The frontier of quantitative finance, in one feed. The newest peer-review-bound research from arXiv’s q-fin archive — trading and market microstructure, portfolio management, risk, pricing, and machine learning in markets — with titles, authors, and abstracts, linked straight to source. Updated continuously.
Derivatives, options, and asset pricing models.
Mohammad Abedi
Standard models of stock price dynamics and option valuation usually begin by postulating stochastic processes. This paper develops an entropic inference framework that derives these processes from information constraints. The key symmetry is that markets reward returns rather than price levels, which selects log price as the dynamical va…
Useong Shin
This paper extends the cap-axis integral diagnostic to general characteristic axes, measuring factor-model pricing errors as bridge-alpha curves. A predetermined characteristic order generates prefix portfolios; subtracting equal-exposure aggregate portfolios yields zero-investment bridges indexed by cutoff p. The null is a zero-curve res…
Chris Angstmann, Tim Gebbie
We derive an operational-time variance kernel for a latent-order-book reaction boundary and use it to separate three objects usually collapsed in calendar-time volatility models: a structural boundary cumulant, a clock projection, and a pricing-measure choice. The reaction boundary is the zero of a bid--ask imbalance field. For a locally …
Nicola Bartolini, Silvia Romagnoli, Amia Santini
Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) are bilateral over-the-counter contracts central to renewable energy financing. While their capacity to stabilise revenues and hedge price risk is well recognised, their OTC structure exposes both parties to counterparty credit risk. This is a dimension yet to be explored in the literature, particularly gi…
Nicola Bartolini, Silvia Romagnoli, Amia Santini
Renewable Power Purchase Agreements have become increasingly important instruments for supporting the energy transition, as they offer revenue stability to renewable energy producers and price certainty to electricity consumers. This paper develops a financial framework for the valuation and risk assessment of fixed-price renewable PPAs. …
Useong Shin
I propose a cap-axis integral diagnostic for factor-model evaluation. Low-dimensional factor models can improve the maximum-Sharpe frontier while leaving zero-alpha violations on economically fixed subspaces. The diagnostic studies one such subspace by lifting pricing errors into a bridge-alpha curve along the market-capitalization rank a…
Irene Aldridge
We estimate Kyle's (1985) price-impact coefficient $λ$ directly from daily equity order flow and test its ability to forecast the cross-section of subsequent stock returns. Using CRSP data from 2020 to 2025, we construct firm-month measures of signed order flow and two estimators of $\hatλ_{it}$: a within-month price-impact regression and…
Asef Yılkı
This paper proposes a novel asset pricing framework that augments large language model (LLM) embeddings of annual report disclosures with supply chain knowledge graph (KG) propagation. Using FinBERT embeddings of 10-K MD&A sections for 255 S&P 500 firms over 2011-2025, two sets of return predictors are constructed: direct LLM embeddings a…
Leif Andersen, Andrey Itkin, Rakhymzhan Kazbek
A flexible forward (FF) is a customized FX hedging instrument that guarantees a fixed exchange rate while letting the holder choose the delivery date within a pre-agreed window. It is therefore an American-style option on timing, and its valuation must respect the volatility skew of the underlying currency pair. We price FF contracts (and…
Elisa Alòs, Òscar Burés
In this paper, we present a numerical method for option pricing and the computation of Greeks under stochastic volatility Bachelier-type models, based on elementary linear algebra. The method allows option prices and Greeks to be computed for infinitely many strikes (within a range of convergence) by evaluating only a finite number of exp…
Yoonsik Hong, Diego Klabjan
Commodity futures can be represented hierarchically, with underlying assets at the upper level and individual futures contracts at the lower level. Entities at each level can be connected by edges reflecting inherent correlations, with cross-level edges capturing contract-to-underlying asset connections. Building on our observations of th…
Andrey Itkin
The Fokker-Planck equation is fundamental to statistical mechanics, yet in settings with multiple state variables, anisotropic (cross-) diffusion, and jumps, conventional discretizations frequently produce non-physical negative probability densities. Building on the operator approach of "A. Itkin, Pricing derivatives under Levy models. Mo…
Emiliano Papa
In this paper, we consider pricing a Bermudan swaption with a small number of exercise dates. We begin with the case of two exercise dates. In this limit, we show that the Bermudan price decomposes into the sum of short-dated European swaptions, setting an upper bound, minus a correction term. This correction is expressed as an integral i…
