The frontier of quantitative finance, in one feed. The newest peer-review-bound research from arXiv’s q-fin archive — trading and market microstructure, portfolio management, risk, pricing, and machine learning in markets — with titles, authors, and abstracts, linked straight to source. Updated continuously.
Stochastic calculus and the theory behind the models.
Julius F. Bonart
Structural price diffusivity explains many empirical regularities of market impact including the ``square-root law'' and its crossover to a linear regime for low trading rates \citep{bonart2026diffusive}. One of its central predictions is that an information-neutral trading strategy generates a diffusive impact state. We microfound this r…
Yingli Wang, Wei Xu, Lingjiong Zhu
We provide an event-level Hawkes microfoundation for a multitype inverse-Gaussian stochastic clock. We show that the event counts and integrated intensities of nearly critical multivariate linear Hawkes processes converge jointly to a multivariate pure-jump subordinator when reproduction delays have finite mean and immigration is balanced…
Gechun Liang, Moris S. Strub, Yuwei Wang, Zhaojun Yang
We develop a framework for an investor who trades until she either reaches a financial goal or an exogenous deadline arrives. Analogous to utility functions over wealth, we measure satisfaction with the timing of reaching a goal by a discount function. For a continuous-time market where a stochastic factor drives the dynamics of stock pri…
Yang Liu, Qiuqi Wang, Yihan Wang
Risk evaluation under distributional ambiguity is central to decision making in finance, economics, and operations research. Wasserstein balls provide a natural way to describe uncertainty around a reference distribution. We solve a natural yet open problem of robust optimization for the class of distortion riskmetrics with Wasserstein di…
Zhaojie Ren, Sheng Wang, Tak Kwong Wong, Sheung Chi Phillip Yam
This article studies a retirement planning problem from a new perspective in which a retiree delegates an initial lump sum to a professional fund manager. The fund is managed dynamically to deliver lifelong benefits while satisfying a guarantee that, at all times, wealth remains above a prescribed solvency level and the benefit rate remai…
Paul McCloud
Entropic risk optimisation is a general framework for pricing and hedging financial derivatives in incomplete markets that can be used to decompose P&L into market and model risk contributions. When the prices are quadratic Gaussian, the coupled equations for price and hedge ratios are solved in closed form. This enables comprehensive ana…
Anjali Thawait
Market-regime models typically assume a finite set of discrete latent states. We examine whether high frequency limit-order-book dynamics exhibit distinct regime separation or apparent regimes result from discretising an underlying continuum, analysing deep limit-order book data for EURO STOXX 50 index futures across 987 clean trading day…
Gordan Žitković
Feller random measures generalize the Feller diffusion (the CIR process) by giving it memory. They arise as the scaling limits of nearly unstable Hawkes processes, and include the rough CIR process and its hyper-rough and discontinuous relatives. We show that every Feller random measure is the occupation measure of a Dawson--Watanabe supe…
Jun Maeda
We study when to buy a share that will later be sold optimally, when the price follows a geometric multi-skew Brownian motion whose skew levels model support and resistance. The reward for buying is the exit premium of the liquidation problem solved in a companion paper. This premium is strictly $r$-subharmonic inside the exit continuatio…
Jongbong An, Donghan Kim
We develop a price-based framework for stochastic portfolio theory in which trading strategies are generated from nominal price weights and evaluated relative to a price-weighted benchmark. Stock splits and reverse splits induce jumps in the generating weights without changing the value of existing investments. In a semimartingale market …
Zeyu Cao, Shaosai Huang
We determine the leading logarithmic asymptotics of the fixed-maturity right tail of the SABR model with $β\in(0,1)$ and absorption at zero, for every correlation $ρ\in(-1,1)$. If $P(k)$ is the probability that the terminal forward is at least $f_0e^k$, then $-k^{-2}\ln P(k)\to(1-β)^2/(2ν^2T(1-(ρ\wedge0)^2))$ as $k\to\infty$. For $ρ\ge0$ …
Marc da Costa Nunes
A cross-sectional signal is a forecast vector over $d$ assets at each date; demeaned and normalized, it is a point on a sphere. Its city is the direction of its time-averaged vector in a common target-aligned frame, a compressed summary. When is the angle between two cities a conservative estimate of the angle between the histories? For i…
Yuwei Wang, Hoi Ying Wong
We propose an interactive robo-advising framework that learns personalized risk preferences from scores provided by clients. The resulting preference-learning problem is closely related to inverse reinforcement learning (IRL), as the robo-advisor infers the client's latent reward specification from feedback. The robo-advisor interacts wit…
