Is SUGP diluting shareholders?

Read three numbers together: shares outstanding over time (1.5M as of 2026-01-16), warrants that can convert into new shares (62,500 reported), and how much cash runway remains (~19.68394249123738 months). A company short on cash with live registrations is structurally likely to issue shares.

Where do these numbers come from?

SEC EDGAR only: the XBRL company-facts API for shares, warrants and cash, and filing metadata for registrations and pricings. Every figure shows its source form, and nothing here is estimated by us beyond the arithmetic stated next to it.

Why might a warrant tranche be missing from the table?

The tranche table is built from the dimensions the company tagged in its own 10-Q or 10-K XBRL. A tranche the filer chose not to dimension does not appear, and its absence proves nothing: the exhibits remain the ground truth. Everything shown carries the filing it came from.

Dilution profile // every instrument, one screen, from SEC filings

SU Group Holdings Ltd (SUGP)

CIK 1969863 · all EDGAR filings →

Overall dilution risk

HIGHworst of 4 computed signals (offering ability)

= the worst band among the computed sub-ratings, no hidden weighting

Offering ability

HIGH$147M registered

= total registered offering amount from the fee exhibits of live registrations (bands: $1M / $20M)

one or more live registrations had no structured fee data, so the true total is AT LEAST this

Overhead supply

LOWwarrants = 4% of O/S

= warrant shares outstanding divided by current shares outstanding (bands: 20% / 50%)

warrants only; converts, ATMs and equity lines are not in free structured data, so the true overhead is AT LEAST this

Historical dilution

LOW-89% O/S in 3y

= share count now vs 3 years ago (bands: 30% / 100%); a reverse split pushes this negative

a reverse-split-sized cliff is in this window; read the chart

Cash need

MEDIUM~19.7 months of runway

= cash vs trailing operating burn (bands: 6mo / 24mo; positive operating CF = low)

Same rating bands the category standard uses, but free, with the formula on the chip and the gaps in the data said out loud.

Shares outstanding over time

Latest: 1.5M shares as of Jan 16, 2026 (20-F). Share count fell from 13.8M to 1.5M between Jan 28, 2025 and Jan 16, 2026, a pattern consistent with a reverse split (roughly 1-for-9); simultaneous issuance can skew the raw ratio, so confirm in the filings. The red bar marks the cliff.

Cash runway

Funded — but tight

~20 months of cash · watch

Full breakdown: cash runway tool

Warrants

Warrants outstanding: 62,500 underlying shares, as reported Sep 30, 2025 (20-F).

Reported exercise price: $4 (aggregate figure as tagged; individual tranches vary).

Balance-sheet fair value of warrants: $116,815 as of Sep 30, 2025.

Rough fully diluted estimate: 1.5M = 1.5M O/S + 62,500 warrant shares. An estimate, not a filing figure: it ignores converts, options and RSUs, and the two inputs carry different as-of dates.

Convertible notes

The latest 10-Q/10-K instance document could not be checked just now, so nothing is shown rather than guessed. Try again shortly.

Fully diluted build-up

Shares outstanding plus every potential-share instrument the filer tagged in XBRL, each at its own as-of date. An estimate assembled from filed figures, not a filing figure itself.

Shares outstanding	1.5M	Jan 16, 2026
+ Warrants (aggregate, as tagged) (if exercised)	62,500	Sep 30, 2025
Fully diluted estimate	1.5M	+4.3% vs O/S

Still excluded, because the filer does not tag them in countable form: employee options and RSUs, any instrument living only in exhibit prose, and instruments above missing a share count. Inputs carry different as-of dates, shown per row. Each figure traces to the tranche and note tables above and their cited filings.

Registrations and offerings

Registered offering capacity on live registrations: $147.0Mfrom the structured fee exhibits; registered is not remaining, takedowns are not subtracted

F-1Jun 12, 2026$37.2M registeredfiling →

F-1Nov 28, 2025$109.8M registeredfiling →

F-3Feb 12, 2025no structured fee exhibit in this filing (predates fee-data XBRL or fee deferred)filing →

Last 12 months: 0 executed · 3 registered.

UPDATEJun 22, 2026Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3 →

EFFECTIVEJun 17, 2026SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT →

REGISTEREDJun 12, 2026F-1 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetF-1 →

UPDATEMay 12, 2026Prospectus update — often a resale registration, not necessarily new capital424B3 →

EFFECTIVEMay 4, 2026SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT →

EFFECTIVEApr 1, 2026SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT →

EFFECTIVEFeb 26, 2026SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT →

EFFECTIVEDec 30, 2025SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT →

REGISTEREDDec 22, 2025F-1/A registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetF-1/A →

REGISTEREDNov 28, 2025F-1 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetF-1 →

EFFECTIVEMar 5, 2025SEC declared a registration effective — selling can beginEFFECT →

REGISTEREDFeb 12, 2025F-3 registration — capacity to sell shares, not a sale yetF-3 →

Full history and shelf status: offering checker · S-3 shelf checker

Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts and filing metadata, fetched live and cached briefly. Share counts are cover-page figures with their form named. Warrant tranches and convertible notes come from the dimensioned facts in the latest 10-Q/10-K instance document, exactly as the company tagged them; untagged tranches and notes are absent, not disproven. Nothing on this page is manually verified and nothing is behind a login: what free data supports is shown, what it cannot support is stated. Not investment advice.

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