economy // the macro backdropSource: FRED · refreshed 6h

The numbers that move every market

Rates, inflation, jobs and the yield curve — the macro context behind any single stock, straight from the Federal Reserve’s public data. Free, no login.

Fed Funds Rate2026-09-01

3.75%

-0.47 pp YoY · The Fed’s policy rate — the anchor for borrowing costs across the economy.

10-Year Treasury2026-10-13

5.21%

+1.16 pp YoY · The benchmark long-term risk-free rate; moves mortgages and equity valuations.

Inflation (CPI, YoY)2026-09-01

3.72%

Consumer price inflation, year-over-year. The Fed targets ~2%.

Unemployment2026-09-01

4.20%

-0.20 pp YoY · Share of the labor force out of work. Rising fast can signal recession.

30-Yr Mortgage2026-10-08

7.40%

+1.06 pp YoY · Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate — a read on consumer borrowing costs.

10Y–2Y Spread2026-10-14

0.37 pp

-0.18 pp YoY · Yield-curve slope. Negative (inverted) has historically preceded recessions.

This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED® API Terms of Use30-year mortgage rate: Copyright, 2016, Freddie Mac. Reprinted with permission.

The yield curve, 1 month to 30 years

Oct 13, 2026Oct 10, 202510Y minus 2Y: +42 bp

Tenor	1M	1.5M	2M	3M	4M	6M	1Y	2Y	3Y	5Y	7Y	10Y	20Y	30Y
Yield	4.10	4.15	4.15	4.26	4.32	4.34	4.48	4.79	4.90	5.00	5.11	5.21	5.60	5.56
vs 1 year (bp)	-9	-1	+5	+24	+36	+53	+88	+127	+138	+135	+128	+116	+100	+93

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, par yields in percent, as published for Oct 13, 2026. A change of 1 bp is 0.01 percentage point.

Data from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: US government series in the public domain, plus the 30-year mortgage rate, which is Freddie Mac’s and reprinted with permission. Refreshed every few hours and shown with its observation date. The 10Y–2Y spread is a widely-watched recession signal, not a prediction. Educational only — not investment advice. See also our screener and crypto sections.