Vittorio Astarita, Giuseppe Guido, Sina Shaffiee Haghshenas, Sami Shaffiee Haghshenas
Intelligent transportation systems increasingly rely on decentralized mechanisms to allocate limited resources such as freight capacity, warehouse availability, charging infrastructure, and network bandwidth. Efficient allocation requires pricing mechanisms that adapt dynamically to demand while preserving system stability. This paper inv…
Useong Shin
Factor-model performance depends not only on the model but also on how test assets are constructed. We form characteristic-unsorted random portfolios from a broad CRSP universe and vary stock selection, initial weighting, holding, and rebalancing. Rankings shift materially: buy-and-hold favors FF5 and FF6, whereas daily constant-weighting…
Cosmin Borsa, Michael Ludkovski
Simulation based solvers for optimal stopping problems must discretize the stopping decision. Under classical dynamic programming, a coarse exercise grid with only a few stopping opportunities can materially undervalue the optimal expected reward, whereas on a very fine grid, approximation errors accumulate through the backward recursion.…
Santiago Garcia
We construct a lifted local Lie groupoid formulation of the Heston stochastic-volatility model and use it to give a geometric interpretation of its affine-transform structure. The construction extends the Group Quantization framework previoulsy applied to quadratic financial diffusion models. The purpose of this paper is not to propose a …
Tenghan Zhong
Short-dated index options make scheduled macro-announcement risk visible in market prices, but visibility does not imply identification: a flexible no-event surface fitted to event-spanning quotes can absorb event premia, while a jump calibrated without event-spanning quotes is unidentified. To separate the continuous surface from the sch…
Chris Angstmann, Tim Gebbie
We consider the role of a continuum operational time u and its mapping to calendar time t and how these relate to event time for option pricing problems. We derive option-pricing equations from an operational-time Markov lattice rather than from a calendar-time diffusion. The primitive model is a nearest-neighbour log-price lattice with s…
Mikhail Perepelitsa
This paper presents an open-economy macroeconomic equilibrium model for Proof-of-Stake (PoS) networks with fee-burn mechanics (EIP-1559) that formalizes the strategic interplay between a Kelly-optimizing rational institutional investor and a utility-driven retail consumer. We analyze network dynamics across two behavioral regimes. In The …
Desen Guo, Dan Pirjol, Lingjiong Zhu
We present a study of the leading-order asymptotics for VIX option prices in Bergomi models in the short-maturity and small volatility-of-volatility regimes. Both out-of-the-money (OTM) and at-the-money (ATM) asymptotics are considered for one-factor, two-factor Bergomi and $N$-factor models. The leading-order asymptotics are obtained in …
William H. Press, Alex Dannenberg
Q-variance (so-called) posits a statistical relationship $\mathbf{E}(σ^2 | z) = σ_0^2 + \tfrac{1}{2}z^2$ between an asset's volatility $σ^2$, as observed in a time interval $T$, and its (suitably scaled) return $z$ in the same interval. We here show that this relationship is {\em exactly equivalent} to to positing an Inverse Gamma probabi…
Mara Kalicanin Dimitrov, Ying Ni
We study Bermudan option pricing under the Gatheral Double Mean-Reverting (GDMR) stochastic volatility model. The model features a variance process together with a stochastic long-run mean variance process and allows Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV)-type exponents in the diffusion coefficients. This model is attractive since it provi…
Andrea Molent
This paper develops a valuation framework for guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefit (GLWB) contracts with long-term care (LTC) features when the reference fund follows exponential Levy dynamics and the short rate follows the Hull-White model. The contract combines financial guarantees, longevity protection, health-contingent LTC payments…
Abigail Anokyewaa Mensah, Ayush Jha, Hongwei Mei, Rui Wang +2
We develop a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE) framework for option pricing under joint stochastic volatility and jump dynamics, and evaluate its empirical content using the S&P500 index option contracts across three maturities. The framework is derived from the infinitesimal generator of an affine Lévy-type process and impleme…
Mindy L. Mallory
This paper estimates the carry embedded in listed IBIT options and compares it with the carry embedded in matched CME bitcoin futures. Put-call parity recovers an implied forward on the ETF; BlackRock's daily holdings file maps each ETF share into bitcoin units; and CME futures prices and BRRNY, a U.S. close bitcoin reference rate, provid…
Nunik Srikandi Putri, Ajay Kumar Verma, Neo Paul Lesupi
