The frontier of quantitative finance, in one feed. The newest peer-review-bound research from arXiv’s q-fin archive — trading and market microstructure, portfolio management, risk, pricing, and machine learning in markets — with titles, authors, and abstracts, linked straight to source. Updated continuously.
Stochastic calculus and the theory behind the models.
Bastien Baude, Vincent Danos, Hamza El Khalloufi
This work complements our previous paper, which studies borrower-side strategies in decentralized lending markets, by focusing on lender-side capital allocation. We consider a lender who seeks to allocate a fixed budget across multiple markets sharing the same supplied asset. Accounting for the impact of supplied capital on lending rates,…
Masato Hisakado, Takuya Kaneko
We study long-range correlated Wigner-type matrices built from row-independent stationary Gaussian sequences. For exponentially decaying (AR(1)) correlations, the bulk spectral density deforms from the semicircle law via an explicit combinatorial "hub" mechanism, yet we verify the flatness and decay hypotheses of the matrix-Dyson-equation…
Charles Clevenger, Xiang Wan
W-shaped smiles appear in near-expiry options around binary events such as earnings, and have been associated with bimodal risk-neutral densities. The three-parameter eSSVI slice cannot produce them. This paper defines WSVI, a parametric family for implied volatility that admits negative at-the-forward curvature and bimodal implied densit…
Tim Gebbie
We consider reflexivity in hierarchical causal systems in which higher-level states constrain the lower-level dynamics that remain admissible [Wilcox and Gebbie (2014),Gebbie (2026)]. We ask how such state-dependent top-down constraints are realised when local activity is event driven while causal claims are made in calendar time. If an a…
Dominik Manuel Buchegger, Lukas Gonon
Implied volatility surfaces summarise the option market and are central to many financial applications. Forecasting their future evolution requires modelling two-dimensional geometry, temporal dependence, and predictive uncertainty while preserving economic admissibility. We propose a conditional latent diffusion framework for generating …
Wenqing Zhang
We study discrete-time asset pricing with bid-ask spreads and model uncertainty. The family of probability measures enters the no-arbitrage condition through the union of its supports. In the single-period setting, we establish fundamental theorems of asset pricing with and without short-sale constraints. In the unconstrained market, no a…
Andrey Itkin
The Marketron model of \cite{HalperinItkin2025Mark} and its option pricing extension in \cite{HalperinItkinMarketron2} suffer from structural non-identifiability: an eighteen-parameter space traps solvers in suboptimal local minima and renders economic quantities unmeasurable. By removing exact scaling gauges and sign symmetries, freezing…
Lucas Carvalho
Hedge ratios, factor models and diversified portfolios all rest on an estimate of which firms move together. That estimate is not stable: firms migrate between the groupings the market treats as coherent, and when enough migrate the organizing axes of the cross-section turn. We measure the rate of that turning as the mean squared sine of …
Georgios Chionas, Charalampos Kleitsikas, Stefanos Leonardos, Leandro Sánchez-Betancourt +1
Automated market makers (AMMs) are a cornerstone of decentralised finance (DeFi). Constant product markets with concentrated liquidity, such as UniswapV3, are now a well-established design. In these markets, liquidity providers (LPs) face a sequential decision problem: they must decide when to rebalance their positions and which price ran…
Peter Carr, Stephan Sturm
We consider the question of the optimal timing of the sale of an asset with stochastic dynamics. Our analysis is based on the method of the distribution builder introduced by Sharpe, Goldstein and Blythe [SGB00] for the purpose of optimal portfolio selection. Instead of specifying a utility function or risk aversion coefficient, this tool…
Li Chen, Liang Wang, Weixuan Xia
We propose a novel valuation framework for contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds based on the issuing bank's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio, which is widely acknowledged as an indicator of a bank's solvency. Our approach develops a bivariate jump-diffusion model that captures the dynamic relationship linking the CET1 ratios, share prices…
Saad Mouti
We measure volatility roughness across asset classes using a common data infrastructure and pipeline. Our data covers 3,926 United States equities, 34 CME futures roots, rates, FX, and commodities, and options on 44 underlyings over 2010-2025. Realized volatility is rough everywhere. The class-median Hurst estimate ranges from $0.05$ (liv…
Hao Liu, Yang Liu, Zhenyu Shen
We study optimal investment for insurers managing participating (profit-sharing) contracts under probability distortion and probability benchmark (aspiration) constraints. The problem combines three theoretical complexities: (i) nonconcave effective utilities induced by embedded guarantees and surplus-sharing rules, (ii) probability weigh…
