Tim Gebbie · 2026-08-23
A plain-English AI summary of what this paper means for investors — generated on demand from the abstract.
We consider reflexivity in hierarchical causal systems in which higher-level states constrain the lower-level dynamics that remain admissible [Wilcox and Gebbie (2014),Gebbie (2026)]. We ask how such state-dependent top-down constraints are realised when local activity is event driven while causal claims are made in calendar time. If an actor-conditioned constraint governs both the admissible event transitions and their timing, the event process is carried into calendar time by a state-dependent time change. If either the admissible constraint or the compatible timing law is not unique, the induced calendar-time causal law need not be unique even when the local event dynamics admit a Markov representation. Hierarchical causality keeps explicit the cross-level constraint and event coordination from which such a calendar-time law must be constructed. Within this hierarchical representation, reflexivity is the endogenous closure of the causal loop through state-dependent top-down constraint and an event-to-calendar time map.
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