Win Rate

Win rate is the percentage of trades that close at a profit — and by itself it says nothing about whether a trader makes money. A 90% win rate loses money if the rare losers are big enough, and a 30% win rate prints money if the winners run far enough.

Win rate only means something next to the average win and average loss, which is exactly what the expectancy formula combines. High-win-rate styles (scalping, selling options) pair frequent small wins with occasional large losses; low-win-rate styles (trend following) grind through many small losses waiting for outsized winners. Both can work; both feel completely different to trade.