Jaegi Jeon, Jeonggyu Huh, Hyeng Keun Koo, Byung Hwa Lim
We develop a scalable adjoint-to-control framework for continuous-time portfolio choice under smooth pointwise constraints. A feasible direct-policy-optimization (DPO) policy supplies rollouts; after training, fixed-latent open-loop BPTT (OL-BPTT) yields first- and second-order pathwise sensitivities, whose conditional projections produce…
John Armstrong
Suppose there are $N$ heterogeneous agents in a market with idiosyncratic risks but no uninsurable systematic risk factors. These agents may agree arbitrary financial contracts with one another, subject to the condition that contracts are self-enforcing under coalitions of agents in a common state. We show that, under mild conditions, thi…
Paramahansa Pramanik, Michael Bowdin
We study dynamic physical hedging for insurers exposed jointly to catastrophe losses and stochastic reconstruction costs. Surplus evolves as a controlled jump diffusion whose loss amplitude combines marked catastrophe severity, an exogenous mean-reverting cost factor, and endogenous mitigation. We establish well-posedness, moment and stab…
Amy Oumayma Khaldoun
Narrow Uniswap v3 liquidity ranges resemble short dated options, and Panoptic's streaming premium echoes the short maturity concentration of Black-Scholes theta near the strike. This motivates a natural question: can implied volatility be extracted from Uniswap v3 and Panoptic using only on chain observables? A direct identification of th…
Sourav Majumdar
An investor may be optimistic about aggregate endowment growth at some times and pessimistic at others. The weight placed on her forecast in bond valuation can therefore vary across maturities. We study whether this maturity dependence disappears at the long end of the yield curve. In a two-investor Arrow--Debreu economy, physical extinct…
Hans Buehler, Blanka Horvath, Anastasis Kratsios
This article presents with DYSANOS the first generative market model for smooth SANOS option surfaces for all strikes and expiries which are free of static arbitrage. Our model is designed to generate entire paths of daily spot and option prices for years in the future. We present a robust and useful if somewhat simplistic baseline hidden…
Charlie Che, Pradeepta Das
We develop a geometric theory of arbitrage-free implied variance surface dynamics. Smile dynamics are formulated as transport flows on the admissible class of static-arbitrage-free surfaces: spot movements generate transport vector fields, and the transport velocity field v(k) unifies all classical stickiness regimes. The skew-stickiness …
Felix Sachse
We examine the shapes attainable by the forward and yield curve in the Hull-White model with Svensson-parameterized initial yield curves. For Nelson-Siegel-parameterized initial yield curves, we provide a complete classification of all attainable shapes and partition the parameter space and the state space according to these shapes. Our a…
Graeme Baker, Agostino Capponi
We calibrate credit default swaps and index tranches with elastically stopped Lévy processes: each firm defaults when the running supremum of a latent, spectrally positive distress process crosses an independent exponential barrier. This yields a Cox construction with totally inaccessible default times, while retaining the interpretabilit…
Fabio Baschetti, Alessandro Gnoatto, Athena Picarelli
The integration of weather-dependent renewable generation increases the volatility of residual demand and raises the value of dispatchable low-carbon flexibility. This paper studies the optimal operation of a load-following nuclear power plant owned by a producer that must balance stochastic residual demand while accounting for ramping li…
Rosanna Grassi, Caterina Pastorino, Pierpaolo Uberti
In this paper we investigate the information content of the lower part of the spectrum of financial correlation matrices, as a source of information on market synchronization. In a financial context, a classical application of Principal Component Analysis and Random Matrix Theory identifies the largest eigenvalues as indicators of dominan…
Julia Kończal, Rafał Połoczański
Cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) listed on European exchanges provide a regulated environment for studying intraday market anomalies. We study four Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs traded on Xetra and Nasdaq Stockholm over the period January 2024 - December 2025 using one-minute bars. As a benchmark, we adopt an extreme value theor…
Oleksii Mostovyi, Thaleia Zariphopoulou
Completely monotonic inverse marginal (CMIM) utilities, introduced in [MSZ24], constitute a tractable class of preferences that includes many of the most important utility functions used in mathematical finance, such as power and exponential utilities. In stochastically dominant markets, their Bernstein representation induces a hidden lin…
Miryana Grigorova, Ohood Aldalbahi
In this paper, we consider an optimal stopping problem with infinite horizon, non-negative pay-offs and non-linear evaluations $ρ_{S,τ}$ indexed by two indices: $S$ and $τ$, where $S$ is the time of evaluation and $τ$ is the time when the pay-off is revealed. The agent's stopping strategies are constrained to be in the set of so-called Be…
