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Dilution profile // every instrument, one screen, from SEC filings

X4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc (XFOR)

CIK 1501697 · all EDGAR filings →

Overall dilution risk
HIGHworst of 4 computed signals (offering ability)
= the worst band among the computed sub-ratings, no hidden weighting
Offering ability
HIGH$300M registered
= total registered offering amount from the fee exhibits of live registrations (bands: $1M / $20M)
one or more live registrations had no structured fee data, so the true total is AT LEAST this
Overhead supply
MEDIUMwarrants = 38% of O/S
= warrant shares outstanding divided by current shares outstanding (bands: 20% / 50%)
warrants only; converts, ATMs and equity lines are not in free structured data, so the true overhead is AT LEAST this
Historical dilution
LOW-40% O/S in 3y
= share count now vs 3 years ago (bands: 30% / 100%); a reverse split pushes this negative
a reverse-split-sized cliff is in this window; read the chart
Cash need
LOW~27.3 months of runway
= cash vs trailing operating burn (bands: 6mo / 24mo; positive operating CF = low)
the company itself flagged going-concern doubt

Same rating bands the category standard uses, but free, with the formula on the chip and the gaps in the data said out loud.

Shares outstanding over time

2020-11-022026-07-31

Latest: 99.1M shares as of Jul 31, 2026 (10-Q). Share count fell from 173.7M to 5.8M between Mar 20, 2025 and Apr 28, 2025, a pattern consistent with a reverse split (roughly 1-for-30); simultaneous issuance can skew the raw ratio, so confirm in the filings. The red bar marks the cliff.

Cash runway

Going-concern warning

auditor flagged substantial doubt

The company itself flagged going-concern doubt in a filing.

Full breakdown: cash runway tool · source filing →

Warrants

Warrants outstanding: 37.9M underlying shares, as reported Dec 31, 2025 (10-K).

Reported exercise price: $0.03 (aggregate figure as tagged; individual tranches vary).

Down-round (price protection) accounting has been tagged in this filer’s XBRL: some instrument carries repricing protection. Which tranche requires reading the exhibits.

Rough fully diluted estimate: 137.1M = 99.1M O/S + 37.9M warrant shares. An estimate, not a filing figure: it ignores converts, options and RSUs, and the two inputs carry different as-of dates.

Convertible notes

No convertible-note facts tagged in the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026. If convertible notes exist, their terms live in exhibit prose for this filer and are not parsed; absence of a tag is not proof of absence. The exhibits are the ground truth.

Fully diluted build-up

Shares outstanding plus every potential-share instrument the filer tagged in XBRL, each at its own as-of date. An estimate assembled from filed figures, not a filing figure itself.

Shares outstanding99.1MJul 31, 2026
+ Warrants (aggregate, as tagged) (if exercised)37.9MDec 31, 2025
Fully diluted estimate137.1M+38.3% vs O/S

Still excluded, because the filer does not tag them in countable form: employee options and RSUs, any instrument living only in exhibit prose, and instruments above missing a share count. Inputs carry different as-of dates, shown per row. Each figure traces to the tranche and note tables above and their cited filings.

Registrations and offerings

Registered offering capacity on live registrations: $300.0Mfrom the structured fee exhibits; registered is not remaining, takedowns are not subtracted

S-3May 6, 2026$300.0M registeredfiling →
S-3Sep 10, 2025no structured fee exhibit in this filing (predates fee-data XBRL or fee deferred)filing →
S-3Aug 14, 2023no structured fee exhibit in this filing (predates fee-data XBRL or fee deferred)filing →

Last 12 months: 3 executed · 2 registered.

EFFECTIVEMay 14, 2026SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT →
REGISTEREDMay 6, 2026S-3 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-3 →
EXECUTEDOct 24, 2025Shelf takedown priced — shares or notes (small-caps: usually shares; open the filing to confirm)424B5 →
EXECUTEDOct 23, 2025Shelf takedown priced — shares or notes (small-caps: usually shares; open the filing to confirm)424B5 →
UPDATESep 18, 2025Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3 →
EFFECTIVESep 17, 2025SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT →
REGISTEREDSep 10, 2025S-3 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-3 →
EXECUTEDAug 13, 2025Unregistered share sale disclosed (8-K item 3.02)8-K →
EXECUTEDAug 12, 2025Unregistered share sale disclosed (8-K item 3.02)8-K →
EXECUTEDJun 23, 2025Shelf takedown priced — shares or notes (small-caps: usually shares; open the filing to confirm)424B5 →
EFFECTIVEAug 24, 2023SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT →
REGISTEREDAug 14, 2023S-3 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-3 →

Full history and shelf status: offering checker · S-3 shelf checker

Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts and filing metadata, fetched live and cached briefly. Share counts are cover-page figures with their form named. Warrant tranches and convertible notes come from the dimensioned facts in the latest 10-Q/10-K instance document, exactly as the company tagged them; untagged tranches and notes are absent, not disproven. Nothing on this page is manually verified and nothing is behind a login: what free data supports is shown, what it cannot support is stated. Not investment advice.

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