This study develops an integrated stochastic modeling framework for pricing short and medium-maturity equity options and assessing interest-rate risk using the Heston (1993), Bates (1996), and CIR (1985) models. We calibrate the Heston model using both the Lewis (2001) Fourier inversion and the Carr-Madan (1999) FFT approach, finding near…
Nicolas Langrené, Xiaolin Luo, Pavel V. Shevchenko, Ruiyi Zhang
In general, the pricing of variable annuities with guarantees can be done by solving the corresponding optimal stochastic control problem if the contract withdrawal strategy is assumed to be optimal. This is typically solved as a dynamic programming problem using deterministic grid methods, which become computationally infeasible for more…
Aaron Wizman, Gabriel Turinici, Gregory Merran
We study risk-neutral density extraction from short-dated option chains. As expiry approaches, option premia decline and bid--ask spreads can be large relative to prices, making mid quotes particularly uninformative. Stale or asynchronous quotes may also generate potential static arbitrages, rendering standard procedures infeasible or uns…
Fabien Le Floc'h
We present ThiopheneIV, a Black-Scholes implied-volatility solver with a monotone core and explicit production guards. The solver starts from the simple Choi-Huh-Su L3 lower-bound seed and applies three Euler-Chebyshev steps on a lower branch and three Halley steps on the remaining upper branch. We prove that, in exact arithmetic, the see…
Kirill Zernikov
This paper studies empirical deep hedging for S&P 500 index options under a local downside-shortfall reward. It moves beyond performance comparison by asking what the learned hedge does, when it fails, and whether it can be made auditable. TD3 agents are compared with a daily-updated Black-Scholes delta hedge on the same option episodes. …
Keiichi Morimoto, Akihiko Noda, Takenobu Yuki
This paper examines how wartime economic controls shaped stock-price formation in Japan from 1930 to 1943. We develop a four-portfolio asset-pricing model in which zaibatsu affiliation affects expected payoffs and the translation of valuations into economic scale through lower financing wedges. We then construct daily capitalization-weigh…
Fabien Le Floc'h
We present two explicit rational formulae for Bachelier, or normal, implied volatility. The formulae take the option price, forward, strike, and expiry as inputs and return the implied normal volatility without iteration. They follow the branch structure of LFK-4, but use the simpler near-the-money variable given by the absolute forward-s…
Christian P Fries
Monte-Carlo valuation engines can generate pathwise sensitivities of a derivative value with respect to a high-dimensional vector of model primitives. Hedge ratios with respect to market instruments are then linked to these primitive sensitivities by a pathwise linear relation. Solving this relation independently on every simulated path m…
Qinwen Zhu, Wen Chen, Nicolas Langrené
This paper develops a deep learning-based framework for pricing convertible bonds with path-dependent contractual features, namely downward conversion price reset and issuer call clauses under rolling-window trigger rules, which are widespread in the convertible bond market. We formulate the valuation problem as a path-dependent partial d…
Maksym Nechepurenko
Paper 1 of this research programme develops a resolution-aware risk-design framework for the simplest event-linked perpetual: a contract whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The instrument class is broader. Variants span conditional probabilities P(A|B), spreads p^A - p^B, weighted bask…
Irene Aldridge
This paper proposes an eigenvalue-based small-sample approximation of the celebrated Markov Chain Monte Carlo that delivers an invariant steady-state distribution that is consistent with traditional Monte Carlo methods. The proposed eigenvalue-based methodology reduces the number of paths required for Monte Carlo from as many as 1,000,000…
Yagiz Ihlamur, Ben Griffin, Rick Chen
Structured launch signals on Product Hunt contain statistically significant predictive information for Series A funding outcomes. We construct PHBench from 67,292 featured Product Hunt posts spanning 2019-2025, linked to Crunchbase funding records via deterministic domain matching, identifying 528 verified Series A raises within 18 months…
Raeid Saqur
We present fast-vollib, an open-source Python library that provides high-performance European option pricing, implied volatility (IV) computation, and Greeks under the Black-76, Black-Scholes, and Black-Scholes-Merton models. The library is designed as a drop-in alternative to the de-facto-standard py_vollib and py_vollib_vectorized packa…
Valentin Tissot-Daguette
We introduce the Local Occupied Volatility (LOV) model that sits between Dupire's local volatility and fully path-dependent dynamics. By design, the LOV model ensures automatic calibration to European vanilla options, while offering the flexibility to capture stylized facts of volatility or fit additional instruments. This is achieved by …
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