (the “CECL Reserve”). We adopted ASU No. 2016-13 as of July 31, 2020, the date of our commencement of operations. Subsequent period increases and decreases to expected credit losses impact earnings and are recorded within provision for current expected credit losses in our consolidated statement of operations. The CECL Reserve related to outstanding balances on loans held for investment required under ASU No. 2016-13 is a valuation account that is deducted from the amortized cost basis of our loans held at carrying value and loans receivable at carrying value in our consolidated balance sheet. The CECL Reserve related to unfunded commitments on loans held at carrying value is recorded within current expected credit loss reserve as a liability in our consolidated balance sheet. Refer to Note 6 within our unaudited interim consolidated financial statements titled “Current Expected Credit Losses” for more information on CECL. We primarily provide loans to companies operating in the cannabis industry which involves significant risks, including the risk of strict enforcement against our borrowers of the federal illegality of cannabis, our borrowers’ inability to renew or otherwise maintain their licenses or other requisite authorizations for their cannabis operations, and such loans lack of liquidity, and we could lose all or part of any of our loans. Our ability to grow or maintain our core business depends on state laws pertaining to the cannabis industry. New laws that are adverse to our borrowers may be enacted, and current favorable state or national laws or enforcement guidelines relating to cultivation, production and distribution of cannabis may be modified or eliminated in the future, which would impede our ability to grow and could materially adversely affect our business. Management’s plan to mitigate risks include monitoring the legal landscape as deemed appropriate. Also, should a loan default or otherwise be seized, we may be prohibited from owning cannabis assets and thus could not take possession of collateral, in which case we would look to sell the loan, which could result in us realizing a loss on the transaction. Real Estate Risk Commercial real estate loans are subject to volatility and may be affected adversely by a number of factors, including, but not limited to, national, regional and local economic conditions (which may be adversely affected by industry slowdowns and other factors); local real estate conditions; changes or continued weakness in specific industry segments; construction quality, age and design; demographic factors; and retroactive changes to building or similar codes. In addition, decreases in property values reduce the value of the collateral and the potential proceeds available to a borrower to repay the underlying loan or loans, as the case may be, which could also cause us to suffer losses. 51 Index Risk Management To the extent consistent with maintaining our REIT qualification and our exemption from registration under the Investment Company Act, we seek to manage risk exposure by closely monitoring our portfolio and actively managing financing, interest rate, credit, prepayment and convexity (a measure of the sensitivity of the duration of a loan to changes in interest rates) risks associated with holding our portfolio. Generally, with the guidance and experience of our Manager: • we manage our portfolio through an interactive process with our Manager and service our self-originated loans through our Manager’s servicer; • we invest in a mix of floating- and fixed-rate loans to mitigate the interest rate risk associated with the financing of our portfolio; • we actively employ portfolio-wide and asset-specific risk measurement and management processes in our daily operations, including utilizing our Manager’s risk management tools such as software and services licensed or purchased from third-parties and proprietary analytical methods developed by our Manager; and • we seek to manage credit risk through our due diligence process prior to origination or acquisition and through the use of non-recourse financing, when and where available and appropriate. In addition, with respect to any particular target investment, prior to origination or acquisition our Manager’s investment team evaluates, among other things, relative valuation, comparable company analysis, supply and demand trends, shape-of-yield curves, delinquency and default rates, recovery of various sectors and vintage of collateral.