Dilution profile // every instrument, one screen, from SEC filings

Valion Bio, Inc. (VBIO)

CIK 1787740 · all EDGAR filings →

Overall dilution risk
HIGHworst of 4 computed signals (offering ability)
= the worst band among the computed sub-ratings, no hidden weighting
Offering ability
HIGH$95.0M registered
= total registered offering amount from the fee exhibits of live registrations (bands: $1M / $20M)
registered capacity, not remaining: amounts already taken down are not subtracted yet
Overhead supply
HIGHwarrants = 280% of O/S
= warrant shares outstanding divided by current shares outstanding (bands: 20% / 50%)
warrants only; converts, ATMs and equity lines are not in free structured data, so the true overhead is AT LEAST this
Historical dilution
LOW-89% O/S in 3y
= share count now vs 3 years ago (bands: 30% / 100%); a reverse split pushes this negative
a reverse-split-sized cliff is in this window; read the chart
Cash need
MEDIUM~12.4 months of runway
= cash vs trailing operating burn (bands: 6mo / 24mo; positive operating CF = low)
the company itself flagged going-concern doubt

Same rating bands the category standard uses, but free, with the formula on the chip and the gaps in the data said out loud.

Shares outstanding over time

2022-05-102026-05-10

Latest: 3.2M shares as of May 10, 2026 (10-Q). Share count fell from 146.6M to 1.5M between Aug 10, 2023 and Nov 10, 2023, a pattern consistent with a reverse split (roughly 1-for-100); simultaneous issuance can skew the raw ratio, so confirm in the filings. The red bar marks the cliff.

Cash runway

Going-concern warning

auditor flagged substantial doubt

The company itself flagged going-concern doubt in a filing.

Full breakdown: cash runway tool · source filing →

Warrants

TrancheWarrantsExercise priceTermNotes
Note Offering Warrant4.6M$2.2315yFV $9.4M
Warrants Expiring December10203024.6M$2.231
Tranche Closing Warrants2.9M$2.2314yDOWN-ROUND
Warrants Expiring December10203012.9M$2.231
Prefunded Warrants437,012$0.0001FV $375,000
Warrants Expiring May142029415,589$14.45
Warrants Expiring September262030195,793$3.04
Warrants Expiring August212030188,842$3.04
Warrants Expiring July31203064,065$3.04
Warrants Expiring June25203061,287$3.04
Warrants Expiring August11202932,500$3.64
Fourth Tranche Closing32,249$3.256

Tranches exactly as the company dimensioned them in its 10-Q filed May 14, 2026. Groupings can overlap (a “Series E and F” row is not additive with a “Series E” row), so do not sum this column. A tranche the filer did not tag is absent here, not absent from the cap table. DOWN-ROUND = the filer tagged price-protection accounting scoped to that tranche.

Warrants outstanding: 9.0M underlying shares, as reported Mar 31, 2026 (10-Q).

Reported exercise price: $0.85 (aggregate figure as tagged; individual tranches vary).

Balance-sheet fair value of warrants: $70,000 as of May 31, 2024.

Down-round (price protection) accounting has been tagged in this filer’s XBRL: some instrument carries repricing protection. The tranche table above shows where the filer scoped it.

Rough fully diluted estimate: 12.2M = 3.2M O/S + 9.0M warrant shares. An estimate, not a filing figure: it ignores converts, options and RSUs, and the two inputs carry different as-of dates.

Convertible notes

NotePrincipalCarryingConv. priceRateIf converted
Convertible Note$16.3M$6.9M$2.2315%~7.3M sh

If every note above converted at its tagged price: ~7.3M new shares on 3.2M currently outstanding. An estimate from principal ÷ conversion price, with inputs carrying different as-of dates; make-whole adjustments, capped calls and partial repurchases are not modeled.

Notes exactly as the company dimensioned them in its 10-Q filed May 14, 2026. Principal is face amount as tagged, not what remains after repurchases unless the filer updated the tag. A note the filer did not dimension is absent here, not absent from the balance sheet; the exhibits stay the ground truth.

Fully diluted build-up

Shares outstanding plus every potential-share instrument the filer tagged in XBRL, each at its own as-of date. An estimate assembled from filed figures, not a filing figure itself.

Shares outstanding3.2MMay 10, 2026
+ Note Offering Warrant (if exercised)4.6MDec 9, 2025
+ Warrants Expiring December1020302 (if exercised)4.6MMar 31, 2026
+ Tranche Closing Warrants (if exercised)2.9MDec 11, 2025
+ Warrants Expiring December1020301 (if exercised)2.9MMar 31, 2026
+ Prefunded Warrants (if exercised)437,012Mar 31, 2026
+ Warrants Expiring May142029 (if exercised)415,589Mar 31, 2026
+ Warrants Expiring September262030 (if exercised)195,793Mar 31, 2026
+ Warrants Expiring August212030 (if exercised)188,842Mar 31, 2026
+ Warrants Expiring July312030 (if exercised)64,065Mar 31, 2026
+ Warrants Expiring June252030 (if exercised)61,287Mar 31, 2026
+ Warrants Expiring August112029 (if exercised)32,500Mar 31, 2026
+ Fourth Tranche Closing (if exercised)32,249Sep 26, 2025
+ Convertible Note (if fully converted)7.3MDec 9, 2025
Fully diluted estimate26.8M+738.2% vs O/S

Still excluded, because the filer does not tag them in countable form: employee options and RSUs, any instrument living only in exhibit prose, and instruments above missing a share count. Inputs carry different as-of dates, shown per row. Each figure traces to the tranche and note tables above and their cited filings.

Registrations and offerings

Registered offering capacity on live registrations: $95.0Mfrom the structured fee exhibits; registered is not remaining, takedowns are not subtracted

S-1Jul 17, 2026$31.0M registeredfiling →
S-1Apr 13, 2026$0.9M registeredfiling →
S-3Dec 29, 2025$63.1M registeredfiling →

Last 12 months: 4 executed · 6 registered.

EXECUTEDAug 6, 2026Unregistered share sale disclosed (8-K item 3.02)8-K
REGISTEREDJul 17, 2026S-1 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-1
EXECUTEDJun 18, 2026Unregistered share sale disclosed (8-K item 3.02)8-K
UPDATEApr 15, 2026Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3
EFFECTIVEApr 15, 2026SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT
REGISTEREDApr 13, 2026S-1 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-1
EXECUTEDFeb 9, 2026Unregistered share sale disclosed (8-K item 3.02)8-K
UPDATEJan 20, 2026Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3
UPDATEJan 20, 2026Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3
EFFECTIVEJan 16, 2026SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT
EFFECTIVEJan 16, 2026SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT
REGISTEREDDec 29, 2025S-3 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetS-3

Full history and shelf status: offering checker · S-3 shelf checker

Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts and filing metadata, fetched live and cached briefly. Share counts are cover-page figures with their form named. Warrant tranches and convertible notes come from the dimensioned facts in the latest 10-Q/10-K instance document, exactly as the company tagged them; untagged tranches and notes are absent, not disproven. Nothing on this page is manually verified and nothing is behind a login: what free data supports is shown, what it cannot support is stated. Not investment advice.

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