Worth Knowing · Wall Street Oddities

The "Super Bowl Indicator" claims that when a team from the old NFL wins, stocks rise that year, and when an old-AFL team wins, they fall. It ran hot through the 1980s and 90s, hitting roughly 70-80% accuracy — then cooled to a coin flip once people started paying attention. It’s become a textbook example of spurious correlation, not an actual signal.

Source: Wall Street Journal; finance textbooks on spurious correlationVerified 2026-07-10
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