Solesne Bourguin, Daniel C. Schwarz
We give sufficient conditions ensuring that, at every fixed positive time, the scalar backward component of a Markovian forward-backward stochastic differential equation with multidimensional forward process admits a density with respect to Lebesgue measure. Existing density criteria for BSDEs often obtain Malliavin non-degeneracy through…
Masahiro Kato
This study considers the problem of portfolio choice, where we recommend a portfolio to an investor to maximize the expected utility of their wealth. Our goal is to construct an asymptotically optimal portfolio choice rule in terms of expected utility regret, the difference between the expected utility of an oracle investor and that achie…
Shuoqing Deng, Xin Zhang
We consider the distribution-constrained optimal stopping problem $\sup_{τ\sim μ} \mathbb E[B^*_τ]$, where $μ$ is a probability distribution on $\mathbb R_+$, and $(B^*_t)$ denotes the running maximum of a standard Brownian motion. This problem was introduced in Beiglbock et al. (PTRF, 2018), where a monotonicity principle is used to esta…
Nicolò Bonacorsi
Statistical validation takes time, and alpha can decay before the evidence justifies deployment. We quantify the surviving opportunity through Certified Alpha Capacity: the maximum expected value remaining under prescribed false-deployment and power constraints. In a canonical Gaussian experiment, we derive an exact certification frontier…
Tae Ung Gang, Donghan Kim
We study finite-horizon portfolio optimization with proportional transaction costs and trading opportunities arriving at the jump times of a Cox process. Borrowing and short-selling are prohibited, while utility functions need not be concave, increasing, or differentiable. The admissible class includes differentiable utilities with asympt…
Iosif Zimbidis, Ronnie Sircar
On April 20, 2020, the May front-month WTI oil futures contract, one day before its expiration date, opened near $\$17/$barrel and dropped far below zero in a single trading day, reaching an intraday low of $-\$40.32$ and settling at $-\$37.63$. Such market behavior was unforeseen at the time. This event, and the March 2022 nickel squeeze…
Balaji Ramachandran, Srikanth Iyer, Shashi Jain
Bank treasury portfolios must balance yield, liquidity, and interest-rate risk across bonds of different maturities. Static allocation rules are ill-suited to this task: portfolios concentrated in long-duration securities with no dynamic adjust- ment mechanism can accumulate large mark-to-market losses and liquidity stress under rising in…
Masaaki Fukasawa
We derive a short-maturity expansion for up-and-out put barrier option prices under continuous stochastic volatility when the strike and the barrier approach the spot at the diffusive scale. Assuming joint weak convergence of the normalized terminal return, the relative volatility fluctuation, and the running maximum, together with unifor…
Jongjin Park, David Criens, Hyungbin Park
This work studies the relationships among sublinear valuation rules, uncertainty structures, and local specifications in a time-homogeneous Markovian framework with killing. These objects are linked, under finiteness and locality of the upper generator and a Lyapunov condition, by three maps: robust valuation, globalization, and localizat…
Andrey Itkin
We model market impact as the response to submitted order flow net of counterflow from latent traders, activated when price displacements from the level that would prevail without the order exceed individual thresholds. Order flow depletes this pool, and a generalized Langevin equation governs its recovery over several time scales. Its me…
Frédéric Pauquay
We develop a non-perturbative framework for stochastic-volatility option pricing built on the two-particle-irreducible (2PI) effective action and the Dyson-Schwinger gap equations of quantum field theory. In log-price, log-volatility or Lamperti coordinates, the joint law of the state variables is approximated by a self-consistent Gaussia…
Hyoeun Lee, Kiseop Lee
We study the joint dynamics of the best bid and ask prices with a spread-gated Hawkes-flocking model. The model tracks four types of best-quote movements: spread-narrowing movements are switched off when the spread is at its one-tick minimum, and a cross-side excitation term, whose activation depends on the prevailing spread, links the tw…
Junkee Jeon, Takwon Kim, Jinwan Park, A. Max Reppen
We study a finite-horizon reversible investment problem in which a risk-neutral firm adjusts capacity at a proportional purchase cost and a lower salvage value under multi-factor geometric Brownian motion. Via the singular control--optimal switching correspondence, the marginal value of capacity solves a family of parabolic double-obstacl…
David Itkin, Leandro Sánchez-Betancourt
Hedging a derivative by trading the underlying asset changes the payoff that the hedging intended to replicate. We study this phenomenon when trading generates price impact and execution costs. In a binomial model, we characterize replication through a fixed-point equation. In continuous time, we derive a nonlinear pricing PDE whose impli…