Yingli Wang, Yinhao Wu, Lingjiong Zhu
Hawkes-based microstructural foundations for rough volatility, leverage, and rough Heston-type limits were developed by El Euch et al. (2018, Finance Stoch., 22(2), 241--280) and connected to the affine rough Heston framework of El Euch and Rosenbaum (2019, Math. Finance, 29(1), 3--38). The rough Hawkes--Heston model with common price--vo…
Peter Cotton
We consider a market maker who can only obtain and dispose of inventory by responding to a sequence of sealed-bid enquiries, and whose customers arrive with imbalanced intent: sellers more often than buyers, or the reverse. Under the assumption that the best competing response is exponentially distributed around a commonly discerned fair …
Fabio Bellini, Felix-Benedikt Liebrich
We study Lambda-quantiles, a generalisation of classical quantiles in which the constant probability level $λ\in [0,1]$ is replaced by a functional parameter $Λ\colon \mathbb{R} \to [0,1]$. We consider the general case of non-monotone $Λ$, which arises naturally if closure properties of the class of corresponding Lambda-quantiles with res…
Jeonggyu Huh
Neural and numerical policy solvers can produce feasible controls even when the optimal rule and its binding constraints are unavailable. A primal-dual bracket certifies value loss, but it does not locate the optimal policy or explain which constraints genuinely bind. We show that, on the same declared simulation grid, one bracket can sup…
Wenyuan Li, Haoqi Lyu, Pengyu Wei
This article studies a dynamic corporate risk management problem by considering the decision-making of risk-averse managers who exert costly effort and select project risk. We study how a Value-at-Risk (VaR) constraint affects managerial decisions and the distribution of firm value when the manager's objective is non-concave with a fixed …
Yan Dolinsky
We study exponential-utility maximization for high-frequency trading in a discretized fractional Brownian motion model. Using spectral methods for stationary Gaussian sequences, we derive the asymptotic growth rate of the optimal certainty equivalent. We also show that the suitably rescaled optimal positions converge in finite-dimensional…
Pengbin Feng
We study a recoverable dynamic distress model for financial institutions connected by a weighted directed exposure network. Counterparty distress affects losses through cumulative occupation time, so institutions may subsequently recover. A \(K\)-factor representation of exposures, interpreted as a small number of dominant transmission ch…
Miquel Noguer i Alonso
This paper develops a unified mathematical theory of implied, local, and learned volatility surfaces. Total variance $w_t(k,τ)=τσ_t^2(k,τ)$ is an infinite-dimensional state constrained by positivity, calendar monotonicity, and the butterfly differential inequality. We establish the topology and tangent geometry of this arbitrage set and p…
Fusheng Luo
Financial sentiment classifiers are commonly evaluated against human labels, but strong linguistic performance does not necessarily imply economically useful return predictability. This study separates these questions through two experiments. First, we construct a unified three-class benchmark from five financial text datasets and compare…
Robert Jarrow, Jayen Tan
Fractional Brownian motion (fBm) exhibits attractive features for financial modeling, including long-range dependence, path roughness, and anomalous diffusion. However, its non-semimartingale nature precludes the use of conventional no-arbitrage approaches to option pricing. We address this limitation by introducing a time-changed fBm, ob…
Felix-Benedikt Liebrich
We revisit the ``collapse to the mean'' phenomenon, which refers to mild structural conditions, such as local linearity, that force a law-invariant functional $\ph$ defined on finite-mean random variables to depend solely on the expectation of its argument $X$, and not on any other distributional feature. Starting from a concise character…
Zachary Feinstein, Ionut Florescu, Sean O'Leary
Automated market makers (AMMs) are typically interpreted and evaluated as decentralized exchanges. Herein, we take the perspective envisioned by Balancer that an AMM can also be viewed as a portfolio technology that programmatically enforces an economic mandate. In particular, we follow the geometric mean market maker (G3M) invariant empl…
Carole Bernard, Silvana M. Pesenti
We introduce a framework for preference-robust decision making when preferences over risk are modelled through generalised distortion risk measures. Unlike distributional robustness, our approach addresses ambiguity in the risk functional itself. We construct ambiguity sets on distortion (weight) functions using the Wasserstein distance a…
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open-access interoperability. Paper metadata is sourced from the arXiv API; StockTools is not affiliated with or endorsed by arXiv. All rights to each paper remain with its authors. Educational only — not financial advice.