Joel Pfeffer, J. M. Diederik Kruijssen, Florian Stecker, Steven N. Longmore
In quantitative finance, standard regression losses are misaligned with the economics of return prediction. As the conditional mean of financial log-returns is close to zero, symmetric losses such as the mean squared and mean absolute errors make the constant zero forecast a near-optimal solution, penalizing models with genuine but noisy …
Masaaki Fukasawa, Jun Maeda, Tatsuya Ogiwara
We study the short-maturity implied volatility and the skew stickiness ratio for baskets of assets with continuous, possibly rough, stochastic volatility. The fluctuation of the instantaneous basket variance has two sources: fluctuations of the constituent variances and fluctuations of the basket weights. We derive a near-the-money implie…
Jun Maeda
We solve the perpetual liquidation problem for a geometric multi-skew Brownian motion carrying local-time pushes upward at a support level and downward at a resistance level, a model of technical analysis that is Markov in the price alone. Three geometries arise, separated by a closed-form criterion: the continuation band lies below resis…
Nihat Çağrı Çalışkan
We ask whether transposition changes the stationary heavy tail of the co-moving recursion $\mathbf x_{t+1}=Q_tBQ_t^\top\mathbf x_t+Q_t\boldsymbolη_t$ in $d=3$. The model has independent Haar rotations, Gaussian body-frame noise with covariance $Σ$, and an explicit positive metric $\mathsf g$. The tail index $α_\star$ depends only on singu…
Florian Bourgey, Jim Gatheral
Building on the forest expansion of Alòs, Gatheral and Radoičić and on the explicit Bergomi-Guyon smile expansion derived by Bourgey and Gatheral (2026), we derive fixed-point approximations, in terms of the implied total variance at a small number of magic strikes, for the fair values of power payoff contracts; the variance and gamma con…
Hamed Amini, Zachary Feinstein
This paper introduces oracle-parametrized automated market makers (OP-AMMs), i.e., automated market makers whose quoted price depends jointly on the pool reserves and an external oracle price. In doing so, we extend the information-agnostic AMM framework to settings, such as tokenized securities, for which price discovery occurs off-chain…
Wenyuan Wang, Zuo Quan Xu, Kaixin Yan
We consider a problem of optimal proportional reinsurance-dividend distribution under a Brownian risk model, where both the drift and volatility coefficients are subject to endogenous regime-switching. Dividend payments are subject to fixed transaction costs. The problem is formulated as a two-dimensional stochastic control problem, and w…
Aleksandar Arandjelovic, Uwe Schmock
We study simple predictable processes whose coefficients are represented by neural networks. On finite measure spaces, we establish density results for neural networks in Orlicz spaces. For filtrations generated by a stochastic process, measurable random variables, including at stopping times, can be approximated by neural networks depend…
Florian Gach, Simon Hochgerner
This article is concerned with the asymptotic shape of quantile surfaces, defined as the set of quantiles at a given level $α$ generated by a controlled one-dimensional distribution. Specifically, when the distribution arises as a linear combination of log-normal random variables and the control is a vector of positive coefficients, we pr…
Santiago Garcia
The analytic tractability of affine pricing models is usually expressed through two complementary formulations: a coordinate-space pricing operator and an exponential-affine transform representation governed by generalized Riccati equations. We develop \emph{Affine Holonomy Group Quantization} (AHGQ) as a geometric framework in which thes…
Shaosai Huang
Reweighting a probability law by a positive numéraire and pushing forward the payoff-to-numéraire ratio yields the change-of-numéraire reweighting: the swap-rate law under the annuity measure, the numéraire-inversion involution of martingale optimal transport, and the population form of self-normalized importance sampling. We characterize…
Levin David Schwab
In a finite discrete-time market, trading decisions may be predictable with respect to a filtration that does not adapt asset prices. The first fundamental theorem then characterizes absence of arbitrage by measures under which the optional projection of discounted prices is a martingale. We examine the corresponding completeness question…
Arthur Steve Tchoneteck, Tingjia Zhang, Frederi Viens
Commodity option surfaces contain information beyond the at-the-money volatility level. We develop a surface-driven stochastic-volatility framework for soybean futures options using daily Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group Volatility Index (CME CVOL) indicators from October 2013 to August 2025. The ATM level and convexity are positive, rig…
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